http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100204/FREE/100209936 Manhattan townhouse prices tumble 32% Prices fell last year, but are up nearly 8% over the last two years despite the ravages of the recession. Taken over the last two years, the average sale price for townhouses has increased 7.6%. Over the last decade those prices have risen by 52%. After actually jumping in the first year of the... [more]
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100204/FREE/100209936
Manhattan townhouse prices tumble 32%
Prices fell last year, but are up nearly 8% over the last two years despite the ravages of the recession.
Taken over the last two years, the average sale price for townhouses has increased 7.6%. Over the last decade those prices have risen by 52%.
After actually jumping in the first year of the recession, the average sale price for a Manhattan townhouse plummeted 32% to $5 million last year from 2008, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman and appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc.
The steep decline is somewhat misleading, however, since a number of the bigger deals that closed in 2008 were actually clinched pre-crash in 2007, explained Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Miller Samuel.
In fact, taken over the last two years, the average sale price for townhouses has increased 7.6%. Over the last decade those prices have risen by 52%.
"The townhouse market held its own. There are just a finite number of them," said Dottie Herman, chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman. "If you bought a townhouse it has appreciated."
The number of townhouse sales, which represent just 2% of the overall residential transactions in Manhattan, also remained stable. Number of sales dipped 1.3% to 149 last year from 2008. While listing inventory dropped 15% from 2008, to 402, that figure was similar to the levels seen ten years ago, reflecting the fixed nature of the housing stock.
"It's a niche, high end market that has a very distinct set of buyers, who want historic [property]," said Mr. Miller. "It’s a very distinct housing stock."
But like the condominium and co-op market, the townhouse market is not totally immune to the economic turmoil. The 149 townhouse sales last year and 151 sales in 2008 were well below 249, the average annual number of sales this past decade.
The average square footage of a Manhattan townhouse to sell these past 10 years also remained relatively unchanged. Last year, the average square foot of a townhouse sale was 4,512, similar to the 4,565 square foot average of 2008 as well as the 10-year annual average square footage of 4,481.
“This year it will be more of the same,” said Mr. Miller, adding that he expects sales and prices to move sideways.
[less]
Response by alanhart
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007
More to fall?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by bjw2103
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
I'm not sure what's up with Crain's and all these deceptive headlines, but the real story's in the details here. alan, it sounds like the "experts" don't think prices will really fall given how little of the inventory Manhattan townhouses actually represent. I'm skeptical given that these definitely fall into the "trophy property" class that got hit the hardest, though this is obviously fairly distinct from luxury condos in many ways as well. I'd love a Manhattan townhouse (depending on location, I guess) but this segment is so exclusive, I wonder how much impact it really has on the rest of us.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by bob420
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 581
Member since: Apr 2009
That is a pretty steep and quick price increase during 2008.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by mimi
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1134
Member since: Sep 2008
Townhouses in the upper east side and in Harlem are very different beasts. I wonder about the effect of mixing them in a statistic. Houses in Harlem (I believe it is by far the place in Manhattan with more of this stock) appreciated more than most properties during the bubble, like 4OO% in 5 years...in 2OO3 you could have bought one for less than 2OOk. The transactions of a couple of mansions like the one Madonna bought on the Upper East Side will eschew the numbers as well.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
what goes up must come down.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
"The transactions of a couple of mansions like the one Madonna bought on the Upper East Side will eschew the numbers as well. "
Yeah, they used averages here.
So they did move the number a lot. But is that really skewing? In this case, I think thats the core of the type of apartments we're really talking about. That was the story going up... the super expensive got way more super expensive.
If this were a stat about just plain jain townhouses, not sure we'd care as much....
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by truthskr10
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 4088
Member since: Jul 2009
Miller Samuels 2000-09 townhouse report tells a lot
Those who closed in 2008 might find themselves at perpetual high tide to say the least
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by cldb2010
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1
Member since: Feb 2010
what should the price of a townhouse today be relative to 2005? where can I find this info?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by nyc10023
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008
The TH market has come down a lot from the peak. Hard to generalize but this is my sense:
Single-family <20-footers on the UES east of Lex in decent condition can be had for mid-3s. At the peak, high 4s.
On the UWS, most of the sales are non-vacant THs or multi-fams THs in not great condition. Many are now closing below 3m (for RS/RC ones). Thus far, I haven't seen one close s. of 96 for under 3 (vacant).
Size plays a factor, obviously - a few of the vacant houses have been quite big so even closing at 600/sqft is going to put you over 3 (see 311W74).
Murray Hill - I've seen closings under 3 for vacant single-fams in move-in condition.
As for trophy properties on the UWS, still sky-high due to scarcity. How many single THs are there in pristine condition parkside (CP) on 74th street, 70th street, etc. is what it boils down to? Can't compare those to parkside in the high 80s, 90s or even low 80s.
Can't speak to downtown, prices still seem sky-high to me.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by nyc10023
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008
Lost 90% of my post there.
Too lazy to retype. Prices have come down by a 3rd for non-trophy multi-fam RC/RS properties on the UWS. Haven't seen a closing under 3 for a vacant house w/ no other issues so. of 96. Size plays a factor, of course, some of the closings have been larger properties so even at 600/sqft, not going to get you under 3
(see 311W74 and 317W77). It will be interesting to see closing price at 241W71 and 43 (or is it 41) W 84.
Devil's in the details. Few closing and wide variation in size, condition, and a block diff. in location makes a huge difference.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by nyc10023
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008
cldb: wrong way to think if you're interested in bidding. The pool of buyers has shrunk so much that and for some props, you need to pony up ALL the cash. My sense is that anything goes for the bids, don't look just to the depreciation in general since '05. So much depends on whether it's an estate, has easily correctable issues that lead to unavailability of financing. And quite a few of these "have to" sell sellers don't exactly pretty up their properties...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by somewhereelse
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009
> Lost 90% of my post there.
For a second, I thought you meant 90% of your net worth. ;-)
More to fall?
I'm not sure what's up with Crain's and all these deceptive headlines, but the real story's in the details here. alan, it sounds like the "experts" don't think prices will really fall given how little of the inventory Manhattan townhouses actually represent. I'm skeptical given that these definitely fall into the "trophy property" class that got hit the hardest, though this is obviously fairly distinct from luxury condos in many ways as well. I'd love a Manhattan townhouse (depending on location, I guess) but this segment is so exclusive, I wonder how much impact it really has on the rest of us.
That is a pretty steep and quick price increase during 2008.
Townhouses in the upper east side and in Harlem are very different beasts. I wonder about the effect of mixing them in a statistic. Houses in Harlem (I believe it is by far the place in Manhattan with more of this stock) appreciated more than most properties during the bubble, like 4OO% in 5 years...in 2OO3 you could have bought one for less than 2OOk. The transactions of a couple of mansions like the one Madonna bought on the Upper East Side will eschew the numbers as well.
what goes up must come down.
"The transactions of a couple of mansions like the one Madonna bought on the Upper East Side will eschew the numbers as well. "
Yeah, they used averages here.
So they did move the number a lot. But is that really skewing? In this case, I think thats the core of the type of apartments we're really talking about. That was the story going up... the super expensive got way more super expensive.
If this were a stat about just plain jain townhouses, not sure we'd care as much....
Miller Samuels 2000-09 townhouse report tells a lot
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MTHR09.pdf
Those who closed in 2008 might find themselves at perpetual high tide to say the least
what should the price of a townhouse today be relative to 2005? where can I find this info?
The TH market has come down a lot from the peak. Hard to generalize but this is my sense:
Single-family <20-footers on the UES east of Lex in decent condition can be had for mid-3s. At the peak, high 4s.
On the UWS, most of the sales are non-vacant THs or multi-fams THs in not great condition. Many are now closing below 3m (for RS/RC ones). Thus far, I haven't seen one close s. of 96 for under 3 (vacant).
Size plays a factor, obviously - a few of the vacant houses have been quite big so even closing at 600/sqft is going to put you over 3 (see 311W74).
Murray Hill - I've seen closings under 3 for vacant single-fams in move-in condition.
As for trophy properties on the UWS, still sky-high due to scarcity. How many single THs are there in pristine condition parkside (CP) on 74th street, 70th street, etc. is what it boils down to? Can't compare those to parkside in the high 80s, 90s or even low 80s.
Can't speak to downtown, prices still seem sky-high to me.
Lost 90% of my post there.
Too lazy to retype. Prices have come down by a 3rd for non-trophy multi-fam RC/RS properties on the UWS. Haven't seen a closing under 3 for a vacant house w/ no other issues so. of 96. Size plays a factor, of course, some of the closings have been larger properties so even at 600/sqft, not going to get you under 3
(see 311W74 and 317W77). It will be interesting to see closing price at 241W71 and 43 (or is it 41) W 84.
Devil's in the details. Few closing and wide variation in size, condition, and a block diff. in location makes a huge difference.
cldb: wrong way to think if you're interested in bidding. The pool of buyers has shrunk so much that and for some props, you need to pony up ALL the cash. My sense is that anything goes for the bids, don't look just to the depreciation in general since '05. So much depends on whether it's an estate, has easily correctable issues that lead to unavailability of financing. And quite a few of these "have to" sell sellers don't exactly pretty up their properties...
> Lost 90% of my post there.
For a second, I thought you meant 90% of your net worth. ;-)