Interesting chart posted by Jonathan Miller on Curbed: http://curbed.com/archives/2010/02/19/examining_manhattans_snakelike_listing_discounts.php#more I have been suspicious of the listing discount metric because, as reported, it is off the last list and I assume can be manipulated by brokers once a meeting of the minds appears close. The chart shows the spread between the original and last list... [more]
Interesting chart posted by Jonathan Miller on Curbed:
http://curbed.com/archives/2010/02/19/examining_manhattans_snakelike_listing_discounts.php#more
I have been suspicious of the listing discount metric because, as reported, it is off the last list and I assume can be manipulated by brokers once a meeting of the minds appears close. The chart shows the spread between the original and last list and how it has narrowed recently.
It would be interesting if this info was compared with total days on the market. Brokers on this board have expressed that trading activity has picked up significantly. It may be that sellers are jumping at bids sooner, being realistic or panicked depending on your perspective. I do wonder if this narrowed listing discount spread was driven by sell-side concern that the relatively stable real estate market we have seen recently would soon have the bottom drop out.
I add the caveat Noah has expressed at UrbanDigs to be wary of relying on the lagging indication of sales data, in that these discount spreads may be a reflection of the Fall-09 market and not what is transacting today.
http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/02/understanding_the_lag_w_quarte.html#comments
Thoughts?
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Response by NWT
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 6643
Member since: Sep 2008
Once in a while I pull the most-recent 200 Manhattan co-op closings off SE and calculate the listing discounts for those where SE has matched a closing to a listing.
Last week, the range was all over the place, as usual, but the median was just shy of -5%.
Several months ago the median was almost -7%.
Given that "last week" actually means "sometime several months ago when contracts were written", it's interesting to see sellers and buyers reaching more of a meeting of the minds on pricing.
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Response by angler7
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 193
Member since: Oct 2007
That is a neat study NWT. I think I will add a periodic dive into discounting as part of my pulse-taking. What JM's chart suggests is that I be more sensitive to the discount spread, original list v. last list. The headline discount for me remains the original list to final sales price as an indication of how realistic sellers/brokers are being. The closer that is to final sales price hints at a normalizing market.
Once in a while I pull the most-recent 200 Manhattan co-op closings off SE and calculate the listing discounts for those where SE has matched a closing to a listing.
Last week, the range was all over the place, as usual, but the median was just shy of -5%.
Several months ago the median was almost -7%.
Given that "last week" actually means "sometime several months ago when contracts were written", it's interesting to see sellers and buyers reaching more of a meeting of the minds on pricing.
That is a neat study NWT. I think I will add a periodic dive into discounting as part of my pulse-taking. What JM's chart suggests is that I be more sensitive to the discount spread, original list v. last list. The headline discount for me remains the original list to final sales price as an indication of how realistic sellers/brokers are being. The closer that is to final sales price hints at a normalizing market.