http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/radar-logic-expects-home-prices,1220104.shtml NEW YORK, NY -- 03/24/10 -- January 2010 will appear in retrospect to have been a turning point from rapid declines in housing prices to stability or even growth, according to the January 2010 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report released today by Radar Logic Incorporated. After three months of stability, the 25-MSA... [more]
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/radar-logic-expects-home-prices,1220104.shtml
NEW YORK, NY -- 03/24/10 -- January 2010 will appear in retrospect to have been a turning point from rapid declines in housing prices to stability or even growth, according to the January 2010 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report released today by Radar Logic Incorporated.
After three months of stability, the 25-MSA RPX Composite price dropped 4.2% over the month ending January 20, 2010. However, Radar Logic argues that late January has historically marked the turning point from declines or slow growth in the 25-metropolitan-area RPX Composite price during the fall and winter to rapid increases during the spring and early summer.
Based on historical precedents, Radar Logic believes late January 2010 will prove to be a turning point as well. Decline in the RPX Composite price during late December 2009 and early January 2010 should give way to stability or growth in spring and summer 2010.
Radar Logic expects improvements in jobs and housing credit to strengthen housing markets in coming months. The firm cites recent predictions by bank analysts that the U.S. may add as many as 300,000 jobs in March, thanks to improvements in the weather, government hiring of temporary workers for the census, and a growing economy. Radar Logic also points to forecasts by the Mortgage Bankers Association that show mortgage originations for purchase increasing from $139 billion in the first quarter of 2010 to $199 billion in the second quarter and $218 billion in the third quarter.
Improvements in home affordability will also strengthen housing markets in the near term. "We have reached attractive price levels and buyers feel housing is affordable again," said Michael Feder, President and CEO of Radar Logic. "Unless we see a flood of discounted inventory, which we do not expect, and the financing for home purchase evaporates, which we do not expect, stabilization and recovery could well emerge in the next several months," Feder added.
The complete January 2010 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report is available on Radar Logic's website: http://www.radarlogic.com/rlresearch/.
Other key observations in the January 2010 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report include:
* The price volatility in January 2010 can be attributed, in large part, to the seasonal pattern in non-distressed-home sales, in conjunction with elevated levels of distressed-home sales that are relatively insensitive to seasonal market
forces.
* In January, the 25-MSA RPX transaction count posted impressive year-over-year growth in both absolute and percentage terms. In absolute terms, the transaction count for the 28 days ending January 20, 2010, was roughly 14,000 greater than it was a year prior, which compares favorably to gains over the same period during the height of the housing bubble. In percentage terms, the transaction count increased 41.9% year over year, the largest year-over-year increase in the 25-MSA transaction count since the beginning of Radar Logic data in January 2000.
* On a month-over-month basis, transaction counts declined by 30.3%, or just over 20,000 sales, as of January 20, 2010. This decline was larger than average for this time of year on a percentage basis, but significantly less than average on an absolute basis.
Report Methodology
The RPX Monthly Housing Market Report is produced by Radar Logic Incorporated, a New York-based real estate data and analytics company. These reports provide insight and detailed analysis of Radar Logic's 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and the Manhattan Condo market. This study is based on the premise that each of the MSAs, while having economic influences in common like credit and mortgage rates, is influenced primarily by local conditions.
Data in the RPX Monthly Housing Market Report reflect the 28-day aggregated value of Radar Logic Daily™ Prices. The price per square foot metric used is a powerful tool for analyzing housing markets because it significantly reduces the influence of property sizes on overall housing price trends, which can skew results. The Daily Prices for each MSA are not adjusted for seasonal variations. In some cases, Daily Prices may vary based on reporting characteristics within individual MSAs.
The February 2010 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report will be released on April 22, 2010, at 12:01 AM EDT.
About Radar Logic
Read more: http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/radar-logic-expects-home-prices,1220104.shtml#ixzz0j8saS5SY[less]
The prime New York market, where prices fell 12.5% in 2009, is gaining strength , but the recovery is tentative, says Leading New York property commentator Jonathan Miller
The frozen market in Manhattan in the first half of 2009 gave way to a much stronger second half of the year. By the summer, the market began to see a recovery in sales activity following an improvement in economic confidence prompted by a revival in the stock market.
While the market has undoubtedly improved compared with last year, we ought not to get too excited. The recovery of late 2009 was a short-term uptick, due in large part to a release in pent-up demand. My view is that the surge in demand is not the start of a rising housing market. While sales are up sharply, prices have moved “sideways.”
I have some lingering concerns for the New York market in 2010. The market has been aided by government stimulus measures – tax credits for first time buyers, in particular. This package will expire in mid-2010. While the US economy is growing, the high rate of unemployment – around 10% and somewhat higher locally – as well as a tight mortgage lending environment do not provide a firm basis for ongoing growth in house prices.
A real fear for 2010 is rising mortgage rates, currently at near record lows. The potential for growing foreclosures, which were not a problem in 2009, is another real factor.
One segment of the market that has seen a noticeable uptick has been international demand, where the weak dollar has prompted interest from Asia, Europe and South America. Demand from South Korea has also become more noticeable.
Looking outside New York, both Boston and Washington DC have also improved, with rising resale volumes in both markets. On Long Island, the Hamptons luxury second home market has surprised everyone with its resilience to date. As a discretionary market, there was general concern that this region would see large declines in prices and sales from the 2008 and early-2009 market turmoil. In fact, both sales and price trends have remained in line with the Manhattan market.
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 9880
Member since: Mar 2009
"The prime New York market, where prices fell 12.5% in 2009"
Huh? I guess it's my senility creeping in again, but hadn't MS and UD been telling us all last year how prices were rising?
http://matrix.millersamuel.com/
Jonathon Miller on the fence here... but I think he wants to jump in.
The prime New York market, where prices fell 12.5% in 2009, is gaining strength , but the recovery is tentative, says Leading New York property commentator Jonathan Miller
The frozen market in Manhattan in the first half of 2009 gave way to a much stronger second half of the year. By the summer, the market began to see a recovery in sales activity following an improvement in economic confidence prompted by a revival in the stock market.
While the market has undoubtedly improved compared with last year, we ought not to get too excited. The recovery of late 2009 was a short-term uptick, due in large part to a release in pent-up demand. My view is that the surge in demand is not the start of a rising housing market. While sales are up sharply, prices have moved “sideways.”
I have some lingering concerns for the New York market in 2010. The market has been aided by government stimulus measures – tax credits for first time buyers, in particular. This package will expire in mid-2010. While the US economy is growing, the high rate of unemployment – around 10% and somewhat higher locally – as well as a tight mortgage lending environment do not provide a firm basis for ongoing growth in house prices.
A real fear for 2010 is rising mortgage rates, currently at near record lows. The potential for growing foreclosures, which were not a problem in 2009, is another real factor.
One segment of the market that has seen a noticeable uptick has been international demand, where the weak dollar has prompted interest from Asia, Europe and South America. Demand from South Korea has also become more noticeable.
Looking outside New York, both Boston and Washington DC have also improved, with rising resale volumes in both markets. On Long Island, the Hamptons luxury second home market has surprised everyone with its resilience to date. As a discretionary market, there was general concern that this region would see large declines in prices and sales from the 2008 and early-2009 market turmoil. In fact, both sales and price trends have remained in line with the Manhattan market.
"The prime New York market, where prices fell 12.5% in 2009"
Huh? I guess it's my senility creeping in again, but hadn't MS and UD been telling us all last year how prices were rising?
whoops