Wow, mkt declines on impending deverleraging....

I bought SRS a week ago...that baby is already up 10%...look for it to go higher as RE goes lower....

guess its just one more to add to the "bears were right" pile...

gettin ugly again

yep... gonna be paid in stock... so if the strike price is already set and mkt is down 10%... that your lv you 1) richer or 2) poorer...

Can't think.... need a SE genius is there a SE genius here to help?

So what should I buy today? Gold ingots? You know what is a better investment - Fisher Price dollhouse sets and Lego sets. Keep in box and wait until they're discontinued. Instant 100% return.

p.s. be careful of SRS - I bought early last year and got BURNT.

the wizard of oz pez collection. star wars for the male investors.

Pay $80 on amazon for an SUV accessory for a Fisher Price dollhouse. I should have bought 10 of these 2 years ago and stockpiled.

nyc10023.. in case this has been lost on the ppl on the board... I DO NOT BELIEVE that one can "invest/bubble" their way to prosperity. Let the cleansing water inundate us all.... the ones that can tread water (income/earnings/cash flow) will survive... the rest are doomed to drown... sorry, but it's the natural cleansing by the GOD OF CASH FLOW.

yeah. and what happens if even the God of Cash Flow is hit by a currency tsunami. Poseiden rules.

JPM was struck wednesday..mid $40's...GS not struck yet.

sorry..mid $42's

Apt23: yep.

"JPM was struck wednesday..mid $42's...GS not struck yet."

Of course, patient09. That's 'cause GS is the smartest of the crowd and probably had some whisper knowledge of what was about to come. So they make some cryptic announcement that they're going to delay comp to be done after earnings for the first time ever so that it could be viewed "in the context of earnings", whatever that meant. Then, they had their unwitting puppet Obama make his little announcement, send GS stock way down. At the right moment, they'll grant the stock and get a nice low strike.

Hey nyc10023, you want a trade idea? Buy GS whenever they do the stock grant.

its scary what a little knowledge can do

its not deleveraging...its the market reacting to regulation on banks, specifically Obamas plans to regulate prop trading, and the chinese banking regulators getting tough on curbing lending after uber stimulus was applied to stem the crisis...there are no free lunches and there will be unintended consequences when all these policies, ZIRP, accounting changes, liquidity facilities, regulation, etc.. wear off and are reversed...the carry trade can only last for so long on temp policies to benefit banks and help them recapitalize...what goes in, will eventually come out. nothing goes in straight line, but we did rally 62% straight for what, 10 months?

I'm waiting for a rally in USD to buy some foreign currency.

I have been out of stocks for over two years. Missed the last rally, golf buddy got in via Dan "the chartist" Sullivan;anyone have any opinions on this guy?

I am thinking of buying QID? But I'm scared....(:

USD is already at 5 month high...carry trade unwind anyone?

Id say its somewhat of a flight to quality out of the euro and asia trying to support thier exports. greece et al are in shambles and its only getting worse

I agree UD. As we discussed several months ago, I have been out of the market and long UUP. On Tuesday I sold my UUP and moved into EUO because I think that the Euro is really headed for a fall, and I would rather play dollar strength via double short Euro weakness. I also have been shorting a number of stocks, but closing out positions at the end of the day. While we have to be cautious, it does seem to me that we may be setting up for another leg down, and there are certainly a number of stocks in a number of sectors that have really gotten over extended. It is hard to find a catalyst for stocks to go higher in the short term, the question is whether we stay flat, drift lower, or accelerate to the downside. I for one am leaning toward the third, so I have been setting up short positions with tight stops, and so far it has been working.
As for the dollar, the symbolism of Obama standing next to Volkcer was not lost on me. Couple that with Obama "taking on the banks", and Americans wanting deficit reduction to be a priority in an election year, and I think we may have the fundamental makings of a dollar rally.

Ud. Id have to respectfully disagree. Leverage is all about cheap cost of capital and the ability to use this cheap capital willy Nilly. If obamie wants banks to no longer run propr and not do business with hedgies et al., where does the bidding come from to keep earnings/enterprise value/ cash value multiples in the public / private so high? Where does the almost limitless cheap capital come from to chase the next bubbble? Will equity go up 30% this year, 20% then 15%... To infinity? And if volcker gets in the groove and starts playing god again, and pays 8% real rates what does it do for equities? Can equities beat 8% risk free for 5 yrs running? To me cash is king. Almost all mkt participants are no pricing in the 'correct' risk chasing. Which IMHO is what is needed.

Additionally, china tightening was baked in. This Obama announcement to seriously do some much needed regs and punting geitner in the loins was completely unexpected. The mkt is correct to go down and will continue to do so for awhile. FYI gonna prove my lemming thesis much more quickly than I couldve imagined prior to announcement.

My little trade idea is already working like a charm:

"Hey nyc10023, you want a trade idea? Buy GS whenever they do the stock grant."

GS granted at $154.12, and stock is now trading at $156-157. Not bad for a day's work. Now which of you work at Bloomberg and stole my story without quoting me?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFSBpH0jqJLw&pos=3

Nice article in the Economist on deleveraging: http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/economicsfocus/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15269334

Subtitle is The Rich World's Debt Reduction Has Only Begun.

Based on a McKinsey study: "Typically deleveraging began about two years after the beginning of the financial crisis and lasted for six to seven years."

Malthus. Economist, dry but tasty. Yep.. Slow and St