Dolly Lenz calls the bottom

Oh you went tonight Jazzman? Me too. What did you think overall?

Not a fan of the moderator - he spoke too much and needed to listen much more, but still just a bunch of hot air tonight - interesting how they all think their business is just fine. Seems they all are out "talking their book."

Roubini's business is selling doom and gloom - he's long doom and gloom. The developers think their projects are all roses. The brokers say everyone's buying. blah blah blah - inside they all know they have NO IDEA WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. There are too many variables out there - NO ONE knows where we're headed. The Fed Government will definitely pass new laws that will be a game changer. Foreign money may or may not stop buying treasuries. The dollar may hit 1.70 Euros and Europeans may start buying everything and soon leases may be written in Euro denominated amounts - who knows maybe leases will be in Yuan.

I agree. Tonight was nothing special & definitely not at all worth the $80 price tag. I doubt I'll ever go to one of those again unless someone gave me a ticket. Also all the cell phones that kept going off were very, VERY annoying. I understand the majority of people in the room work in real estate but they couldn't turn their cells & Blackberrys off for an hour and half or at the very least put them on vibrate? It wasn't cool at all.

Why , pray tell, pay for something like this?

I wouldn't let Dolly mow my lawn.

jimstreeteasy -it cost me $50 - not a big deal - I'll never know it's gone.

The real question is - in the 2 hours that they spoke could we have had a better conversation. I kept thinking why are they talking about these things - why aren't we letting the economist fight over issues - why aren't we letting Sitt talk about buying notes - or asking about the Plaza Vegas. Why have Dolly and Pam - they should have axed one of them and had Knakal come out of the crowd and take on of the seats.

Why didn't we discuss the most important question I think and that is - will extend and pretend work? If the banks can continue to push the due date back on commercial loans that aren't in financial default will that work. Since banks are no longer forced to mark to market can we just pretend for long enough and be fine? Certainly most deals in financial default must be sold off - but there are 100 funds out there to buy those notes - personally I think the market can absorb all of those notes and perhaps extend and pretend works.

Next I wish they had discussed - For condo sellers in NYC can't they just hold on to their inventory forever? If the banks aren't required to mark their loans to market can't the condo developers hold out for better prices? The only reason to sell for 30% off peak prices is because your bank makes you sell. But if the bank doesn't have to mark to market why would they make the sellers sell at a discount in a market where no new product will be built for years and where the regulatory environment during the pre-development and development stages is so asinine. Buyers will nibble a little here and nibble a little there at the existing product. Then perhaps 3 years from now they will have nibbled half the now-built new product away and with ZERO new product in the pipeline won't this nibbling eventually eliminate the excess supply and we'll have a shortage of new product (by then total employment in the City could be much better and our condo market could be much stronger)?

It seemed anytime that real debate got going that the topic was changed or a new question was asked.

Anyone who expected ANYTHING different than what happened tonite (except for Dolly actually going hard on calling the bottom) isn't very familiar with what these things are really about.

I would be one of those folks 30 yrs. I'm originally from Pennsylvania & had never attended one of these events. I highly doubt I'll ever go again unless I'm given a ticket. It just wasn't worth the money.

I'm at the point in my life where I really am so jaded (and know enough people I guess) that I rarely go anywhere anymore where they think I'm going to pay to get in (except the movies). Clubs? I better get comped AND drink tickets. Lectures? I better get professional courtesy. Otherwise, I'm just not interested. Too much stuff which is better and they don't have their hands in your pockets. Most of this stuff is like when they play commercials before the movies (remember the backlash when they first started doing that? I remember people actually booing). They want you to pay to listen to their advertising pitch. Take the free weekend in Florida and listen to the time-share pitch instead.

I love when they have the one's they call "the top brokers tell their secrets" or some such nonsense. Do people really think that's going to happen?

i read an interview with one of the Related principals yesterday. i'll try and find it. it was about this and that, but what caught my eye was that the three have received approval to form a bank, ostensibly entirely separately from related.

dolly's a tool. who's made a lot of money.

jazzman, i'd think that extend and pretend will only work if they manage to inflate incomes. demographically the largest graduating class is this year for high school and four years out for college, i believe. after that, without immigration, i see declines. with death and retirement, i don't see how medium term that can be easily absorbed, particularly the portion that runs more than one and a half times average purchase prices.

the numbers in cre are simply stunning. not to fixate on my landlords, but to buy a property for over $5 billion at the height and have it be worth $2.1 now is awesome in its destructive capacity. with securitization you diluted the risk, supposedly, but you also have far more people interested in the outcome and getting their money back. that doesn't necessarily make for orderly dissolution, i'd think.

Interesting questions Jazzman. With respect to the developers waiting it out, I would think it will vary by developer. Yes you may, may, be able to wait it out and get the bank's money back in the long run but is that really what you want to spend your time doing? There is an opportunity cost in that and I don't think a lot of these guys want to sit around and make money for somebody else. This will be especially true if the rest of the country continues to show signs that it will improve before New York. Unless they provided personal guarantees, at some point they will hand over the keys as a "rational economic" actor.

I didn't go, I thought hard about it, sure glad I didn't. Thanks to feedback from everyone.

A real journalist for a moderator might have got you something worth paying for (David Frost showed how it's done with Tricky Dick, even though Frost was never a journalist. See, the great ones are born, not made.)

I thought the most recent of Real Deal was incredibly bearish for a trade pub supported mostly by broker-developer adverts. They definitely have the talent in house to cut to through the BS, but they didn't use it, for whatever reason.

{Manhattan real estate agent.}

did Dolly call the top too in 2007?

jazzman, i don't understand. developers still have to service their debt, don't they? hence the trepidation about upcoming commercial loans coming due -- the proverbial other shoe. Developers may build some padding in their numbers, may be able to hold some shadow inventory, but they have to sell apts in order to pay debt, taxes. That is why Miami imploded. There is only so much that banks can hold on their books even if they don't have to mark to market.

ar: your landlords may have diluted the risk but what about the ripple effect? those were pension funds, states like CA and FL that are already hurting -- a lot of individual consumers ( their pensions!) will be affected. Moreover, when other NY developments get in trouble, where are they going to go? you think calpers will be anxious to pony up for NY RE?

thank you urban! they never call tops, maybe plateaus before the next leg higher, but never tops. surprised donald trump wasn't there. doesn't he usually show up at these gab fests? he needs to answer for all the hideous buildings he's erected.

i guess they dont call tops because there is no money in calling tops in a commissioned based sales industry. Plenty of money in calling bottoms though.

Apt23, that's why I wrote supposedly. With a decline in value that large there's no escaping loss except perhaps senior debtholders. Ironically here $1.5 billion of such debt is held by Fannie and Freddie. And they're on record saying that they expect 0 loss.

And I miswrote. This was merely an awful investment decision quite aside from any securitization issue. My point was that everyone assumed the risk was spread due to the involvement of multiple purportedly sophisticated investors. This is an extreme example but probably not a rare one.

apt23: I think Jazzman's assumption is that a lot of lenders on not pulling the trigger immediately on some of their loans for their own reasons, but providing extensions, etc. I assume this is the case in a lot of situations.

jeff at urbandigs did a good piece on this awhile back. CR has covered it as well. pray and delay. extend and pretend.

here's a link for those interested.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/cnbc-interview-with-bryan-marsal-ceo-of.html

I hear what you all are saying, and I wasn't there at the conference. No doubt just a big sales pitch for the realestate industry. But here's the thing...Wall Street is making tons of money this year. Record amounts. And while the % of people getting paid money will be smaller, they will be making much more than ever before. That will reinflate, to an extent, local real estate. I wish this wasn't true, b/c although I'm in finance I'm not front office and won't be sharing the spoils (for us they'll just claim a tough year when bonus time comes around). Within finance the average Joe won't be making tons, but the traders and bankers (still left) will be making a fortune. And that leads to the next step. The average Joe will be pissed, and will jump ship after bonuses this year for more $ elsewhere and the musical chairs will begin. It's already in the works...

LP1, so when the traders and bankers want to move on up to a nicer apartment, who's going to buy their current apartment? with what credit?

the NYC real estate market behaved in the bubble years as though it was one market without any niches.

I am pretty certain that even successful Wall Street people sometimes make rational investment decisions.

aboutready -- the folks still working, who made it through the recession, will start buying. We've all been so cautious, we all feel better times are on the horizon. Places are starting to hire again, with guarantees. Honestly, this goes against my best interests. I want real estate to stay low. It's just not going to happen. There are good deals out there, and there are still people with good credit. I'm not saying it will create a big bubble. I'm just saying that things are going to start moving again.

LP1, you don't get what i am saying. i'm not saying there isn't a premium value that will be assigned to special properties that people with large amounts of money will want to own.

i'm saying that it was f'ng crazy that a cookie-cutter 1200 sf 2/2 rose from $500k to $1.5mm.

the only way that was able to happen, as well as the sale of average new construction condos, was to ignore common sense underwriting standards. the income wasn't there, people were buying what they couldn't afford. that market is not sustainable. the first-time buyers are being propped up with government stimulus, that will continue for awhile until pent-up demand evaporates.

so, some sales will be spurred by high bonuses, but it's not as though those people at GS were paupers last year.

I hear what you're saying aboutready. I'm not disagreeing. What I'm saying is that there will be more people buying next year than were looking to buy in 2009. The collective psychy has changed. We're not fearing the Great Depression 2 anymore, we're seeing things turn around.

LP1 walked around any law firms or ad agencies recently? A couple of financial cos doing better won't negate the effect of persistent unemployment.

"Jazzman, i don't understand. developers still have to service their debt, don't they? hence the trepidation about upcoming commercial loans coming due.."
Sure they have to make payments - some can and some can't - but you don't need to sell many units to make enough cash to cover the interest only debt payments on a a construction loan.
Everyone knows in 3 years from now no new condo/coop product will hit the market so if you're a developer with units to sell why hurry up and sell them now? In 3 years you could be the only game in town.

Personally I think prices must fall to come in line with income - but I also think it must come in line with personal wealth of which NYC has a bunch. A guy who makes $30K a year as a grad student can still pay $2M all cash for a place if he's got a $5M trust fund. Plus with the huge fall in the dollar prices might be off 25% in dollars but they're off 40% in Euros. Certainly the foreign buyer is going to play a big role again.

Still, I think Dolly is wrong and we go lower from here.

I'm 'hearing' the bankers are so scared to write off the commercial loans bc of their experience with the residential side they ARE doing 3 yr forbearance on the notes with rental conversion clause. Here we go punting it down the line. It makes me shudder at the prospect of further rental decreases and shifting of loss to people who will have to sell within the next 3 yrs. Thatz banana capitalism at work kiddums. Flmao. I ain't a buying for another 2 years. Too much shit going on, and the rents keep falling. I'm gonna laugh in 5 different languages when my LL wants to raise my rent by 3% come June. Hahahahhahaha ( English). Hahhahaahhahaha ( Mandarin)

"Personally I think prices must fall to come in line with income - but I also think it must come in line with personal wealth of which NYC has a bunch."

Thanks Jazz. Yes, when I was looking at new developments this summer, they were overwhelmed with parents buying their young 20 somethings new apts. I'm sure it was so the underemployed kiddies could take advantage of the $8000 tax deduction for first buyers and mom and dad could have a pied a terre. the rich get richer, etc.

"so if you're a developer with units to sell why hurry up and sell them now? In 3 years you could be the only game in town."

well, maybe. there still might be a lot of inventory --extell recently filed to build more condos -- and I wouldn't be so sure this time around on the foreigners. yes, the rates are certainly good for them and will probably get better. but a lot of european re investors got burned -- in europe and here. the economy will have to recover significantly in europe to get a new wave of young investors with no memory banks.

puhleeze, Dolly Lenz has been lying for so long even she can't tell when she is telling the truth!

"Thatz banana capitalism at work kiddums."

of course it is.

shrimpie... find something sharp in your studio co-op and sit on it awhile....

you want that translated into hebrew or mandarin?

Just add some 'z's to the end of each word and throw in a FLMAO at the end of the sentence and then I'll understand it better.

(ps - how come your first post to this thread this morning was deleted?)

damn... shrimpie could it be a certain person who is easily offended by cuss words, sexual references and bodily function ran off to the moderator? I wonder who is soooo Victorian in her RE sensibiities????

Please bring back colonelklink.

w67thstreet
"Please bring back colonelklink."

Hey, good insult!

"i guess they dont call tops because there is no money in calling tops in a commissioned based sales industry. Plenty of money in calling bottoms though."

I think you'll see her playing the old Muammar al-Gaddafi "This is the line of death - you cross this line, you die...... ok, THIS is the line of death, you cross this line you die..... OK THIS IS THE LINE OF DEATH..."

I cant stand Dolly Lenz- she is the biggest BSer of all the RE broker BSers out there.

There was an article about her in Forbes Life Executive Woman where she claimed to work similar hours to REAL executive level women such as hedge fund managers, lawyers, investment bankers, entrepreneurers, corporate executives which quite frankley was an insult to all such types of women.

Dispicable really.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/06/071.html

from the above-referenced article. wow. during labor i shot the shit with the hubby and the obgyn and told them to pay more attention to ME than the basketball game that was on the screen. guess i'll never be dolly. no wonder printer is disappointed in me.

Dolly Lenz, vice chairman at Prudential Douglas Elliman, sells more real estate than any other broker in the United States, some $7 billion to date. Happy to plead guilty to an almost manic obsession with her job, Lenz--who is frequently working her BlackBerry (one of 12) at 3 a.m.--admits to "not sleeping a lot." She closed three deals while in labor with her first child and hasn't vacationed in years.

12 blackberries? How does that work? 12 cell phone lines? Nonsensical. I could see more than one, maybe a personal and a business, above that is stupid.

I've been known to send 3am emails, it is no big deal.

I think the Oslo market opens at 3:30 NY time, so on earnings days I would sometimes get up in the middle of the night to check my Norwegian stocks.

Totally obnoxious.

It must have been a very LONG early labor.

I don't beleive she uses 12 bb's.

^believe, damn it!
I put flowers in the vase yesterday and couldn't figure out why they were dead at the end of the day. forgot to add water. please excuse all of my typos. my brain is buried in my uterus.

modern, i lived in tokyo as the kept woman of a currency swaps banker (actually had great jobs myself). awful life he led. awakened and kept awake at horrible hours, both london and new york needed immediate attention every day. he developed SAD, and it was very obvious.

depending on your personal circadian rhythms, and habits, it can be quite unhealthy.

uwsmom, beleive or believe. it's but the same.

and shit on a stick, all of a sudden i can't recall a thing UNLESS i get my two hours of exercise a day. is that uterine? i think so.

Off topic personal inquiry (but speaking of the topic, who really wants to talk about Dolly Lenz anyway?) - AR, what years in Tokyo? Me - early to mid '90s.

sls, 1988-90. interesting expat world. as long as you weren't with the raging bull. they had an awful expat package at the time.

1988-90 - peak of the peak of the bubble. Fun times. By the time I turned up early '90s, the much diminished expat crowd looked back on your years as the good old days. Apparently more than one bank had a lame expat package, although when you're single in Tokyo all you really need is cash to throw at the cost of living problem.

"One of the symptoms of an approaching nervous breakdown is the belief that one's work is terribly important." - Bertrand Russel

I taped this quote to the back of my husband's blackberry. Do you think anyone loves Dolly enough to do the same? No one should be this proud to be a pathological workaholic.

sls, the excesses of compensation were not completely yet upon us. but the excesses of expat comp were definitely there.

i miswrote, what IS wrong with my mind? it was 1986 to 1988. i got married 1990 (april fool's day no less), but i'm not anchoring dates so well. but those trends had certainly begun. and i had to escape after a couple of years of huge lofts in akasaka and sasaki crystal rented at the cost to the firm.

the hubby still kids me about my "poor" decisions.

My point for posting the article was- you cant really expect me to believe that saying "this is the living room" is 100+ hours of stressful work weeks. Give me a break.

I actually think dolly probably works quite hard at what she does. Still despise her, but not for those reasons. She is outright lying. She is quite aware of the potential turmoil in the condo market and is willing to announce that the bottom is in for the condo market. Just doing her job, or serious ethics problem? I'll go with the latter.

great article, though. the 12 blackberries is a hoot.

Once someone like her calls a bottom, I am fairly certain we have further to fall....

A rock and a hard place.

To be fair, as a broker, how can one expect to sell one apartment if you admit we are not at the bottom and the government won't let it bottom out so it can start rising?

She should not be discussing "bottoms" at all however. She should be focusing on her sellers and their dellusions.

the problem is, truthskr, she is not just speaking as a broker, she is speaking as a shill for the entire industry. if she had any integrity, she'd decline the opportunity. someone would take her place, for sure, and i'd despise that person instead. it reflects upon her and her company and her industry.

truthskr10:
"She should not be discussing "bottoms" at all however. She should be focusing on her sellers and their dellusions."

Wow, I always thought she had fake boobs! Are you now telling me she has a fake bottom?

aboutready

Well that's the problem ain't it, talking bottoms made her look like an ass. Decline the opportunity? A broker? For public speaking?
I think someone would turn down a Nobel faster. :)

i know, i wrote it for the laugh factor. good add on the nobel reference. as a seeker of truth, i'm quite certain you don't turn to dolly. she just makes my skin crawl. maybe she can form a joint venture with His Orangeness to lubricate the market.

let's not forget Dolly has $$$ and looks and smarts. let's not forget what Dolly does for a living. She's not a shill, she a hot babe in hot prusuit of a hot property to sell. When it was impossible to say anything good she kept her head down (sort of). With the warming of the market, she's out beating the drum!
Beat it Dolly, beat it harder...don't stop yeah...that's it, don't stop...AGHHHHHHHHHH! Where do I sign?

can you imagine being dolly's child? can you?

I sure can!!!
Attachment Parenting!!!!...I sleep in bed with her and breastfeed until.......college.
always upbeat, always positive, always closing!
Dolly dearest........can I call you mommy?

at least she can afford therapy for them, and lots of it...

"My point for posting the article was- you cant really expect me to believe that saying "this is the living room" is 100+ hours of stressful work weeks. Give me a break."

This is exactly the type of total ignorance of how brokers actually make their living which leads to the group-think here of why broker's commissions are not earned.

I wonder how much dolly earned during the bubble? i'd guess far more than a heart surgeon. but i never denied that she works hard.

Never had any dealings with Dolly Lenz. The top brokers on the UWS are a motivated, hardworking bunch - if they weren't working in RE they would excel doing sales in some other arena.

That made a nice change from the relentless unthinking broker-bashing going on here.

So, if Dolly Says it, it must mean another year of declines at least...

NWT: I certainly would not take RE advice from a broker, but the top producers are ambitious, driven types who would do well in any kind of sales.