Manhattan Prices to Drop! So says Noah Rosenblatt

This is why it's a done deal the real estate market in Manhattan is going to go down or crash this year and I'm advising all my clients to seel sell sell. Price em low and watch em go.

Finally us renters will now sit back and laugh at all you jerks that bought in 2007 and watch your investment tumble. I'll think I'll go out and crack open the champagne bottle.

Yes the prices are going down yaba daba doo. I hope to scoop up great deals this and nest year.

to #103 and #104. Any kind of price decline is not going to help you unless you have plenty of cash. Renting money is no longer going to be cheap/easy.

To those who saved up large cash positions in the last 5 years... congrats! cash is king!

I have a funny feeling that the summer will be slower (as per usual) in Manhattan, but when fall comes around and people start seeing the kind of bonuses they're going to get, all this talk about renters laughing (#103) and real estate going down significantly (#102) will sound EXACTLY the same as it did at this precise time last year in 2006. And the year before that in 2005. And the year before that in 2004. And the year before that.......

I think you're gonna be holding on to that unopened champagne bottle for a l-o-o-o-n-g time #103. And all the while I'll be sitting on the terrace of the condo I own lauging at all you bitter renters, who, if the real estate market does soften, will suddenly find yourselves either:

1. Having to assume MUCH higher interest rates on your mortgage to buy a place with all the (supposed) cash you've saved up.

or,

2. Watching your rental rates consistently go up, year after year after year after year, with no control over your own destiny.

to #106. MMMmmm so according to you.. interest rates have NO bearing on any sector of manhattan real estate?" BTW... check out todays rates!

"10-year note hits 5.32 percent, surpassing Federal Reserve's benchmark rate, as traders fear higher interest rates"

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/13/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2007061307

who is noah rosenblatt and why do I care what he thinks?

Today interest rates are dropping. Wouldn't it be interesting if we head into a recession and interest fall back to all time lows.

"Today interest rates are dropping. Wouldn't it be interesting if we head into a recession and interest fall back to all time lows."

Dream on buddy. Can't lower rates when the rest of the world is raising them. That would be much worse than a recession. That would potentially be the end of Bretton-Woods II and the dollar hegemony.

#92 - wooohooo!

#108 - Noah Rosenblatt is an idiot. Don't believe anything he says. That urbandigs.com site is a complete joke and doesn't have anything useful on it. Personally, I get my investment advice from the NY Post. Best paper ever filled with great investment advice. Thats right!

#109 - "Today inerest rates are dropping" - Umm, what world are you looking at? Rates going down? Rates are rising globally and the world we got used to for the past 5-6 years is gone! How could you possibly argue this!

Let me just say another thing. Yes, Manhattan is filled with wealth, little inventory, and plenty of demand. Buts its hard to say that such a jump in rates and its effect on purchasing power will have no effect. Rates seem to still be heading higher and who knows how high it will end up going.

What I do know is Manhattan real estate is seasonal. We had a very hot JAN-APRIL and now that we are in June, buyer demand is starting to come down. It was a frenzy market with bidding wars in FEB + MARCH with 30+ people at open houses for property's priced right.

Now, its not nearly as active in terms of buyer demand. Add in a surge in lending rates overthe past 3-4 weeks and I can already see how buyers will react at a lag, which they always do. Buyers right now are beginning to realize that monthly payments for a soon to be purchased property are going to be higher than they originally thought. And that makes some re-think their max budget and/or buying in general.

Out of all markets, Manhattan is one of the bext ones to invest in. But after a great 5 months or so, one should expect prices and sales volume to come down. Problem is, you WILL NOT see this happen until the data gets reported to you at a lag! And that means looking at data reports in AUG - OCTOBER which will reflect the 2-3 months prior.

Urbandigs is a forward thinking blog. If you read it, than you know this. I discussed inflation pressures when mass media and everyone else was discussing rate cuts. Now that rates are rising, the media is all over it and the 10YR all of a sudden becomes front page news and the talk of investment discussions. Whats next?

Global economies are still rocking, and the US is still strong as well, although not as strong as Europe & Asia..Keep an eye on oil prices. They have remained in mid 60s for some time to reflect global demand. If oil drops in the future to say low 50s or high 40s, than its a good bet global economies are starting to slow; which is the intended result of rising rates!

Lets call this the "UD props thread"

kudos Noah --