Close to normal 10% correction. Ready to buy.

"The reports that hedge funds get on sales numbers for instance for given companies would blow your mind.... the amount of data the public doesn't get on google stats is incredible"

Well, WFC puts out hundreds of pages of financial disclosure every 90 days. KO's financials are pretty straightforward (in comparison). But, in either case, I think there is enough out there to make a fully-informed decision on whether to invest in either company. For companies that I could never understand (GS) or predict their future competitive position/prospects (GOOG), I just don't bother to research.

"Looking at the list, that doesn't sound right at all. You can check it statistically online."

Do you have a link? I will check what it is.

Looking for the link again. Phil Demuth's book/site is where I got it from first... quanttext is what came to mind, but they're charging now. Will look again.

Everyone should be doing it, folks make assumptions about their own portfolios and don't always get them right. The usual problem is folks not realizing they're buying correlated stocks.

"But, in either case, I think there is enough out there to make a fully-informed decision on whether to invest in either company."

Its not how much is out there... its the difference of how much you know vs. what the guy you are trading with knows.

Point is, hedge funds pay millions and millions for this stuff, for good reason.

"Its not how much is out there... its the difference of how much you know vs. what the guy you are trading with knows"

Well, somebody out there sold me a bunch of shares of WFC under $14 last year. I don't know who it was, but all I can say is thank you. You never know why people are selling - could be a hedge fund is selling against it's will to meet redemption requests - they may have more info than me, but they have to sell a particular holding even if they would rather be buying more shares of it. Could be some "macro" guy just decides to dump all his holdings due to the Greek crisis - and I say thank you, I'll take your STD under $10 [but somebody else can buy your other junk].

...not to mention, there is a difference btwn having access to information and actually reading and comprehending it. I could have access to all the info in the world, but if I misinterpret the data I have [or am too lazy to absorb it], I will still make a bad decision. That's why lots of hedge fund and mutual fund managers fail - b/c they are simply bad at their job. Not everybody is as smart and/or as hard working as Einhorn and Ackman (thankfully).

>>nice rally....typical May selloff after big gains.

Not bad at all.

"That's why lots of hedge fund and mutual fund managers fail - b/c they are simply bad at their job. Not everybody is as smart and/or as hard working as Einhorn and Ackman (thankfully)."

Agreed... but dumb people with insider info make tons. If the info they have is legal and even a few days ahead of yours, they're still very dangerous.

Awesome if you can beat the odds, more power to you, but you should be sure you really are.

"Agreed... but dumb people with insider info make tons. If the info they have is legal and even a few days ahead of yours, they're still very dangerous."

My take is that if you put 25% of your net worth of KO in 2009 and don't plan on selling any until 2039, you probably don't have to worry about what insiders or hedge funds are doing with the stock 3 days before or after you buy it (or 3 days before or after you eventually sell it). If you plan to buy and sell often, then it would be a concern. Most of what I own I plan to hold for years, if not decades - otherwise I wouldn't buy it at all.

"you probably don't have to worry about what insiders or hedge funds are doing with the stock 3 days before or after you buy it (or 3 days before or after you eventually sell it)."

If you overpay for a stock, it doesn't matter how long you hold, who buys before, after you...

If you are basing value off partial information that leads you wrong, the trading frequency really doesn't matter (outside of frequent trading opening up more chances for mistakes).

Moving a Lehman trade up or down a few days wouldn't have mattered... having the info would have.

"Moving a Lehman trade up or down a few days wouldn't have mattered... having the info would have"

That's why I don't buy anything unless I have all the info I need to make a fully informed decision. If I don't (or can't understand what's available), then I don't buy. But whether I pay $48 versus $47.50 for KO in 2009 matters virtually not at all if I won't sell until 2039 - but it would matter a hell of a lot if I bought and sold it 100 different times during that period and each time I paid 50 cents more than I should have and sold for 50 cents less than I should have.

"That's why I don't buy anything unless I have all the info I need to make a fully informed decision"

Where we're disagreeing is on "fully informed", I don't think folks looking at the public reports are. I think we can agree to disagree.

"But whether I pay $48 versus $47.50 for KO in 2009 matters virtually not at all if I won't sell until 2039 "

Agreed. But its not 50c differences I'm talking about.

"I think we can agree to disagree."

Fair enough. GLTY.

remember, we have to compare notes in 7 years.

;-)

OK - talk to you in May 2017 - hopefully we are both rich and retired by then:)

Today...

S&P up 3.3%
SSO up 6.8%
Me up 4.3%

YTD...

S&P down 1.1%
SSO down 4.4%
Me even (actually up 1/1582th...but who counting)

Relax fellas, market isn't going to collapse like alot of these knuckleheads here suggest.

Dry Baltic Index at new highs.
Junk bond yields barely budge.
LIBOR spreads no where near danger stages.

I'm up nicely this year. Unfortunately, I try to market time....
since bottom... S&P up 60%. SSO up 130%+

we'll compare in 7 years..

;-)

On a more micro but extremely relevant level, corporations are willing to make acquisitions in the $20-$100 range, meaning good opportunities for entrepreneurs. I'm also seeing much more hiring by businesses in the similar revenue range of senior executives who they expect to drive strategic direction. Generally I believe this reflects strong optimism to continue business and compete. It doesn't mean we are back to the silly days, so perhaps we are actually somewhere within the ideal range of the economy.

Interesting thread. BSex, swe has been trying to tell you something in a very nice way for the past 100 posts. I would listen to him.

"BSex, swe has been trying to tell you something in a very nice way for the past 100 posts. I would listen to him."

LOL. I was up 50% last year (for the entire year, not just from the bottom) - S&P was up 23%. I am up over 1% this year so far, while the S&P is down 1%. I think I'm doing OK - not spectacular, but good enough.

Now down 2.1% on year, S&P down 4.8% (or about 3.5% after dividends).

> LOL. I was up 50% last year (for the entire year, not just from the bottom) - S&P was up 23%.

and I was up more.

Does that mean my posts are any more or less valid? What about your posts?

"and I was up more. Does that mean my posts are any more or less valid? What about your posts?"

That's excellent, I am happy for you - no doubt you are beating me again this year (and will beat me next year and the year after). No, it has nothing to do with the validity of your posts or mine - it means that I am exceeding my personnel investing goals, so I see no reason to change my strategy, that's all.

"personal"

And back to the original point, you are only exceeding your goal if your return beats the proper benchmark over the long term.

All your looking every 3 days runs counter to that.

As we said, 7 years. In shorter time frames, a dot com putz will look pretty smart, too.

S&P is proper benchmark for me IMO - I beat that by 27% last year [or by about 24% if you include S&P dividends] and am beating it this year [after dividends are counted] - that's what Buffett uses and if it's good enough for him...

Now down 1.05% on year:)

As for the 7 year thing, I think 5 years is sufficient to determine success or failure of a strategy - so by 2013 I will know. 10 years obviously BETTER than 5 (and 20 years even BETTER than 10, etc etc), however 5 years is a good measurement.

what a waste that you two arent runnig 2/20 money

with returns like you profess you could be the next soros'

"what a waste that you two arent runnig 2/20 money"

Good one. Actually it sounds like somewhereelse actually is running a hedge fund - or has friends who do. I just invest my own money b/c I enjoy it and I (obviously delusionally) believe I can outperform the S&P for the foreseeable future. In 2008 I lost approximately 1 year's salary in the market (down 30%) - so if I had been running other people's money, I likely would have been fired.

Nonsense! The market (S&P) was down 37% - so you would have been a hero!

So...2008 - down 28.5% (-160K)
2009 - up 50.4% (+205K)
2010 - down 1% (-9K)
Overall since 12/31/07 - up 36K

I locked in my 50% profit since Jan. 1 yesterday. Felt nice. 90% cash right now with some limit orders in - watching the charts for the next few days.

How's your portfolio doing, SWE?

Steve, you're right, that's definitely not trading.

It's not "day trading," nor is it buy-and-hold. My average holding period this time was 3 months. Criticize me if you like, call me a fool, but 50% in 5 months ain't too bad.

I didn't call you anything Steve. It's really just covert baiting of your buddy here who derives unreal amounts of pleasure excoriating and perversely obsessing over your investment history. But you are racking up a fair amount of short-term cap gains tax, as well as transaction fees, which are the great profit killers.

> S&P is proper benchmark for me IMO

Which I think might be part of the mistake.

> that's what Buffett uses and if it's good enough for him...

You are confused if you think this is a "good enough" issue. Its not.
Its the question of appropriate.

If you had a portfolio of bonds, the S&P would not be the benchmark... and Buffett would be the first to tell you that.

If you have a private equity fund and used the S&P as benchmark, you'd be dishonest.
Or a hedge fund (even without leverage)

You have to compare apples to apples.

> I think 5 years is sufficient to determine success or failure of a strategy - so by 2013 I will know

Certainly not in the dotcom era, certainly not in the last 5. Bubbles can easily last that long. I think you need at least a few cycles.

There are no transaction fees because Fidelity doesn't charge me any for a year. Regarding capital gains, I still have losses to recover from the crash so there aren't any for the time being, but even if there were I wouldn't ever let the tax tail wag the dog. That's how I wound up moving to FL once and hating it - just because they don't have an income tax.

They can ridicule me all they like - except for the crash, the depth of which I didn't estimate b/c I'd never seen anything like it before (and neither had just about anybody else alive), my investments have paid off handsomely over the years. And even during the crash I was in 2x short funds, but if you look at the history they didn't work as advertised, and their structure has been changed. I no longer invest in mutual funds as they are not liquid enough - only stocks and ETF's. Were I ever again to invest in a mutual fund it would be a long/short fund, but I seem to be better at it than most fund managers.

> How's your portfolio doing, SWE?

I think I'm still up about 100% on your actual portfolio Steve, thanks for asking.

But, yes, I get that your imaginary one is up 10,000%... the one where you get to change your bets a year after you made them, like China.

I still love that one!

"They can ridicule me all they like - except for the crash, the depth of which I didn't estimate b/c I'd never seen anything like it before (and neither had just about anybody else alive), my investments have paid off handsomely over the years"

Yes, especially the trades didn't make but pretended he did a year later!

Those were SUPER profitable!

See, Steve, it totally worked! Only took a couple minutes! Seriously though, the tax issue is a significant one, and can be fairly easily avoided, especially with highly similar ETFs, where you can actually take advantage of losses. Otherwise though, frequent trading ultimately hurts you more than it helps.

"If you had a portfolio of bonds, the S&P would not be the benchmark"

I don't - I have a portfolio of stocks, all of which are publicly traded - no bonds. Thus, S&P is the appropriate bench for me. I don't know why you keep arguing with me about this.

"benchmark". Also, I use zero leverage. S&P is obviously an accurate benchmark.

bjw, I love how you think its your humping my leg I care about.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the post I responded two was Steve calling me out by name an hour ago... way before you started humping my leg yet again!

But, of course, we know you'll respond to ANYONE calling MY name.

I love it!

come, on, say something else about me, bjw! quick!

"I think you need at least a few cycles."

A few? So maybe in 25 years I'll know? LOL - you just seem to argue for argument's sake, bro. No offense, but I will have to put you on ignore.

"I locked in my 50% profit since Jan. 1 yesterday. Felt nice."

LMAO - you are a genius, dude. Up 50% when the market is down 5% - seriously, who do you think will believe that? Why post BS when you know it's not true? What's the point?

> A few? So maybe in 25 years I'll know?

We've already been through this... 7-10 years.

> you just seem to argue for argument's sake, bro.
And you?

Note that you are the one, after we agreed to disagree, who keeps bringing it up again.

...I had to put you on ignore, somewhereelse - you will have to go back to arguing w/ Steve. Goodbye.

You're right, bjw - didn't take SWE but a second: so keen was she to count her money like Scrooge McDuck when the Dow passed 11,000, but now that it closed at 9899.48 just a few weeks later, she's headed to the local CoinStar to cash in what's left.

My actual portfolio is cash right now, SWE, but thanks for your concern. Sorry you didn't go short when I told you to. I haven't decided which way the market is going to go - a broker buddy of mine agrees that we will likely see a rally in the next few months, but neither of us is certain of where that rally will start from. So I'm watching the technicals.

What ETF's do you have in mind, bjw? I tend to use Direxion's as the leverage gives them oscillation that makes them relatively easy to profit from. These types of ETF's weren't around before the crash - they were all mutual funds, which didn't perform as advertised and you could only cash out at the EOD NAV. Now I just set buy / sell limit orders, which automates the whole thing. For instance I bought FAZ at 14, sold it at 18 three months later. I was out of the money for a while as the market went up further than I thought it would, but it didn't matter to my strategy as I knew prices would eventually fall.

Just right now I'm not sure of the market's next direction. I think we'll fall to Dow 9500 or 9300, but I'm not willing to bet a lot of money on it.

"LMAO - you are a genius, dude. Up 50% when the market is down 5% - seriously, who do you think will believe that? Why post BS when you know it's not true? What's the point?"

Steve seems to get some satisfaction from thinking people thinks he made good calls. But he hasn't. And he even stopped telling us what he was doing when he did it, because that kept blowing up in his face... now he just makes calls a year after.

Like this one... from earlier in the thread:

------------

> Sorry - I got out of China in January 2008.

Except, uh.... Steve in OCTOBER 2008.

brokersrjokers:
"Are you looking to move into other China positions or are you only going to stick with the Direxion [2x china] bull fund?"

SteveF:
"I'm staying where I am but not adding anything, and when it returns to breakeven I might even sell it, depending on the market conditions. I'm very uncomfortable right now with just about everything, and I like my cash position. I may even sell my cats to make more money. :)"

I'm waiting for Steve to talk his way out of this lie...
------------

Or his bragging about his Dow 6500 call, just a month or so after he said "I DID NOT CALL DOW 6500" (and actually called 11k).

> I had to put you on ignore, somewhereelse - you will have to go back to arguing w/ Steve. Goodbye.

Very mature, BS.

You like starting arguments, and then complain about the responses, holding your hands over your ears.

"she's headed to the local CoinStar to cash in what's left"

That's actually kinda funny.

> You're right, bjw - didn't take SWE but a second

two peas in a pod... it was actually about 45 minutes.
But, hey, we know you have zero grasp of the truth, Steve.

And, wow, you two genius are surprised that when Steve calls me out by name I MIGHT RESPOND.
Wow, genius, really!

you two deserve each other, the rocks in his head fill the holes in yours.

i love it!

"Sorry you didn't go short when I told you to"

at dow 10,200... I checked your call. It was actually the wrong time to go short... dow went up nearly 10% after your call!

But, hey, Steve, you and the truth, not so much.

come on steve, answer on China.... pleeeeeeeease!

I'd love a great laugh today!

Now down 3% on year. Sucks to be me. Oh well - more upside to enjoy when people realize the world actually isn't ending. GL.

"And, wow, you two genius are surprised that when Steve calls me out by name I MIGHT RESPOND."

I don't know, you're pretty wowed that I occasionally respond to some of your outlandish posts. You think participating on an anonymous internet message board is "leg humping" or something. It's pretty funny in light of the fact that you systematically antagonize anyone with an opinion around here. Ironically, that's what made it amusing to prod you on occasion - your "points" aren't really worth debating anymore (they're quite often aimless if not altogether wrong), but the predictability of your rants is strangely satisfying.

"but even if there were I wouldn't ever let the tax tail wag the dog"

Failure to consider taxes is a huge mistake and will cost you massive amounts of $$$ over time (in opportunity costs). Bad move IMO.

For example, if you lost 30% of your profits to short term taxes / fees / expenses, instead of getting a hypothetical return of 15% per year, you would be reduced to 11.5% per year. Over 20 years, instead of generating a hypothetical aggregate return of 1650%, you would only end up with 880%, or about 1/2 of what you would otherwise have if you simply held all your stocks and never sold.

Maybe you presume that you can generate better returns by holding for shorter periods (3 months average hold versus 20 year average hold), but you would be only deceiving yourself - you will not generate any better returns by buying and selling every 3 months and will likely generate worse returns overall (even before taking taxes, etc, into account).

steve, the most important factors in ETFs, I think, are risk level (ie: is it covering a broad part of the market, such as Russell 2000 vs a tiny sector) and fees. Risk you can mix and match depending on your outlook, preferences, and the industry you work in, but lower fees are always best, obviously. Read the Seeking Alpha ETF guide - it's very helpful in sorting through all this.

"Failure to consider taxes is a huge mistake and will cost you massive amounts of $$$ over time (in opportunity costs). Bad move IMO."

absolutely.

"Failure to consider taxes is a huge mistake and will cost you massive amounts of $$$ over time (in opportunity costs). Bad move IMO."

Totally agree, BSexposer. It's a strangely ignored cost. It's precisely why more casual investors should look almost exclusively at ETFs, as I've been saying here.

keep humping, bjw... you don't seem to be able to post anything that isn't personally about me...

you really just can't help yourself!

"you don't seem to be able to post anything that isn't personally about me"

Except, you know, my last 2 posts. But whatever you say humpy!

"Up 50% when the market is down 5% - seriously, who do you think will believe that?"

Anybody who knows anything about shorting the market will know how it's possible.

"at dow 10,200"

Nope - Dow 10,750. I didn't think we'd cross the 11,000 mark, but I was wrong.

I made a lot of money on China, SWE. I told you how I lost money, too: 2x inverse mutual funds that didn't perform as advertised. Unlike you - Scrooge McDuck CoinStar Queen - I admit when I'm wrong because I learn from it, & I don't repeat the same mistakes twice. I might make new ones, but I don't repeat the old ones.

wow, 2 whole posts without going after me personally! A record!

I rest my case, oh horny one.

> I made a lot of money on China, SWE.

Steve, you're now on record lying about China... after lying about Down 6500.. after lying about quite a few other things.

We're way past admitting vs. not-admitting mistakes, you're just dishonest.

I've made some calls that didn't turn out great, certainly.

But lying to make some sort of point... sorry, Steve, you just don't have any credibility with me anymore. Dow 6500 was bad (and funny). But this China thing, wow, seriously.

Any respect I had left for you went out the window with that one.

"wow, 2 whole posts without going after me personally! A record!"

That you're still commenting on it makes it pretty clear you were getting jealous that the attention wasn't lavished upon you. But now it's back on you, humpy, so rest easy.

"Anybody who knows anything about shorting the market will know how it's possible"

Dude, again, no offense, but John Paulson couldn't even return 50% in 2008 when the market was down 37% - and he had Goldman Sachs tailoring shorts to his exact specifications. Of course, anything is possible - I just believe that the odds that you - a random poster on a RE msg bd - has actually done this, when the market is only down about 5% on the year, is virtually nil. So either you are incredibly lucky or you aren't being totally honest.

"sorry, Steve, you just don't have any credibility with me anymore. Dow 6500 was bad (and funny). But this China thing, wow, seriously.
Any respect I had left for you went out the window with that one."

I know, totally. You should post about Steve's credibility at least another 345734570 times, just in case someone on here ever forgets. I know I had forgotten until just now.

Paulson's biggest fund was only up 38% in 2008 - so are you saying you are a better investor that him?

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/30/paulson-defies-financial-crisis-and-posts-huge-gains/

"That you're still commenting on it makes it pretty clear you were getting jealous that the attention wasn't lavished upon you. But now it's back on you, humpy, so rest easy."

Dude, I have no problem not getting my leg humped by you each day. I swear.

Try it, just once.
Try not humping my leg for a good ten minutes.

I'm not sure you can.

"Dude, again, no offense, but John Paulson couldn't even return 50% in 2008 when the market was down 37% - and he had Goldman Sachs tailoring shorts to his exact specifications. Of course, anything is possible - I just believe that the odds that you - a random poster on a RE msg bd - has actually done this, when the market is only down about 5% on the year, is virtually nil. So either you are incredibly lucky or you aren't being totally honest."

hmmm... Answer B???

BSexposer, that 38% was net of fees, no? I'm not sure Steve's counting those. Although if he's really got free trades for a year...

swe, are you suggesting that I respond to every single one of your posts on this board? That would be "humping." But you're the one obsessed with the fact that I do sometimes respond to you. The humanity! If you hate it so much, click ignore. I won't mind. Really.

really, you just can't stop, can you?
How many times have you started personal rants against me today alone?

really, you can't just stop for TEN MINUTES.

impressive.

How many?

bjw, trades are only $7.95 each on Fidelity - not going to eat into my profit very much.

bsex, look into the price history of FAS and FAZ, calculate the daily variance and standard deviation and based on that through multiple trades see if you think it's possible to achieve a 50% return on investment.

SWE - I made 2 calls: the first call was that the Dow was heading toward 6500, which I did not say it would make. The second call was on a subsequent dip in the Dow (March 2009, if I recall) when I said that this time I thought it would reach that point. Time elapses, did you know that?

And you were the one who found the quote from me saying that the Dow would hit 11,000 or thereabouts by the end of 2009. I was wrong by 4 months. Sorry, I'm not perfect.

how long can you go without thinking about me... seriously?

Yes, that's net - so gross would be around 48 to 50 percent. I guarantee you there is no large hedge fund that is currently up 50% on the year.

> SWE - I made 2 calls

Steve, you only made 2 calls?

hillarious.

once again, your revisionist history. You've made 100, up, down, up, down, up down. A year later, you erase all your calls but the two that came closest. Hillarious.

0 credibility.

Sorry steve.

"if you think it's possible to achieve a 50% return on investment"

When did I say it's not possible??? Why are you trying to put words in my mouth that I never said??? Obviously it's possible that SOMEBODY in the total universe of investors is up 50% on the year. However, I believe the odds that YOU (out of all the investors out there) have done so are virtually zero. Sorry, but that's my opinion.

...If you post all your trades with times and prices, I would reconsider my opinion - but whenever I've asked people in the past to do this (to prove their claimed returns), they always hem and haw and never post anything (which means they are lying).

"Yes, that's net - so gross would be around 48 to 50 percent. I guarantee you there is no large hedge fund that is currently up 50% on the year."

You haven't heard of the SteveBizzaro fund?

swe, maybe 3 mins. It's tough, humpy. Poor delusional humpy.

BSexposer, I would doubt 50% as well. But it's a bit tough to compare large hedge funds to individual investors. I don't think it's totally insane to entertain the notion that someone somewhere has made 50% net, though I certainly have my doubts that it happens to be Steve. But I don't really care either. If he did, great; if not, meh.

> swe, maybe 3 mins. It's tough, humpy. Poor delusional humpy.

As long as you are aware of your problem... its the first step.

"But I don't really care either. If he did, great; if not, meh."

I don't care either - I just don't believe the claim, that's all. I've been on a lot of stock message boards and 99% of posters claim they've never had a losing trade, a losing month, a losing year, etc etc etc (or, if they did, it was back in 1981 and they been nothing but golden ever since). It's easy to make up BS and post it on a msg bd - I just don't understand what people get out of it.

...so, anyway SteveJHX, please post your trades from 2010 (if you dare). It's quite easy to do (use the copy and paste function). Then we can see if you are truly legit.

Vague feelings of acceptance? I don't know. I'm more disturbed by the obsession over proving them definitively wrong, and then ridiculing them as if that were possible or even significant in any way. Frankly, I've only followed this thread because of your posts in the past 100+. I'm very much on board with your investing philosophy, just more on the ETF side than researching individual companies.

Here are 2 trades, bsex:

Sold FAZ 06/08/2010 Price: $18.00
Bought FAZ 03/17/2010 Price: $13.8698

Sold EDZ 05/25/2010 Price: $65.00
Bought EDZ 03/19/2010 Price: $46.3091

You do the math.

Steve - I didn't mean cherry pick your winning trades, I mean post ALL your trades from 2010. Anybody can pick out the winning trades and pretend the losing trades never happened.

Also it doesn't say how many shares of each you bought - you need this to do the weighting.

...even if I "do the math" as you suggested, neither trade is up 50%, so unless you bought on margin or something, you haven't made 50% as you claimed.

"I don't care either - I just don't believe the claim, that's all. I've been on a lot of stock message boards and 99% of posters claim they've never had a losing trade, a losing month, a losing year, etc etc etc (or, if they did, it was back in 1981 and they been nothing but golden ever since). It's easy to make up BS and post it on a msg bd - I just don't understand what people get out of it."

bsx... I'll be that guy. I've had all those bad things!

this could be fun... worst bets.

I bought bigstar when they had fallen like 75% because a friend who sold two startups noted they were sitting on a ton of cash (which obviously doesn't matter if you are bleeding it).

I also sold out about 6 months too early before the dotcom crash.... and I didn't get a lot of the runup in the years before (more overall than dotcom) because I was a bit of an equity woos for a while. I took some major profits in like '98. Granted, I did love those 7% money market accounts ;-)

"I didn't mean cherry pick your winning trades, I mean post ALL your trades from 2010."

That would be impossible as they're not all available online; only the last 90 days worth of trades are.

However, those are the only 2 trades I made in that time frame that are closed. I have a small in-the-money position in DRV.

The other trades I made from 2009 through March 2010 were the opposite funds, FAS and EDS, which I closed out shortly before I bought FAZ and EDZ. They earned about the same. I rarely hold more than 5 positions at once because I can't monitor them that closely - the most I've had open this year at once were 3, and you have 2 of them, which account for 90% of my investments.

I place large bets. The reason that managed funds can't do what I do is because they have to send out monthly statements, and they can't be showing huge unrealized losses. I can carry those losses as long as I need to, provided that I think that in the end the market is going my direction.

> That would be impossible as they're not all available online; only the last 90 days worth of trades
> are.

If you use fidelity, they certainly are. I have an account with them. Closed positions, open positions, they're all there. I used fidelity specifically because they have tax lot accounting as well... they have all the data.

"The reason that managed funds can't do what I do is because they have to send out monthly statements, and they can't be showing huge unrealized losses"

Yes, a managed fund would definitely not be able to survive if it had as many losses as steve.

oh, and bad bets...

I pulled trigger too early on the dow crash. I was buying heavy in the dow 8000s. Obviously I was still buying as it went down, but if I had saved some more of my load for the 6s, I would have crushed it. The SSOs bought that low were probably only a third of what I bought.

"That would be impossible as they're not all available online"

What? I use TD Ameritrade and I have access to all my trades back 10 years. How is it that you are able to do your tax returns if you can only access trades 90 days back? How did you figure out your gains/losses for your 2009 return.

Once again, I repeat - when I ask for people to post their trades, it inevitably turns into "My dog ate my homework" and they never post. I thought you might be different Steve...I guess not.

...and if you tell me that you have paper copies of your trades from Jan 1 - March 31 for this year but not electronic access to these trades in your online account, I have to say I don't believe it.

well played, bsx, well played.

Steve - here are ALL of my trades since 1/1/09 in my main account [not my IRA, which is separate and holds only KO shares] - you can see how easy it is to post real trades if you want to (and are not trying to hide the truth).

Date/Time Description Amount Net Cash Balance
05/06/2010 14:17:59 Bought 3300 STD @ 9.86 -32,547.99 ---
05/06/2010 14:00:41 Sold 880 NRG @ 23.1801 20,388.15 ---
05/06/2010 13:58:06 Sold 750 YHOO @ 16.1001 12,064.88 ---
05/06/2010 12:45:54 Bought 4000 STD @ 10.16 -40,649.99 ---
05/06/2010 10:54:18 Sold 350 KO @ 54.0801 18,917.73 ---
05/06/2010 10:53:37 Sold 3500 CNO @ 6.08 21,269.65 ---
04/29/2010 14:50:56 Bought 2100 STD @ 12.33 -25,902.99 ---
02/04/2010 13:22:25 Bought 900 PENN @ 24.2 -21,789.99 ---
11/20/2009 09:56:41 Bought 1950 CHK @ 23.119 -45,092.04 ---
11/12/2009 10:36:48 Sold 3000 GCI @ 11.3 33,899.12 ---
11/12/2009 10:36:48 Sold 1000 GCI @ 11.31 11,299.71 ---
10/30/2009 12:24:26 Bought 3500 CNO @ 5.31 -18,594.99 ---
10/16/2009 15:16:11 Sold 2000 CYCL @ 8.4 16,789.57 ---
08/24/2009 10:17:26 Bought 350 KO @ 49.509 -17,338.14 ---
08/21/2009 10:13:38 Bought 2000 CYCL @ 8.0099 -16,029.79 ---
08/20/2009 10:16:52 Sold 2300 HUN @ 7.2501 16,664.81 ---
06/03/2009 14:13:42 Bought 4000 GCI @ 4.11 -16,449.99 ---
05/27/2009 10:15:24 Bought 2300 HUN @ 6.5499 -15,074.76 ---
05/26/2009 14:59:56 Sold 2100 HUN @ 6.66 13,975.65 ---
03/25/2009 12:37:47 Bought 400 NRG @ 17.21 -6,893.99 ---
03/18/2009 15:22:40 Sold 300 DIG @ 22.8006 6,830.15 ---
03/18/2009 14:57:28 Bought 480 NRG @ 17.94 -8,621.19 ---
03/18/2009 14:23:04 Sold 440 SSO @ 19.88 8,737.16 ---
03/16/2009 13:42:55 Bought 250 COP @ 37.159 -9,299.74 ---
02/23/2009 10:13:02 Bought 100 HUN @ 2.325 -232.50 ---
02/23/2009 10:13:02 Bought 100 HUN @ 2.3298 -232.98 ---
02/23/2009 10:13:02 Bought 1900 HUN @ 2.33 -4,436.99 ---
02/20/2009 14:14:17 Bought 440 SSO @ 18.53 -8,163.19 ---
02/20/2009 13:35:24 Sold 3500 HUN @ 2.3401 8,180.31 ---
02/20/2009 10:39:13 Bought 2 BRK B @ 2,369.99 -4,739.98 ---
02/20/2009 10:39:13 Bought 2 BRK B @ 2,366 -4,741.99 ---
02/20/2009 10:35:40 Sold 500 SSO @ 19.04 9,509.95 ---
02/20/2009 10:31:02 Bought 950 WFC @ 10.0899 -9,595.40 ---
02/20/2009 10:29:39 Sold 500 SSO @ 19.07 9,524.95 ---
02/20/2009 10:15:57 Bought 725 WFC @ 10.51 -7,629.74 ---
02/20/2009 10:14:54 Sold 390 NRG @ 19.5701 7,622.30 ---
02/17/2009 11:55:26 Bought 390 NRG @ 20.53 -8,016.69 ---
01/30/2009 11:18:40 Bought 3500 HUN @ 2.73 -9,564.99 ---
01/21/2009 10:30:09 Bought 7 BRK B @ 2,917 -20,428.99 ---
01/20/2009 13:47:03 Bought 800 WFC @ 15.23 -12,193.99 ---
01/20/2009 11:41:54 Sold 4000 HUN @ 2.9801 11,910.34 ---
01/16/2009 12:14:33 Bought 600 WFC @ 17.65 -10,599.99 ---
01/16/2009 11:30:28 Sold 500 SLM PRB @ 21.75 10,864.94 ---
01/16/2009 11:27:40 Bought 500 WFC @ 18.44 -9,229.99 ---
01/16/2009 11:22:16 Sold 250 SLM PRB @ 22.02 5,504.96 ---
01/16/2009 11:22:16 Sold 150 SLM PRB @ 21.7501 3,252.51 ---
01/16/2009 09:54:29 Sold 500 PSD @ 29.68 14,829.92 ---
01/15/2009 12:10:08 Bought 500 PSD @ 27.21 -13,614.99 ---
01/12/2009 12:49:44 Sold 1000 SAY @ 1.3101 1,310.09 ---
01/12/2009 12:49:44 Sold 3000 SAY @ 1.31 3,919.98 ---
01/12/2009 09:47:24 Bought 3500 SAY @ 1.01 -3,535.00 ---
01/12/2009 09:47:24 Bought 500 SAY @ 1 -509.99 ---

"How is it that you are able to do your tax returns...."

I can go back to 2008 online but the shares split so the prices aren't directly comparable.

You asked me to provide an example of what I've done & how I did it - and I did. I did not make any trades before March 2010 in 2010 - the other holdings were purchased in late 2009. I can give you the snapshot, however, from May 2009 through the end of April 2010:

Your Personal Rate of Return (%)

1-Year (05/01/2009 - 04/30/2010)
Annualized
+71.28%

Obviously, my portfolio increased significantly from 4/30 through 6/8 when I sold out of my positions. I was out of the money on some positions on 4/30, so the 71% figure includes unrealized losses that never materialized.