Today starts the official DOWNFALL

Please answer me this Einstein. When was the last time this country had a recession in an election year?

I feel OP has some merit but not as drastic and it will start some time in 2009.

"When was the last time this country had a recession in an election year?"

1980

Oh no..just when I was finally going to bite the bullet and buy. This is why I don't know whether it's better to rent or buy??? HELP!!!

It makes no sense to respond to complete nonsense.
Nonsense 1: Missing earnings. Most of the S&P are beating estimates thus the market is at an all time high. So what if Google missed.

Nonsense 2: Fed will raise. Its projected the Fed will stay put throughtout 08. Even if not due to the sinking dollar, who cares? Mortgage rates follow the 10 year bond which fell under 5% today.

Nonsense 3: The sinking dollar is helping NYC realestate, not hurting. Go ahead, sink more please. Let all the overseas cheap currency come in and push prices higher.

We can go on and on here.....

Wall Street going sour? Most banks have grown by 20% or more this quarter. How is that sour?

See, I told you before..... remember what I said.....

Okay, OP - so put your money where your mouth is. I'll bet you $1,000 that according to someone like Miller Samuels (or some other number cruncher to be agreed upon) that general Manhattan residential real estate will down LESS THAN 15% from today until year's end. If it's down 15% OR MORE, you win the bet.

I will even make a side bet with you on under one million dollar Manhattan residential real estate properties you refer to. I will bet you ANOTHER $1,000 that these properties as a sub group are ALSO down less than 15% from today until the end of this year. If these properties are down 15% OR MORE, you win the bet.

Are you ready to put your money where your mouth is?

Looks like the OP is not so sure now! Good job #9.

Not that I share the OP's sentiments, but the probability of any asset class dropping 15% over the next year is always going to be a lot lower than 50%, so the OP should obviously hold out for more favorable (and equitable) terms, even if he thinks this is going to happen.

But thats not what the OP said - "he promised" the 15% decline and from the language in the post he is almost guaranteeing it will happen. So your more reasonable approach might make sense to us, but that was not the OP's prediction. Based on the language in his post he should be willing to wager with #9 on the terms set forth in #9's post.

#12, I don't think you're distinguishing sufficiently between the probability the OP assigns to this happening and the probability the OP thinks the market would assign to this happening. Even if the OP thinks it is 75% likely this would happen, he knows that the market assigns a much lower probability and, so, should be able to get a better wager. So, no reason for him to take a bet on terms that are so out of whack with the market.

Similarly, if I think Google stock will definitely be worth $750 in a week, it still wouldn't make sense for me to pay any more than it sells for in the market (since I can get it at the market price).

#11, 12, 13:

You are both incorrect - the OP did NOT say down 15% in a year - the OP said down 15% between now and the end of THIS YEAR - to wit -

"...I call a 15% correction coming in Manhattan real estate before January, 2008..."

That's about five months from now. In fact, now that I think about it, I'd like to up the wager amounts I offered above to $5,000 (not $1,000) on each of the wagers I initially offered.

So, OP [HimWhoKnows(Nothing)], are you ready NOW to put your moey where your mouth is? We're still waiting to hear from you....where'd you disappear to?

JohnDoe, I think you are the OP because you make about as much sense as he does.

Go ahead and buy! But just watch, the hands of this economy is controlled by a few individuals.

Here is the scoop:

1. Oil will hit 100/barrel
2. Fed will raise to 5.5
3. ARM readjust. Defaults/foreclosures
4. Stock market drops 5-10%
*not only did Google miss, Caterpillar, yahoo, and everything outside
of energy is off. This is a sign the economy is slowing.
5. A recession going to the 08' elections will guarantee the democratic
nomination.
*Bloomberg will enter as a pat on the shoulder to the Clintons.
6. Economy worsens and GDP declines. More Hedge Funds collapse, especially
those with mortgage securities.
7. All these factors exclude Market Risk. God forbid acts of terrorism, natural disaster,
or other such factors.

I think these all give good reason to why we could see a 15% decline from here on out. Alot more people in the Manhattan condo market bought 750K-1.5 M apartments with Interest only mortgages. Finally, money, foreign investment is moving away from the U.S. There's more money pouring into London at the moment than NY. Also why would a foreigner invest in NY real estate if the dollar continues to decline? Think twice! G'luck to all of you that believe Manhattan real estate will continue to sky rocket up 5-10% a year infinetly. Google shares have a much better chance!

Again I'm not promising a 15% drop, it's simply the opinion on my independent research!

You are back-pedaling - read your original post my friend. You DID promise a 15% drop and BTW the stock market is at a record high - a 5 to 10% drop is not going to be the end of the world.

2babes, I'm sorry you aren't literate enough and don't have a sound enough grasp of finance to parse what I'm saying.

I'm hoping there will be some sort of drop in the Manhattan market so I could at least afford to buy. It's crazy, people who make 100k still can't afford it here. I dont' wish any ill will to anyone but I welcome a little drop.

If you can't afford Manhattan, why don't you consider Queens or Brooklyn instead of wishing for a price drop?

OP [HimWhoKnows(nothing!)]:

First you say "...I call a 15% correction coming in Manhattan real estate before January, 2008...."

Then you say "...Again I'm not promising a 15% drop..."

So which is it? Or do you always talk out of both sides of your mouth when directly challenged?

So my bet stands as offered. Do you want to put your money where your mouth is, or are you just going to blahblahblahblahblahblahblah all day long? It's real simple - $5000 - Manhattan residential real estate market down by 15% OR MORE on or before 1 January 2008, you win. Same side bet just for 1 bedroom/studio units as well. In or out?

"...the hands of this economy is controlled by a few individuals." OP is an idiot. nuff said.

JohnDoe - we are all literate enough to "grasp" your point - my point is that the OP "promised" a 15% decline , period. He said nothing of "market probability". He should be willing to back up such strong language with a wager if he is to be taken seriously. Obviously, he is not so sure of himself and should maybe think about his impulsive posts where someone might call his bluff.

OP can't be more than 18 year old. Sounds like a kid who is taking an economy class in High School.

I think it's fair to say the economy is controlled by the hands of a few individuals.

1) Oil is King: Move oil prices higher and the consumer will have less to spend elsewhere.
Oil prices also have a domino effect on costs of everything from food, electric, and retail items. Who controls oil prices? How many people? Opec/Exxon/and BP are main players.

2) The Federal Reserve: They can crumble real estate in months if they wish. At this point even a quarter basis point rate hike will have a huge impact.

3) The Promise: I clearly said I promise this is . "I promise you this is the start of a decline and price-readjustments". My belief is 15% decline, but that is my own independent thought. Not a promise, I only promise that watch for prices to decline.

Speaking of declines. Jim Rodgers made this claim:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1470530620070314

He calls a 50% decline coming, my 15% is far from that.

***Only fools think everything goes up infintely. I'm simply trying to make a point to those of you who feel Manhattan will always go up up up and up. Our economy is in the twilight zone. Just watch the upcoming FOMC meetings and yes mark this THREAD.

OP...blahblah...few individuals...blahblahblah...I call a 15% correction by the end of this year...blahblahblah...jimrodgers...blahblahblah...I'm not promising a 15% drop by the end of this year...blahblahblah...

Do you want to put your money where your mouth is or not? Do you have belief in your stated convictions or not?

I'll tell you what - since you realize that you opened you mouth before you engaged your brain, I'll make you an even MORE enticing bet. You keep predicting 15%. Why don't we say this - if Manhattan real estate drops by 10% OR MORE between today and 31 December 2006, you win, I lose. $1,000 will be the amount, so you don't feel like you're losing your entire net worth. What do you say to say that? Surely, if you're calling a 15% drop, 10% should be super easy for you to commit to, right?

Between right now and 31 December 2006, I'm betting that Manhattan residential real estate will drop LESS than 10%. That's the bet. $1,000. In or out, HimWhoKnows?

pseudonym: Uhh... 2006 (mentioned twice)? Do you have a time machine?

HimWhoKnows: yes, things do not go up forever. they come down. then they go back up. the stock market has its ups and downs, but at the end of the day (or decade) its up. same with real estate.

you are predicting a 15% drop by dec 31 2007. pretty bold. outside of external factors (natural catastrophe, alien invaders, incredible new invention*, etc) I personally do not see that kind of precipitous drop coming. its already the end of july! it would take a number of really bad things happening all at once for that kind of drop in 6 months.

* - like transporter technology. can you imagine if that kind of star trek technology suddenly became available? then you could live in SF and work in NYC. heck, you could live in manhattan and visit your factory in china before coming back for lunch at the company cafeteria. 8-)

If it becomes obvious by September that there are no Wall Street bonuses this year, a certain class of condos will easily go down 15%. However, I would think a 10% decline over the next 12 months is more realistic. But whatever happens here, it's going to be a good year to buy some Miami vacation places:

http://www.local10.com/news/13721122/detail.html

NYC co-op, condo sales prices rose 8%.

http://www.newyorkbusiness.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070723/FREE/70723004/1059/newsletter01

Winning day on Wall Street
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/23/markets/markets_530/index.htm?postversion=2007072317

I guess today just isn't "THE" day.

Maybe tomorrow.

Or the day after that . . .

#4/29 -- 1980--Democrat in the white house/amazingly high income taxes--not the case these days. And as to your "no Wall Street bonuses this year" pondering. There will be record bonuses this year. Next year is another story.

Someone asked about when there was a recession in an election year, I told them when there was a recession, can't a jew make an observation anymore?

Regarding bonuses, we'll see soon enough.

zizizi, what's your deal?

whoever the OP is seems to be calling some serious shots. the dow fell nearly 200 points today and the headline on money.cnn.com had a terrible headline for the housing sector as part of "breaking" news.

http://money.cnn.com

OP has several different screen names on this board. All of which agrees with him. OP is a HS senior.

The OP is scary. If the stock market goes down again tomorrow and through the week our family plans to remove a bid. I am pretty sure this thread is going to scare alot of people. At least it did for me. I've come on these boards several times before. Never have I seen such an impact and this #35 post is similar to whats being reported on Bloomberg, CNBC, and other financial outlets.

If it really drops 15% we'd loose 1.2 million. Our family cannot afford that.

CNN beats the drum for a slowdown to cater to their fan base, otherwise known as the democrats. We're going into an election year so take all reports with a grain of salt. Look at your own pocket books for the real story. And 200 points here and there is a drop in the bucket for the Dow.

#37 you are a phony -- probably the OP

If you make your decisions based on unverified, unedited message boards, I highly doubt you have $1.5M to "loose"

Another tiresome thread -- the market will be back up and down over the next few days, as it was up yesterday, and down today. No secret insight, no big crash, just normal market movement.

Never have I seen such a blatent and perhaps desparate attempt to prop oneself up by using other aliases OP.

OP still refuses to wager - so that says it all to me.

the dow will drop below 13,700 this week into 13,600. the numbers awful. the economy is in slowdown mode. If anyone disagrees that the momentum of the economy is upbeat and blossoming please explain.

1. dollar at all time low
2. interest rates only going to go up
3. oil in the 70's
4. majority of ARMs have yet to re-adjust
5. financials starting to struggle
6. speak to anyone in real estate and they'll tell you the picture is not rosy
7. homebuilders at 52 week lows.
8. GDP declining

What more do you really need to understand this market can only go south???
You really don't think the dow can fall below 13,000 this year do you??

You are all a bunch of brainwashed fools. go learn from the history books. 15% correction will likely come and so what. My advice is JUST DONT BUY NOW. Only idiots get caught up at the top.

1. low dollar means more foreigners buying into NYC market
2. interest rates have come back down in the last 10 days
3. oil prices have fallen 5 days in a row
4. half of ARMS already have readjusted and we haven't seen a cratering of prices in NYC
5. name one major financial firm that is in trouble (other than the 2 Bear hedge funds)
6. i am in real estae and i can tell youu the picture is not bleak either
7. buying opportunity for the home builders (granted we may see a little more pullback)
8. still the greatest economy in the world

My read is that HimWhoKnows is in the market for an apt. under $1 mil. - a tough and competitive market right now. He knows that many people who are ready to buy are up on this site and is attempting to spread doom and gloom to reduce the # of players on the field.

Here's an article that you might enjoy---NYC is an Island of it's own

July 2007
An island unto itself
A look at why the Manhattan market prospers while the rest of the nation's falters
By Dorn Townsend

New York stands head and shoulders above other metro areas across the country, not only because of its towering skyline.

The city has the highest office rents and hotel rates in the nation.

Residential prices are going up, while the rest of the nation's are heading down.

Manhattan building prices have risen at nearly double the pace of the rest of the United States, and the entire city leads the country in development of multi-unit residential buildings (even if it is third overall in total development).

An in-depth analysis by The Real Deal stacked up Gotham against the biggest cities in the country, looking at a variety of sectors including residential, office, hotel, development and building sales.

The study pinpoints New York's unique position in the national landscape, like hotel rates that are $90 a night higher, on average, than Miami, the second-priciest hotel market in the U.S. Average office rents here are $25 a square foot higher than in Washington, D.C., the second-most expensive office market in the nation.

Of course, New York's residential market exists almost completely outside of national trends, because property prices in the city remain fueled by record profits from the financial services industry. The hyped-up market is exemplified by deals such as late May's $56 million purchase of an apartment at the converted Plaza Hotel, the highest price ever paid for a condo in this country.

Nationwide, the median sales price for a home dropped 5.6 percent in the last year, but it rose 1.2 percent in Manhattan.

The difference could grow even more, according to market analysts.

"The disparity between New York and the rest of the country will expand a year from now," says Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel (see Q & A: NYC soars while U.S. snores). "I am not convinced that the national housing market has hit bottom."

He says credit standards have tightened in the wake of the fallout from the collapse of the subprime lending industry and the subsequent weakness of prime mortgage markets. Miller says this will exaggerate weaknesses in already-hobbled markets.

As for New York, Miller says he "would expect a fairly high level of sales to continue and a fairly accelerated pace of price appreciation six months from now."

The median price for an apartment in Manhattan in the first quarter was $835,000, nearly four times the national median home price of $214,000, according to data from Miller Samuel and the National Association of Realtors.

If that seems unexceptional, consider the increase in the number of apartment sales from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007.

In Manhattan, the total shot up by 73.3 percent, to 3,474 sales.

Nationally, the amount of existing home sales during the same period dropped 22.3 percent, to 863,000 sales.

"New York City has become a mecca of prosperity and is unique to itself. You can't look at Manhattan as indicative of the general market anymore," says broker Neil Binder, principal and co-founder of Bellmarc, though he sounded caution on the city's reliance on finance. "If the stock market declines precipitously, the high-end market will as well."

Of course, the boom isn't being felt evenly throughout the region, or even within the city. The number of foreclosures is growing in some parts of New York, particularly in the outer boroughs. The suburban housing market remains sluggish. Further, big-ticket deals are what have been driving the average and median sales prices up. That is, high-end purchases of condos and co-ops have obscured what may be emerging weaknesses in the middle of the market (see Residential market weak in the middle).

Still, the imbalance between New York City and the rest of the country is causing real estate analysts to ponder two questions: Why the continued affluence? And how long can it last?

No one reason suffices. Accelerating incomes, interest rates that are still relatively low, slowness in the supply of new apartment buildings and land-use restrictions are part of the story. Some of the city's keenest real estate minds see the financial fate of the city as increasingly remote from goings-on in the hinterlands.

"In this globalized age, it makes more sense to compare the New York market to the markets in London or Shanghai than to cities like St. Louis and Tampa," said Frederick Peters, president of Warburg Realty Partnership.

Peters' position echoes the "Superstar City" theory, a notion put forward by economists at Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania. The theory contends that wealthier Americans are increasingly concentrating in several cities where declining supplies of land are leading to an uptick in property values.

According to this view, several U.S. cities are becoming luxury hot spots: Property values in places such as New York, Seattle and San Francisco will continue to appreciate because there are no close substitute cities, thus keeping the supply inelastic and leading to concentrations of wealthy people.

The Superstar City theory has dissenters who predict the real estate boom New York City is experiencing will run its course. Like past New York City real estate bubbles, the situation could be swiftly and dramatically reversed by unforeseeable geo-political or economic ruptures.

"New York City can't keep appreciating relative to the rest of the country. This requires that people continue finding it imperative to live in Manhattan," says Robert Schiller, an economist at Yale University and author of "Irrational Exuberance," a book that famously foresaw the implosion of the dot-com bubble. He's taken a similarly skeptical view on housing but, even so, says the city is still a bit exceptional.

"Real estate could come down substantially, but even if it does, New York City will still be expensive."

Q & A: NYC soars while U.S. snores

Spending the night: NYC vs. U.S. hotel market

Manhattan leads nation's office growth

If interest rates are cut once again (which is highly unlikely) the U.S. dollar will drop past 1.50. This would have a horrible effect on inflation (general costs from oil-trade oil in petro-dollars, groceries, general supplies, etc). Secondly, if Manhattan is all owned by Asians and Persians (well on it's way) will it still have the European draw? Look at the 1 month chart of all the financials. Alot of them are down 5-10% in just weeks.
Buying opportunity for homebuilders? Thats a good laugh, most real estate experts say inventory is so great that prices are being slashed and buildings across the country are half empty. We are still the greatest economy in the world, however it is important to note that we have a huge deficit and our current standard of living is generated by loans from Asian economies. Once these asian economies have set up a strong internal structure and the U.S. is broke, watch how quickly they will turn their backs. May not be today, tomorrow, or next year, but somewhere down the next 10 years or so. Compare the dramatic growth of Asia and parts in Europe the last 5 years with the U.S. and you'll be shocked.

Again, if you're so smart, why don't you accept my bet?

Put your money where your mouth is.

The only thing that shocks us is that you blather on all day, but won't commit to your beliefs.

....okay, okay,.... why don't you guys pretend bet.

So what measurement would you use to resolve your bet? The Miller Samuel/Elliman reports? Are you talking contract price or closings? A market price drop by the end of the year won't be noticed until a couple months into 2008 due to the time lag for closings and recordings. You can't offer or accept a bet if you can't agree on the way you will measure the outcome.

#46--Him who knows nothing--so what is it? Today, or is it 5 years/10 years from now. You sound like a first year finance student. And since when is Manhattan owned by Persians? Asians, Brits, yes...but Persians??? I'd guess that Russians own more of this town than them.

Today:

GS -4.02%
BSC -4.05%
LEH -4.79%
MER -4.35%
MS -3.58%

Over past 5 days:

GS -7.89%
BSC -7.3%
LEH -6.11%
MER -6.45%
MS -5.97%

Mortgage based securities:

BBB rated 50
A rated 74
AA rated 94
AAA rated 97

A week ago:

BBB rated 57
A rated 82
AA rated 97
AAA rated 97

Hmmm, HimWhoKnows predicted the drop in the DOW. So why dont you tell us a littel about yourself. Also are you zizizi?

the OP HimWhoKnows is really mysterious. If he would step out with his name I would like to offer him lunch.

I honestly am starting to give the guy some credit. The dow was near 14,000 when he said this and it's now at 13,500. Also he has been right on with Oil and the financials. If the markets truly are in the hands "of a few individuals" could the OP have more insight please?

Even if he's dead wrong with real estate, the OP is dead on with the financial markets.

Because just maybe maybe I am HimWhoKnows

HimWhoKnows - you should bet pseudonym. Because you are using alias to post and you can't keep track of who you are.

#52--They're referred to as mortgage BACKED securities. Even someone with a tangential knowledge of capital markets knows that. We hope you are having fun, moron.

#54-- Now we know you're a pimple faced school kid. Run along.

There is no generic Mortgage backed security. There are a few different types-Agency, HEL, Alt-A, Sub-prime etc etc.

#53 - no, I only use this nickname and no others. I did put some of my money on this bet a while ago (and it was a painful ride shorting IYR and RWX and seeing someone who bought my place 2 years ago put it on the market for 50% more), but it's finally paying off.

Some more for you:

The Commerce Department reported that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 6.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 834,000 units. The decline was more than triple what had been expected and was the largest percentage drop since sales fell by 12.7 percent in January. Sales are now 22.3 percent below the level of a year ago.

HAHAH See #54 and #55.
You just got caught red handed posting under many aliases. OOPS. Credibility officially zero.

That's because #54 who is the OP forgot to press a different screen name before he posted that message. Once again the OP who uses several different screen names on this board, all who agree with him is either a kid or a very immature man. Very sad if you think about it.

Hahahaaah DOW down over 450 points at 2:40pm... LOL!!!!! down down down she goes, bye bye big bonuses.

#63 or shall I call you OP. I'm not blind to the news about foreclosures, subprimes, stock market, etc. Where we disagree is that the Manhattan (repeat Manhattan) real estate will not be affected with the numbers you are talking about. Take the Bet.

#58--Not to mention CMBS--this OP is a troll. Dow's down 375 last time I checked and thats largely b/c of Exxon falling short.

However--I do disagree with this 'Manhattan is immune' nonsense. Purchasers in NYC are not all foreigners and even if they were, significant downticks in the US markets will affect NYC mortgagors eventually--particularly when they all try to sell at once, not necessarily in a foreclosure spike. And then, when the dust settles, the market will rise again and bloggers like this creep will get their jollies in a similar fashion.

young man, kid, whatever the OP. I find him an arrogant prick. It's really an ass**** thing to come on these boards and post "official downfall". I just bought a condo and to the OP i better see a 10% increase in value as my broker told me a year from now. I plan to flip within 2 years for a nice big profit. So OP, F-off.

The DOW will go back up to 15,000!

July 26 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark for U.S. stock volatility surged to the highest in 13 months on concern that bond market turmoil triggered by the subprime loan crisis will lead to bigger share-price swings.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index jumped as much as 29 percent to 23.36, the highest since June 2006. Higher readings in the so-called VIX, derived from prices paid for options on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, indicate traders expect more volatility in the next 30 days.

``When it shoots up that means there's a great deal of uncertainty,'' said Michael Koskuba, who helps manage $59 billion at Victory Capital Management in New York. The S&P 500's 2.3 percent slide today, the most since February, is a ``pretty good jab to the ribs.''

I am going to be a major buyer of the S and P. I believe we have a major over correction and we will probably see the stock market make new highs by the end of the year.Forcasting Dow to be over 15,000 by years end.

Stocks closed sharply lower, and the Dow saw its biggest decline since the market meltdown in late February, as disappointing news from the housing industry renewed concerns about credit markets and the U.S. economy.

"Nobody knows whose credit is worth what," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS. "Watch what happens here--if this rally rolls over and we head back to the lows, we're in trouble."

-CNBC

And through all this, I'm still waiting, waiting, waiting for HimWhoKnows to simply accept what should be a risk free bet for him/her....so allow me to repeat....

I'll tell you what - since you realize that you opened you mouth before you engaged your brain, I'll make you an even MORE enticing bet. You keep predicting a 15% drop. Why don't we say this - if Manhattan real estate drops by 10% (not 15%) OR MORE between today and 31 December 2007, you win, I lose. $1,000 will be the amount, so you don't feel like you're losing your entire net worth. What do you say to say that?

Surely, if you're calling a 15% drop, 10% should be super easy for you to commit to, right?

We'll use the Miller Samuel/Elliman reports (unless you wish to use another).

We can do it based on contract price or closings (I'll let you decide).

We'll let streeteasy.com hold the money and post the results.

Between right now and 31 December 2007, I'm betting that Manhattan residential real estate will drop LESS than 10%. That's the bet. $1,000.

In or out, HimWhoKnows?

fruit

Don't think streeteasy.com can hold the money or get involved in this at all - can be construed as illegal gambling. Just do it through your paypal accounts - and you two post the results. THAT IS IF HE TAKES THE WAGER!!! He's had a stroke of luck with the market plunge but I still don't buy his prediction - I am beginning to think he doesn't either!

c'mon guys..this guy isn't lucky. the economic numbers that came out this week are downright horrible. give him a break if he's a kid, calling drops like this in advance is what executives at Goldman get millions for.

I don't see why the OP is getting props over his obvious "stock market" call. And technically he recommended Google before they missed earnings and dropped 10%. Proclaiming that the market will fall after big bellweathers miss earnings is rather obvious no?

#74 i'm trying to screen the OP for a google quote. i found:

"Think twice! G'luck to all of you that believe Manhattan real estate will continue to sky rocket up 5-10% a year infinetly. Google shares have a much better chance! "

in the same post he acknowledges

4. Stock market drops 5-10%
*not only did Google miss, Caterpillar, yahoo, and everything outside

This post was 3 days ago, that is long after Google earnings. Google is flat since the OP suggested.

What is flattering to me is the market is down 3-4% since the OP came to this board. I'm not taking a side of the OP or those who say is wrong.

I simply am saying that to come on a board and post this kind of thing and then see it happen is striking. I own Manhattan real estate and care less if it goes up or down. To me it's just very surprising and somewhat chilling to see the a warning and that warning take action a day after the post.

What is shocking is also the amount of negative press that has come out from all major media outlets after the OP put this post up.

It takes alot of guts to create a thread when the market is at an all time high and call the top. That is what people in hedge funds and portfolio management make 7 sometimes 8 digits to do. If this guy is a 16 year old kid, not bad.

this is good! Market drops tomorrow and i'm drinking beer instead of vodka this weekend.

If he's so smart then he should ante up his money where his mouth is.

That's what big boys/girls do. They actually put their own $ on the line.

Manhattan RE market going down over next 12/18 months. There is going to be some serious pain with the all the financial firms, even to the point where layoffs are possibility at the end of the year. Since this entire RE market is being inflated and propped up by Wall St., how can anyone deny that Manhattan RE is in trouble in the short/med term?

75, are you OP under yet another name? Probably since you tracked that post so closely.

I repeat, so he called a stock market drop after big boys GOOG, CAT and YHOO missed earnings. Is is rocket science that the market will go down after such a big run and with missed earnings?

How about we focus on his RE prediction?

#73 - while Goldman Execuitves might get millions for calling such drops the OP will not even wager $1000 to give his predictions some credibility. Not in the same league.

Firstly, I am not OP. Secondly, read this - http://accruedint.blogspot.com/. You guys are in denial if you think everything is just normal. There is a serious crisis of confidence that has been building up over the last 4-6 weeks. There may be some serious bloodletting in the streets over the next month, and then watch those bonuses dry up.

You know it was only several weeks ago when the 10 year note went above 5 and everyone on the board was predicting the interest rates were going to 7 and the NYC market was going to take a dive. Then only a few weeks ago the Dow makes an all time high and everyone was stating the blistering economy was going to cause inflation and the NYC RE was going down. Now the Dow drops off it's recent all time high and everyone is predicting that wall street is going to have lay offs and the NYC RE market is going to drop. It's hip shooting predictions on day to day fluctuations in the market at it's finest. History has shown that over the long term the Dow and real estate have proven to be a good investment. All these ups and down blips are just noise.

we will have a global recession, but the greatest impact will be felt in the U.S. and several emerging markets.

watch us move to 13,300 over the next 2-4 trading sessions.
Cheers,
?

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/businessinsurance/10370534.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

we have already lost over 15% on our condo in miami, the same happens in NY and my wife will divorce me.

Let's keep in mind we are only 4% off the Dow's all time high. This is very good for the market and I believe we will be well over 15,000 by years end.

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that the Dow hits an all time high in September.

The stock market is tanking. Could the housing market be far behind?

market not looking good. the OP, HimWhoKnows should be investigated as it is not normal to put this sort of thread up and then have it actually happen. Is this considered insider?

wooooooowwww. Amazing call on the market by HimWhoKnows. I have to ask how much money did you make this week?????????????

i think today starts the next hot market in manhattan. interest rates going down. buy buy buy. i love this city. who wants to go to happy hour tonight?

1 of 2 things. the individual

A. Extremely Lucky with his call

or

B. Extremely well connected with on an executive level with the financial markets.

he posted 13,300 yesterday.

or

C. Is half the names on this topic

and

D. Also started another one that says the exact opposite.

thats true, him who knows really forsaw a crash is his crystal ball!

Yes although I called it I have to admit I was lucky. I posted about 50 other times on different boards and was right about 15% the times. It's all a numbers game and I finally got it right. I do like posting on this board with about 20 different screen names and each of my screen names congratulates me on my call. I'm a loser but that's Okay I have to live with myself. Nothing I can do about that.At least I admit I'm a loser that's half the battle.

i think that this tab has gotten a little out of control HimWhoKnows, the OP, obviously did come on here and make statement.

Instead of bashing, why don't we come in here and maybe take what he said as a warning? I'm in the financial services sector and I think that the OP made several worthy points.

I also believe that Manhattan real estate will likely drop 1% for each time the Dow drops 1%.
For Manhattan to experience a 15% drop we would have to close out the yeat at 11,900.

That would be 15% drop for the DOW. Is it realistic? Doubtful, is it possible? Surely?

I would like HimWhoKnows to tell us what expects the DOW to finish at? Maybe just maybe I will buy an option on that strike.

HimWhoKnows speak up!

I love NY and would really like to purchase a condo in Manhattan, but let's face it, the condo market has had an amazing run and this may not continue. Folks in the city do not realize just how badly normal Americans are hurting in other locations. This will have an effect on the overall US economy and it is not just bonuses that are in question, but a whole lot of actual Wall Street jobs. It seems strange that people can accept NY property prices rising 300% but find it outlandish that a 25% pullback could occure. Dow 10.4 Dec 31 2007. Good luck to all, D

PS The guy who has lost 15% on the Miami condo is in for another 20-40% leg down....I live in the MIA and it is getting FUGLY.

#96 - given the content of post #95, wherein the OP admits that he is playing a game - why would you have any further interest in his predictions or even consider making an investment based on his advise???

The permeating effects of the housing market's admittedly severe downturn has finally arrived in Manhattan. Interestingly, it affects the Manhattan real estate market through Wall Street, which has been a great source of liquidity for the local market.

The recent stock market pullback is based on damage done by subprime issues spreading to the general credit/debt markets. However, all charts indicate that maturing ARM resets to both sub-prime and prime (yes, they are also at risk since many bought 'too much house' relative to their incomes) borrowers have not yet peaked- the rate will increase.

Foreign buyers have already begun to see their exchange rate driven discounting vaporizing into thin air as the USD continues to strengthen as Fund and Portfolio Managers unwind their Carry Trade positions.

So, the Demand is expected to shrink in Manhattan due to the following reasons:

- lower bonuses this year (especially in the LBO space and many Hedge Fund strategies)
- strengthening USD removing exchange rate derived discounting for foreigners

General credit tightness will also have effects in Manhattan and the rest of the nation as well.

"strengthening USD removing exchange rate derived discounting for foreigners"

isnt the USD close to an all time low against the Euro?

"isnt the USD close to an all time low against the Euro?"

it WAS at an all time low- in the past week, it has risen the most against the Euro since the beginning of this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=axAHM8cBBceE&refer=currency

this is not surprising as investors become more risk averse and search for liquidity protection. instead, what is surprising is the velocity of this unraveling. for example, you were under the impression that the dollar was still at an all time low. my quickly things change when credit and liquidity dries up- this is classic behavior in the credit cycle. The urge for everyone to attempt to exit at the same time is pronounced in a credit market downturn.