dow @11k!!!

So the question now is when will the Dow hit 12,000?

Woo Hoo!! Dow 11,000 VERY nice way to start the weekend

And no lets hear from the poopers :)

that should say now not no

Dow 12,000 for next weekend?

Probably accounts for the all of a sudden 15 open houses this weekend that meet my criteria.

It sounds like the equity markets are getting a bit frothy.

why does it have to do with the real estate value? Dow is going up -> more money goes to the equity market to chase profit -> less money sitting duck at the real estate market

Of course, the fact that it closed lower than 11,000?

"Time to bust out the dow 11K hat."

What does a Dow 11K hat look like? Like Texas ten-gallon hat with a picture of the Wall Street bull statue on it?

Nick,
Because economic prosperity starts with financial stability. Need i say more?

"Time to bust out the dow 11K hat."

What does a Dow 11K hat look like? Like Texas ten-gallon hat with a picture of the Wall Street bull statue on it?

Nick,
Because economic prosperity starts with financial stability. Need i say more?

Nick,
Because economic prosperity starts with financial stability. Need i say more?

"Time to bust out the dow 11K hat."

What does a Dow 11K hat look like? Like Texas ten-gallon hat with a picture of the Wall Street bull statue on it?

"What does a Dow 11K hat look like? Like Texas ten-gallon hat with a picture of the Wall Street bull statue on it? "

http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/dow10000.jpg

Add 1,000 more to that hat.

it is good. my equity portfolio goes up and my future real estate puchase keeps getting cheaper. it is good times.

Stock Market has no value. The main rationale to buy is hat it's going up. Its hold your nose and close your eyes. G-d help the longs when this cyclical bull market ends. Do not confuse this for a secular bull market.

RE bears: like it or not RE prices will eventually follow stock prices. this rally has legs and sentiment is still pretty neutral here and the Vix is low. we keep rising.

Markets are correlated. Stock market rising will create an upward bias on Real estate. Marco will have competition from other Marcos. Of course both markets may be responding to Fed policy.

dow can go to 12000 tomorrow and that will not change the fact that in Manhattan, for the short term, RE is headed further down due to the economic displacement suffered in the city. some of that displacement is permanent. Its going to be years before the city gets back to full steam. why do you think you still see empty storefronts all over the city?? why is the rental market still in decline??

Rental market is up vs last quarter.

Dare I ask...based on what? Surely you can find a completely irrelevant YouTube to support this statement?

>>"What does a Dow 11K hat look like? Like Texas ten-gallon hat with a picture of the Wall Street bull statue on it?"

>>http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/dow10000.jpg

That hat looks ratty old, must be one from 1999.

Hey, why don't you make an NYC RE $1000 psf hat? We'll post links to it in about a decade.

"Stock Market has no value."

Pray, tell, oh wise one that has read & posted every single news article & blog manifesto known to mankind, what exactly has "value" in this world?

Commodities.

What about stocks that produce or extract commodities? Do they have value?

I'd also put more faith in the value of a quality condo in Manhattan over a basket of stocks at this point. NYC real estate market has the virtue of limited land. I see real estate moving sideways but see the potential for stocks to fall.

What about stocks that produce or extract commodities? Do they have value?

Commodity producers are a very small percentage of the market cap, but ok, it's not a pure play, but this may work.

marco we've heard the stories on these boards of NYC RE crashing further than the moderate fall we've already seen. you even agree that the economy and wealth effect of the stock market are real. yet you still hold on to your RE conflagration fantasy. it simply makes no sense.

So commodity stocks do have value. OK.

How about MSFT? They seem to have like $25 or $30 billion in the bank. They seem to earn about $15 billion a year. They seem to pay out $5 billion in dividends every year. They seem to be doing share buybacks to the tune of another maybe $5 billion a year. Does MSFT have value?

I'll give you the cash value per share which without checking is way under the current market price. Bottom line on a macro basis stock values have been bid up too high. This isn't to suggest that the S&P will go to zero. Just that it represents more at risk money than NYC real estate.

I also agree that stocks are up on air right now. Im also not gonna fight the tape either. manhattan re is a totally different story. not only is buying more difficult, but there are also less buyers. I do believe that 5 years from its a better than 50/50 chance that re prices are higher. thats not gonna help all the new construction that needs buyers now.

"I'll give you the cash value per share which without checking is way under the current market price."

Sounds reasonable. I'll buy your apartment for whatever cash happens to be sitting around in the closets.

"I'd also put more faith in the value of a quality condo in Manhattan over a basket of stocks at this point."

No, we saw what a market can do to the real estate prices, and it went up independently of the real estate. RE won't be treaded as much as in the last 10 years, that's it stable RE market and it means that prices won't really go up. There is still more downside to it, increased interest rates, forecloses, etc.

Commodities are going to pick up again - steel, copper, precious like silver (though not gold). Oil will take a bit of rest, but may still get up.

Tech companies - MSFT is undervalued a bit, APPL if IPAD is a success. Also you will see lots of copy cats of IPAD, which could be a success for some of the companies.

Real Estate is basically done, no one is going to really play it since the Feds watching it now. That's of course has plusses, but forget about 2007 prices. May be in 20 years.

This is an excellent thread. It should be cross-referenced to this one:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6359-where-are-all-the-idiots-who-made-the-2007-doomsday-predictions

ericho, the EXACT TIME TO BUY into the stock market is when it's been up for 7 weeks in a row for no apparent reason, which all negative news is disregarded, and when it's at an 18-month high. NOW IS THE TIME TO PILE YOUR MONEY IN!

I'm a long-term stock market bull, FYI. But the same misguided enthusiasm for something whose price has risen unnaturally led to the real-estate bust:

"Friends had bought homes and “were getting appraisals,” he said. “Every time it was, like, ‘My house is up 50 percent.’”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/realestate/11hunt.html

ericho...hows that copper chart lookin?

We are entering a typically bearish time of year-sell in May and go away is the motto. I think we stay range bound with the occasional puke out and puke up through the summer. going to make for boring trading. From this base I think we go higher in the fall.

"ericho, the EXACT TIME TO BUY into the stock market is when it's been up for 7 weeks in a row for no apparent reason, which all negative news is disregarded, and when it's at an 18-month high. NOW IS THE TIME TO PILE YOUR MONEY IN!"

ironically, steve made the exact opposite (and MORE painful) mistake, when he sold at the lows!

nice job!

"I'd also put more faith in the value of a quality condo in Manhattan over a basket of stocks at this point."

people said the same thing about tulips and Japanese real estate.

Of course, the facts don't support this.

"of NYC RE crashing further than the moderate fall we've already seen."

This is funny. We have a crash officially. That is a "moderate fall"?

Now THAT is funny.

> How bout that!
> Must be a horrible 15 months for the bears.
> Every day, it's up up up up.

Yes, I REALLY feel for the stock market bears.

Of course, I REALLY REALLY feel for the stock market bears who were also RE bulls!

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/JGLetter_ALL_1Q10.pdf

Speculators are not stupid. They see that after each crash,
a long, artificial period of low rates and easy financial
borrowing has been delivered. They see that Bernanke is an
unreconstructed Greenspanite in that he refuses to address
bubbles, but will leap to help ease the pain should a bubble
break. With asymmetry like that, why not speculate? And
so another bubble appears and then another. This time, the
recovery for the total market was 80% in one year, second
only to 1932, and the really speculative stocks are almost
double the market, as they also were in 1932.

ericho75
Time to bust out the dow 11K hat.

How bout that!
Must be a horrible 15 months for the bears.
Every day, it's up up up up.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The party hats for Dow 11k came out a bit early.. NO?

classic

Ericho! It's time to put your asshat on!

wannabuy, today was indeed boring.

so bored gonna take a nap...

prediction....dow will not see 12k in 2010

ericho.....whats goin on with that copper chart??? I thought it was up up and away....pls..give me your indepth technical anaysis of copper.

copper just a start, major correction for gold coming

Flmao. Erichoooooooooooooooooooooooooo? Where r u?

hee hee

lookin nice today

The fear algorithms are selling more than the greed algorithms.

did someone just say that people are fearful and not greedy right now?

know what that means...

pigs are getting slaughtered?

yup... and it might be time to be greedy again.

This time is different... (besides it's not people who are greedy & fearful but the machine algorithms)
Doesn't feel like all this activity represents anything but short term views on the market. The situation in Europe tells me that earnings estimates are way too optimstic and don't account for reality. We'll see.

people aren't fearful right now? interesting

more like numb

Ericho!!!!!!!!!!!!! your fans are clamoring for your market analysis. please...what do the candlesticks tell you???

the oracle of yahoo spoke yesterday---investing is risky.

but heavy interest in junk bonds may be bullish.

help...ericho...what do i do now??

Change the title to Dow10k!

Change the name to dowN jones

You had to sell when the thread was made, it was pretty obvious time for a correction.

Now lets see the predictions when the market is going to hit the lowest point for the next 6 months.

this thing could have a nine handle soon enuff

erichooooooooooo

whoaoaoaoaoo

oh noooooooooooooooo

where'd my money gooooooooooooooo

we just settled on the looooooooooooooo

what a shlt shooooooooooooooo

gotta gooooooooooooooo

Oooooooooohhhhhhh.... can't wait to buy apple at $1!, gonna make the lemmings wish they had some liquidity when the capitulation comes!

WHO SAYZ you can't time the markets?!!!... oh yeah lemmings.... here is your $8K, now geitner will proceed to take away your 20% downpayment exactly as the playbook states... it was all written in black and white... Can't you ppl speak keebler?

"Time to bust out the dow 11K hat."

ericho - I think it's time to break out your Dow 10K cap...

http://www.townfield.doncaster.sch.uk/images/Jan2004/clean%20slate%202004%20(36).jpg

The "D" is for Dow isn't it!?

D= dunce

10068.01 -376.36‎ (-3.60%‎) May 20 4:02pm ET

Is anyone gonna wanna hold stock over the weekend?

"I'd also put more faith in the value of a quality condo in Manhattan over a basket of stocks at this point."

Funny. Yes, all the risk, more with leverage, more with NYC/NYS tax policy, NONE of the diversification.
Its like we've thrown 100 years of investing fundamentals out the window because people like that they can touch and feel a condo... or a tulip.

Must say, I've added Ericho to my list of technical contra-indicators. He/She seemed to have called the market top perfectly.

erichoooooooo...where are you on this all time high in copper

The first baby boomer turns 65 in 2011 to be followed by wave after wave of retirees who will be net redeemers of stocks. Some time in 2011 I expect Time Magazine or similar to do a big cover story(why not?). I can't see how the baby boomer generation retiring and liquidating their portfolios to be bullish for the stock market.

shouldnt they have already reallocated into fixed income by now ???

"where are you on this all time high in copper"

shouldn't you know?
weren't you one of those idiots that laughed at the idea of Copper making new all time highs 7 months ago?

Market is closing out at the highs.
Copper at record highs.
Holiday sales came in strong.

Things are turning, but some of you morons continue to call for double dips, we're still in recession, etc, etc.

I really need to dig out the 'GREEN SHOOT' threads back in July of 2009.

All you knuckle heads sound completely clueless.

Cooper caught everyone off guard. Our economy was not that strong. But the Chinese insist on building goods and housing that go unused.

ericho...I closed on my apartment at the end of september...wouldnt you like to be able to say the same??

Riversider,

Did you not see recent holiday sales number?
I'm not suggesting we're having a rip roaring bull market, but a slower growth period is definite.

Who do you think the Chinese are building the goods for?

"ericho...I closed on my apartment at the end of september...wouldnt you like to be able to say the same??"

Closed? I bought in Spring of 09 and closed in August of 09. Sorry, but i'm not looking to buy or sell for a long time.

"marco_m
about 17 months ago
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Parts of the country are in a depression. If you are out of work, its definitely a depression. I think we are going to have a 1980's - 1990's Japan like experience."

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12135-stock-market-looking-ill

So, how's the depression going?
MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!!

and I changed my mind which is why I bought...in Manhattan. where do you live ?

Congrats. Would you had gotten a better deal if you would had bought in 09 instead?

I've lived in Manhattan for 20 years. Moved to Long Island City in 2004. Rented for 5 years before making the plunge.

worse deal...seller cut his price a couple times from 2009 till when I bought.

> "ericho...I closed on my apartment at the end of september...wouldnt you like to be able to say the
> same??"
> Closed? I bought in Spring of 09 and closed in August of 09. Sorry, but i'm not looking to buy or
> sell for a long time.

Uh, not really. Studios are down another 7% since then in manhattan, one bedrooms 6%.

Wow! We r up, what? 600pts in 8 months? 1% better than risk free bonds? 10% worse than high yield, 20% worse than commodities.

Yeh but your call on lic and nyc re is dead on! Flmaoz. Here comes the 2nd leg.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203513204576048251198965310.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_LEFTSecondNews

good summary of why to be cautious about stocks.....

Riversider,

Did you not see recent holiday sales number?
I'm not suggesting we're having a rip roaring bull market, but a slower growth period is definite.

Who do you think the Chinese are building the goods for?

--------------
Because only a small percent of china is exports. China fudges it's GDP numbers far far worse than the U.S., but the biggest piece I believe is housing, which they insist on building even though the units stay vacant. Same goes for many other items.

Jim Chanos the guy who figured out Enron, thinks if you could see the true gdp numbers of china, exports would be roughly 5%. China computes its GDP based on production and not consumption. So if they build an item that sits in a warehouse or construct an unlived in apartment it counts.

China is a fast growing economy, but it's also centrally planned to a fair extent. While I think the central planners are very smart over there, the economy is just too large ot handle in this way. I would not be surprised to find out things are not going as well as we believe or that there are huge structural imbalances going on. To keep their people working their companies work off paper thin margins and this is yet another reason why they are unwilling to let their currency rise.

DOW 12K!!!
COPPER AT ALL TIME HIGHS!!!!

BOOOYAH!

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w1

Didn't you say to sell when it almost hit 11k? And if youre so smart shouldn't you have sold your PH lic unit and put 100% of your net worth into stks where it has risen 80% in one year?

Oh i get it. You put 90% of net worth into lic and put 2% into stks and copper, but you get braggging rights but none of the financial glory of actually buying an apartment in manhattan. Flmaozzzzzz.