He Who Knows

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5453-mark-this-note-manhattan-real-estate-fall-40

Still waiting.......

I think dmag's 40% correction prediction will prove correct and will be surpassed. We're already down at least 25-30% and that's with conforming mortgage rates the lowest they've ever been. We'll be "lucky" to end up only down 40%.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6519-2009-dow-jones-cracks-5000-level

Granted, the year still has 2 1/2 months to go, but this little trial balloon never really floated now did it?

As for Him Who Knows' various doomsday predictions, he recommended taking money out of the market (wrong) and putting it into foreign currencies (right) and, I think, gold (right).

The 40% correction in NYC RE will probably be pretty close to accurate, although it may take a while to drift down to that point. Most of the underlying fundamentals have not changed - salaries are down or flat (except maybe Wall Street?), unemployment is up, rents are down, credit is tighter than it was, a glut of new construction still needs to be digested by the market, and mortgage interest rates can only go higher.

So the stock market is up. I see that as merely making the "popping" of the bubble more of a slow and steady deflation.