Lemmings rule?

UD has an interesting post on his site http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/01/the_improvement_in_bids_was_pr.html discussing the False Consensus effect. Thought it would be useful to point to it here. It struck a chord with me because a) the mood on SE is emphatically consensual (the 3 letter word often following this is missing, though, LOL) b) real world transactions going on don't seem to match this... [more]

UD has an interesting post on his site http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/01/the_improvement_in_bids_was_pr.html discussing the False Consensus effect. Thought it would be useful to point to it here. It struck a chord with me because a) the mood on SE is emphatically consensual (the 3 letter word often following this is missing, though, LOL) b) real world transactions going on don't seem to match this consensus - Many of the people I know who were looking to buy over the last 2 years have actually bought now, in process, or have faced multiple bids in the last month or so. Remarkable. - the sceptre of vanishing low interests seems to be quite motivating for many. Counterpoint in some SE postings is to buy after prices decline and interest rates have risen, so you can refi later. The real world seems to recognize that the current rates are 100 year lows so this viewpoint does not hold much water -- also a 3.5% FHA loan where usable offers incredible leverage, largely in the +ve direction Back to the UD post -- wonder how herds transition their mentality -- the bull to bear transition on SE presaged the reality or is it backwards compatible with reality Would be very interesting to research Actually, reading UD I also wondered if there are those who actively wish to create a False Consensus, just based on their personality -- nothing nefarious. Do such wonderful souls find haven on SE, or on the ignore list as trolls...? [less]