Whitney Calls Housing Double Dip

Yawn... is anyone still listening to her? She said banks will roll over again a few months ago because fed is stopping their asset purchase. Spreads are actually tighter now and most bank stocks are trading 20% higher. Had you traded on her call, you would have lost your shirt.

a "light" double dip? yawn indeed.

Meredith is about as influential today as Elainze Gazarelli and Abby Cohen

shouldn't you be out structuring a total return swap or something?

A "light double dip" is when I dunk my chip into the guac,on both sides.

when you're wrong for a long time you stick your butt out on a limb on one last stupid call...she'll be begging for a job in 9-12 months as she shuts down her firm. that's my prediction.

http://investingcaffeine.com/2009/11/23/meredith-whitney’s-cloudy-crystal-ball/

a less than 50% batting average and the street falls in love with her one call on citi...

she got her recent goldman and jp morgan wrong - she'll get the housing market wrong as well. the fed just won't stop printing money...

short meredith whitney's soon to be shut down firm...

just more evidence against active equity management

In my mind it's not about great calls, its about great returns and hard research. David Einhorn and Michael Burry strike me as having done both better. Meredith was an analyst, I don't recall her managing any funds.

agree. my hyperbole aside, i still maintain that the fed and the us government want the banks to make huge sums of money now. they continue to keep the yield curve steep and allow banks to make excessive profits on their most fundamental business -- deposits and loans. furthermore, banks have access to such cheap funds that their trading profits are obscene. and lastly wall st has laid off tens of thousands of employees so their variable costs are historically low.

whitney focuses myopically on credit provisions and the probability of increasing credit provisions. she also does not want to factor in a gradual and possible recovery for the US consumer -- see recent reports.

and finally housing. i focus on the most simple trend that may soon disappear -- low prices in major markets, cheap financing if you can get it and now more eager cash buyers/investors. i definitely don't see a robust recovery in housing (>10%) but i sure as heck don't see a double dip!!!

she'll be eating crow on a steady basis...

> In my mind it's not about great calls, its about great returns and hard research. David Einhorn

Again, the danger of picking the guy who happened to be pointing down at the beginning of a market tank. Even lousy short-sellers looked like geniuses. Need to look at a longer track record...

It is true, the gov't does want the banks to make money. they are still capital constrained(or would be if their books reflected reality). I do think the gov't miscalculated and never considered banks and wlll street would apy themselves so much while this was going on.

somewhereelse, maybe but he really researched it. similar to the cpa/ guy who spotted enron before everyone else did.

i give meredith enormous credit for spotting citi. she deserves a gold star. however her ego is now bigger than her brain.

That call was in November of 2007. She was just the first to break ranks. The signs were there well before that. Citibank was and is a disaster and everyone knew and still does know it.

Meredith is hot. That's why people listen to her. If she was a middle aged fat guy people woudl tell her to sit down and shut up.

Meredith is the babe!

rs: so exciting for you...other people responding.

you guys know she wasn't the first to break ranks right? and that she's not hot right? please tell me you know the latter at least.

i had lunch at the table next to her in midtown a few weeks back. she is attractive and a big girl...definitely not HOT.

columbiacounty is still on default ignore along with me? And he's still chasing riversider.

What a shriveled angry grey man.

Much of this discussion should probably be moved to "hotornot.com."

For those of you interested in housing, I'm wondering why anyone would think Whitney's comments are anything other than a brilliant restatement of the obvious?

Given that mortgage rates are going to start going up (although probably not that much in the near term), the housing tax credit will soon end, unemployment is not expected to drop significantly this year, and the banks can only play pretend and extend for so long with a huge backlog of delinquent mortgages (that the gvt has not been forcing them to write down), where is the upside in the housing market???

Granted, most people no longer think that we're facing a depression as we were a year ago, the number of housing units sold in NY is surpassing the exceptionally anemic numbers from a year ago, rents and prices have stabilized - but given the withdrawal of gvt supports over the next few months, I'm left wondering what's going to provide the wind beneath the wings of the housing market? I see nothing but downdrafts ahead and think Ms. Whitney is simply stating the obvious.

Did anyone else happen to notice that Robert Shiller (of the Case-Shiller Index) of late is beating the drum for a nation of renters rather than owners??? He gets to see advance numbers on housing prices, perhaps he's read the writing on the wall too!?

Housing Starts are not what we should focus on as an economic indicator for no other reason than we know we have too much supply. I would focus on rail traffic and distillate use. Considering how much over-investment we've seen in housing in the years leading up to 2007, it's not rational to expect normal period numbers for a while.

Personally, I think the Fed and Treasury are making the mistake of attempting to spur the economy with the normal tools, when its clear the normal tools are not working. It feels much like a car stuck in the snow with the driver stepping on the gas pedal in a feudal attempt to get the car out, but instead of attempting a different solution, just floors the pedal with the result being spinning tires and the car more stuck than ever.

except rs that there have been almost no periods of economic growth that didn't have expansions in residential development.

irregardless of the other indicators. btw rail is still on the fence, so to speak. but don't let reality hinder your commentary.

"i had lunch at the table next to her in midtown a few weeks back. she is attractive and a big girl...definitely not HOT."

I've only seen her in pictures. I suspect some of them have been airbrushed and edited. But I will still take her over most other Wall St. women like Karen Weaver at DB.

"somewhereelse, maybe but he really researched it. similar to the cpa/ guy who spotted enron before everyone else did."

I'm sure the guys who made short calls before big runups also fully researched it, too.

If the economy hadn't busted, all of the "truth" wouldn't have made him right.

Luck plays a huge part, and juding performace in only a couple years makes no sense.