Manhattan housing in trouble

Some places, absolutely. But we all knew that would be the case - it's location-driven.

On the other hand, some people bought a 2 bed/2-1/2 bath unit with a nice big terrace in my downtown condo for $1.925 MM two years ago in 2005. They just put it back on the market four days ago for $2.650 MM. Assuming they sell it, even at a 5% discount to their asking price, that's not a bad turnaround.

I went to the first open house yesterday (couldn't help myself - always curious to see what other units are like in my building!). Lots of people there (surprising to me for August, I guess, plus with the recent spike in rates). The broker seemed to think that it would go to contract pretty quickly, despite all the recent financial turmoil in the markets.

We shall see - you never know anything until there's a contract in hand! I'm curious about this one, though.

keep in mind there are a boatload of people out there with oodles of liquid cash and are not affected by this sub prime mess. As crazy as this may sound the sub prime situation may make NYC even more stronger once this fades away. Beware the the doomer and gloomers whose main objective is to prey on peoples fears so they can buy on the cheap

It's no longer a sub-prime mess, it's an emergency situation in world credit markets, failing Alt-A mortgages and the looming ARM resets. People with that much liquid cash (most people need significant financing for their home purchase, even in NYC) are almost certainly financially savvy enough to wait out this turmoil.

Well, as the Chinese proverb goes, "It is in the midst of confusion that one finds the best opportunities!"

"It's no longer a sub-prime mess, it's an emergency situation in world credit markets, failing Alt-A mortgages and the looming ARM resets."

Exactly- people who are still thinking 'sub-prime' aren't fully comprehending the current crisis. It's not 'sub-prime', heck it's not even the entire mortgage market- it's that and so much more... all leading up to easy credit and monetary policy. Business and commercial real estate and LBO's and Hedge Funds- they all got greedy.

The Mortgage market (forget about sub-prime) is just the tip of the iceberg.

Bid Low, Bid Low, Bid Low......

REPEAT

Bid Low, Bid Low, Bid Low......

Attention Bidlow: You are in trouble also. You are going to be hit by a truck tomorrow....your would be told tomorrow that you have either prostate cancer or breast cancer....

I really want to buy an apartment and move but I see the market tanking everywhere and I don't think it makes sense to spend $600,000 on a 1-bedroom on the upper eastside just to see it be worth half that in a couple of months. The real estate market is falling apart all over the country. I don't think Manhattan can be immune. I think a recession like the one in the 1990s is back.

OriginalPoster #9:

I think you answered your own question. If you're foolish enough to believe that a well located $600,000 UES Manhattan one bedroom is really going to be worth 'half that in a couple of months,' then you clearly don't understand the current Manhattan residential real estate market, and definitely should not get involved.

I was here during the last recession in the 1990's, and I can tell you with absolute authority that prime locations like the UES (Fifth to Park), UWS (CPW, Riverside), the Village (within the GV Historcal District), SoHo, etc., didn't drop anywhere NEAR 50%. They DID drop (I was in the Village at that time, and things were down at their worst around 15% for the really good stuff), but what really occured is that there was greater illiquidity - in general, most (but not all, of course) sellers held to their prices during the reccesion (or a price with a reasonable discount), and buyers were very informed and particular, resulting in lots and lots of real estate on the market for a VERY long time. Because of that, there was much lower inventory as the dip went on for buyers to choose from because sellers simply knew the time wasn't right, had to live somewhere regardless, and just chose to stay put. I might add, than when the Manhattan real estate market eventually did start to come back in the mid-1990's, values roared back to life in these same prime areas first.

if you are weighing your options, i would take the 600k and buy a house!
(a little advice: woodside, sunnyside, LIC, etc, watch what happens out there in 1-2 yrs) not far from the city, your investment will go further, and there's low taxes.

Don't ruin nice working class neighborhoods like sunnyside, woodside, astoria, etc. with these whiny, anal, spoiled, arrogant, stuck up, overly self entitled, nitpicking, neurotic, flakes from the other side of the 59th street bridge. Move to Jersey instead.

Many buyers for Manhattan real estate are foreign with lots of cash.

#12 guess that brings up another discussion, how fast can a neighborhood can be ruined?
#13 are you suggesting this is a positive force driving manhattan?