Paulson: Housing Prices to Rise this yr & next

> i know, i know NYC IS different

Not that different... just two years behind. Bulls have been ignoring that fact (at their peril) for quite some time.

My best guess is not that NYC prices will fall by a third, but rather that they'll stagnate for about a decade. I think I've been pretty consistent about stating that. Also, I am more bullish on, say, Phoenix.

nyc did fall....20 to 30%.......but yes...it could fall more OR not....depends on all these bailout fallouts..

Just to give you a sense of what the markets think, here's Las Vegas vs. New York:

LAV LAS VEGAS HOUSING FUTURES
MAY10 105.00
AUG10 109.00
NOV10 112.00
FEB11 112.00
MAY11 114.00
AUG11 114.00
NOV11 120.00
MAY12 116.00
NOV12 116.00
NOV13 127.00
NOV14 127.00

NYM NEW YORK HOUSING FUTURES
MAY10 168.40
AUG10 174.00
NOV10 173.60
FEB11 162.00
MAY11 156.00
AUG11 154.00
NOV11 155.40
MAY12 154.00
NOV12 168.20
NOV13 163.00
NOV14 163.00

"The Homebuilders ETF [XHB 18.19 1.09 (+6.37%)] soared on Monday after famed investor John Paulson said he sees a sharp V-shaped recovery in the economy. He also predicted housing prices would rise as much as 5% in 2010 and as much as 12% in 2011."

HAHAHAHAHA!

He just announced he was going long last week, now how's about selling them suckers off?

12% a year?

PLEASE.

inonada: why, say, Phoenix?

Price-to-rent ratios are in the 10-15x range, prices are at the 1991-1992 trough (or even 10% below for the bottom end of the market), etc.

If you do the legwork, I'll provide the capital.

Mind you that compared to the 1991-1992 trough, the cost of capital is now about 2% lower as well.

Money magazine noted the rent-buy ratio for the US is 10.7. That even beats steve's made up 12 ratio.

Either way, according to Steve's logic, that spells UP!

Do you have any familiarity with the Phoenix market, neighborhoods, trends?

"Money magazine noted the rent-buy ratio for the US is 10.7"

Show us that link, and even if it were it wouldn't account for a 12% per year increase.

Except in your mind!

"Do you have any familiarity with the Phoenix market, neighborhoods, trends?"

Absolutely not. You?

"Home Values Continue To Fall, More Owners 'Underwater'"

"Home prices nationally fell 3.8 percent in the first quarter from a year ago and 1 percent from the previous quarter, according to a new report from Zillow.com. That marks the 13th consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines. "

"Twenty-three point three percent of all single family homes with mortgages are now "underwater", up from 21.4 percent in the fourth quarter. Negative equity has been linked to a higher number of borrowers voluntarily defaulting on their loans, even when they have the ability to pay. That could be pushing now record foreclosures even higher in the short term. "

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37020439

This sounds confident: "Paulson also urged people to buy houses in the U.S....."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-debt-crisis-manageable-paulson-says-2010-05-10-144600?dist=countdown

Some. We'll talk at the mixer on Wednesday.

"Paulson also urged people to buy houses in the U.S....."

... and then trade a few of them in for a hotel.

I'll have Atlantic Avenue - had some relatives living in them parts, round about 1890.

What's the price-to-rent ratio in Manhattan, somewhereelse?

"Some. We'll talk at the mixer on Wednesday."

Alright. I've got something else that night, but hopefully will be there a little later.

Wait, there's a mixer? Another SE meetup? How did I miss that?

evnyc: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/18956-may-2010-se-mixer?page=2

> What's the price-to-rent ratio in Manhattan, somewhereelse?

They only did NYC as a metro area...