Housing prices to fall 15% in NY metro area...is it better to rent now?

and more links...
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_realestate/2009/states.html

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NewYork.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2240494520090423

"Thought it was a good time to buy a condo now and sell it 7 yrs down the line."

I am not so confident about even 7 years. The current high inventory and those approved projects in Jersey city conserns me a lot.

Not sure where the 15% decline prediction is coming from. NJ home prices are actually UP 1.5% from April per Case Shiller.

I think the 1.5% up are for SFH. SFH in summit, shorthills, millburn, which have super good school and 35min train ride to NYC, are not declining this year, simply because of high demand and short supply. For condos in cities along hudson, the price is certainly declining for the high inventory.

JB32, it is definitely a buyers market right now, but these buyers are certainly more cautious. One way to think of it is when you are buying a house, condo, apt. you are making an investment and putting money down on an asset that will give you a hopefully positive return in the future. However, when you are renting you are never really making an investment that will give you a positive return on your money. You get no substantial or any return from renting. As one of my recent home buyer clients told me, he would rather put the money he has right now towards a property to call his own, get the tax credit on it, relatively low mortgage rate, and know that he has a real estate asset in his name and ownership. In this market, prices are down 20% in NYC, and as a real estate agent in NYC, I know there are some really good deals in this city. In my opinion, If you have the money, then you should definitely start hunting for the good deals in the city. Plus, mortgage rates it seems are likely to increase in 2010, so starting now would be a good time, before the NYC residential market steadies up. However, this doesn't mean that anyone should go buy a home now just because of all these advantages.First-time and other home Buyers with steady incomes, good credit and financial standing are the ones who will reap the benefits. If you have any questions or would like to continue the discussion, feel free to email me at styagi117r@gmail.com.

Well, I really don't want to make it personal, however, as a potential buyer, I will never work with a realtor who told me it's a good time to buy because the rate is going up and the tax credit is expiring.

A good realtor should let their clients know every fact, for example, when rate is going up, the price will go down because higher rate means high payment each month, means lower affordability. Therefore the raise of rate will lead further drop in price. Thus when you buy with low interest rate and has to sell when the rate is high, you are losing money.

I agree with you that there are deals out there, and the only reason is that, a lot of people have realized that the price will go down further, therefore they know the importance to sell their properties as soon as possible and are willing to discount their properties.

Anyway, my conclusion is:

If you cannot be sure you will be able to hold the property for at least 5 years, don't buy now, because you will loss money when you are selling. (Don't forget you are lossing about 8% even you can sell it at the same price you bought it).

If you can be sure you will be able to hold the property for at least 5 years it's ok to buy if you found a deal, which means at least 10% lower than current market so that you have a safe net for the further drop coming soon. Also, take your time to find the deal, the price is not going up in the next several years.