Manhattan Apartment Renters Winning Price Cuts

Remember when Jim Jones lied and said rents were up? The year over year declines are VERY STEEP compared to recent y-o-y declines.

Remember when he also lied and said incentives were done? Well what does that article state:

"“What they do is adjust the rent to where it’s necessary and then they start offering incentives,’’ CitiHabitats President Gary Malin said in an interview. About half the new leases signed in 2009 came with landlord-sponsored sweeteners, CitiHabitats said. The proportion ranged from 48 percent in July to 59 percent in December."

Y-o-y, Prudential's Miller says rents were down 8% on average, per square foot rents down 3%, and median prce down 6%. Down, down, down, like the song says.

4 of the five apartment sizes, down. All neighborhoods - down. Even in "prime" Manhattan.

Citi, meanwhile has all 4 apt sizes down. Most neighborhoods -down.

All year over year declines. Down, down, down.

Will it last forever? No. Did John Jones lie? Like a dog on a rug.

jason, who is jim jones? or john jones? don't get it

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/18918-manhattan-rents-going-higher

jim_hones i believe it is.

Jim Jones. he is trying to make us drink the kool aid. Get it?

You're all trading on old 2009 news. I'm a landlord and have been able to secure price increases since January, and yes, in prime Manhattan. They're small, and yes, still significantly down from peak, but the curve has shifted back northeast.

Interesting argument, whether rents are stabilizing after the fall - what I find odd is the notion someone has expressed in another thread that recent quarterly or month-to-month increases are because of the postponed start dates of law firm associates who would have started last fall, but instead started this January. If they had started in the fall instead of being postponed, and if that had caused rents to stabilize back then, would we be urged to just ignore that fact? Or to say, well, rents always go up a little in the fall because law firm associates are starting new jobs? And does that somehow not count in the data? The rents are stabilizing because what was supposed to happen didn't happen when it was supposed to happen but now it has happened, but you can't therefore say that the effect has also happened, because it's always supposed to happen, but this time it didn't happen on time, but it did happen, but still, the stabilization isn't happening, because that doesn't count.

I have a simpler interpretation: rents have hit bottom and may be turning the corner.

RRmets, I agree you. YOY analysis doesn't hold up when discussing rents. It's useful for sales data. Rents are continuous while sales are one time events.

no lowery, that was me. and i'm not saying it doesn't count or that it wasn't just a delayed reaction, i'm saying it speaks to the seasonal nature of the data. leases signed were up 16% this year compared to last year, forgive me, my number of total leases is from memory but i believe it was in the 2300ish range. despite leases being up 16% for this time of year prices declined. and probably 30% of the leases from the quarter were due to attorneys showing up. yes, if they had shown up in the fall that would have possibly strengthened those figures, but it's hard to determine how much since so many large buildings opened last summer and fall and they always have greater incentive to sign leases in the summer/fall as that's when they like their vacancies to fall. and if they had shown up last year and not in the first quarter think how awful those leasing numbers would have been. that's my point.

there are huge numbers of units still coming on line. most of the big buildings that debuted last year are 50% leased at best. until these and the new supply are absorbed, and until we see how many of the two-year leases signed in summer/fall of 2008 are renewed this year, i don't think we can predict where we are.

Riversider, have you tried to rent in June and also at year end December? I have. Let me tell you, it is 2 different animals both in terms of supply and demand. Your statement, unless I misread it, makes no sense based on my own personal experience.

of course the rental market is seasonal. anyone recall Tamir of elliman saying that he was trying to negotiate for his clients non-traditional rental terms so that the leases would terminate in june/july?

look at the charts.

I'm only aware of a increase in demand to rent around leading into September, tied to new grads hitting the job market. I don't know rental prices to move that much as a result of this, What's your experience?

Riversider, it's funny how different it is. Night and day. There is much more supply in the summer. Also more demand. So units just move faster (ie it isn't a bad idea to have your W2, references all ready). In the winter, things are slower. There isn't as much demand, and also not as much supply. People aren't moving. You can take your time more (not always, and not for long periods), you can negotiate, etc. All the people that originally move to NY come in the summer...hence their future leases expire in the summer (long after being recent grads).

This I agree with, From my days as a renter I saw availability change but not prices(many years ago). Looking at it from the eyes of a building owner, I could see tehm holding units off market if they believed the price would seasonally adjust, which whould limit price swings. In either case, I see both statistics are widely discussed.

no RS, supply is lower but prices are too. significantly. it's the time on the market issue.

so the upshot is i am a liar for saying that rents are increasing (month to month)?
is the landlord chiming in above also a liar?

yes

Flmao. You who make money on either side of a trade is rooting for month to month to month increase? Flmao. The tenant lives with this trade for a min of 12 months and at some $ transaction cost. WTF would you be rooting for an increase? Oh that's right if rents go from $1000 to $1050, you get an extra $30.00. You are like that gas pumper that's rooting for $20gallon gas, cause you think that's gonna get you $1tips instead of the quarter you get.

Sometimes when you myopically choose to look at just one 'career' you lose a chance of maybe becoming a great 'something/somebody'. Just in case your parents didn't explain that to you, let me be the first. If you weren't a borker what could you have been? Not enough nipple as a babe and not enough dr. Seusse.

Yes, we can all agree that on the food chain of occupations, headhunters are third worst, real estate sale brokers second the last and real estate rental brokers the absolute scrape-off-the-shoe crap.

That said, I don't begrudge someone who has no other choice but to become a real estate broker. Jim Jones, in all likelihood, had no alternatives or skills.

But to wake up every morning knowing your job is to lie to people, and knowing that they know you're lying... and that they know you're a moron... gotta be tough to live with yourself. But there's always the kool-aid, Jim Jones.

"If you weren't a borker what could you have been?"

I love how the people criticizing others' careers are the ones who have no careers. How does your wife live with you? She's a doctor, and you think you are some kind of peace-loving yogi who can change the world by posting frequently on streeteasy. Ommmmm

"Rents are continuous while sales are one time events."

What?

He is saying the rental market is more liquid.

Aboutready, what you're saying is just going around and around in circles. If the new lawyers had started their jobs last fall rather than be postponed, then the rental figures for the fall would have shown a little strength that they instead showed when those lawyers did start their jobs. So what? A season got postponed.

lowery
about 3 hours ago
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Aboutready, what you're saying is just going around and around in circles.

Kind of like when you flush the toilet, just goes around and around. Sense a theme?

hey boys and girls, i have DONE other things. Didn't care for them. I am unqualified to sit on my ass in an office. And I have an education (state school, but still).
i don't know why people here think one is either a "rental agent" or "sales agent" in ny. one license for both and including commercial real estate.
i don't know anyone who is successful at anything who lies for a living everyday. i don't. people who do don't usually last in any business (attorneys excluded of course).
lastly, the only reason i look at mom increases is because last years numbers are history. i don't really care what people paid for their apartments 12-24 months ago. it is important to me to know if they are trending up or down from where they are now.
and all of you can go fuck yourselves

> i don't know anyone who is successful at anything who lies for a living everyday.

I do... most brokers. The top selling brokers in the space have pretty much all been put on record throwing out absolute bs...

> it is important to me to know if they are trending up or down from where they are now.

Of course, if you are ignorant of where they are now, knowing if they're up or down from the period you don't know anything about is meaningless.

Effective Thursday, April 15th 2010, the following buildings will no longer be offering a free months rent.

Bamford
Barclay Tower
Belmont
Bristol
Fairmont
Grand Tier
Liberty Plaza
Marlowe
Paramount Tower
Regent
Tribeca Bridge Tower

Does this constitute a increase in rents yoy? This was not the case same time last year.

Sorry...to clarify these are Glenwood buildings.

to mgriffithc9:

I'm not sure Glenwood is a reliable indicator of common practices in NYC. They seem to price aggressively (high) and accept higher turnover as a result. I would think that if they're early to take away incentives, it's not a slam dunk that the median prices are headed up.

This discussion has some examples (do a find on 'Glenwood' in the text):

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/15102-refusal-to-lower-rents

My building is not offering any concessions; rent up modestly. We're riding it out for another year and will evaluate from there.

Im not surprised glenwood is doing this. landlords are hoping to catch a few new suckers moving into the city this spring/ summer. once they realy realize the "masses" arent coming, theyll be right back to square one, except even worse off. new developments especially.

my building (medium sized mgmt company) is still offering the free month.

Thanks for the feedback.

Marco, do you think Glenwood brings back the free months this year? This summer? Fall?

I've also found several other large mangement companies ending the free months that have been around since late 2008. Maybe it's just hubris. Too early to tell.

And after the summer, they'll probably bring it right back...

I dont know what they do...all I know is that supply is up and employment is down. until that changes, I dont see how they can increase rents.

So far, all the rental reports have shown across the board year over year rent reductions, and a few have said this includes concessions. This has been the case for over 12 months in a row. EVENTUALLY there will be an up month. Until then, its all mindless bable about anecdotes.

I prefer mindless anecdotal discussions. This is because, as was pointed out on the sq. ft. thread, the data is so unreliable that you should go by the feel rather than the data.

If the market feels up, I'm up. If it's down, I'm still up. No matter, Dolly's immaculate boobs make your oh-so-cartesian financial compass point straight north in Manhattan. It's charged dadaism you can appreciate, literally.

Some days, when the market feels down, I'll even splash a bit of paint on my walls or hang a picture, and I feel very wealthy -- because, as we all know, painting the walls accounts for dramatic value in apartments in Manhattan. Then, I cover it with white paint before anyone else can see it so that the wealth is not spoiled by a loss of exclusivity. I'm so subversive.

Sheer genius SweetNskinny!

glenwood has pulled concessions because THERE IS AN INCREASE IN DEMAND AND LESS INVENTORY
i started a thread last month about Related pulling concessions because THERE IS IN AN INCREASE IN DEMAND AND LESS INVENTORY

believe whatever you like, prices are going to go up. they were up last month, they will be up again this month, etc etc. and don't give me any bullshit about where they are compared to last year, IT DOESN'T MATTER

somewhereelse
2 days ago
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report abuse > i don't know anyone who is successful at anything who lies for a living everyday.

I do... most brokers. The top selling brokers in the space have pretty much all been put on record throwing out absolute bs...

Somewhere else, who are these brokers? What are you referring to?

Never forget that NYC is primarily a city of renters and the rental market will move quickly in response to our "local" economic environment. The "strengthening of the rental market" looks to be a combination of several forces: stock market upswing, job loss fears subsiding, companies no longer postponing hiring, spring/summer rental market period, failed condos have not all become rentals overnight, plus two more...
-renters traded up in downturn (see mentions on 1-bedroom market strength)
-landlords take full advantage of up-trends and drop incentives as their first salvo

Don't think for a minute that if Related drops incentives, Glenwood, TF Cornerstone, etc etc etc don't take notice. These builder/owner/manager companies see trends before we do, and when one takes the leap, others surely follow. I am not surprised at the list above of Glenwood's de-incentivized bldgs. They are mostly in prime locations. Locations that people seek out, trade up to, wanted to be in but couldn't afford before. LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION is always the driving force. Pricing builds up from the strong core. And it was bound to happen eventually. So it looks like its here.

Jim Hones is writing in ALL CAPS! Now he's adamant about his incorrect statements!

"These builder/owner/manager companies see trends before we do"

That's priceless. You mean like Tishman Speyer? I think they spotted a trend about 17 years before everyone else.

I am seeing alot of supply for 3 bedrooms on the UES in the 9k-12k range (west of lex/dm building). I was wondering whether any of you thought this price might come down a bit? I good 2br is bw 4-6k. 3k seems like a steep premium to pay for the 3br or a dining room.

have looked at several 3brs in ues in glenwoods and relateds from 7-9k/mo...theyre out there

"These builder/owner/manager companies see trends before we do"

ROTFL.