2010 predictions /Manhattan RE

interest rates rise into the high fives towards the end of the year, and that drives a spate of panic buying, but we still see low volume, roughly equivalent to this year or up about 10%; prices down 3-5% in terms of "averages;" market liquidity rises to around the $1.5 million price point, but the $2mm - $4mm market still slow as h-ll.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Buy now or be priced forever!

out

wouldn't higher interest rates drive a spate of panic sellers as well?

Sell now or be listed forever!

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/12/noahs_2010_predictions.html

mine are up!

a continuation of 2009, but we see more developers drop prices, but sales still dont pick up becuase the buyers just arent there. hence more properties go into default. rental market continues to collapse until people move back in from the boroughs.

How can people move back into Manhattan from the borougs while at the same time there are no buyers? You seem to have contradicted yourself.

"I also cannot deny that the forces described above will not have an effect on our market"

I think there is an extra "not" in your newsletter: "I cannot deny that [they] ... WILL HAVE an effect...."

Even still, I would avoid the whole construction "I cannot deny" as it can't do anything but [not?] lead to confusion.

el presidente..pls read my statement closely

oops, thanks stevejhx...fixed now

2010 will be the year of the bewildered bleed for Manhattan RE.

Stocks will continue their rise to get back to pre-Lehman levels driven by earnings, with unemployment decreases and a consensus that we are on a sub-normal cyclical upswing firmly in place. RE will for the most part muddle along, with pundits questioning the RE-free recovery. In Manhattan, stories of developer and individual default will become more common but still limited. The market has deep pockets that will continue to finance the bewildered bleed.

A little bleed (few percent) will come in the form of small drops in nominal prices. A little bleed (few percent) will come in the form of inflation. A little bleed (few percent) will come in the form of negative carry compared to rent. Owners will be oblivious to the bleed, thinking they're flatbfor the year in their mental accounting, but will be bewildered by the fact that stocks have fully-recovered bit RE has not. Thinking the turn is around the corner, they will just get ready for another year of bleed. Some transactions will happen, but prices will be driven by bewildered bleed mentality.

Do you get the feeling that things will be clearer starting in Sept. or Oct. of 2010? i don't mean "better" --- I just mean easier for making a decision about whether or not to buy.
(Or am I just deluded because Sept. is when i hope to actively engage in this market again?)

What I meant was:
I predict that things will be clearer by Sept. 2010: we will more clearly be able to see that we should buy (and buy low!) OR we will clearly see that we should refrain from buying a while longer ...................

Or am i just suffering from bewildered bleed mentality?

LOL, poorishlady, I think that's just plain bewildered. BTW, if an investment decision ever seems clear, you should be very worried. A favorite quote of mine from GS's Blankfein in June 2007 before he became evil for not blowing up alongside the rest of the dummies:

'How does he feel about the markets? “I haven’t felt this good since July 1998” (a month before Wall Street went into a tailspin after the Russian ruble collapsed).'

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/10/business/yourmoney/10lloyd.html

Prediction: Manhattan prices overall continue to fall first two quarters (seasonally adjusted). In Brooklyn's fashionable 'hoods, prices slide slowly all four quarters.

Mortgage interest rates remain essentially unchanged or rising only slightly through 2010. The Fed is not going to raise interest rates at all in 2010, that's my prediction (I might end up eating those words).

I am still hearing from buyers based in Europe looking in Manhattan only. And the most active price point is definitely below the mansion tax.

I tend to agree with Fluter.

flat prices and basically flat rates(approach 6% by end of the year)..no discernible trend til 2011

Yowza, if you think 5% vs 6% is basically flat and roughly the same, I've got a 30yr bond to sell to you.

you know I should have mentioned in the article that the reflation months are yet to be caught by yoy reports. Q1 and Q2 upcoming reports will be compared to prior year reports that basically defined the downturn. so get ready for a reinforcing report for bulls, at least for the next few quarters