Are Apartment Prices Coming Up A Little?

Here's an article I posted on another thread the other day which would suggest that in some neighborhoods prices have indeed risen (at least YOY Q4 2008 to Q4 2009).

http://nymag.com/realestate/features/63383/

But keep in mind that Lehman and the most extreme market drops happened in Q4 2008. So there were a lot of contracts broken or renegotiated during that period -- and very few new deals closing, as people waited to figure out if the world was going to end. So this doesn't prove that prices have risen since last summer, when fears of the apocalypse had abated somewhat. But it's interesting nonetheless.

If there is some truth to this it confirms what I've heard about the last big slump in the late 80s and early 90s -- while there were big increases on average across the board, prime neighborhoods didn't lose much value.

Thanks Miette. Very good article.

You bet, lobster.

And obviously, in the last paragraph of my original post, I meant "decreases."

Miette - what you've "heard" about the last slump simply isn't true. I've lived through it. Prime neighborhoods took a hit. Not as bad a hit as marginal neighborhoods whose prices shot up much more during the boom, but they did take a hit. Sorry to bubble-burst :(

You're not bursting my bubble -- of course prime neighborhoods took a hit. But the info I recall seeing indicated that certain neighborhoods (and apartment types) didn't experience anything near the 25-30% average hit that occurred during the last slump.

Here's one article I just pulled up that has some data cites (but is not systematic or thorough in its presentation -- if anyone knows of something better please post) -- it indicates, for example, that the Village fell 10% in the early 1990s while Chelsea and Hell's Kitchen fell 43%. http://nymag.com/nymetro/realestate/features/realestate2005/12018/ (Which isn't to say that Chelsea and Hell's Kitchen haven't changed remarkably since the early 1990s -- back then they were much "fringier".)

Anyway, my point is a simple one: just because Manhattan real estate prices might decline X% from peak to trough doesn't mean that the UWS, say, will decline by the same percentage. (Though, IMO, the super-luxury properties in prime neighborhoods might decline by an even larger percentage than average properties in average neighborhoods -- I'm referring to medians here.)

Miette.. yes yes.. your anus does not smell... itz everyone else's that stinks. Now go back to sleep and stop clogging up SE w/ your manure.

To view this "bubble" like anything else in the last 200 yrs in nyc, is like accepting your future son in law's "dog" walking as a legitimate career.

w67th, we all know how you feel about the real estate market. But your juvenile insults don't contribute much. Have anything substantive to post? If not then leave me alone.

Miette.... you take an article from 1990's when NINJAs were 0, when 20% down was standard, the global recession was 18 months with US and Japan being hardest hit, and you take 2007 with a synchronized collapse of the financial world, plus immense credit bubble and 30% of homeowners in the US underwater and say, "my nabe is fine?" Seriously, keep drinking that lemming juice. And when a dog walker and waitress buys into your UWS co-op NOT B/C they are smarter of make more money, but bc they waited out the greatest bubble in NYC history.. let's see how ya likez them applez. Me I prefer mangos.

I guess I'm the only one who thinks that prices have risen a little since last summer/early fall. I'm glad to be in the minority view.

I dont have data but the Village suffered plenty in the early 90's from both the economic slump and the sad fact that many Village residents were dying of AIDS. Many Village values fell far more than 10%.

w67 why all the dog walker hatred all of a sudden?

> I guess I'm the only one who thinks that prices have risen a little since last summer/early fall.
> I'm glad to be in the minority view

I'm glad to be one of those who isn't going by guesses (or broker BS), but data. The Q4 numbers, which were supposed to be higher because of the distance from bad season, were flat or DOWN (depending on which brokerage report). Fundamentals in NYC (unemployment, budget woes, etc.) have actually gotten worse since then.... and Obama's attack on the banks happened after.

So you keep guessing.... I'll take the numbers.

> Anyway, my point is a simple one: just because Manhattan real estate prices might decline X% from
> peak to trough doesn't mean that the UWS, say, will decline by the same percentage

True... it could decline substantially more.

Any links to view? I'd be very interested in seeing this data. I've been following quite a number of apartments for the past 8-10 months and the sale prices on some of them have been higher than I thought. What data did you see? Thanks for the help.

w67th -- pointing out that some neighborhoods may decline more than others is drinking lemming juice? Tell you what. I'll bet you 2 BR condo that, in five years, we'll look back and see that some neighborhoods declined more than others in the great housing slump of 2008-20[??]. Deal? Of course you won't make that deal; that proposition is totally obvious, which is why I'm not sure why you're flaming me for it.

Will the UWS be among the nabes that decline less than average? I think so, just because the UWS seems to be the "ultimate neighborhood" for a lot of people, and demand will probably remain stronger there than in places that top fewer people's lists. That said, I don't live on the UWS. I don't even like the UWS, LOL.

I've been looking in the UES and UWS. IMO, these areas often attract somewhat older and more financially established buyers (or buyers with some family money) who may be a little more insulated from the current financial crisis. I can think of more than a few units that went for slightly higher prices than similar sales six months earlier in the same building. But like many neighborhoods, there is a huge range of apartments by price and type and perhaps overall prices in these areas are flat.

lobster -- here's Miller Samuel's Q4 market report. For coops: Average price down 3.1% from Q3, median price same, average price per square foot up 6.4%. For condos: Average price up 3.3% from Q3, median down 2%, average price per square foot up 7.8%. Aggregate: Average price down 2.1%, median down 4.7%, average price per square foot up 5.5%.

http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO4Q09.pdf

I don't think I've seen a neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakout yet, though.

Miette, thanks so much for your assistance. I suspect that my question is probably limited to my own apartment search and the buildings that I've been viewing and following.
BTW, I studied french for 7 years but couldn't recall what your name was in english translation so I looked it up. My french is definitely rusty. Thanks once again- you've been great.

lobster- So hard to say b/c it will be a few months before the prices you are seeing today make it to a report. When any agent on the ground gives a positive view, they get yelled out of here by certain bears.

UWSer, excellent points.

You bet, lobster. Miette, besides being a table scrap, is also the name of the adorable little leader of the orphan gang in City of the Lost Children. :-)

Here's the SE Q4 report, which I just realized has the neighborhood numbers: http://docs.streeteasy.com/market_reports/2009Q4_Report.pdf

It definitely shows how, particularly if you've been looking mostly at coops, you'd be getting the impression that prices are rising. Median price for coop resales on the UES increased 19% from Q3 to Q4. (The increase was 3.6% overall, counting condos and new developments.) And on the UWS the median price of coop resales increased 6.5% (though decreased 2.4% overall).

Bear in mind that some or most of this increase in median prices for coop resales is probably attributable to the fact that bigger places started moving again. I wish they gave PSF numbers.