Odds of another Oct 87 style crash?

I'd say better odds of a 1973 style crash, deflation, then stagflation, but I was a mere child at the time.
"California, Drop Dead" is an unlikely headline
we have a lot of bad credit to clean up

I would actually put it at better than 50/50. All it's going to take is one more euro country besides Greece defaulting. Mkts will tank on Greece but so many people expect it that I'm not sure the makts will sell off more than 5%. If another country goes then I think odds are pretty good we'll see Oct 87 bc credit crisis fears will be back.

More likely than not. We haven't cleaned up our economic messes and we haven't learned from them either!

By Bloomberg News
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- British hedge fund manager Hugh
Hendry is betting China’s “credit bubble” will burst, causing
its economy to contract and triggering a global crisis.

Honestly, it's a great question and there has to be another crash, because we have not yet dealt with all the debt that got us into the first mess.

We haven't even tried to deal with it! Arrgh.

Keep some gold coins stashed around the house, keep renting, and wait. It won't take long now.....we're at "peak oil" already, glaciers are melting, droughts are more frequent, the oceans are fished out...we're headed toward big food and water shortages soon.

We've already got "toxic" food coming at us every few months...spinach, romaine lettuce, peanut butter, hamburger, the list of contaminated food to hit the markets over the past two years has been mind-boggling.

Every system, whether human-made or natural, is in a colossal mess. The center cannot hold....

their brilliance together was only succeeded by their greed

the chatter is that something nasty is comin down the pike

Hendry posted a video over a year ago saying the same thing and showing some of the Potemkim Villages in Shanghai. Worth watching.

Wasn't the crash last year worse than '87?

The '08 crash was worse than '87 for stocks but nowhere near as bad for NY-area real estate. On the other hand, after the '87 crash the NY real estate market didn't hit bottom until 1995, and didn't start creeping up again until 1997.

08 felt much worse from a fixed income/credit perspective. From the feel of things we could be in for a double dip here.

`Major Crash' Likely If Stocks Break May 7 Lows, Dow Watcher Says
By Elizabeth Stanton

May 18 (Bloomberg) --
Investors should sell U.S. stocks because the market is at risk of a “major crash,” Richard Russell, editor of the Dow Theory Letters newsletter, said in a note to subscribers today.

The decline would follow should the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average fall below their May 7 levels, he said. They have risen 1.3 percent and 2.8 percent versus their closing levels that day.

“If I read the stock market correctly, it’s telling me that there is a surprise ahead,” Russell wrote. “And that surprise will be a reversal to the downside for the economy, plus a collection of other troubles ahead.”

Certainly not a good time to be fully invested or on margin. So what's better stocks or real estate?

wheres ericho the master technician?

r u kidding me... stks vs. re?

THEY ARE ONE IN THE SAME. Where is it written that RE and Stk mkt have a negative correlation? seriously, CC was right... you are whack.

In the short term, guess where NYC and STK MKT goes when interest rates spike to 10%? THEY BOTH TAKE IT IN THE JIMMY. GUESS WHAT DOESN'T? yeah my $1MM in my 4 FDIC savings acct... dufus

"Certainly not a good time to be fully invested or on margin. So what's better stocks or real estate?"

Well, given the dilemma with margin, that kills most folks real estate "investments".

"The '08 crash was worse than '87 for stocks but nowhere near as bad for NY-area real estate."

so far.

"On the other hand, after the '87 crash the NY real estate market didn't hit bottom until 1995, and didn't start creeping up again until 1997. "

and who is certain we've bottomed in this one?

as to OP, the more people are yelling about a 'crash' the less likely it'll happen... that said - have to agree with w67: inflation/deflation will impact RE and stocks similarly. one thing though - are you sure fdic will hold up?

FDIC cannot run out of money. They can borrow from the U.S. Treasury

yes they can. subsequently they may (and most probably will) be bailed out

A 1991 law generally caps the amount of money the FDIC can borrow from the Treasury at $30 billion, and the FDIC hasn't borrowed money from the Treasury in more than a decade.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123630125365247061.html

I find gold too flashy and it doesn't go well with my skin tone

24k yellow gold, baby.

w67th's comment reminded me of this (AH, note the sidecar reference):

http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2010/04/what-glitters-issweet.html
But what is Jim Rogers thinking will happen when and if law and order breaks down? Does he expect to cross the border (on his motorcycle?) to the (recently nationalized) Swiss depository holding his metal, and expect it just to be handed over to him? "How would you like it, Monsieur - in the big shiny bars or the shiny petite pieces??" Will he put it in his sidecar? How will he get it home - to Singapore? He would presumably need a small and loyal army, which if well-organized might, themselves, think twice about prevailing errr ummm distribution of wealth. I say this somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but I am sure readers can conjure others.

hi 10023, from the same article, for you:

"Viewed from this point, gold is a trade, for ruminating upon my Bosnian acquaintance's anecdote, there is a point - call it the "Oh Fuck moment" beyond which Gold is quite sub-optimal, and sugar, petrol, some vegetable seeds, a goat or two, an alembic, all make seeming better sense. Or, perhaps in the extreme, the best hedge in the event (if you believe in the event) of a breakdown in the rule of law, is to BE the baddest thug, and/or join/align yourself with the meanest thugs around, a paradoxical feedback loop that leads one down a disturbing rathole indeed."

people who think they will need their physical gold will be sorely disappointed when people with lead show up.

only if you invest in GLD

AR: you know my deal about loading up on antibiotics, water and surround myself with like-minded and trustworthy individuals. You can't eat gold. S'pore relies on its non-so-friendly neighbors for fresh H20. Jim Rogers will stick out like the old, white guy in the sea of Asians that he is.

Yellow gold, 24K, would go well on W67 flesh. Especially tanned W67 flesh.

i just can't see it. maybe on his unicorn.

Shouldn't the FDIC insurance be permanent at 250K?
It's ludicrous that it is temporary. It should go up each year with the rate of inflation.

They should lower FDIC insurance. The insurance just incentivizes the banks to act wrecklessly. The banks will always outsmart the regulators who are either nto fully aware of what's going on or under pressure to make credit more available. Just look at the regulators who missed Lehman,Citi & AIG. And the FDIC is the most professional and best of the regulators and look at their exposure. Increasing FDIC insurance just makes the problem worse for tax-payers later.

"wrecklessly". If only.

agreed...

"They should lower FDIC insurance. The insurance just incentivizes the banks to act wrecklessly. "

the same effect would be achieved by letting people have insurance only on 1 savings account. so that people with way much more than $250k cannot game the system fractionating them on different institutions. if you play it right, you can actually get $1million of protection in each back with the current rules.