what is new development ready/pipeline?

isn't this sorta something se posters should know......

jim, there's so much bad info disseminated that it's pretty daunting to research a more reliable figure. I did this for Williamsburg as you remember, and used info from Streeteasy but also any outside info on other sites, as well as knowledge from walking around the neighborhood. That's much tougher to do on a city-wide scale (even if it's just Manhattan). Perhaps we can get neighborhood specialists to put pen to paper and sort this out. The ground rules can be debated, but I usually count anything that's at least 50% complete and actively in construction if you're shooting for 12 months out.

does ud or miller or someone not track this...also, presumably banks track this if they are in or were in the business of financing the construction phase....

bad info is a problem...im wmburg seems to lots of rental now, not so much sale coming on line

NY developers seem to have a better ability to keep these hidden in the shadows.
Florida is just so out of control with every Tom Dick and Harry developer that everyone's hand is open.

miller puts the number of completed and ready to occupy units but not yet on the market at 6000-8000. but those are units fully ready to go.

"In a report on Manhattan residential real estate this spring, Mr. Miller estimated that in addition to the 10,445 condominiums that showed up in unsold inventory, there were as many as 7,000 shadow units."

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090809/SMALLBIZ/308099970#

doing a search on SE shows that in the last year there were 9500ish condo sales for all of NYC. not all of that, of course, was new development from the sponsor.

and a current search for NYC shows slightly under 9600 condos on the market. so almost two years worth of inventory, not counting the stuff that's still being finished.

hey bjw i remember the post and thread you are referencing. that was good work. i believe it was part of bjw vs mutombo part 23...but seriously it was refreshing to see someone take the time to gather actual data rather than not... as for the suggestion that it could be done nabe by nabe most accurately i concur..especially because most of these developments are concentrated in particular areas: central harlem, west 50s(manhattan), williamsburg, downtown bklyn,(brookyln), lic(queens) to name a few.

i wonder what percent of the condos listed are new development? (quite a different creature obviously than an occppied unit)

[that figure about 9500 condos sold last year surprises me some..i thought total sales of everything were way lower than what that would imply...but..i guess i remember wrong]

moxie, thanks (and yes that was round 49 really, of my not being able to suffer fools easily). Are any of the neighborhood experts able to help out here? I could shoot for downtown Brooklyn, but would definitely defer to someone with more intimate knowledge or who actually lives there.

I suspect that an accurate count would be a bit surprising to some - I think people are more wowed by the sheer number of construction sites vs actual number of units. Manhattan and downtown Brooklyn numbers will probably surprise because much of the construction is high-rise. Williamsburg inventory gets blown out of proportion because there are so many buildings, yet except for a handful, you're looking at 5-7 stories.

jim, that's all of nyc, not just manhattan, you didn't disremember. i don't know what miller's number refers to. it's hard to keep track of, so i just did nyc search to be on the safe side. if his shadow numbers are for manhattan, then the figure is even more significant. and at one point in time he said that the shadow number was probably twice as large if you counted units being constructed. i think that's where my earlier figure came from, and it likely included current inventory, shadow inventory and pipeline inventory, somewhere in the mid/high-20,000s.

these numbers get frustrating.

manhattan condo sales in the last 365 days is 5090. surprising that the total is almost double.

Banks financing..developers trying to decide what to do....some consultant working with them....i think they follow this stuff very closely , look at new permits, etc. and can give some very good numbers..they would be looking at absorption rates, and outstanding inventory...