Will potential terrorist attacks affect RE?

Given NYC's RE's status as a luxury item - one that has little or no relation to actual cash flow - I would suspect that a series of sucessful car bombs in the city could put a dent (temporarily at least) in prices.

Terror risk assessment and acceptance is a tricky one. NYC is the prime target in the US for a bio/chem/nuclear attack from terrorists - any of which could make the city inhabitable for children and many others. Conventional attacks, such as car bombs, would be less damaging but would still deter many from not only living in NYC but working here as well.

Yet, I would speculate that very, very few home buyers during the RE boom even factored terror into their decision making process - in other words, NYC RE hasn't traded at a "terror discount" but rather at a bizarre "terror premium" given how the vast majority have simply ignored it has a buying factor.

People have been willing to pay 2x rent and take on appreciation risk (which also evidently didn't exist in the eyes of many) AND live in a city that could be crippled by a bio/chem/radiation attack because buying RE (not just in NYC) wasn't a rational economic decision but a sort of luxury speculation backed by exceptionally easy money (both "earned" and interest rates).

I am not saying that everyone in NYC should live in fear - I was just blocks away from the WTC and just recently (thank god) got over what I believe was a lingering 9/11 ailment - I never though of leaving the city. I just don't think that most RE participants paying top dollar really take terror attack risks into account when buying apartments.

There is a sort of denial that it could happen again that is reflected in high prices and a lack of serious risk-assessment discussion regarding NYC RE.

And given that this bomb didn't go off, I would bet that most won't even think of it a month from now while looking to buy in NYC.

Did 9/11 have any effect other than a short/minor blip? I'd assumed it had, but looking at MillerSamuel's charts, no noticeable effect on prices or volume. I vaguely remember a couple of stories in the paper about a few hysterics bundling their kids off to the Hamptons (of all places) but that was it.

Same things been occurring in London, Paris, Madrid, Tel Aviv and so on.. None of these cities are turning into a ghost town. It's sad what psychopaths and terrorists consider acceptable...

The gov't went out of its way to keep the economy going and help create a RE bubble mostly by lowering interest rates but also here in NYC by declaring the WTC area to be "safe" when it clearly wasn't. I really don't think that people understand how opening the downtown area was a decision that put common peoples' health at stake just for the facade that "everything will be ok".

Riversider, your comments are valid but they also reflect what I am talking about - none of those cities have experienced bio/chem/nuc attacks (on a grand scale). That threat is a potential game changer in NYC and the vast majority of RE participants simply don't factor it in when spending outrageous non-cash flow based amounts on NYC RE.

The gov't went out of its way to keep the economy going and help create a RE bubble mostly by lowering interest rates

Bernanke has much in common with his mentor Greenspan. If we have another crash he will bear a great deal of responsibility. Bernanke's cure for a bubble is another bubble. It's like the bar-tender who prescribes a vodka shot to cure a hang-over

65 yrs ago, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were basically obliterated. Now, here's something to think about - I would not be here today if they hadn't been bombed.

And not in a butterfly-flappy kinda way.

You are correct Riversider.

The problem is that the whole system is now dependent on price inflation, low interest rates and a gross underestimated sense of risk (in the search for higher yields).

God forbid we return to a rational interest rate environment where price increases are kept to a minimum and failure/bankruptcy risk isn't factored out of the equation.

We are presently in a La La land where if irresponsible and excessive risk taking companies (and countries) don't "succeed" in their ponzi scheme ways, taxpayers and more conservative economic participants (savers and more rational asset buyers) pay for the clean-up.

It is ridiculous and unfortunately a world-wide phenomenon.

Successful terrorist attacks should make suburban real estate skyrocket. I wonder how many potential terrorist attacks occurred that the govt. has not told anyone about. I'm sure there are at lest 2 for every one the public knows about.

Bring back George Bush

http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/news/local_news/nyc/pakistani-taliban-claims-responsibility-20100502-ac

According to Fox News, in a 1 minute video allegedly released by the Pakistani Taliban, the group says the attack is revenge for the death of its leader Baitullah Mehsud and the recent killings of the top leaders of al-Qaida in Iraq.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/7668606/Times-Square-car-bomb-police-investigate-South-Park-link.html

Police in New York are investigating whether a car bomb in Times Square was targeted at the makers of South Park over a controversial depiction of the Prophet Mohammed.

I think the whole thing was staged by the government to scare the hell out of us yet again into complying with having our civil liberties infringed upon.

Isn't it interesting (and convenient) that this happened on the first really warm weekend, and was thwarted just in time for the Sunday morning network talk shows and evening news broadcasts ... complete with an ever-so-convenient "claim of responsibility" from one of those nasty terrorist groups?

"complete with an ever-so-convenient "claim of responsibility" from one of those nasty terrorist groups?"

And yet that claim was IMMEDIATELY dissmissed as most likely untrue by the FBI and NYPD. Sort of blows a hole in your theory.

Holy crap Matt: "yet again?" - are you one of those 9/11 conspiracy theorists also? I've never met one of you guys in real life.

wow, i'm kinda with matt on this.. i hadn't heard and was at my grandparents in queens last nght, the news was on, and i hear what sounds like a freakin gameshow, talking about a terrorist attack in times square. i could not figure out what was going on, it sounded so totally fake and sensationalist, like the media's only angle was to stir up fear and paranoia. not one iota of what people should do, what measures had been taken, how to proceed in the morning, no rationalization or guidance at all, just shameslessly trying to spread hysteria. disgusting. my grandfather confirmed to me that yes this had actually happened. other than the bloomberg news outline, i have purposely not read or listened to one bit of the "media coverage" of this as it is quite clear they are trying to manipulate our sensibilities in a highly questionable way - any fool can see that. i am not saying i think it was planned by the govt, but i sure wouldn't rule it out. what i do think is regardless of how this unfortunate act originated, it's very clear what the govt/media is trying to do with it, their agenda is pretty transparaent in the way they paint this stuff. keep us living in a state of fear so they can get away with all kinds of power-fueled atrocities. the patriot act is easily the biggest injustice committed againts the american public in our lifetime. the saddest thing is that the majority just trust that it's patriotic and like the way it sounds, having no idea just how badly it strips our civil liberties. most of these yahoos across america wouldn't believe it if you told them. this country is really in the sh*tter. i think i am starting to trust the conspiracy theorists more than the govt/media! and not without good reason.

smells like western civilization

more like a spaghetti western.

So who is in on this conspiracy? Is Mayor Bloomberg on the take from the Obama administration to make it look good? Police Commissioner Kelly? Was the guy who happened to see the smoke and alert the cops some kind of Manchurian candidate?

And the basic idea is that the Obama administration planned a fake terrorist attack so they could make an act put in by the Bush administration look good?

i don't think its fair to lump the government together with the media in this issue.

the media's job is to stir up trouble, to find villans wherever possible and to blame someone, anyone for failing to do something. i don't like it but i understand why they do it.

the government is obligated to respond seriously to everything for fear that if they don't they will get sucked into the blame game.

a vicious cycle for sure but hardly a conspiracy.

Far right teabag wingnut. most likely. What I really can't wait to hear is how Hannity and Palin think their anger and frustration are justified.

They love America and their freedom so much they just had to blow some stuff up.

the news today is just not the news of 10 years ago. have you guys not noticed a major change in the tone/content/format etc, for the worse? i'm just saying i don't feel in any way protected or assured by the lines being fed to me by the govt or by the media. they are obviously trying to get us all worked up, and eagerly encourage living in a state ruled by fear and bias. it's inauthentic and i don't trust it. national insecurity seems to be the name of the game

If Al Qaeda was responsible for the car bomb in Times Sqaure, it would have exploded. Plus the bomb was very low tech and I don't think Al Qaeda would have used such a bomb. The terorist is likely just a lone wolf like the guy who flew his plane into the IRS.

The media stokes fears to boost ratings. There is no conspiracy beyond that.

I do think that the government likes to keep us on our toes, as we should be. There really are bad people and they really do want to hurt us. However, I do not think that this administration, as opposed to the previous one, is actively conspiring to compromise civil liberties (although could we be softer on Arizona Barak, sheesh, the Major League Ballplayers have been more emphatic in their opposition). Of course the media has a vested interest in terrorist attacks, celebrity ODs, and killer earthquakes/hurricanes. They drive ratings. When Princess Diana died the first person I thought of was the publisher of People...best selling issue ever (at the time). Ratings bring revenue. And the media may be blowing (no pun intended) the Times Square truck bomb incident out of proportion...I sincerely doubt they planted it there.

I also, along with others on this board apparently, strongly suspect that the perpetrator here is going to be found out to have nothing to do with Al Queda or Islamic Fundamentalism. This smells of domestic terrorism ala Timothy McVeigh and Oklahoma City. At that time, 15 years amazing, Rush Limbaugh and his ilk took alot of flak for inciting nut cases and had to go slightly on the DL for a while, only to reemerge rabid as ever. Is it possible that this time...those who prey on the worst instincts of angry white men can finally be held accountable?

Unless it's a catastrophic(dirty bomb)and a succesful one, I doubt it.
As big as 9/11 was, it really only seriously affected FIDI. If I recall, the market then was around $600 psqft and a few risk takers (a couple friends of mine as well) bought in at around $400 psqft. And that only lasted a year.

The evolution of news media is driven by marketing. The makers of Sham-Wow demand big audience numbers for their advertising dollar so news org attracts audience by flashy sets and over-the-top sensationalistic coverage, which plays to our attention deficits. It's entertainment. If you want clean and sober news, try PBS or BBC.

It'd be interesting to see some calculation of the local economic effect of our response to 9/11. Not just the billions for memorials, first-responder compensation, etc., but lost productivity. E.g., my building sits on top of Penn Station, and we have quarterly fire drills, quarterly non-fire-emergency drills, and so on. All of that, plus more we're necessarily not told about, multiplied by hundreds of buildings, comes with a cost. On the other hand, there's a whole new industry employing retired police officers and firefighters.

NWT -security has blossomed as a growth industry here. I think residual benefits outweigh any loss in productivity. I have had some involvement in the explosion in data storage and communication diversity and security since 9/11. This is a huge and mostly unseen industry. In fact, many of the architecture solutions being employed today relate right back to productivity and survivability.

we are truly resilient here - RE price softening after 9/11 was extremely short-lived.
this failed attack will have no effect on RE pricing.
jeez even if it hadn't failed, i don't think it would have much impact on housing.
perhaps that is what is giving so much floor to the crazy pricing we have here - terrorism premiums already priced in?
the coverage of the failed terrorist attack in times square looked and sounded like a sham-wow commercial.
i also think it's interesting that it happened in the middle of the whole immigration/safe borders debate.

Sure, terrorism is priced in here just like earthquakes are in SF. We seem incapable of pricing in potentially catastrophic events. Its Monty Pythonism - always look on the bright side of life..

If one farts in the forrest and no one hears it....does it make a noise?

Anything impacting safety will have an impact on RE prices. If an area is not safe then people will not want to buy there. NYC is somewhat shielded from the detremental effect this could have on smaller areas but in NYC there are countless problems that we need to worry about on a daily basis. Too worry about NYC as a target is foolish. If something is going to happen it will happen. We are a target being NYC but we cannot abandon our way of life or this city bc of a potential threat that will always be lingering. The world has learned to deal and 10 years after 911 you would think that we have learned to deal too.

I would argue the SF Bay area is unsafe, yet people can't get enough of those Oakland/Berkeley Hills stilt houses with bay views. I would argue FL panhandle beachfront in unsafe, yet they're still building and still selling. etc.

NWT, you are right about the actual 9/11 impact on local real estate prices -- it was minimal. My line is that "prices went down 10 percent for about 10 minutes." Not surprised that that doesn't show up in the historical quarterlies at all.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

"the news today is just not the news of 10 years ago. have you guys not noticed a major change in the tone/content/format etc, for the worse? i'm just saying i don't feel in any way protected or assured by the lines being fed to me by the govt or by the media. they are obviously trying to get us all worked up, and eagerly encourage living in a state ruled by fear and bias. it's inauthentic and i don't trust it. national insecurity seems to be the name of the game"

Glamma you are SPOT ON.

And this coming from myself -- not only a member of the media -- but a former network news executive producer.

We (both the local and network media) no longer fact-check everything; we rush to air official government press releases as if they're gospel.

Did any of the reporters "covering" this story actually SEE this car in Times Square? SEE the defused "bomb"? SEE the timing device with their own eyes? Or did they see PICTURES that were released by authorities? (By the way the picture of that timing device looked suspiciously like a toy clock, but whatever -- no one is asking questions anyway, so what does it matter.)

When the Fourth Estate no longer questions authority -- that is truly the death of a "free" press.

Is there anyone who doesn't think poor Matt has finally gone too far -- kooky and self-discrediting in the extreme, with a dash of pretentious?

Anyone?

Clearly not, reallynow.

I'm sure if this was 100 years ago, you'd be one of those people describing Albert Einstein as "kooky and self-discrediting in the extreme, with a dash of pretentious".

And I'm sure if this was 40 years ago, you'd be one of those people describing Alfred E. Neuman as "kooky and self-discrediting in the extreme, with a dash of pretentious".

Isn't it more likely that this was the work of BP, trying to divert attention away from the debacle in the Gulf? When it comes down to it, blame everything on Big Oil.

Oh. So now Matt is likening himself to Einstein!

printer, or maybe GS. or a collaborative effort? BP/GS?

actually, my money's on halliburton. (sorry, just had to).

On second thought, Oprah is behind it. Let's face it, she's the one pulling the strings on just about everything these days. Or it could be Tiger Woods - I haven't seen one of his ladies on the cover of the Post for a few days now - coincidence? Only to Nazi sympathizers.

BP has more to do with the roots of terror and the rise of modern day Islamic militancy than I suspect most people realize. Anyone remember AIOC?

So Matt, to find a solitary, contrary position that pits him against everyone, and gets him attention, will adopt any view, no matter how absurd?

"Did 9/11 have any effect other than a short/minor blip? I'd assumed it had, but looking at MillerSamuel's charts, no noticeable effect on prices or volume. I vaguely remember a couple of stories in the paper about a few hysterics bundling their kids off to the Hamptons (of all places) but that was it. "

Rents dropped immediately and dramatically, and lasted at least for a few months, and took a while to get back to where they were (years, I think).

I'm with Glamma and NYCMatt. This was totally done by the government. Bloomberg is going to use this an a way to whip up frenzy so he can lower the salt content in food in NYC by 20% instead of 15% and do it much faster. Great plan, especially on a warm day when people might be out eating pretzels from the vendors in Times Square, with all that salt on it, and that yellow mustard.

Aha! A Philly agitprop operative has infiltrated this thread.

What gives it away? New Yorkers never put mustard on pretzels. Never.

bslotkin, are you now or have you ever been?

that's not all he puts mustard on.

alanhart I am now.
So I was looking for that joker Kiyosaki on this board who was imagining Jesus coming down to earth and starting us on a process to peace. Just found it in the Goldman thread http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/20078-smartest-guys-or-human-excrement

@columbiacounty
>so...here's how we get started.

>a politician stands up and says: there are no easy answers anymore. for a viable future, we need to have shared sacrifice. rather than try to figure out how and which programs to cut, lets start with a lengthy dialogue aimed at creating a process that is fair.

>i naively thought that obama was that guy; i think he may have thought he was as well.

there's some irony. someone loonier than can be, calling cc loony.

look, i love glamma, but i think she was more reacting to our gov't's recent tendencies (read bush and his push for his second term and his patriot act and his using 9/11 etc.), than she was thinking about what this one incident might portend (glamma, if i have misrepresented your thoughts, shoot me down girl).

you want to attach yourself to matt and his wayward thoughts, well, bslotkin be our guest.

ar - I KNEW it, Haliburton!! now its all coming together - can i get a hellyeah! btw, how are things?

What a surprise, Rich Dad Kiyosaki has a cult following all waiting for this Jesus politician to show up and show us the way. (well, maybe not quite show us the way - too ambitious, but start us down a lengthy dialog at creating a process to show us the way). Way to sound impressive but say nothing, just like Robert Kiyosaki.

and the Jews did 9/11 so you wouldn't notice them stealing your money through Goldman.

That is so absurdely stupid. You think that Clinton planned the 9-11 or Bush? Because this junk with Goldman is under Obama. Did the Republicans cooperate with the Democrats? Or you think that the Democracts did it all and knew they would have someone in the middle? Stupid.

And how about this oil spill creating more mess for our economy and New York? This is the worst for us on top of this problem with foreigners terrorism in New York and worldwide.

bgrfrank you're right. It's so ... Trilateral.

You're trilateral.

No...you are.

No you are and what am I?

Child

Who do you think is responsible?

Nancy. Reagan, all along. You know it's the truth.

bgr

Nobody wants to listn to you spew your bs here. Go to teabagger.com or fox "news".com or crazyassliberal.org and post there. Let me say this again...nobody cares what you think about oil spills on a NYC real estate website. Yes it is sad, but it isn't relevant at all.

i just find the whole thing totally bizarre. someone tries to blow up times square, and no one's even talking about it, which is a hell of a thing to not talk about. the minimal, vague and sketchy information we have been given is not reliable or helpful, no one's questioning anything, and no seems to care about that either. this will definitely NOT affect real estate prices. i don't even think it will affect tourism.

bgr is a nutjob

Well I guess I was wrong about this one, seems like it was foreign terrorists rather than the home grown kind. Alas I think we still need to be vigilant about both. I'm not saying everyone who disagrees with me, or with President O is a terrorist, or even that every "teabagger" is--but we do no their is a element of violence on the radical right (as there was on the radical left 40 years ago) that needs to be taken seriously--along with our "friends" from Al Queda and their "franchisees".

Melvin Kovnophski....what me, worry?

Liz: The question is: Will the potential of future successful terrorist attacts...

Failed terrorist attacts, and those busted in time to stop the bad guys don't seem to bother people as much.

We got lucky with this one. Alert street vendors: on the look-out. Citizens: still not with the "If you see something, say something" program.

I wonder if the Dallas crazy flying into an IRS bldg affected Dallas RE. I wonder if the DC sniper impacted DC re. I wonder if frequent Earthquakes and Hurricanes and Tornadoes affect RE in SF, HA, or Omaha. In short I think no, or if so its been priced in a long, LONG time ago.

A counter-question to the original poster question:
did the failed terrorist act affect YOUR real estate plans and/or desires?
I thought so.

This asshole turns out to be from NY: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/washington-gunman-nyc-called-sweet-peaceful-article-1.1457887

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/22214-obama-wants-ny-9-11-trial-mosque-what-next?page=2
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/us/libyan-terror-suspect-brought-to-new-york-for-trial.html?_r=0
Qaeda Suspect Is Brought to New York for a Hearing

By BENJAMIN WEISER, CHARLIE SAVAGE and ERIC SCHMITT.

Published: October 14, 2013

The terrorism suspect who had been undergoing interrogation on a Navy ship after his recent capture in Libya was brought to New York over the weekend and was to appear before a federal judge on Tuesday, officials said.

The decision to bring the suspect, Nazih Abdul-Hamed al-Ruqai, to New York was made because his chronic health problems worsened after he stopped eating and drinking aboard the San Antonio, a Navy vessel in the Mediterranean, officials said.