get out your crystal balls...

Unfortunately, I don't see the kind of decline everyone talks about. Perhaps a short term rise in prices followed by chaos?

Buy now or be priced out forever! The brokers mantra. Wait it out, then bottom feed.

economistis elaborate please

Let's see:

- unemployment rate continues to be high (9.7%, unemployed folks don't but RE)
- at least 24 months until recovery to pre-recession employment levels (assuming we start creating jobs, http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-the-scariest-jobs-chart-ever-2010-1)
- job losses continue (22K cut in Jan)
- national debt continues increasing (http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
- US spending set to increase (national debt ceiling increased to T$1.9)
- Europe is a financial mess (plus of that: maybe they'll come to NY and buy stuff?)
- taxes set to increase (less money for RE)
- credit continues to be tight (banks are NOT lending. Why? I'm guessing they know RE is a bad investment)
- developers are hurting (how much longer can they sustain debt payments before a) defaulting b) lowering prices?)
- shadow inventory (how much is out there? Eight thousand units in Manhattan? If above is true, this must come to market sometime and lower prices)
- $8K first time buyer credit set to expire (artificial support to begin with)
- prime rate mortgages reset (sub prime was bad, this will be just as bad, death to McMansions)

And finally:
- http://www.commoneo.com/pictureman/pictures/Main/Architecture/case_shiller_november_2009_fullsize.html (what goes up, must come down)

Save your money until 2012. On the other hand, if the Mayans were right..... :)

I see a continuing modest increase, following last quarter's movement, followed by more weakness when the interest rates start increasing. I don't believe we've seen the bottom yet, but it doesn't look like a straight line down.

Sat down hard and cracked BOTH crystal balls.
The're in the shop.
We will get back to you.

LOL falcogold! pulaski, that's exactly what i meant by Scary-not so much myan but the domino effect, & the state of the world's economy. it's a perfect storm!

That's funny: we have one committed bear full of arguments and charts, one ironist, and a bunch of bulls posing as "confused and scared". Where are the standard bearers of bullishness? Guys, don't let yourself be represented by the sissy baby bulls. Rear up your pretty heads! Show us some forceful reasons why RE in Manhattan is bound to go up after Q3, I smell Greek carpenters buying condos in LIC, if their country is bankrupt it must be because they are keeping the billions for themselves... and they are such smart investors they are about to buy into the Rushmore, the Georgica and Beaver House ... BTW Economistis, aren't you Greek? Your moniker sounds greekish...

We had a lot of discussions on this already but I'll chime in with my latest stance on this issue. I think in the spring, we will see a very slight uptick when people who've been waiting over the winter will buy some units. But it'll be very slight.

But it'll slow down and I think we may see further decline in 2010. Jobs numbers and federal stimulus money running out and new taxes may psychologically impact some buyers, too. I was more optimistic when Obama first came in, and I never thought him as a superman, but I'm quite disappointed at how things have turned out in the first year of his office. Still 2 wars to wage (very expensive!!) and all his political capital spent on now dead health care reform. I just don't see how our government will function. To me, this adds to the overall pessimism about the housing market.

Of course, I would like NYC housing prices to fall more. I'd be quite happy with that, and maybe I'm hoping too much here for that to happen. Strangely, my prediction is based on overall pessimism about the economy and our government. Oh, and the insane school entrance process that may drive some middle class people out to the burb schools.