U.S. Apartment Vacancies Hit 23-Year High of 7.8%, Reis Says
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By Hui-yong Yu Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. apartment vacancies rose to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, the highest since 1986, as rising unemployment reduced rental demand, Reis Inc. said. Actual rents paid by tenants, known as effective rents, declined 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the New York-based property research firm said in a report today. Asking rents, or what landlords sought, fell... [more]
By Hui-yong Yu Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. apartment vacancies rose to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, the highest since 1986, as rising unemployment reduced rental demand, Reis Inc. said. Actual rents paid by tenants, known as effective rents, declined 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the New York-based property research firm said in a report today. Asking rents, or what landlords sought, fell 1.8 percent from a year earlier. Job losses and falling wages are shrinking the pool of potential tenants. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in August, the highest since 1983, the Labor Department said Oct. 2. Vacancies “continued to rise despite what has traditionally been a strong leasing period for apartment properties,” Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis, said in a statement. “Given the inherent seasonality of rental and lease-up patterns we expect fourth-quarter figures to be even weaker, implying that we may break historic vacancy levels by year-end 2009.” The apartment vacancy rate was 7.7 percent in the second quarter and 6.2 percent in 2008’s third quarter, Reis said. Compared with the second quarter, asking rents fell 0.5 percent and effective rents fell 0.3 percent. New York’s Rate Falls New York’s vacancy rate fell to 2.9 percent in the third quarter from 3 percent in the second, as the end of summer brought an influx of tenants signing leases, Reis said. Effective rents dropped 0.9 percent from the prior quarter and were down 6.8 percent from a year earlier. “With New York being relatively more dependent on the still-embattled financial services sector, it may take a few more quarters before we see rents bottoming out” there, Calanog said. “We are on track for 2009 to register as the worst year in rent drops on record, far exceeding the historic 3.8 percent decline recorded in 2002.” New Haven, Connecticut, replaced New York as the city with the lowest vacancy rate, at 2.5 percent, partly due to the start of the academic year, said Reis. Yale University is located in New Haven. The Bloomberg REIT Apartment Index fell 17 percent including dividends during the past year, compared with a gain of 1 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The apartment REIT index has 13 members, including Equity Residential and AvalonBay Communities Inc. [less]
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The next survey in NYC is 2011 (it is done every 3 years), if it hits 5% then, goodbye to rent stabilization.
"if it hits 5% then, goodbye to rent stabilization."
you mean you will rent at mkt rate instead of keep on renting a stabilized unit? or that the city will scale down the program (not adding more stabilized units i guess, they cannot get rid of those already stabilized)?
do you know how common is for rent stabilized tenants to sublet to others at market rate? while say, living outside the city?
admin, you remember how the beautiful coach turns back into a pumpkin at midnight? And the liveried footmen turn into mice? Like that.
But the chance of > 5% is < 0%. [I failed Statistics 101.]
Yeah, you must have failed statistics to conclude the chance is less than 0%.
In 2008 the vacancy rate was 2.9% at the height of the housing boom, since then tens of thousands if new units are hitting the market, jobs have been lost, etc.
Who knows by 2011 when the survey is done but there is defintely some chance it hit 5%.
Note to admin: it goes away, all 1 million stabilized apartments go to free market. Wouldn't that be something.
I would say the chance of vacancy going higher then 5 percent is very high actually. Overpriced rentals job losses tens of thousands of new inventory= shit storm
Who doesn't know someone who is renting out rent stab apts? Both of the friends that I know of are in CA. So watch rent stab apts go to free market and the CA economy tanks even more. Ha.
"Who doesn't know someone who is renting out rent stab apts? "
if i do, they didn't tell me. that's why i asked how common is it. guess it's not such a difficult thing to control if the city wants to.
the city doesn't have the money to go track down the paperwork to prove it. that is why it is common.
It's up to the landlord, with a bunch of state regulations. The RS tenant can sublet under some conditions and per certain periods, and not for whatever amount they want. Landlords are pretty vigilant in monitoring occupancy and getting non-resident tenants out.