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Another crisis explanation.

Started by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
Discussion about
A good read..
Response by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/crisisqa0210.pdf

The important points are:
• As traditional banking became unprofitable in the 1980s, due to competition from, most
importantly, money market mutual funds and junk bonds, securitization developed. Regulation
Q that limited the interest rate on bank deposits was lifted, as well. Bank funding became much
more expensive. Banks could no longer afford to hold passive cash flows on their balance
sheets. Securitization is an efficient, cheaper, way to fund the traditional banking system.
Securitization became sizable.
• The amount of money under management by institutional investors has grown enormously.
These investors and non‐financial firms have a need for a short‐term, safe, interest‐earning,
transaction account like demand deposits: repo. Repo also grew enormously, and came to use
securitization as an important source of collateral.
• Repo is money. It was counted in M3 by the Federal Reserve System, until M3 was discontinued
in 2006. But, like other privately‐created bank money, it is vulnerable to a shock, which may
cause depositors to rationally withdraw en masse, an event which the banking system – in this
case the shadow banking system—cannot withstand alone. Forced by the withdrawals to sell
assets, bond prices plummeted and firms failed or were bailed out with government money.
• In a bank panic, banks are forced to sell assets, which causes prices to go down, reflecting the
large amounts being dumped on the market. Fire sales cause losses. The fundamentals of
subprime were not bad enough by themselves to have created trillions in losses globally. The
mechanism of the panic triggers the fire sales. As a matter of policy, such firm failures should
not be caused by fire sales.
• The crisis was not a one‐time, unique, event. The problem is structural. The explanation for the
crisis lies in the structure of private transaction securities that are created by banks. This
structure, while very important for the economy, is subject to periodic panics if there are shocks
that cause concerns about counterparty default. There have been banking panics throughout
U.S. history, with private bank notes, with demand deposits, and now with repo. The economy
needs banks and banking. But bank liabilities have a vulnerability.

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