UD contracts signed > New Listings; Vanishing inventory

its more a function of a rise in listings removed from market, based on data I see here in the backend of the new UD

Noah, care to weigh in on what happens to the thousands who have de-listed? Whenever this issue is discussed it seems it's left for time to tell, but overall assumptions are that they never really go away and that they would return following some seasonal break. In the summer when it was discussed many expected de-listings to flood back after Labor Day but not sure we saw it happen. I have never bought into the argument as I feel many who leave the market do so because they were unable to hit their number. Leaving a so called falling market to return later doesn't make any sense. Are they gone for good or do you predict they flood back in spring with lower expectations?

its a great questions, and to be honest, a question we are digging heavily into to find out more information. That is one metric that we will break down as much as possible to try to answer that question. I dont want to say much more until we launch, maybe late Jan if things go as planned.

But things will get much clearer when this new platform is out there for you guys! I promise you

...they couldn't possibly have higher expectations, could they?

spin, people get tired of having something on the market for more than six months, particularly during the holidays. it's not at all rare to take something off, hoping that when it shows up again in new listings a new group of buyers will see it and show some interest.

i think your perception of a lack of increase in inventory post-labor day actually reflects a continued strong level of sales, not a decline in new and re-listings. to be honest, given these sales levels i am quite surprised that inventory has remained this high, which is quite a bit above "normal," even though i haven't noticed a huge number of new development listings relistings, which i expect to be quite significant after the new year. a large percentage of sales (although this has been changing a bit in the last few months) have been skewed toward the lower end of the market, where people are still paying fairly high amounts for tiny shoeboxes, albeit ones that come complete with low mortgage rates and conforming loans. for their sakes i hope they're buying enough space to hold them over for at least five years. but for many i doubt it. the young and/or perpetually priced out realy have the got to get in the game to play it mentality.

So they all return with renewed hope amid increased competition?

Gotta run to the gym. Later...

increased competition in some areas, for some product. probably decreased demand for some product, as those looking in the lower price range either have bought or decide to wait. increased demand possibly in the $1-2mm range, but how much and for how long is a good question, and whether that will be affected by credit availability issues and/or developers lowering prices on new developments is hard to tell. the other unknown is how many boomers at or near retirement age will find NY less attractive as taxes go up and prices remain low in other areas.

so many variables, so few crystal balls. long-term fundamentals remain roughly the same, but short to medium term all sorts of fun (and not so fun) things could happen.

spinnaker

Spot on, it's foolish to judge anything that's going on without at the very least a full quarter of information.
And the point you bring up made me think of this building right away (one of several I'm sure)
245 Tenth Avenue. 22 units pulled off the market with rumours of broker change.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/245-tenth-avenue-new_york

AR: regarding the increased demand in the $1-2 mm range, do you think all the new inventory in rentals coming on the market will alter demand. Not just the abundance in W'burg that must eventually have some effect on Manhattan but also the new Manhattan rentals coming on the mkt. Those Silver Towers, The Sessanta, 200 West 72nd St (rentals begin in Feb) and the W. 67th St building (huge!) that is coming on the mkt later in Spring. It seems that these buildings are targeting the income group that would otherwise be buyers in the $1 -2mm range.

Why would anyone list a property at this time of year, two weeks before Christmas? So it can stagnate for three weeks while no one is looking and appear stale by the time the new year's rush comes?

The numbers are not surprising given that existing sellers are probably desperate to get deals done, while would-be sellers are holding off until after the new year.

My significant other and I had identified end of this week/early next week as the time we would try lowball offers if we saw anything we liked in September/October that was still on the market. (In the end, we didn't find anything we liked enough to even lowball.) Traffic is steadily declining, and the new year is still far enough away that a bird in the hand, however small, might be worth more to sellers.

lad read below:

http://www.nydailynews.com/real_estate/2009/12/11/2009-12-11_fast__furious_these_local_condos_are_flying_off_the_shelves.html

apt23, i didn't say a huge increase in demand, but i expect there is some pent-up demand in that area that will be affected by bonuses. real estate is for many still an emotional thing. but yes, i think the huge number of rentals in those buildings will have an affect on the $1mmish market. in the higher end of that market, the condo rentals ought to have a huge impact. but what we might see first is some increase in sales, a further weakening of the rental market for such units leading to either lower rental prices and/or need to sell those units, and then a further weakening of the sales market.

we're at a point where there is enough cheerleading and blinders that some will again get sucked in at "lemming" prices. but there are only so many people who have the cash and the credit to do so. if you need to sell, after the new year might be the best time you'll see for quite awhile.