Fed Raises Discount Rate

For people who sold their well bought one beds in 2006 or 2007 because they needed more space it wasn't market timing to see that the math wasn't sound for buying a two bed.

Printer you're wrong about 2004 buyers. With transaction costs they're down. Plus your conclusion is predicated on your rosy view of the future. 2004 buyers were wise to sell after lehman failed. They got out alive and are now treated to low monthly rents. They can watch this unfold rather than hope it's mild from here like you.

Homes for purchase are not investments. This was one of the reasons WE HAD A BUBBLE. Peole thought of their home as an investment which led to monetizing it with HELOCS or buying more home than they needed which only increased their carrying costs. If your'e looking for a real esate investment buy an investor property.

004 buyers were wise to sell after lehman failed. They got out alive and are now treated to low monthly rents

TOO MUCH DRAMA,

I'm buying at 18.5x times a conservative rent. Interest rate will be approximately 5.25%. Even by your numbers rhino, pretty good deal.

I don't know anything about p.e ratios on homes, but if you like the see a Condo you like, plan to bein it, can afford it, and the after_tax costs of the mortgage+ maintenance + common is less than rent of and/or POST NAV based on your assumptions says buy, then buy.

Think less. Buy what you like. Why be on a board dedicated to thinking about real estate if you prefer not to think too hard about it?

18.5x is not a great ratio even in today's overvalued market.

Why be on a board dedicated to thinking about real estate if you prefer not to think too hard about it?

Because there are many arm chair quarterbacks, who for one reason or another can't invest and this is their exposure to it.

There is no thinking that backs buying here only wanting. The wanters and the thinkers. Wanters why are the thinkers so troublesome if you've already admitted it wasn't thinking but wanting that drove your decision?

I think most of the renters here choose not to own. Most of the owners like to act like all renters must rent because cool successful people buy even when it requires the avoidance of thinking. Too rich cool and handsome to think. Bah renters.

I will admit that my "wanting" to buy is was a factor in my decision, but only one and actually not the primary factor. Thinking has a lot to do with it. I've explained my thinking, you disagree which is fair enough. But to lump all buyers as wanters and the "right-minded" people like you rhino as "thinkers" is ludicrous.

And for the record, I have never met anyone (except on this board) who has ever professed that they rent because it makes more fiscal sense for them. That includes people from all walks of life, levels of education, and occupations. Rhino, you are within the 1% of people who look at RE or their home as nothing more than an investment. The 99% of people don't look at their homes this way and it biases all of your analysis of RE.

Let me try the first sentence again. I will admit that my "wanting" to buy was a factor in my decision, buy only one of many factors and it was not the primary factor.

Under current facts only wanting could drive it. It's not 100 percent investment for me. Under current risk scenario analysis is paramount.

Most owner here choose to own. Most of the renters think the owners should rent, when that is simply also not true.

Bottom line, everyone's situation is different. It's just annoying to see such strong opinions both ways. "Buy now or be forever priced out" or "Only an Idiot would Buy Now"

I think there are plenty of people in manhattan who view it the way I do. You try to align yourself with the majority to bolster your view. Isn't the majority always wrong? Oh wait that's only when you bullpoligists want to say buying now is contrarian.

Without this bubble you could more safely surrender to want without overanalysing. It seems like your analysis is more complex and creative than mine because it has to get you to a bad answer. You should throw it in the bin at least then you'd have illogical consistency.

ugghhh...I just lost all interest in continuing this discussion with you rhino. Those are the arguments of the weak-minded; those who abandon there position for ad hominem attacks, etc. No point in continuing such a discussion. Your right because you are absolutely, positively convinced that you are. Everyone who disagrees isn't thinking. Whatever.

Everyone approaches the market differently. That's what makes a market. Some are yield buyers, some are oas buyers, some have a view of the market and wish to make a bet. Being so sure your view is correct to the point where you/one abuses those that don't share this view, is just arrogant. Truth is nobody knows.

Let me make an important distinction. I am not guaranteeing my future. I know that no one knows. What I am saying is more along these lines. You have no supportable logic to go with your opinion. You can either say you don't care about the numbers, you are going to buy what you want to buy...or you can make a case on numbers. You have no numbers. If you have looked at history at all, you should know a 3-4% cap rate stinks and 19x rent is a lot. You're basically the people who argued that when the stock market pulled back from 40x earnings to 30x earnings that it was a reasonable buy, despite that it had rarely traded over 20x prior to the tech bubble. That is just not a winning argument. The numbers do not support it. Why not just say I want it, I don't care that it remains super expensive relative to rent, I don't care that probability suggests this is a bad use of my money, and leave it at that? Don't engage in a logical debate if you're not bringing any.

Again with the 'nobody knows'. Such a cop out. All we do know is it was a bubble, then rents and values fell a similar amount, leaving ratios roughly in line. Ummm, conclusion = buy? Right, only if you don't care.

Did the numbers support a major stock market rally in March? If I recall most people thought the sky was falling?

12x normalized earnings at 660 vs. a historical average supported an investment for those with a stomach. 19x price to rent, not so much...

"That is a very true statement. The illiquid nature of real estate is actually a good thing for the average investor. Just ask all of the folks on this board that were doing rent vs. buy calculations with their down payment money returning 15% while they were losing 50%"

Of course, losing 50% turned out to be a whole lot better than the losing 100% from buying when the 20% down payment met a 30% market decline. How many rent vs. buy calculations put 30% down in?

Not to mention, what idiot would put down payment money in the stock market? (i guess similar idiots to those who bought real estate at peak)

Weather can't be predicted. However there are weather predictions made under a set of facts that would flunk an exam in meterology school based on the scientific evidence behind them.

so why not 'normalise' rents when looking at your ratios, instead of using real-time rents which are coming off of a remarkable fall. I think that is what most buyers are doing now - they understand that rents are near the lowest of the decade and that buying real-estate (locking in those rents) now, isn't such a bad idea.

like looking through the cycle. of course you running from stocks in the spring, though I'm sure your revisionist history will say otherwise.

"And for the record, I have never met anyone (except on this board) who has ever professed that they rent because it makes more fiscal sense for them. That includes people from all walks of life, levels of education, and occupations."

Yes, we know... most of America was wrong. Thats why it was called a BUBBLE.

How many people did you know that shorted tech stocks?

Best mortals can do is stand down from things they can't make sense of like these values. I would normalize rents printer. How far back should i start the trend? If I go back to before finance became a monster I am sure you'll say the city is a much better place. If I say values are not compelling even on peak rents I'm sure you'll talk about interest rates. You wanted to buy. If you were secure in that you'd stop yapping. How is this board useful to those who've made their bed?

How is it useful to someone like you who knows everything about everything and by definition can never be wrong or learn anything? Face it, we are all biased and colored by our past choices (or those that the bank made for us).

I came on this board originally about a year ago to counter the prevailing doom and gloom from the likes of yourself, and to explain to people that buying at that time, depending on your circumstance and of course the price, was a rational thing to do. And while the conditions aren't as attractive as they were a yr ago (prices are higher and more importantly inventory is down), I still think it can make sense.

It still amazes me that with the drastic changes we've seen since 12 months ago you haven't changed your tune one bit that prices are doomed to fall another 30% or more. Talk about having your head in the sand.

Everyone's and expert at calling a bubble AFTER

"Weather can't be predicted. However there are weather predictions made under a set of facts that would flunk an exam in meterology school based on the scientific evidence behind them. "

Great analogy.

Any element of events not totally predictable gives a lot of REALLY, REALLY stupid logic a lot of cover. Hence the RE bubble.

Right I have my head in the sand while you're taking a victory lap on a purchase that remains to be seen as well timed or foolhardy. You are the guy who keeps taking a victory lap for his coop purchase on the basis of the stock market rally.

Not to mention, printer is lying to support his argument.

> prices are higher

Only if you ignore the numbers....

Straw man straw man - please tell me when i took a victory lap? I've admitted that I am down on my equity - i was very much aware of the risks when I bought which is why I put down so much. You'd rather live in a rental that's not as nice as the place you'd live in if you bought, which is your choice. I lost money, you are throwing away time.

Wow this has been enlightening. So what I can rent will never be as nice as what you bought. Therefore I am thowing precious years of my life away. The way to true happiness and self worth is owning a piece of a coop corporation at however unreasonable a price.

When I derive my self worth from my two two In Carnegie hill shoot me please. You're pathetic but you've revealed something. You needed an ego boost. Buying provided it. That's what's missing from my analysis.

I love it. Bulls have given up on the financial argument, but we're now playing the "well, yeah, but I live better" argument. We're one step away from "well, you're ugly".

But, at least the bulls are finally admitting their mistake.

If I were enough of a loser to imagine I'd be happy forever with two kids in a two two and needed to feel
superior to renters...and to boot knew I'd never make enough to pay off my mortgage in less than 10 yrs I could see how I might buy.

Of course months ago when I gave primary source data that contradicted rhino's rent-buy conclusions, rhino just cursed and pretended that the primary data didn't exist.

You've stated previously that the quality of place you are looking to buy is not available for rent - as a matter of fact, you've used 'theoretical rents' to derive the cap rate when looking at places because you can't actually rent it.

which means that you are living in a place that is of lower quality than YOU want. It may very well be nicer than MY place - don't know don't care. So you are making an explicit trade of living in an inferior place for YOUR FAMILY vs. potentially saving money.

Let me ask you another way - let's say it takes 20yrs for values to reach the level you like - will it have been worth it? 10yrs? 5yrs?

I've never said I'm unhappy with the quality of my place or that rentals of higher quality are not available. However your question might actually be true in the burbs. I've only said neighborhood sales have better fixtures. I've never said I need or want those fixtures or that I couldn't pay for them in another rental. I don't feel compromised where I am at. You clearly feel superior. That has value.

somewhere, you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. The issue isn't whether my living situation is better than someone elses - I probably lose that argument to tens of thousands of people in this city, if not more. It is whether your current situation relative to your potential situation is better or worse.

That's what many people come on this board for - to see whether they should rent/buy or sell. And I'm saying that in Rhino's situation he is trading time (in an inferior place relative to what HE can buy), vs. the money he believes he is saving. Its not a pissing match at all - if he is who he says he is, with his yrs upon yrs of 7 figure earnings and seemingly infallible record of investing, then he could buy my place just to store his books.

Who I say I am? I'm just a guy who has had a few good years and has 1.5mm in the bank. To address your question I am willing to "suffer" my rental for another couple of years for the potential of buying something much nicer, lower with a big downpayment and a long horizon. Yes my big saving is that I think a 1.6mm place isn't going up and may go down a lot and we have only the one kid.

enjoy your weekend.

printer, i don't disagree with everything you've written. but quality of life is so much more complicated than whether you own or rent. for some the freedom and lack of attachment is fun (some people LOVE to move, i'm actually one of them, although i'm staying put probably for a good long time this time), for some not worrying about higher monthly costs is invaluable (and it HAS been a fair bit more expensive, to buy than to rent). i think it's kind of sad that some people care SO much about owning that they "settle" in order to find a way to purchase, or even worse, stretch. i'd much rather rent something i don't love than buy something i don't love, and frankly, except at fairly high price points, there's a whole lot of not to love out there in the sales market.

neither is superior. both have their merits. but i think the rental stock is immeasurably improved now. renters who can negotiate leases with decent terms can do very well, both in terms of price and in terms of quality.

may I?

Printer, it's not like I said dont' have sex, I just said given where that girl's been and what everyone is saying, just put on a condom. Now I'm not even talking about waiting till ALL the tests coming back, I'm just talking about waiting till the test of diseases that'll kill you, like aids come back.

Now you can say.. "I must have HER now!" When she is perfectly willing to use a condom... but that's your choice.

if i may again. I heard about a friend's mom who passed away a year ago from lung cancer. Life time smoker... always said, I'm an adult, I've enjoyed every puff. Strong as nails.... a couple months into treatment while in hospital admitted to being regretful. Now this lady swore up and down to hundreds of ppl, that she's got personal freedom, knew the score, and made a choice.... but in the end she only told 3 ppl that she regretted smoking.

Just know, ppl LOVE to brag about the $500K in gain, but few speak about their losses.... they sometimes... "I did it to paint it purple" rationalize their loss... or better yet stop looking at their aspirational Classic 7.....

"Of course months ago when I gave primary source data that contradicted rhino's rent-buy conclusions, rhino just cursed and pretended that the primary data didn't exist."

LIC, you're bragging about your calculations, when they led you to the WRONG decision?

rhino...im well aware of your view of re..but where do you invest your assets; i ask because since you have such a bleak fundamentals based view of nyc re (which overrides what some others glean from current market behaivior) i wonder if you also have a similarly bleak fundamentals based view of other investment assets, such as domestic stocks, europe, vea, dollar....there seems to be good reasons to be cautious on just about all fronts

> which means that you are living in a place that is of lower quality than YOU want.

I don't get how printer is COMPLETELY missing the point.

If renting is cheaper than buying, which it has proven to be, then you can EITHER rent the same or lesser place for LESS than if you were buying it, or get MORE for the same dollar.

You using "my place is better" is BACKWARD logic. You could have had more for the same $$$!

i meant to say eem (not vea)

aboutready, you "LOVE to move"? Either you're masochistic, or I'm missing something? I know there are good movers out there, but you can't tell me you actually enjoy paying strangers to relocate your stuff (not to mention the risks of damage/loss to your valuables) and having to go through an apartment search every year or so? I can buy that it's not a major pain to you, but actual enjoyment? To the point of love?

and 67...you have a bleak view of nyc re, based on fundamentals...how the hell do you feel about the us dollar, us economy, europe, etc. because the same champagne punch that contributed to the housing problems also contributed to a lot of other bad situations....

"If renting is cheaper than buying, which it has proven to be"

And what if you've found examples that are otherwise? They are out there. Not the norm of course, but out there.

examples.. bjw.

1995 100% better to own
2005 20% better to own
2007 0% better to own
2010 0% better to own, cause rents have not stopped bleeding.... how can I tell 0% own when the tape measure by which I can determine it is falling to the bottom of the ocean?

bjw, actually, yes i do. i love new neighborhoods, i love to decorate new spaces, and i am an amazing packer. it's more difficult now with the kid, which is one of the many reasons we are more rooted, but even so she's lived in three different locations, and she's in middle school. in my 26 years since college i've lived in 16 different apartments (although i confess that four of them were the first year and a half out of college, four were my two years in tokyo). the last 17 years i've been the model of stability, with residencies that lasted 3 years, 5 years, 3 years, and now 6 years (my longest, in PCV, what delicious irony). of course the durations did last longer once I started purchasing, which was the first 3 year stint.

when i applied to work at DOJ it was a nightmare. you need to list addresses for a certain number of years.

my husband HATES to move.

Jimmy, Iv'e been all cash for a 1+. Tis a fool who thinks about gain when there is de-leveraging all around. FWIW, I think the 50% run up in the stk mkt is like 0% return on a risk adjusted basis.

You understand, that as the fed withdraws liquidity the liquidity that is left becomes more valuable? right? Like the banks gotta pay some interest on this stuff...

w67th, what are you talking about? If you're claiming that there isn't a single apartment out there that rents or could rent for more than its monthly costs of ownership, you're in stevejhx territory (where is that guy anyway?).

by the same logic of the ultra bears re nyc re.....what will happen to us interest rates given recent monetary and fiscal policy? what will happen to the us dollar?....if you all are so sure about nyc re, what about other looming catastrophes?..equally worried?....

jim, it's all just bad. mobility. think mobility.

bjw, you'd be surprised how many people like to move. and until the move from the first 3 year apartment (company paid) we had always moved ourselves, with help from friends. also, i had movers in japan, but that was also a company paid expense.

> FWIW, I think the 50% run up in the stk mkt is like 0% return on a risk adjusted basis.

I look at it the other way, it was less risky than it was at 12k with Lehman coming down the pike... was it going to go from 6k to 3k?

"if you all are so sure about nyc re, what about other looming catastrophes?..equally worried?...."

other potential catastrophes sure, although other areas look like much more solid bets than Manhattan RE.

Its actually less about another "crash", I think its more just the market sitting there for years... which is pretty standard for RE crashes.

bjw... statistically 0. is it a normal curve? will the universe implode upon itself in some distant future time rendering this debate to 0?

jimmy, dollar will strengthen as fed pays more interest on it and liquidity is sopped up. This plus the fact Greece has a 10% of population working for gov't, "potential" break-up of EU, and I became a naturalized US citizen 10 yrs ago... means I am happy to sit cash until Volcker puts in his 10% IR monetary policy.

Imagine if you bought a condo in the past yr thinking 5% yield, and here comes the fed offering you 10% yield, rents are in shitter and your unit is down 40% bc there is NO cash buyers? That in a nutshell is why I am on the sideline. One thing to understand the mkt another to have the balls to see it play out, eh?

and who thinks curling is NOT an olympic sport?

im pretty heavy in cash...it just sucks..no good options...it's hard to believe the govt can do all this shit it has down with no zero consequences....

aboutready, fair enough - I salute your patience, calm, and nomad-ness.

w67th, statistically 0? Not sure what you mean? Do you even care if you've found that proverbial needle in the haystack? I say no.

jimmy... every time i get antsy.. I just picture Geitner trying to sell his Larchmont house, an effective way to do this is to pay you 0 on your cash... and yes it got a lot of lemmings moving. Now I ask you, youv'e played a good game of chkn... didn't blink with home tax credits, 0% mortgages, 3% down mortgages, banker's bonus coming, and stuff every single underwater developer and homeowner under the "performing" loan line item... fed is just starting to ACT on raising interest rates (and will continue to do so).....now what's another year to see where nyc re mkt goes? heh?

I'd take up golf, scuba diving, bumper cars, model sailboats etc etc etc... in 1 yr that hobby will save you $10Ks in leverages loss. or you can just blog on SE.... : )

the probability/chance you are better off buying in the current bid price and where rents are is 0. Are there ppl that are buying at $500psf and gonna be fine, yeah Sam Zell... for his 3000 unit buy, there has to be 3000 unit individual buys that are not better off.... bringing it back to ZERO.

w67th, if your argument is that the probability of getting a good deal on a random apartment is next to nil, then yeah, you're definitely right. But that's not what I'm saying.

As the saying goes "Never argue with a fool, people might not know the difference" or even better "Never argue with a fool, he will only drag you down to his level and beat you with experience." Hope everyone has a great weekend.

so tell me bjw.... thousands of ppl... just like you. Can add and subtract, may even be able to use the TVM function, maybe even went to a fine graduate institution.... so they ARE NOT getting a "deal" but you ARE?, as compared to rent.....

The arguments all the lemmings are using to BUY is the same as all the other lemmings... it's like a lemming bidding war out there. I am hoping that I am seeing the bigger picture than the lemmings... but who know maybe I am IN MY own pool of "smarter" than that smaller pool of lemmings.... hahahhahaahaaaaaaaa.....

but i doubt it....

http://mortgage-x.com/trends.htm

historical interest rates...just wondering how fast rates will rise if they do start rising.....

Market closed up 9 points. Increase in the discount rate=yawn.

gator.. you know except for x-mas and other assorted holidays, we never take a day off? I am convinced if i stop posting the world would end, ala LOST. That show btw is complete azz now.

jim, plz... if i pull a rubber band further away from its natural state, what will happen if i let go?

w67, you haven't liked the last season of Lost so far? I don't whether I still love it or just so committed to seeing it through till the end for the payoff (please do not draw any analogies to my apartment purchase :-) ). I do like the captioned episodes alot.

that chart actually shows that rates move pretty fast when they move..,,,,

Good find Jim.

I don't have all the answers for your investment portfolio. I didnt load up on stock under 800 on the S&P. I admit that the normalized multiple below 800 called for some reasonable allocation. I don't have all the answers on real estate. I almost bought near the peak.

Flip side is, I did sell all my stock when Lehman went bankrupt and the S&P was at 1200. I did make more on my investments in 2009 then I lost in 2008. And now that rents are falling, and not rising, I do actually find it a much easier decision here NOT to buy than it was closer to the peak. I am a believer in momentum.

And the funny thing Riversider is you claim bubbles are obvious after the fact, but here you are advocating buying in the early stages of the post bubble unwind. Its obvious there was a bubble, but apparently in the aftermath there is a lot of debate as to how much correction makes things relatively safe.

I think its funny how much I am hurting my family by renting. A payment is a payment and like aboutready said, if you decide your budget is $X, you can get more for $X renting than buying. So are we now making the argument, Printer, that I don't spend enough on housing based on what I have in the bank. That's absurd. Its as absurd as saying your kids are happier because your home fixtures are nicer. You are a tool.

Ultimately, the bargain here is having little to lose on the upside of owning by waiting a couple of year...something to gain on a monthly basis by renting...with some reasonable chance of a much better bargain on a long term home to own in say, the next two years. Its a stacked bet in my favor. ALso the longer I wait, the more I can afford....and potentially buy a lifetime place, here or elsewhere...So as I wait, I accumulate money, working toward a lifetime place that could mitigate my concerns... Its a win all around. And sorry, all you people buying now...you just want to...and you lack the discipline to do the obviously more reasonable thing. You are what the bubble was made of. And I hope it hurts...not because I don't like you...but because I love a deal.

Actually, I'm not advocating buying. I just don't buy that those advocating Rent are correct under all circumstances. The market's come down 20%, it's not likely to down very much(in my opinion). I saw first hand in the early 90's the illusory benefit of renting only to see rents go up. My point is one can intelligently justify buying and if the horizon is more than a few years, it can make sense. Additionally, owning has many benefits that don't show in a R.O.B. analysis.

Rhino, if you've allocated the money you've saved by renting into an "account" and it's actually growing to the point that you can buy that hypothetical place for less, then great for you, but given enough time, I suspect this will not be the case.

Well, I kind of believe in momentum for the stock market(s), and do not believe in the "easy portfolio" buy and hold mantra of so many books which to me is a suicide pact of sorts.

On the issue of momentum,isn't that partially a psychology related issue -- winners chase winners. On that note, it doesn't seem to me that the bubble mentality in nyc has fully popped, which is why you have some bidding wars, some well-priced buildings selling fairly fast, and certainly no buyer or seller panics. It may be like people buying on market dips in the stock market when they don't see the big shift that has ocurred, but in the short run it seems to be supporting the market. (not to mention the low rates)

re rates...id like to see a rate chart of the mortgage rates adjusted for real rates.....

"The market's come down 20%, it's not likely to down very much(in my opinion)."

Disagree.

"My point is one can intelligently justify buying and if the horizon is more than a few years, it can make sense. Additionally, owning has many benefits that don't show in a R.O.B. analysis."

Disagree.

"Rhino, if you've allocated the money you've saved by renting into an "account" and it's actually growing to the point that you can buy that hypothetical place for less, then great for you, but given enough time, I suspect this will not be the case."

No, it will be by the market falling that I anticipate buying a place for less.

The difference between the bulls and bears on this site is that the bulls have no basis for their modest downside worst cases.

"It may be like people buying on market dips in the stock market when they don't see the big shift that has ocurred, but in the short run it seems to be supporting the market. (not to mention the low rates)"

There is something to be said for the market holding because its holding. Personally, I dont think it will last.

"The market's come down 20%, it's not likely to down very much(in my opinion)."

Disagree.

"My point is one can intelligently justify buying and if the horizon is more than a few years, it can make sense. Additionally, owning has many benefits that don't show in a R.O.B. analysis."

Disagree.

"Rhino, if you've allocated the money you've saved by renting into an "account" and it's actually growing to the point that you can buy that hypothetical place for less, then great for you, but given enough time, I suspect this will not be the case."

No, it will be by the market falling that I anticipate buying a place for less.

The difference between the bulls and bears on this site is that the bulls have no basis for their modest downside worst cases.

you have a right to your "opinion"
we shall see

Maybe you can tell me the basis for your opinion that the market will not come down very much.

rs, the master of cognitive dissonance. MY investment choice will do fine although I continually post about how awful the economy and the administration are. dream on.

"The difference between the bulls and bears on this site is that the bulls have no basis for their modest downside worst cases."

rhino, bull, buyer or whatever you choose to call it, several including myself have explained our basis for a modest downside scenario. Its been done many times, but you have continually dismissed those explanations out of hand. We have no basis only because you say we have no basis.

Investment choice forced by circumstance is not choice.

Rhino is betting on increased volatility to the downside. Seems more religion than anything else. What's catalyst he/she sees on the horizion for this supposed huge movement? I don't know. Shouldn't it have occurred already?

Why if the last downturn played out over three years is it up to me to disprove such an assertion as 'shouldnt it have happened already'?

I still haven't heard why there is modest downside. I haven't heard a valuation basis. I haven't heard a bull case for rents. I haven't heard a scenario for all these condos to see at current prices. Its a joke. Gator you claim to have laid any of this out...where? when?

I am betting on a slower move down in each of the next two years. That is a decrease in volatility. Before you swallow the dictionary of market terms, please read it.

So If I understand your argument. The market will soon realize that Real Estate is currently over-valued(despite the past drop) and that the consensus is wrong, and you don't believe there needs to be catalyst for further decline. Do I have this correct?

am betting on a slower move down in each of the next two years. That is a decrease in volatility. Before you swallow the dictionary of market terms, please read it.
hmm, my gut feel was for single digit decline at worst leveling off and gradual increase. Not so different.

while we're arguing about the dictionary, i would submit that "volatility", or talking about "vol" doesn't make sense for an illiquid, non-commodity, sticky product like nyc re; i especially think talking about "vol" in the options market sense makes little sense (tell me how someone would hedge their nyc re "vol" position....it just doesn't seem to work)...

I would agree with that.

rs, so funny. "shouldn't it have occurred already?" you who continually and incessantly point out the government's role in propping up prices?

never used this before, but flmao.

Government is propping up prices.

of course. including the price of your property. but continue to insist that prices in manhattan new development condos don't have that far to fall. or that the market won't fall.

what is it, rs? gov't propping up prices so the sales prices should be lower, or everything is OK?

Yes, I'm well aware that you are hoping prices fall. It's your once consolation prize to living in subsidized housing with broken elevators.

I can't respond to the rest because you're not being very coherent.

Would aboutready ever buy? I think it is unlikely. She'd have to do her own maintenance and replace her own toilet seats.

Some people just are happy when they have someone else to blame.

i think the argument would be that the govt has a prop-up, keep things from unraveling much further, muddle-through till the economy starts recovering, then gradually remove support as it appears that a recovering economy becomes the prop so to speak....in nyc, one could argue that no realistic growth scenario will bring back lost jobs, fill all these buildings (at anything near current prices)....

My catalyst is too much supply with trailing demand. Condo market is not seperate. It's a substitute. Further weak hiring over the last two years will create a hole in demand over the next two years for one beds. Weak one bed demand hurts two bed upgraders. Also borderline families who might have made a go of it here will move out in larger numbers. All this hasn't happened fully yet because developers are stubborn and rates are being held down by the fed. As the fed withdraws so go rates. Unless finance recovers to peak, there will not be enough buyers to hold the market here at values never seen prior to the collapse of the cost of money that began in 2001.

Yeah but I think worst we see is another 5 or 10 percent down...yeah that's a best case.

hfs, you're stupid. i've owned four properties. one i still own. keep up.