The past bites

So does your mom.

wow, some VERY funny stuff in here...

"but...but....but.....everyone is leaving the city, rents are going down, no one will move here, unemployement will skyrocket, oil will reach 200, DOW will hit 10000.......RUN FOR THE HILLS

LMAO"

(from, yes, Juice)

juice, are you *trying* to make yourself look bad?

I guess its time to LMownAO now...

So, which charity will the $ go to?

First of all, Juicy, those are ASKING prices, not sales prices, and therefore need have no bearing in reality. Jonathan Miller reports 3Q2009 average (not median) ppsf of $996, down 16.5% in a year. JM himself has said prices are down 25%-30%, a post I've made a number of times.

So physician, heal thyself, as this is what you said: "If lots of high end psft places are selling, how in the hell can we have a 30-50% blanket reduction?"

Well, seems we did.

Then you said: "What I find interesting is that no one can come up with a statement for where they feel a 30-50% reduction will come from. [...] If you are going to use a blanket 30-50% prediction th[e]n we have to use MEDIAN PRICE PER SQUARE FT. It is that simple really. Forecasters need to either qualify their prediction or accept the measure. TenthStreet, do you understand what I’m saying?"

So, Jonathan Miller says sale prices are down 30%, posted many times, and now Juicy denies it. Moreover, where does it say ANYWHERE in that thread that we should measure the price on October 23, 2009?

Nowhere. The process isn't over yet. How do I know? Because 15 months ago the inventory was about 7,500. Today the inventory is:

Real Estate for Sale
In Manhattan
We found 9,481 listings with an address

With an equal amount of shadow inventory. But methinks thee dost protest too much: it ain't over till it's over, and it ain't nowhere near over.

Hmm. Not so good at the Olde English, ha?

"Moreover, where does it say ANYWHERE in that thread that we should measure the price on October 23, 2009?"

Steve, JuiceMan said this in that very thread:
"How about this, we use streeteasy median prices as of 7/21/08 and 7/21/09, "must have address box" checked, and a 30% reduction off median prices ($825 a sqft). The winner picks a charity and the loser donates $100 to it. Anyone on this board can play. Just respond to this thread with either under $825 psft or over $825 psft median target and the dollar amount you are pledging. Next year, those who responded correctly will pick the charity and those who chose incorrectly will donate their pledged amount to it."

If anything, you've had the benefit of an extra 3 months. Now I don't really like looking at asking prices, though comparing asking prices to asking prices over time seems a bit more palatable (if anything, it's a decent gauge of sellers' mentality). The one argument in your favor is that inventory has increased since then, which hints at sellers still being a bit behind on adjusting prices. Still, I'm guessing nobody who picked the under is going to pay up?

asking to asking comps dont work when at the first data point trades often occured well through asking, where now shit trades well below

noone can disagree with that

Missed that, bjw. Charity gets my $100.

Ubottom, that's a pretty unscientific statement. I do know Miller measures listing-to-sales price difference - maybe someone can look at that. Regardless, the terms here were lined up over a year ago. Did you bet? If so, it's curious timing to be raising that issue.

steve, good on ya. Juice, which charity? I'll chip in, even though I picked the over as well.

Here is my choice for a charity. I'm in as well, since I may have fallen short on a few predictions between then and now. :)

http://www.hrc.org/

"I may have fallen short on a few predictions between then and now."

Understatement of the century!

hadnt heard of se a year ago--dont know specifics of bet
do know that ask to ask comp is largely useless given that trade price relative to ask has changed significantly

totaly support the concept of equal rights for gay trannie les etc--find a charity that supports those very specific very worthy groups, that calls itself "human rights campaign", a bit misleading--have you vetted this thoroughly?

" I'm in as well, since I may have fallen short on a few predictions between then and now. :)"

Wow, did we finally get our first bull to admit they were wrong? Pop the champagne!

;-)

I'm willing to bet Dow Jones will hit 9000 before it hits 11,000.