The relevance of Case Shiller to Manhattan

Sorry - I should provide more context ... the question is: how relevant is the all-cited Case-Shiller Index to Manhattan real estate considering that:
1) it includes no coops,
2) it includes no condos,
3) it includes no new developments,
4) it includes no multi-family housing,
5) it includes many counties in PA, Conn, and NJ

How much do you look to the index as a gauge of the state of the NYC real estate market?

there is a case-schiller index for NYC-area condos (actually, for I think for other cities as well) that is JUST condos and coops. Its not MANHATTAN but it is much representative of the Manhattan market.

Find it on the site and use that. you will see it does closely match, but not EXACTLY match the Jonathan Miller et all data over the long term.

yes, jason10006 - totally agree - it includes 9 cities altogether and it includes just condos actually (not coops) ... thing is, this is never the cited index. local media refers to the CSI (Case Shiller Index) almost entirely, which is why i bring the point up -- i'm not sure people are aware that, however much it may or may not track, 99% of Manhattan inventory is excluded from the index.

I was talking the NYC condo index that CS has. If you click here:

http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3DCS_CondoIndices_022330.xls&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fexcel&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1243656054418&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8

You can see JUST NYC area condos in a separate column. And that one DOES include coops in the area, and is havily weighted towards Manhattan, though it does include surrounding areas too. THAT is the one i say correlates well with Jonathan Miller, though not precisely.

taken directly from the S&P case-shiller site:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_Case_Shiller_Home_Price_Indices_FAQ.pdf

5. What do the S&P/Case-Shiller Condo Indices measure?
The condo indices measure the average change in condominium home prices in
a particular geographic market.

6. Why are co-ops excluded from the condo index calculations?
Cooperatives are jointly owned by their tenants (shareholders), which makes it
difficult to separate the value of individual units from the value of the entire
cooperative. Because of their unique ownership structure, the prices of
cooperatives are not directly comparable with the prices of condominiums.

This means that still, approximately 65%+ of inventory and more about 50% of sales are not included

ok then

Honey -- haven't you heard -- Manhattan is different. Actually it's the West Village that's really really different, but the osmostic flow emanates from the WV throughout the entire island, well at least the part below Harlem, which most have recently agreed is not so different after all. So given that difference, it doesnt matter what Case Shiller, or any other historical index is composed of and what those indices actually indicate -- Manhattan prices are different!*.

* this assumes you can suspend all rational recognition of unemployment rates, price to rent and price to income ratios, the national and local economy, interest rates, state and local government deficits and their impact on taxation, local and national business profitablity, bursting of the largest housing bubble in history, and the recent near collapse of the world financial system.

i know it's hard to guess tone through posts and emails ... but i'm sensing a tad bit of sarcasm in your post, West34 :)

I certainly hope that you didn't take my post to indicate an assumption of "Manhattan's different so buy now, no national housing news matter since we always fare better" stance ... that's DEFinitely not my point. In fact, I would argue it could be the opposite. When Case-Shiller starts pointing to an uptick in housing prices, I will still say "maybe, but don't directly apply it to Manhattan".

Just wanted to shed light on one measure of housing market health that everyone looks to (almost in a biblical way) and just point out its underlying flaws as a measure for Manhattan proper (even NYC, more broadly). It clearly has its merits, but I don't think people know the specifics of what it does and does not measure.

lol, w34.