What do you think? Will the residential sale market stablize, drop more, or inch up in 2010?

hmmmmm

My guess: In nominal dollars things may stay flat or inch up slightly. On an inflation-adjusted basis, prices will fall. Certain over-built neighborhoods (LIC, Downtown Brooklyn, LIC) will see bigger drops regardless.

drops both nominal and in real terms. slowly, but surely. of course, unless there is another big shock to the system. which there very well might be in 2010.

You're the professional, you tell us.

I mean, we'd be very receptive to hearing your analysis of where things are headed from your perspective.

Love that "pro" moniker!

I assume you're being sarcastic...

who the hell would ever take market advice from a broker? Was there a group out there who got it more wrong in 2008/2009?

I get plenty of advice on a daily... I mean hourly, basis. So, no, I don't need any more advice. But ANALYSIS, yes yes yes!!! That's what I want.

She's a VP (and a PRO), which is far higher than I ever got on the corporate ladder. Let her speak, please.

5% decrease next year in condos

Sure, I just like to hear outside opinions because I am in "the thick of it." From an anecdotal standpoint, my team began getting our buyers into contract in March and we have been busy ever since. It was dead quiet from the Lehman collapse to end of January 2009. The majority of our current buyers are first time buyers in the $1.5Mill price point and below. We have 12 exclusive buyer clients and 8 are in contract. The other 4 break down as such: one is in process of offer, 2 are looking for 2010 move in's and one is just at the beginning of their search and may rent. This buyer is also thankful for the extension of the First Time Buyer Tax Credit. As for our sellers, we have mainly been renting out their units and only those that must sell, are selling. I believe in Manhattan that the best info is what is going on NOW in the market which is anecdotal. The market reports lag the "actual" market 4-5 months, in my opinion, much because of the Co-op time lines that are on average 4 months from offer to close. Specifiably, I find the S&P/Case-Shiller index to be misleading in NYC because it does not include new developments and uses repeat sales, but I think it is helpful on a macro level. Here is a great blog post from Jonathan Miller on this http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=6298 and here http://www.reuters.com/article/Housing08/idUSN1927073820080219 for info from an expert. As for financing, I find Bank of America to be issuing commitment letters within a week to two weeks. Back in March it was taking about 4-6 weeks (and sometimes longer) from Chase and Wells Fargo. I think the $1.5Mill price point and below will stabilize in 2010 and we will see nominal drops above that price point. But hey, I don't have a crystal ball and am not a econ major! :) Don't take my word on it. It's all an educated guess....

stephanied -we had a poster on here yesterday talking about her inability to finance a condo purchase made pre-lehman due to stiffer occupancy requirements for fannie mae underwriting. How are you advising clients who are looking at new development condos at 1.5M and below?

> She's a VP

Isn't VP the title you get after 2 weeks? Come to think of it, I'm not sure I ever met a broker who wasn't a VP.

> and a PRO

So, if you sign up for the pro service on streeteasy, you suddenly know more? ;-)

> Here is a great blog post from Jonathan Miller o

Funny to quote Miller... he says stay tuned for additional declines.

Pls tell me if spinny's apt will be under water in 2010 or 2011?

Jonathan Miller is great - important to follow him.

Vice President titles (or any other title) are not given out arbitrarily (at least not at Corcoran). You need to have met a certain gross commissions closed, which is basically around 15-20 sales deals closed in a given year....

Johnny miller is a tool. Literally a tool.

Who'd ya get 'ied' by?

Why is he a tool?

On the OP's question, drop more. Supply (esp condo inventory/shadow inventory) too out of whack with demand/purchasing power to conclude anything else. Rent v buy is also unfriendly to buyers today and my sense is that rents are falling faster than sales prices, so what does that do for the price outlook?

A tool as in I Put out a weather gauge out and it reads 30 degrees f. What I need is someone to tell me what the sailing conditions will be in the next 12 hrs. Comprendo?

I don't know if you know but I know that NYC re knows it is going down, do you wanna know how I know? It's bc I know how to read and smell fear. Just stick your nose outside and take a deep sniff. That first hint is the garbage truck, that second layer is all the sellers, borkers, geitner, Obama, bankers and other vested bubble ppl hoping against all hope that all the bad debt they've brushed under health care and afghanistan isn't growing mold.

RE: stephanied -we had a poster on here yesterday talking about her inability to finance a condo purchase made pre-lehman due to stiffer occupancy requirements for fannie mae underwriting. How are you advising clients who are looking at new development condos at 1.5M and below?

-This is a very tough position to be in when a new development condo was purchased pre-Lehman. I assume she has her deposit sitting in escrow in jeopardy if she doesn't get financing and close. I have clients working with the sponsors to downgrade the purchase, i.e. a studio in some cases. I also have clients that are reaching out to the Attorney General to get their deposit back. Some clients are looking for investment partners to help them get to the closing table or flipping the contract.

-Did she/you read the recent NYT article on FHA loans? It could be of importance - Here is the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/realestate/22mort.html Quote: "...earlier this month, the agency said that through next January it would relax some rules under which condo owners can qualify for the loans."

pls help my buddy w67thwannabe. He needs 500psf to get out of jail. How long for that?

now where is that agent rachel thread..

W 67th Street - I hear you. And yes, it could get worse... Like I said, no one has a crystal ball. Did you read the latest cover story in Time "The Decade of Hell" - good read whether you agree or not with it. Here is link: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1942834,00.html

And I know I am going to sound like "a-hippy-free-lovin-new-age-crazy thinker" but I like to see the world from a place of positive thinking and not fear-based thinking. I know, I know, go ahead and make fun of me....

i have a crystal ball.

On the movie 'up' my daughter asked me if the wife died. I said no, absolutely not. I said she went on see friends. In that same spirit I will tell you stephanie, yes the NYC re will go down very hard and very long, but I promise not to eat your dog.

Josefsz - Please do tell....

Now catz, I hear they taste like chkn. And I love chkn.

it's crystal and shaped like a ball. that's all.

Point taken W67thstreet :)

Don't fall for the old 'i got a crystal bqll' line from a SEer. It never ends well.

I knew it was your mantel piece! I totally fell for that.... man! "kicking self"

stephanied, welcome to Streeteasy, where intelligent and worthwhile posts like yours above are largely eschewed in favor of, well, 90% of what you see above. I tend to agree with your analysis - the lower end should do quite well given what's going on in the market (lower prices, extension of the homebuyer credit, very low rates for conforming 30-year loans, and we're likely not far off peak unemployment), but I have trouble seeing "trophy" properties selling unless they're willing to negotiate pretty drastic discounts off peak prices. There's a lot of overstatement here, but I doubt I'm in the minority in these thoughts.

Thank you bjw2103, much appreciated. I dig this open forum, so important, vital.

My thoughts are you should scrimp and save every penny. Drop starbucks, forget dinner at Fatty Crab, and look for a second job.

"Vice President titles (or any other title) are not given out arbitrarily (at least not at Corcoran). You need to have met a certain gross commissions closed, which is basically around 15-20 sales deals closed in a given year...."

So, the folks who qualified based on last year were the ones who convinced people to buy at the peak of the market. Nice. Doesn't help much on the "market predictor" front.

Or, lets simplify...

Christine Toes is a Vice President at Corcoran.
(enough said)

to qualify, you had to have sold

Christine Toes is great and I like following her posts on www.urbandigs.com (Noah Rosenblatt is informative as well)

- But when it comes down to it, titles don't matter (although it helps differentiate experience levels which I do think is helpful to the customer). Happy clients are what matter and to have happy clients you must give them the best service possible, which is find them the home they want and can afford and help them purchase it. Yes, there are agents "who convinced people to buy..." with a hard sell and have done it for many years. But that is old school real estate. Now the client drives the transaction not the deal anymore. It is a profound switch. Even when the market is in the gutter or sky high, life happens and someone has to buy or sell (NYC is a user market primarily) and I want to be the agent to give that person/persons the most help possible. I truly love what I do. And yes, go ahead and make fun of that.... but I am ready for any market. My team specializes in rentals and sales - we are ready for whatever the client needs, whatever the market bears. It's their home.

Give her this, at least she's good at her job and can close business. Most people fail at sales. It's not like she held a candle to anyone's foot. As much as I dislike some things RE brokers do, I take a stand when someone tries to shit on people who puts food on the table via closing deals.

"Vice President titles (or any other title) are not given out arbitrarily (at least not at Corcoran). You need to have met a certain gross commissions closed, which is basically around 15-20 sales deals closed in a given year...."

Are you saying that there are people who are Associate Brokers who are not VP's?

Come on Stephanie seems nice. Stephanie - once the people who stockpiled money in the go go times are done buying, look out below. There are too many condos, period. 30% down for a 50% peak to trough decline.

and she's a pro.

think that SE should offer a drop down menu for the rest of us riffraff to tag our names: bull, bear, expert, etc.

What we really need is pics like on AOL IM.

To take your comment a bit further Rhino, and I think the consensus re condo risk is well founded, but the question remains who/what may benefit from a such a perceived risk. If a buyer wants to take advantage of interest rates and inventory selection not seen in years, has money in the bank and sees some prices stabilizing, where do they go? Is it possible that those buyers may look more favorably upon established buildings and coops, where financing is easy to obtain and where the future isn't so uncertain?

I have thought for some time that the uncertainty in the condo market has benefitted the coop market, particularly at the lower end of the price spectrum. I still see opportunity for pain with properties over 2M but that is a much smaller segment of the market (25% or so). IMO much of the condo inventory has rendered itself almost irrelevant to the discussion. Few can get financing and even if they could why would they expose themselves to the risk? That market segment is on life support, only contracts signed pre-Lehman are keeping the patient in its vegetative state. People talk about the shadow inventory like it's some monster lurking in the shadows ready to push all prices down to levels not seen since the 90's. I call bullshit. Nobody could buy them anyway.

but...seems like its only a matter of time until lenders begin to untangle from developers and drastically reduce prices to make these condos a compelling deal. that's when they will exert significant downward pressure on everything. otherwise, they sit empty forever?

I agree with CC. Cities that are farther along than us have done exactly that. Developers end up trying just to service the building as manager.

The thing is, when I say 30% down from here, 50% down from the top, spinnaker, this is so much higher than the levels prevailing in the 1990s that its not even funny.

"If a buyer wants to take advantage of interest rates and inventory selection not seen in years, has money in the bank and sees some prices stabilizing, where do they go?"

This is the crux, how many people have money and how many of them has such a lack of historical sense that they view the current situation as an opportunity. The only thing this is an opportunity compared to is the ridiculous 2005-2007 period. This is not an opportunity comparied to 1992, or 1999, or even 2002. This is an opportunity compared to what we now know was an epic bubble in financial market incomes and availability of easy financing.

If and until that happens they have taken themselves out of the game. The prices are still hugely inflated and could stand drastic reductions.

so supply is compromised either because of the threat of the shadow inventory or the ultimate reality of it being repriced.

and, on the demand side, only those with very large assets or rock solid jobs can rationally consider making this kind of financial commitment...which tends to considerably lower demand from where it has been in the past.

I think the issue CC is that the large assets/rock solid people either already bought in large numbers, or are too smart to consider this an opportunity now that they see rents so weak. The determinant of the bottom is how many large assets/rock solid people exist and remain inclined to buy at these levels. Clearly those people have come out in numbers, but how many are left relative to the number of condo units that are left. On another note, how many people who saw themselves as staying in NYC forever and raising a family are now reconsidering and over the next two years will make moves out of the city. Will there be new financial and legals hires to sop up thos vacated rentals or sold two bedroom apartments? Within my/my wifes family...we had a well off hedge fund guy sell his loft one bed to move into a rental....we had a family of five sell their convertable 3 bed on Riverside and 115 to move to the accept a job in the Bershires... and myself, we almost bought a 2 bed but it failed appraisal the week Lehman collapsed...and we're taking the next couple of years to rent and figure out what we want to do long term.

"Yes, there are agents "who convinced people to buy..." with a hard sell and have done it for many years. But that is old school real estate."

Don't you do this yourself, Stephanie? I saw some listing you had ages ago, and I got some unsolicited emails from you earlier this year regarding some seminar you / your firm was hosting. Here's what was at the top of the email:

Property Virgins NYC
Buy before everyone else figures it out...
Signs you should buy right now:
- Do you see yourself leaving NYC in the next three years?
- Will you be making a job change anytime soon?
- Do you like putting your hard earned money into your landlord's pocket?
- Do ou know the percentage of Co-ops vs. Condos in NYC?

You don't consider unsolicited emails like that "convincing people to buy"?

of course not...

that's marketing. or is is social networking?

buy before everyone else figures it out? where have we heard that before?

Note that I don't care that much that you sent the email. Easy enough to delete, and easy enough to understand the conflict-of-interest in claims you might make. I'm a bit disappointed, however, that you claim not to do such things. There are brokers out there who truly do not "push" buying onto their clients: UD, West81st, etc. How you can claim to be such a broker after having sent that email bewilders me...

Note that before those emails, I had a pretty positive view of you as a broker. Afterwards, not so much.

Ooops Steph, maybe you should have thought twice before promoting yourself in shiny blue letters on SE. "hard earned money into your landlord's pocket?" Hmmmmm. I guess thats RE new school....

not to pile on here, but do you really recommend making housing decisions based on a three-year residency projection?

I can see where this forum is headed

Excellent posts by Rhino, CC.

Rhino -- you are saying that recent market activity "in numbers" is people who stockpiled rock-solid assets, etc. and who for whatever reason aren't deterred by the price history here (which means they are still buying at very bubbly prices) but that there is a limited supply of them.

That seems logical but I'm just wondering what gives you this impression of the recent buyers profile. Is this what brokers are reporting, or are you saying this on the assumption that only this type of buyer could get financing.

High unemployment still means that most people are employed, and most are not going to lose their job, so couldn't recent buyers be people who simply think (foolishly, many would argue) that they should take this opportunity to buy on a price dip?

(To be clear, I personally am in the bear camp...but somewhat skeptical...because this nyc market has a lot of fools in it, a lot).

"Don't you do this yourself, Stephanie? I saw some listing you had ages ago, and I got some unsolicited emails from you earlier this year regarding some seminar you / your firm was hosting. Here's what was at the top of the email:

Property Virgins NYC
Buy before everyone else figures it out...
Signs you should buy right now:
- Do you see yourself leaving NYC in the next three years?
- Will you be making a job change anytime soon?
- Do you like putting your hard earned money into your landlord's pocket?
- Do ou know the percentage of Co-ops vs. Condos in NYC?

You don't consider unsolicited emails like that "convincing people to buy"? "

OMFL!!!!

Wow, the nerve of these people.... to not only be one of the people who CAUSED hardship for so many, but then to pretend that they never did it in the first place.

"Christine Toes is great and I like following her posts on www.urbandigs.com (Noah Rosenblatt is informative as well) "

OK, its official.... this person has absolutely no clue on the market. (for those who don't know, Christine Toes is famous on this board for, right as the market began to tank, posting a whole treatise on UD about how the market was poised for increases).

Fool me once...

Jimstreeteasy: I am not shy at all about looking up the profiles of actual buyers in my niche market. As far as I can tell, they seem "rock solid" types, i.e. many years of working in finance, small mortgages, all-cash deals, family $, trustafarians. I don't know if these are the people Rhino is referring to, but they are a small number indeed.

So I was thinking that perhaps Stephanie sent had perhaps sent the emails at the behest of her brokerage, but I don't think that was the case as a browse of the web shows that it's pretty directly from her. I've received similar emails from her since May 2008. Here's the full gist of the email so that you can judge for yourself:

http://www.facebook.com/notes/theadvocategroup/topics-covered-in-my-property-virgins-nyc-seminarsworkshopsgigsthingiesand-yes-a/192725545197

And here's a YouTube clip from the seminar:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlvqyYMBHfw&NR=1

I just don't see how you can reconcile that with not being someone who "convinces people to buy". Look, I got no problem with you trying to convince your clients to do something that you believe in. I've got no problem with it even if the outcome turns out to be bad: that's life and not necessarily reflective of good vs. bad advice. I'll particularly have respect for you if you also put your money where your mouth is: e.g., Toes or front_porch who have recently bought. But even someone like front_porch, who "believes" in buying right now, is very measured and careful in how she frames things given everything I've seen of her. I just don't see how you can put yourself in that category.

Jimstreeteasy...my comment is based on gut [ample] and the fact that most people on Wall Street did not get a big bonus last year. Those who did, probably already owned. My assertion is anecdotal and somewhat personal...but I beleive it nonetheless. It seems clear to me that inventory (shadow and real) is coming on faster than down payments are being earned.

The type of inventory that "rock solid" types go after is different from the go-go bubble buyer types. They are certainly not going to snap up condos in projects like 80RSB or 60RSB or 100 Eleventh or Williamsburg/LIC condos or uptown condos. And they're not buying dark or inferior apt lines in good buildings. And they want a deal on top of that - maybe not 500psf pricing, but they need to see some pain.

I think you are confusing financial success for real estate savvy. I know smart financial types who paid $1.5mm for large one bed condos at the peak...just cause they were making money and the monthly payment after tax doesnt seem 1/2 bad compared to 'throwing away' $4500+ on the same kind of luxury one bed.

Honestly, why does anyone think the pain in Riverdale and LIC is not going to spread to Manhattan condos. Until the Manhattan luxury condo market settles, you cant argue the Manhattan coop market can settle. They are NOT different markets.

And condos are inherently better. For one - they have no mortgage underlying.

Rhino: not disputing that there were successful WS types who bought 1br condos. I'm looking at it from the other side - who is buying in my niche market right now? "Rock solid" types. Not enough to support the market indefinitely, and at some point, the large supply of unsold condos will affect more desirable supply. The question is how.

I'm sitting on my short bets in the equity market right now and bleeding $. I am convinced that the equity market is on a short bull run, but obviously it hasn't happened yet.

Rhino: structurally yes, but they are not in places I want to live in at prices I want to pay.

My point is condos will get to prices CERTAIN people will choose to pay (read: tighter spread to coop prices). I can tell you at a price, I would certainly buy in a new development. There are a lot of positive aspects to it. Amenities, condition, etc. And the fact it is real property. The HOW is that at the margin there are plentry of people open to both, and at a price the demand will be sapped from the coop market. Financing and income history is also an issue. You may see condo steal from coop demand because many people are no longer passable to a board.

It's taking an agonizingly low time for would-be buyers for that scenario to play out. There are still too many people waiting for that gap to narrow, and too many people living in their family-sized apts on the UWS who could put them on the market but aren't.

low -> long

This is probably the fastest Manhattan has ever fallen by 25% in history. The last downturn took three years. I am not following you on the impatience front. I guess the annoying part, is prices started getting stupid in 2004, and if this takes three years, then is basically been 2004 to 2011 that Manhattan real estate has been unsettlingly high for the math literate.

Look, you can hate real estate brokers for many reasons, but they are not responsible for "making" people buy an apartment. Buyers are adults who can think for themselves and are responsible for the smart and the stupid decisions they make.

If brokers could really "make" people buy apartments, then they would have just continued doing it for the past year.

Hold brokers responsible for their many flaws...I agree with that. But, saying that brokers "convinced" or "made" people buy at the peak is just not true and it dilutes the valid criticisms of their efforts and the industry.

The pace seems to have picked up at several of those condos in wmburg..72 berry sold out, 125 north 10th now sold out, 69 berry sold out (i think), nv sold out (i think), also i think 20 pine is nearly sold now....My point is that recent market flow, that leads some to think things are stabilizing (again, not my view) , is in different type buildings than what 10023 just described above.

No one said "make"...But its downright moronic to say that brokers dont try to convince people to buy...and to sell. I mean it is what they do. Thats like saying a stock broker doesnt try to convince you to buy stock. I mean this fucking debate is ridiculous. The sky is blue. Does someone want to debate me? Is it more greenish?

Jim you are basically covering all the fringe areas who cut prices more drastically and earlier. The better areas are holding out and only time will tell if its to their benefit or detriment.

well---when stephanie tells people to buy before everyone else figures it out; she is presenting a distorted case that may influence the less savvy to take action. when she says in her you tube video (luckily viewed by less than 200) that people should multiply their income by four to come up with an appropriate purchase price, she is once again presenting highly misleading information.

jim, there are different ways to look at distress. a building that has been selling for awhile and sells the last few units for a large discount is showing a certain kind of distress. a building like laurel that has been selling for awhile, started closings awhile ago, and is only 30%ish closed is showing a different kind of distress. a building like tempo which started sales awhile ago and has less than a dozen in contract, another type. and a large building that is currently just being started when its neighbors (Rushmore) seem to be alreadly in huge trouble is yet another type.

also, sold out doesn't mean squat. until and unless the units close. i've recently seen a building in Harlem that told me they were sold out two years ago and now there are 20 units on the market. guess what, they were renting them. who knew?

I'll eat her dog now thank you.

finished the catz so soon?

Patience young jedis, and princess leia is your sister, stop looking at her that way.

The dog-eater is right. Sign a two year lease and check back in fall 2011.

"I just don't see how you can reconcile that with not being someone who "convinces people to buy". Look, I got no problem with you trying to convince your clients to do something that you believe in. I've got no problem with it even if the outcome turns out to be bad: that's life and not necessarily reflective of good vs. bad advice. I'll particularly have respect for you if you also put your money where your mouth is: e.g., Toes or front_porch who have recently bought. But even someone like front_porch, who "believes" in buying right now, is very measured and careful in how she frames things given everything I've seen of her. I just don't see how you can put yourself in that category."

Well, put.

"But, saying that brokers "convinced" or "made" people buy at the peak is just not true and it dilutes the valid criticisms of their efforts and the industry. "

I agree, this is getting stupid.

You can debate all day about whether or not the snake oil salesman "made" people buy or not. But, in the end, they're still an fing snake oil salesman.

People like her gave BAD info to people they were supposed to help have pushed people toward BAD decisions to profit themselves.

Play semantics all you want, but these people deserve all the criticism and more.

Thank you rhino. I think.

Little known fact. Although furry, catz have very little meat on them. Cat scratch your piggie eyes out ppl!!!!

i am skeptical. why would stephanie "love to know" the thoughts of us mere mortals? is this for a science project of some sort?

Ah, that makes sense - IMO, RE started getting stupid early '02.

Wow, I turn around and bam, posts have doubled. So, my first jump into this open forum has opened my eyes. (I would love for some of you to divulge who you are). I am trying to be completely transparent and put my self "out there" to criticism which I am open to when it is helpful, I am not perfect and have made mistakes (i.e. sending out the Property Virgins NYC Seminar emails almost 2 years ago at the request of a previous broker). I apologize (inonada) and am woman enough to admit it (and have already for this but will gladly do it again).

Many of you hide behind your handles. I love a good debate, but to go as far as bad mouthing me personally and my profession, it really is a disservice to this forum and what I believe is it's true intention. I also don't have the ability to scrutinize what many of you do for a living - not quite a fair fight if one takes it down that road. Why does a question about the market turn into a free for all on me and real estate brokers? I posed the question, then was asked my opinion which was anecdotal. Yes we have our flaws. But my reputation, experience and credits speak for themselves and deserve a valid discussion not ending up in offensive chatter (please see the numerous testimonials from clients and colleagues and feel free to contact every single one of them). Please share your personal history, recommendations, resume, press and biography and let's see who you are :)

Thank you for your input aboutready, columbiacounty, Rhino86, jimstreeteasy, nyc10023, inonada, spinnaker1, positivecarry, w67thstreet, bjw2103, Jerry2323, Post87deflation, josefsz. I have compiled your market insights and will be sharing with my clients, past clients, and networks.

I buy and sell stocks for a living. I dont broker them. I dont try to get others to buy and sell them. I am not sure where you get off with your toughgirl attitude. Do you really want to meet, share resumes and have me tell you I think you and your profession are deplorable to your face? No one made you do anything. You sent out a sickening email that stood out as shitballs even within one of the scummiest professions around. The intention of this forum? WTF are you talking about. On blogs, people yell at eachother.

Steph, if you were a frequent user of this forum, you had to know that this was coming. Maybe you overestimate yourself a bit. It is better to be cautious before splashing yourself in blue before knowing what is this forum about. If you cared to do that, you would have know a lot about the posters, since almost everyone here as a recognizable profile, a story that is told overtime, an agenda that is somehow disclosed. This site is really generous with some brokers, mostly the ones that have started somehow discreetly and proved knowledge and wisdom as time passed by. As you post here, you have something to gain: clients. This is one reason to disclose your identity that I dont have, since I am a buyer and I dont seek for clients. The downside is that if you rub the users the wrong way, you are up for a bad time. I dont make any assumptions about you. You sound like a nice person. Maybe you have to be more cautious. This is a smart, anonymous NY site. What do you expect...

Flmao.

3pts.
1. The # of threads does not reflect op, FYI. It's up to 'se gods;
2. I didn't attack you, I just ate your dog,
3. The whole reason I am on here 'anonymously' is bc I can make fun of all the re borkers who surround me on a daily basis. My kids friends parents are borkers, my neighbor is a borker, my slip mate is a borker, my attorneys wife is a borker. Can't stand biting my tongue as they say 'buy now!!!!!!!'

So a personal quest to u. In 5th grade did u write 'i want to be a borker someday?'

Seriously, for $300mm you'd jump into the sack with your husband and mistress?

Stephanie: surely you can't be so naive as to NOT anticipate what was coming. I have a great deal of respect for a few brokers. Why? Not because they "know" where the market was going or whatever. It's because they are damned good salespeople who would excel at any type of sales and they work hard (yes, it's not quite bricklaying in the middle of the desert) at knowing their product and closing deals.

I don't know what other type of tangible skill could be associated with being a RE broker and I challenge you to come up with them.

so much for:

"I dig this open forum, so important, vital."

except when it's open?

Stephanie, my intention here was not to attack you, it's just that I saw you state something that seemed to go counter to a previous position: namely, whether you should be doing any "convincing to buy" as a broker. If you are saying that it was a mistake, or you've changed your mind on the issue, then so be it. Kudos to you for figuring it out. You have said nothing in this forum of that ilk, so I don't think people should be skewering you for some past position that you now disagree with.

I, for one, would certainly like to from you further on this forum as I remember you as a very professional broker.

"I am not sure where you get off with your toughgirl attitude. Do you really want to meet, share resumes and have me tell you I think you and your profession are deplorable to your face? No one made you do anything. You sent out a sickening email that stood out as shitballs even within one of the scummiest professions around. The intention of this forum? WTF are you talking about. On blogs, people yell at eachother."

Pretty misplaced, Rhino. Let's make this clear: there are some scummy brokers out there (and lawyers, and politicians, and teachers, etc.), but I'm of the innocent-til-proven-guilty school of thought, and stephanied hasn't really done anything to merit some of the crap responses on this thread. An email 2 years ago? Give me a break. She's clearly open to discourse and criticism, which is welcome thing. And don't tell me you come to Streeteasy for the yelling - it would be completely interchangeable with all the other boards out there. I come here because it can sometimes be useful, but if people want to turn into that kind of malarkey, it's no longer interesting.

I guess I am naive when it comes to the response I received.... didn't realize how fast it could happen with one question! I also have not been actively participating on blogs/discussion boards where I am as transparent as this site and as focused on nyc real estate. It is a different animal. I look forward to learning more. And it is not in my nature to be "discreet," and I am working on that everyday because it can pose problems as you said, mimi. But thank you to all and look forward to more of this open forum. (And to answer columbiacounty on issue of "open forum" - I guess when I think "open," in my opinion, it would mean we are all transparent but that is also a naive thought of mine. I guess, no matter how many deals I have closed or lost, good/bad experiences I've had in life, ups, downs, I will always see the glass as half full. See you all out there! Keep on, keepin on. And w67thstreet you can eat my dog anytime ;)

My prediction: From this point to YE 2010, NYC flat to down 5%. LIC in particular, flat to up 5%.

if you are for real, you should take the time to read through this classic exchange.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/9107-highest-and-best-at-the-majestic

2010 will be rough. Upturns will begin in '11.

LICComment, I find it odd that you think LIC will do BETTER than the rest of NYC. It has one of the larger concentration of excess inventory, and a good portion of its cachet was derived from public improvement projects that will probably be delayed based on budget constraints or not turn out as well as hoped.

I think one of the safest predictions that we can make is that, whatever happens to NYC on average, LIC will get it at least 10% worse.

I read "The Rachel Agent Thread" columbiacounty that you posted http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/9107-highest-and-best-at-the-majestic - point taken and I get it.

"LICComment, I find it odd that you think LIC will do BETTER than the rest of NYC. "

Agreed, I think LIC is even more toast than the rest of town.... (it, williamsburg, and other fringe areas)

BTW, I also think its waaaaaaaaay late for brokers to only now complain about being painted with the same brush as their coworkers.

I didn't hear any broker (other than maybe Urban Digs) for YEARS try to say that maybe what their coworkers were doing wasn't so good.

The time for separating yourself is way past, at this point, I find it quite disingenuous.