STEVEF gets the stock market direction award for 2009

Nice call, Stevie! Now did you put some cash behind that call?

Huge pent up desire to sell and take profits. The current apparent complacency is scary. We're going to see a major correction, sooner rather than later. I called the bottom on March 6 and put my money on it. Six bagger on some of those. Didn't foresee the 1100 and have legged out of most positions. Left some money on the table. 90% cash and smiling. I'm willing to forego the putative 10% upside. Easier to get out on the way up, than on the way down. Remaining equities are high dividend stocks, (qualified cap gns). and some "pennies" that don't react to the market shenanigins. Getting some yield on the cash is a whole different story. I'm not a mutual fund manager trying to beat the averages.

Gaongaon, people have been saying that there would be a correction since last JULY. Hasn't happened.

Hats off to SteveF.

yes, indeed, evnyc. let's see if he gets out in time. we've been stuck in a trading range for a long time. Hats off to Steve, I agree. I've seen sell-offs when everyone has expected the end of year window dressing, starting a couple of days earlier. I've seen selloffs starting on Jan.2. In the meantime I daytade a certain stock making 1400 a day. I'm willing to re-evaluate say around Jan. 15.

How many times does steveF need to be correct (pent up demand this past spring was another one of steveF's calls) before the bears will stop challenging him? No one that has received more abuse on this board from bears than steveF, maybe he actually knows what he is talking about? Where is nyc10022 who said there is no pent up demand or stevejhx who said the market would never recover? Go ahead guys, time to kiss the ring of steveF.

It's easy to make calls about the market. Believe it or not, any guess about the direction of the market is going to be right about 50% of the time. What I'd like to know is whether SteveF put any money behind that talk, and if so how much / what fraction of his net worth / what fraction of his apartment value.

It's easy to talk a big game when you got nothing at stake. I wanna know where his he put his life savings.

Juiceman, a better question would be "When is Steve F going to stop acting like a cheerleader for NYC real estate?" The guy also said that real estate would never go down and that all that pent-up demand would result in price appreciation. He wasn't exactly an oracle. He was also one of the more vociferous "there will be no crash/there will be no crash in NYC" bulls. He just happened to be one that actually stuck around and kept posting (mercifully with less frequency) once he'd been proved wrong.

Actually, MF, that was me.

Thanks Manhattan Fox. I post less now b/c there is really nothing to predict anymore. Both markets real estate and equities are heading in the right direction. I do however think we will have strong demand this spring season. I think demand will put a serious dent into inventory. I feel this b/c those who might've sold are in a much better state of mind and will probably hold off. i also feel that those waiting until the EOY will finally make their move. I also am still pondering the "shadow inventory" that J Miller frequently talks about. It doesn't make sense for Manhattan inventory at least. Too much to talk about. Another thread?.
Anyhow yes I have been invested in small caps. I love market caps of around 500 million. Check out Teldar paper but ahh don'y quote me :) or check out LPHI, Lifetime Partners( unbelievable fundamentals). Could the life settlements industry be the future for wall street. Hedge funds looking to diversify by buying pools of life settlements with returns having no correlation to economic factors. I think so. I hate predicting stock movements but there it.

Anyhow, thanks for the kind words everyone. I wish you all the best for 2010!

December is clearly the SteveF/Alpie victory lap month.

The award goes to the optimists!

Congrats!!! It's hard to swim against such strong currents. I admire conviction and consistancy.
Keep up the good work in 2010.
Haters....take note!

"Juiceman, a better question would be "When is Steve F going to stop acting like a cheerleader for NYC real estate?" "

The guy owns a couple properties in Manhattan, why wouldn't he be a cheerleader? How is this any different the all of the renters on this site trying to will down prices / spread fear so they can finally afford to buy?

"He was also one of the more vociferous "there will be no crash/there will be no crash in NYC" bulls."

Not sure about that evnyc. I think steveF started posting here after the crash, but I could be mistaken.

"Soon he'll post something saying "wow" and introducing a pot and kettle in his typical style."

hfscomm1 is growing on me

Comment: fooled by randomness

Juice, he's been on here for longer than I have, and I've been on the board since before the crash. There's a world of difference between being a mindless cheerleader and making calls based on analysis. Plenty of people have or do own properties in Manhattan; some of them are quite bullish. Your point is well taken that the bulls are not always correct.

"How is this any different the all of the renters on this site trying to will down prices / spread fear so they can finally afford to buy?"

You really think that a few anonymous posters on a real estate website have the power to move the market?! The market does what the market does without reference to the board.

"December is clearly the SteveF/Alpie victory lap month."

How so? Many of us RE bears have been quite long equities alongside SteveF. Our pessimistic views are not on all mankind, just NYC RE specifically and have been able to put a lot of new money in because our cash was not tied up in RE. As far as I can tell, NYC RE is still in the dumps to the tune of 30% since 2008. That's very far down to be on a big levered investment, something like 300% of a 10%-down investment made in 2007 when SteveF expressing very bullish views on RE, never mind the negative carry.

So let's be realistic here: congrats to SteveF for being long the market with whatever cash he didn't have tied up in RE, especially if he added to his holdings after the crash. However, with the extent of his RE holdings, if he were to mark his RE down 30% to the current market, I don't see how he'd be up since pre-crash unless he somehow withheld boatload of cash from RE investing back then to invest in stocks this year, which I definitely didn't get an impression of.

How's about we save the victory laps for people whose net worths are actually higher than a year-and-a-half ago?

"You really think that a few anonymous posters on a real estate website have the power to move the market?! The market does what the market does without reference to the board."

I completely agree evnyc, my point was, what difference is a cheerleader vs. a doom and gloomer? If you are upset at steveF for being too optimistic then be upset and all the other fools that called for 50% declines.

"How's about we save the victory laps for people whose net worths are actually higher than a year-and-a-half ago?"

What's amazing inonada is that if people just played it safe for 2009 and didn't react to the fear in the market, the net worth doesn't look as bad as it did at the end of 2008 and my guess it will look even better in 2010. Trick was not panic (or listen to the end of the world idiots on streeteasy).

Hi hfscomm1. Baby is doing great, he rolled over today so there is a big celebration at grandma's house. He is a good boy.

Grr, shorted the market in March. How about you guys who made $$ over the last year buy me dinner?

Juice, I don't know why you think I'm upset. Nor do I understand why you think SteveF's stock market call was such a coup. I do think you're mischaracterizing a lot of people on this board as "doom and gllomers." For instance, I expect you'd lump me in that camp, and you'd realize that you're wrong if you bothered to read my posts. If you'd listened to SteveF and bought the instant the market froze up, you'd still be underwater on your apartment, so he's not exactly an oracle of reason or truth.

Juiceman, you have also been a pillar of strength that I have no doubt others have gained confidence and inspiration from. Thank you for providing us with your intelligence and insight. I, for one, am a great admirer. Good Luck in 2010 JM! God bless you and your family.

Happy to see someone admit that there has been well-founded optimism. I bought ETN, CISCO,GS,GE and more in March and have not regretted it. Bought a NYC apartment in August and so far have not regretted it. Fingers crossed that 2010 will be a good year...

JM, holding the line is one thing, but it's another thing to look at the azz-spanking the market delivered, your investments down 30-50% depending on the exact timing, and then dig deep and say "OK, let's throw a boatload more cash at it". You just gotta have conviction in your analysis. Whether you did it with stocks or NYC RE, I've got respect for you. I happen to think you're wrong if you did it on NYC RE, right if you did it on stocks. So far, doing it with stocks has been rewarded.

What I have no respect for is to think NYC RE is the greatest investment ever, see prices drop a crazy and unprecedented 30%, which should be the silliest thing ever according to your worldview (akin to all stocks dropping to zero on a risk-adjusted basis), and not buy any RE whatsoever.

nyc10023, we've all made many, many money-losing decisions over our investing lifetimes. The key is to not judge the decisions on the outcomes, but rather the information at hand. I.e., if things had gone the other way post-March, you shouldn't really feel differently about your decision.

And if it makes you feel any better, I don't think the past year has been all wines-and-roses for many of us that "did OK" either.

"Nor do I understand why you think SteveF's stock market call was such a coup"

Didn't say it was a coup, hell I don't even agree with steveF half the time. My point was that he has been right and on more than just the market direction. Additionally, steveF has received a ton of abuse on this board and has taken it in stride. Thought it was worth pointing out.

"For instance, I expect you'd lump me in that camp, and you'd realize that you're wrong if you bothered to read my posts."

Why would you expect that? Do I have a habit of lumping people into buckets for the hell of it?

"JM, holding the line is one thing, but it's another thing to look at the azz-spanking the market delivered, your investments down 30-50% depending on the exact timing, and then dig deep and say "OK, let's throw a boatload more cash at it".

Agreed, but how about being all cash pre-Lehman except for retirement accounts and real estate? Recently limped back into the market, but not enough to make a difference. So paper net worth is probably down in long terms but liquidity is actually up due to earnings, refinancing of debt at attractive rates, and some (minimal) gains from re-entering the market. Is it sexy? No. Did it work? Yes.

"What I have no respect for is to think NYC RE is the greatest investment ever"

I've never said owner occupied real estate was an investment. Will my real estate "investments" over time be cheaper than renting? You betcha. That's about all I think of investment wise when it comes to the place I live. The place I rent out I lived in for five years, is cash flow positive, and will be paid for in less than 10 years. That was also a pretty good "investment" and one people told me not to make when I bought the place.

"we've all made many, many money-losing decisions over our investing lifetimes. The key is to not judge the decisions on the outcomes, but rather the information at hand."

I think that is well said inonada

JM, you're being unnecessarily defensive here. There's still huge problems in the real estate market; stevef is still not very bright and has an ego the size of Texas. He's a silly if intermittently entertaining poster despite the correct call on the stock market; a number of his other calls have been real forehead-smackers. So he earned the derisiveness he gets on the board, just as some of the more aggressively bearish posters do.

"Will my real estate "investments" over time be cheaper than renting? You betcha."

Not if you're selling every seven years like the average American does. Buy a place and stick with it for thirty years, and yes, economically you'll come out ahead over time. No argument there. But is that what you see most people doing?

I've been saying this since Spring. Stick with small caps.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHIAX#chart7:symbol=shiax;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Thanks for the tip, but I'll stick with diversification and indexing. So far it seems to be working well enough; I did nothing during the panic except keep shoveling money into my retirement accounts, and seem to be ahead for the year overall. I'm not a trader; I don't do stock picking or shorts or options or any of that. Buy and hold and index - and don't sell into panics.

JM, the "greatest investment ever" comment was directed towards steveF, not you. I don't think you've been a big cheerleader like him. Thanks for sharing your standings, always curious to hear where people are in terms of their positions, purchases, and sales to put comments into perspective.

"JM, you're being unnecessarily defensive here."

Defensive? Not at all. If you don't like steveF that's fine, I was simply giving another point of view. If you don't agree, it is not my job to try and change your mind.

"Not if you're selling every seven years like the average American does."

I think that depends on a lot of things evnyc. I trust that I have made the best choices for my family and my wallet but admittedly have more of a long range real estate view than most. The numbers can still work if you buy smart and think long, just like they always have.

No disagreement. However, please note that SteveF thinks NY real estate a) can never go down, and b) is the greatest investment ever. Do you really agree with those statements? I don't, at least not enough to wade into the market at these prices. Greatest city ever, sure that I can get behind. But economically it's tough to make a rational case for buying here (vs. renting), especially if you can't afford a place that meets your long-term needs. I'm not questioning your choices for your family or wallet. I continue to question Steve's market wisdom, however. Thanks for the perspective; I was already quite aware of Steve's views.

"However, please note that SteveF thinks NY real estate a) can never go down, and b) is the greatest investment ever."

evnyc, these are so obviously shallow (and incorrect) statements that I wonder why some people on this site spend any time discussing them. I don't think I've seen steveF write either of those statements, so I'd be careful putting words in his mouth (I could be wrong, of course!), but even if someone did propagate these thoughts here (and I'll note, there has been at least one thread claiming real estate is never a good investment - in the same boat as far as I'm concerned), I'd think it would just be easier to ignore and move on to the meatier discussions, no?

"please note that SteveF thinks NY real estate a) can never go down, and b) is the greatest investment ever."

steveF, is this your position?

JM, i don't know if you noticed stevejhx's revival of a steveF gem, so i thought it might bear reposting on this thread.

Let's put steveF into Ponzi perspective:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3181-poll-whats-going-to-happen-to-re-market-in-ny

SteveF "I'm trying to create value for my condos. If I feel street easy influences that than I'll be there to counter anyone who prevents that. I want [prospective condo buyer] to buy to increase value. This way I win and all apt owners win. It could be the never ending, everyone wins ultimate pyramid scheme."

So stevef owns properties and wants them to appreciate.

You live in a market rate rental and you want someone to pay you treble money damages.

Oh, also, you "fit in as a person in a household which makes a certain amount of money that makes it very cost ineffective for [you] to work in a traditional sense."

AR, I've asked what steveF's position is, I'm sure he will answer when he sees the post. The fact that he wants his properties to appreciate is clear, and IMO irrelevant to the points above.

why wait, JM? from the same thread, 21 months ago.

"Once this "credit crisis'has passed and Manhattan real estate was shown not to be impacted you can bet the house that everyone and their mother will be rushing to buy..this will be the mentality.."Manhattan is indestructible I have to have a piece!" so there will be a surge in prices and renters worst nightmare. Well, we are already 8 months into the crisis and the national scene has deteriorated, maybe bottomed, yet we prosper...time is running out Manhattan housing bears... "

Ok AR, I now see your point.

JuiceMan,
Thanks bro. My position is real estate prices/sales of course can go down for each local area for the short term. The reason why Manhattan prices did not drop as much as the national market is due to no subprime activity aka coop boards. i've been saying that since day 1. So we had what a 10% drop from some peak level(whatever that means). So what? In 5 years prices will probably double for manhattan.

evnyc.. the reason why I take some much abuse is b/c I bring the bears biggest fears...if I was an idiot, you guys would just ignore me but my posts hit home with the truth and it hurts so what do people do they "Lash" out like little kids do.

Anyhow, I talked about (1) no subprime for Manhattan, I brought up (2) Pent up Demand and I posted about the (3)"must sell sellers". These are what I brought to the table and to Urbandigs before Noah even knew what I was talking about. So let's cut out all the BS still holding out bears. You were wrong. Done.

Um, we had a 25-30% drop. Or did you not notice that, Steve?

the point was that you claimed to have called the bottom and yelled the BUY signal in early 2009, right at the bottom. When in reality, you argued against ANY potential adjustment in Manhattan in March 2008, so called, 8 months into the crisis.

Lets just keep it as it is SteveF.

Hey I nailed the downturn, in the face of serious arguments from bulls before it happened, including yourself. Spunky knows this too from late 2007 threads and very early 2008 threads right here.

If I was wrong in calling for the pent up demand BEFORE they came out of the woodwork, fine. Its a fools game to predict exactly when pent up demand will actually come out and buy. However, I am on record for saying they DID come out and buy in May, June, and into July publicly on UrbanDigs - as it happened.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/07/new_contact_info_email.html

"FOR THE MOST PART, IT SEEMS TO ME THAT PENT UP DEMAND HAS EITHER MADE THEIR PURCHASE OR RETURNED TO THE SIDELINE. THE COMFORT ZONE, WHERE BUYERS RE-EMERGED WHEN PRICES ADJUSTED ENOUGH, WAS REACHED AROUND LATE-MARCH TO EARLY-APRIL. ACTION WAS ESPECIALLY HOT DURING MAY & JUNE AS EVIDENCE BY 'CONTRACTS SIGNED' & 'INVENTORY' TRENDS FOR THAT PERIOD. YOU CANNOT DENY THAT THIS TOOK PLACE."

But you kept calling for it throughout 2008 - at least admit it. Then it happened some 12 months AFTER you originally started to call for it, and after a fierce adjustment DOWN in prices that you claimed would never occur. So saying you called the pent up demand before I did, really is not saying much.

My job is not to predict when pent up demand will 'kick in'.

Steve, cmon lets be real now. How do you ignore this comment of yours in MARCH 2008, then say you hit the bottom BUY call in Manhattan for early 2009?:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3181-poll-whats-going-to-happen-to-re-market-in-ny

"You housing bears know your waiting day in and day out for the credit crisis to ...hit! and yet the days go by with Manhattan unaffected and recovery getting closer and closer. "Is the Fed injecting close to a trillion dollars into the banking system having an impact yet?!" "Man this crisis better hit!" The days proceed along as you get more and more anxious....that has got to be one s-cky feeling. Just buy already. "

Isn't this fun?

25-30% drop in what sales, prices, studios, 2 beds? must be listing inventory. yes inventory. evnyc, how in the h-ll are you still waiting to buy?? how did you miss that late 08/early 09 buying opportunity of a lifetime?!?!!!!!!...what is the color of the sky in your world man? geez. so stupid.

Yes, it is! Although I really have to get back to writing and editing and all that boring stuff now, or I'm gonna blow a deadline.

Owning is always better than renting for anyone of taste. If you want to live in a rental box, ok, but no one can say that the quality and experience is the same. Renting is simply unnatural. In NYC it has only been supported by rent stabilization or rent control which, in addition to keeping prices low, also means perpetual rights to rent. Otherwise everyone would be striving to own. But the well off do anyway.

we all know it hit 6 months later in SEP 2008, and the distress lasted another 6 months to get to the best BUYING deals that in reality occurred in March 2009. it took a good 6 months for the best deals to be had, after the freeze up started. I recall in November and December of 2008, after Lehman, nobody believed me when I discussed how deals were happening some 15-20% from peak levels - I got so much shit from that article on UD.

Then, a few months later, people started to see it and believe it.

NOV 8th, 2008 - http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/11/ny_times_a_dowturn_begins.html

"If I had to estimate where we are right now, I think we had the quick adjustment of 12%-18% from peak levels already, with pockets of distress doing deals at lower levels or wherever a serious bid that can get financing comes in at."

We can debate all day long who is right and who is wrong about exactly when pent up demand started, when a stock buy call came in, etc..lets just keep it real and admit when we made a wrong argument.

Like I said before, I admit I was wrong about the sustainability of the reflation improvement in bids from March 09 lows, for at least the first 3-4 months of it.

Here is one of my WRONG calls on that exact topic - http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/05/why_broker_uptick_reports_are.html

Here is another - http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/03/picky_patient_the_buyerseller.html

Hey, I got the 'countertrend surge in activity' comment and gut feeling flat out WRONG! I did not expect it to last as long as it did or for bids to improve for as long as they did! But they did, and I cant deny that and had to adjust. Nothing wrong with saying Im wrong on a past call!

"evnyc, how in the h-ll are you still waiting to buy?? how did you miss that late 08/early 09 buying opportunity of a lifetime?!?!!!!!!...what is the color of the sky in your world man? geez. so stupid."

At least I'm not down 30% on an illiquid investment and my stocks are in fine fettle. The 25-30% drop is average. In Manhattan, no less. You're the one who claimed that "Manhattan is indestructible I have to have a piece!" - watch who you call stupid. You may also want to try actually reading the comps threads, or the price choppers thread, for some actual data.

BJW, missed your comment earlier - I believe that thread was looking at real estate as an investment - like from a flipping standpoint. Real estate has traditionally operated as a form of forced savings and hedge against inflation. It did not make leaps and bounds in value the way stocks can and do - and trying to make it into one is an ongoing disaster.

high end definitely saw trades at 25-30% from peak levels - look at

490 WEA - 9B sale signed in March
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/283224-coop-490-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

1165 Park - classic 7,8 sales in April, May
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211308-coop-1165-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/376309-coop-1165-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

There are others. Do these not count? They traded. But what surprises me is how small the fear trade window was. First off, the 25-30% deals were NOT right away after Lehman. I keep explaining this and I work in the field here so I see it. The adjustment to those deals took a good 6 months, and the environment had to become one of fear and desperation to see deals 30%, 35% etc. off peak levels. High end got hit harder than low end, and that makes alot of sense given nature of the crisis.

The best buys were NOT right after Lehman, rather, the best deals were had in that fear period between February & March 2009 when nobody knew what big firm would fail, when systemic risk was still on the table, when credit was still getting blown out, when equities were on their last leg to the ultimate lows for his cycle. Lets be clear on that. Then it took 2-3 months for these trades to clear.

So, look at contracts signed in FEB & MARCH for the best buys from the adjustment down we had in price action across all price points - again, higher end hurt the most.

Noah,
I've been saying "buy" since I've been on these boards. The most secure factor to making money in real estate is youth. The younger you are the better. Don't buy your first investment property when you are 60 yo buy when you are 25 yo. My studios are down about 8% from their previous average highest listing prices in the past. Do I really care if I am owning for the next 30 years? It just infuriates me when the snakes come out with whatever rhetoric they need to get what they want. i have to respond. Especially the ones who are gleeful about job layoffs.

well, it got heated before the adjustment happened. Yes, I dont like those that seem feel empowered by higher unemployment because they 'predicted' it. Nobody likes to see people get laid off.

Im in a unique position. I got so many seller calls throughout mid 2008-mid 2009, that 12 month period where there was serious distress. People that bought 1-2 years earlier, planned to keep it, but for whatever reason now had to sell and just couldnt get a price they wanted. Instead, bids came in at levels that would cause major major losses and pain - pain that they just were not ready to take, both financially and emotionally. I recall 5-6 of these calls in specific detail. The pain and worry on the other side of the phone was disturbing to me, especially from the ones that lost their job and never thought in a 100 years that could happen to them - so they levered up and bought for all the right reasons, so they thought.

real estate can be a very legit deal over the long run for the right buyer. but sometimes, shit happens, and sometimes real estate can be a nightmare for people. This is what happened. The american dream turned into the american nightmare. Even those that bought 20 years ago, and tapped the home ATM throughout the bubble and then was left with nothing but debts and no equity left in a house whose value dropped 30-35%. The story is sad.

Real estate should be very personal, should be a wise decision, a decision that was saved up for, and a decision where worst case scenarios are taken into account in case a job is lost, or a divorce happens, or if some other hardship hits. Too often we see people buy because they come to these boards and they believe in an argument that one bull happens to make. I cant tell you how many buyer clients I have had over the years that bring up streeteasy forums and discussions prior to the buy decision. How do they know who is writing behind a preset sscreen name? Who is this person? What is their financial situation? Did they get an inheritence and now consider themselves savvy real estate owners?

reminds me of this guy that my wife's circle of friends all hate. He inherited tons. The guy doesnt work, never has, inherited a rent stabilized apt, tons of investment property, and tons of money. Outside of that he accomplished nothing, not a dime. Never held a job. Sits back and reaps the rewards of others that was passed down. Then has the nerve to sit back like a King at parties, with a cigar in his mouth, and criticize everyone's take on the markets and use his ownership status and investment income as proof that he is all-knowing. this is a guy that argued with me for over an hour at a 2008 new years eve party (Dec 31st 2007), that there was no credit crisis, that his properties can never go down, that manhattan is an island and immune to macro forces, and that he will always be able to tap his properties for more money if he needed it - he believed so deeply in his arguments and never even knew what a mortgage backed security was. Just that his holdings were the product of his all knowing ego.

UGH, that pisses me off!

It seems to me that while SteveF "called it", the only thing that kept him from losing his entire net worth and going negative is his belief that his studios are only down 8% from the peak. Do you seriously believe that steveF, given all the evidence to the contrary?

Hmmm..... lets see. I told everyone to buy SSOs in the dow 6s 7s and 8s. I told folks on this board I was 100% stock (it was in the 8s or low 9s, can't remember for sure).... Referenced the Shiller article 3-4 days before the bottom and said I was still in stocks... I said over and over again, that stocks are where to be, not RE.

And the guy who was 100% wrong on the RE side gets more credit than me.

Wow, man, do the bulls rewrite history.

Then again, when you're that wrong, I guess you have to.

Yes, stocks were the right call. Told you so. RE was not. Told you so there, too.

woo-hoo!

"Noah,
I've been saying "buy" since I've been on these boards."

Yes, you said buy RE right before it tanked. Nice job! As we said, you're a moron.

> My studios are down about 8% from their previous average highest listing prices in the past

And I bought the S&P and it went up 8000%. So there, I win in the denial olympics!

wow, moron.

"Real estate has traditionally operated as a form of forced savings and hedge against inflation. It did not make leaps and bounds in value the way stocks can and do - and trying to make it into one is an ongoing disaster

well said, ev.

Thanks!

"Owning is always better than renting for anyone of taste. If you want to live in a rental box, ok, but no one can say that the quality and experience is the same."

Yes, for me, its much better for renting. I guess a super high end building, with features you can't get in any sales building - there was a thread on this - and I essentially get it all for free, because renting was so much cheaper.

lots of low quality crap boxes bought by people in the last 10 years. even the "luxury" stuff, plenty of it falling apart now.

> But the well off do anyway.

Ah, showing your ignorance (not that we didn't know already)

Steve, cmon lets be real now. How do you ignore this comment of yours in MARCH 2008, then say you hit the bottom BUY call in Manhattan for early 2009?:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3181-poll-whats-going-to-happen-to-re-market-in-ny

"You housing bears know your waiting day in and day out for the credit crisis to ...hit! and yet the days go by with Manhattan unaffected and recovery getting closer and closer. "Is the Fed injecting close to a trillion dollars into the banking system having an impact yet?!" "Man this crisis better hit!" The days proceed along as you get more and more anxious....that has got to be one s-cky feeling. Just buy already. "

ROTL!

Wow, steve told everyone to buy, and then the market lost 25%

Oh my god, steveF is a complete idiot, its now been proven!

> It seems to me that while SteveF "called it",

Except he didn't. If you take his March 2008 call, we're down 25-30% since then, no?

Sounds like a 100% wrong call to me.

somewhereelse....please check into the nearest mental ward.

inonada, what do you want from me? I'm telling you the drop off from the highest list/sold prices I can remember. Probably was around late 07/early 08. I could have sold one of my condos @ around 485k now probably around 440-450k. But I'm betting on a strong spring if December's pace is any indication.(see below).
Maybe the luxury market is down 25% NOT the lower end.

http://origin.ny1.com/1-all-boroughs-news-content/top_stories/111091/city-real-estate-may-face-smoother-ride-in-2010

> somewhereelse....please check into the nearest mental ward.

SteveF, I'm sorry we've proven that you're a moron, but lashing out isn't going to help....

> I could have sold one of my condos @ around 485k now probably around 440-450k.

Now I thought SteveF was dumb before, but this is insane. Steve's market data is what he thinks his investments are "worth". He's just like the idiots in the rest of the country who are now in foreclosure.

> Maybe the luxury market is down 25% NOT the lower end.

If you're saying the luxury market is down more than the low end, then it would have to be MORE than 25-30%... as the entire market overall is down 25-30%.

Sorry to scare you with numbers or anything.

>Now I thought SteveF was dumb before, but this is insane. Steve's market data is what he thinks his investments are "worth". He's just like the idiots in the rest of the country who are now in foreclosure<

what the heck are you talking about?? of course I know what they are worth. what investor wouldn't know. It's not what I think it's the facts. It's called comps. Ever hear of it....why do I waste my time responding to these people.

> of course I know what they are worth. what investor wouldn't know.

Uh..... you, perfitz, most of America.

If folks really knew what their RE was worth, it wouldn't have CRASHED.

moron.

> But I'm betting on a strong spring if December's pace is any indication.(see below).

Let me get this right.... Steve calls RE UP, it goes down 25%, and then his "good news" is that it might stop falling.

Genius.

"And the guy who was 100% wrong on the RE side gets more credit than me."

Boo-hoo. You told people to buy stocks at the bottom? Congratulations. It astounds me that people genuinely expect others to follow their investment advice on an anonymous internet board.

wow, there is that pimple again.

Thirteen-year-olds do get a lot of pimples - you shouldn't be surprised you have so many.