Everyone knows what to do except the politicians...
Started by Riversider
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 13573
Member since: Apr 2009
Discussion about
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33009113/site/14081545 JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well, it's-- you know, I think kind of a matter of probabilities. And-- I think we're in for some real rough sledding. I don't know quite how it's gonna come about. I really do think the recession is-- at least temporarily over. But we haven't-- addressed so many of our problems. And-- we are borrowing so much money that we can't... [more]
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33009113/site/14081545
JULIAN ROBERTSON: Well, it's-- you know, I think kind of a matter of probabilities. And-- I think we're in for some real rough sledding. I don't know quite how it's gonna come about. I really do think the recession is-- at least temporarily over. But we haven't-- addressed so many of our problems. And-- we are borrowing so much money that we can't possibly pay it back, unless the Chinese and Japanese buy our bond.
And if for some reason either from say outbreaks in Western Chin-- China, where-- they require-- help to put these problems down-- whether that or-- other things, maybe just a desire to not be paid in (UNINTEL) dollars. We've seen what's happening to the dollar. It's-- I think at the lowest point in-- of the year right now. Whether-- if they do stop, we're in terrible shape. And I think it's tragic that we've let ourselves be put in this position by our leadership.
And this is not the-- the current leadership, this is the leadership we've had for years. Who seems afraid to tell the people that we have problems. That-- that we've got to quit spending, cutback, start saving, and-- and-- and-- and-- scale backward. And-- until that happens, I don't think we're anywhere near out of the woods.
*************
Well, I-- I-- I think that-- it's almost Armageddon if the Chinese and Japanese don't buy our debt. I don't know where we could get the money. And-- maybe we-- end up printing it-- and-- taking-- a million dollar bill-- bill to the grocery-- shop, which you have to do now in Zimbabwe. But-- I-- I think we've let ourselves get in-- in terrible situation. And I think we ought to try to get out of it.
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
why don't you focus on your own problems. start with you math skills.
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Response by Riversider
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 13573
Member since: Apr 2009
cc.. make sure the think foil stays on. They can listen....
Last treasury auction of the week was a 10 year - was well received, non-direct (foreign) buying, - from memory - 47% . . . certainly within the recent acceptable range of interest in our paper. so far the Chinese et al are continuing to support our efforts here to bring our economy back form the brink. Will they do so forever? No, assuredly not. But if the plan - and there is a plan, you may not like it, or think it is a good one, but it exists - works, they won't have to. And then we will have walked the tightrope between a very big rock, and a very hard place. Remains to be seen of course, but there is a plan, and that auction last week shows that so far - the plan has a chance.
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Response by patient09
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008
Not quite, the 10yr auction was Wednesday and was pretty well received. Within a short period of time it was underwater. The 30yr auction was Thursday and was a mess. Sloppy bid-to-cover and sloppy tail. Entire Treasury curve went sellers and has not recovered. Treasuries had a very tough week and ended Friday on the lows of the week.
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
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have no idea which of you has got this right but sure would like to know.
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Response by patient09
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008
I do. I would just say trust me!. But it might give away too much detail!
P09, hasn't that been typical recently. They're willing to support/prop us for the shorter term but think we're going to be nasty ancient hags in the long term?
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Response by patient09
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
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AR: Yep, I kinda share that view and express it with the personal acct. Very comfortable parking money short term, but further out the curve, not so interested. In spite of the steepness of the curve, somewhere deep inside, I fear it could get steeper than anyone ever dreamed possible. However, those folks who buy into the Japan style, decade long deflation argument, have been nothing but right with respect to the 10yr sector for the last 2 years.
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
But deflation isn't sexy
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Response by Riversider
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 13573
Member since: Apr 2009
Thankfully you guys are staying on topic for once..
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Julian Robertson, founder of hedge- fund firm Tiger Management LLC, said he has made investments to hedge against the risk of foreign buyers pulling out of U.S. Treasury securities.
The former hedge-fund manager has been buying “curve caps,” an investment that acts like leveraged put options, on long-term government bonds, he said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
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Response by Riversider
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 13573
Member since: Apr 2009
They would insure us in the event of massive rate increases,” Robertson said.
Robertson, 77, has been saying the U.S. may face financial “Armageddon” if Japan and China don’t continue to purchase its bonds to finance the country’s deficit spending. The Treasury Department would be forced to raise interest rates to attract new investors, he said.
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
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Who do you favor this year post season, p09?
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Response by patient09
almost 17 years ago
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still like the yanks!
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Response by patient09
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008
time to put some porterhouses on the grill and pop the red. good night all.
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Response by liquidpaper
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009
cc - i would defer to patient on this topic. i remembered about the 10 year but was out of the office for Thurs & Fri and as I don't trade treasuries (or even fi) for a living I don't follow them as closely as it sounds like he does. Happy to be corrected here & thanks.
why don't you focus on your own problems. start with you math skills.
cc.. make sure the think foil stays on. They can listen....
gotta be a good youtube for that. one + one = ?
please show your work.
randommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmluypoibponb
omphguytderd!!!
Last treasury auction of the week was a 10 year - was well received, non-direct (foreign) buying, - from memory - 47% . . . certainly within the recent acceptable range of interest in our paper. so far the Chinese et al are continuing to support our efforts here to bring our economy back form the brink. Will they do so forever? No, assuredly not. But if the plan - and there is a plan, you may not like it, or think it is a good one, but it exists - works, they won't have to. And then we will have walked the tightrope between a very big rock, and a very hard place. Remains to be seen of course, but there is a plan, and that auction last week shows that so far - the plan has a chance.
Not quite, the 10yr auction was Wednesday and was pretty well received. Within a short period of time it was underwater. The 30yr auction was Thursday and was a mess. Sloppy bid-to-cover and sloppy tail. Entire Treasury curve went sellers and has not recovered. Treasuries had a very tough week and ended Friday on the lows of the week.
have no idea which of you has got this right but sure would like to know.
I do. I would just say trust me!. But it might give away too much detail!
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091008-714009.html
P09, hasn't that been typical recently. They're willing to support/prop us for the shorter term but think we're going to be nasty ancient hags in the long term?
AR: Yep, I kinda share that view and express it with the personal acct. Very comfortable parking money short term, but further out the curve, not so interested. In spite of the steepness of the curve, somewhere deep inside, I fear it could get steeper than anyone ever dreamed possible. However, those folks who buy into the Japan style, decade long deflation argument, have been nothing but right with respect to the 10yr sector for the last 2 years.
But deflation isn't sexy
Thankfully you guys are staying on topic for once..
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Julian Robertson, founder of hedge- fund firm Tiger Management LLC, said he has made investments to hedge against the risk of foreign buyers pulling out of U.S. Treasury securities.
The former hedge-fund manager has been buying “curve caps,” an investment that acts like leveraged put options, on long-term government bonds, he said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
They would insure us in the event of massive rate increases,” Robertson said.
Robertson, 77, has been saying the U.S. may face financial “Armageddon” if Japan and China don’t continue to purchase its bonds to finance the country’s deficit spending. The Treasury Department would be forced to raise interest rates to attract new investors, he said.
Who do you favor this year post season, p09?
still like the yanks!
time to put some porterhouses on the grill and pop the red. good night all.
cc - i would defer to patient on this topic. i remembered about the 10 year but was out of the office for Thurs & Fri and as I don't trade treasuries (or even fi) for a living I don't follow them as closely as it sounds like he does. Happy to be corrected here & thanks.