Been looking at rental listings on this and other sites to get an idea of the market, since I'm going to be out there looking in a few months. It's clear that rents have rebounded somewhat from 2009, but listings have also stayed way below pre-recession levels through the spring. But in the last month or so, I see owners are jacking up asking prices, sometimes to even higher than the same places... [more]
Been looking at rental listings on this and other sites to get an idea of the market, since I'm going to be out there looking in a few months. It's clear that rents have rebounded somewhat from 2009, but listings have also stayed way below pre-recession levels through the spring. But in the last month or so, I see owners are jacking up asking prices, sometimes to even higher than the same places listed for before the recession.
WTF? I find this laughable. The overall economic news is getting worse, recent employment numbers sucked, the stock market is down, experts say the recovery is slowing, and layoffs are still happening all over the city. Feels to me like landlords are putting up a show of bravado to try to convince renters that rents are shooting up, happy days are here again, no more concessions, blah, blah, blah.
I'm not buying this PR campaign. But would love to hear from people who have recently engaged in rental negotiations and signed leases. How's it going out there?
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Response by AvUWS
over 15 years ago
Posts: 839
Member since: Mar 2008
Simple - If they jack up the prices and rent the apartments then they were right to do so. If they are wrong about the increased prices then they won't be able to rent the apartments. That is how markets work.
I am waiting until things slow down at the end of September to look around and move.
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Response by ab_11218
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2017
Member since: May 2009
they're increasing rents based on the temps outside. wait till november.
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Response by jim_hones10
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3413
Member since: Jan 2010
azalea
about 2 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Been looking at rental listings on this and other sites to get an idea of the market, since I'm going to be out there looking in a few months. It's clear that rents have rebounded somewhat from 2009, but listings have also stayed way below pre-recession levels through the spring. But in the last month or so, I see owners are jacking up asking prices, sometimes to even higher than the same places listed for before the recession.
WTF? I find this laughable. The overall economic news is getting worse, recent employment numbers sucked, the stock market is down, experts say the recovery is slowing, and layoffs are still happening all over the city. Feels to me like landlords are putting up a show of bravado to try to convince renters that rents are shooting up, happy days are here again, no more concessions, blah, blah, blah.
I'm not buying this PR campaign. But would love to hear from people who have recently engaged in rental negotiations and signed leases. How's it going out there?
laughable? have you heard of supply and demand? people are OUT BIDDING each other on apartments. stupid? yes i agree. but why would a business person not raise his rates under those circumstances? waiting until late fall or early winter will bring prices down somewhat./
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Response by Billywilder
over 15 years ago
Posts: 26
Member since: Jun 2010
Keep in mind as well, that few are buying. People have to live somewhere. If you were to take the advice of most of the posters on this website, you would be a fool to buy now..... Putting aside that most on here expect that you would be very conservative and have huge sums of money beyond your down payment.... just in case something happens, the forecast is that RE prices will drop. So if you have a choice now, renting is the recommendation (see strings of discussion of how its cheaper to rent in manhattan than buy right now). Wether you believe the bearish on buying or not, volume of sales seems to have dropped. If everyone is renting out of fear of buying, then of course rents are going to at least remain steady or increases out of simple demand.
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Response by The_President
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2412
Member since: Jun 2009
" experts say the recovery is slowing"
Who are these so call "experts" you cite? There is no such thing as an expert, as 99.9% of them have been wrong, many horribly wrong.
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Response by azalea
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3
Member since: Jul 2010
What you say about people renting vs. buying makes sense, Billywilder. But that has been the situation for the first half of the year too, so I'm not sure it explains people raising rents all of a sudden.
To AvUWS - yes, I understand that markets work that way. Which is why I was trying to get some market intelligence - i.e., whether the increased LISTING prices are being matched by an increase in the ACTUAL rents that people are signing up for. Rents are clearly still negotiable. The question is how negotiable.
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Response by printer
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
azalea - there was a thread not long ago on that very topic. If I recall, the consensus was that the free months incentives were for the most part not being offered, but that nominal rents were basically unchanged, perhaps up 1-2% from the prior year.
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Response by AvUWS
over 15 years ago
Posts: 839
Member since: Mar 2008
Azalea - more data than printer added. Rents probably ARE up from the last quarter but are down a bit from a year ago (Rents in '09 didn't really start dropping until the 3rd and especially 4th quarters. I know, I was looking then.) I think it went somewhat like this:
- 1st Q '09 rents were dropping somewhat but incentives were starting to increase 9 1month, then 2 months)
- 2nd & 3rd Q rents had dropped but were staying somewhat firm through the quarter as there was hope with the increased seasonal activity. Incentives on the other hand were increasing somewhat.
- after Sept. - the panic started to set in. Apartments were sitting for months vacant, rents started to drop much faster instead of incentives being increased more.
- After Jan-Feb 2010 - rents held their new lower level and the apartments that hadn't moved were being held with the hope (I think) that they would move at the new lower prices in the busier spring and summer season. Also the economy was showing signs of strengthening and there were some new classes of finance and legal hired. Incentives start to get pulled.
- this summer - noticeable increases (5-10%?) from the low and reduced incentives.
I am still bearish on rental prices for the post-season.
- A LOT of inventory has been added (1,000's of new apartments on far west, UWS, etc),
- The economy here and in Europe seems not to be growing at the hoped for pace.
- Sales prices have been stable and sales happening. But if this doesn't continue a lot who hoped to sell their developments or investment properties will be in the position of NEEDING to rent (or sell to investor/rentals like Jonathan Miller) further increasing inventory.
Not sure about the timing of the last point. That is more of a policy issue. So long as banks are not forced to show losses they won't press on the developments and the forbearance, and the hope that comes with it, will continue. But if that breaks then there will be much bigger issues than just some inventory.
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Response by azalea
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3
Member since: Jul 2010
Thanks for responding, printer and AvUWS. It does seem likely that if the sales market stalls, at some point more investment properties and new developments would have to end up on the rental market. But as you say, the timing is uncertain. At least for the summer season, it seems like landlords are feeling their oats. Though if you watch the listings here on Streeteasy, there are still lots of price drops for places that were priced too aggressively in the spring. The other thing I observe, now that I'm getting out there to look, is that landlords are offering at the drop of a hat to make repairs and improvements, sometimes pretty major ones. So there are still "stealth" concessions out there, I would say.
Simple - If they jack up the prices and rent the apartments then they were right to do so. If they are wrong about the increased prices then they won't be able to rent the apartments. That is how markets work.
I am waiting until things slow down at the end of September to look around and move.
they're increasing rents based on the temps outside. wait till november.
azalea
about 2 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Been looking at rental listings on this and other sites to get an idea of the market, since I'm going to be out there looking in a few months. It's clear that rents have rebounded somewhat from 2009, but listings have also stayed way below pre-recession levels through the spring. But in the last month or so, I see owners are jacking up asking prices, sometimes to even higher than the same places listed for before the recession.
WTF? I find this laughable. The overall economic news is getting worse, recent employment numbers sucked, the stock market is down, experts say the recovery is slowing, and layoffs are still happening all over the city. Feels to me like landlords are putting up a show of bravado to try to convince renters that rents are shooting up, happy days are here again, no more concessions, blah, blah, blah.
I'm not buying this PR campaign. But would love to hear from people who have recently engaged in rental negotiations and signed leases. How's it going out there?
laughable? have you heard of supply and demand? people are OUT BIDDING each other on apartments. stupid? yes i agree. but why would a business person not raise his rates under those circumstances? waiting until late fall or early winter will bring prices down somewhat./
Keep in mind as well, that few are buying. People have to live somewhere. If you were to take the advice of most of the posters on this website, you would be a fool to buy now..... Putting aside that most on here expect that you would be very conservative and have huge sums of money beyond your down payment.... just in case something happens, the forecast is that RE prices will drop. So if you have a choice now, renting is the recommendation (see strings of discussion of how its cheaper to rent in manhattan than buy right now). Wether you believe the bearish on buying or not, volume of sales seems to have dropped. If everyone is renting out of fear of buying, then of course rents are going to at least remain steady or increases out of simple demand.
" experts say the recovery is slowing"
Who are these so call "experts" you cite? There is no such thing as an expert, as 99.9% of them have been wrong, many horribly wrong.
What you say about people renting vs. buying makes sense, Billywilder. But that has been the situation for the first half of the year too, so I'm not sure it explains people raising rents all of a sudden.
To AvUWS - yes, I understand that markets work that way. Which is why I was trying to get some market intelligence - i.e., whether the increased LISTING prices are being matched by an increase in the ACTUAL rents that people are signing up for. Rents are clearly still negotiable. The question is how negotiable.
azalea - there was a thread not long ago on that very topic. If I recall, the consensus was that the free months incentives were for the most part not being offered, but that nominal rents were basically unchanged, perhaps up 1-2% from the prior year.
Azalea - more data than printer added. Rents probably ARE up from the last quarter but are down a bit from a year ago (Rents in '09 didn't really start dropping until the 3rd and especially 4th quarters. I know, I was looking then.) I think it went somewhat like this:
- 1st Q '09 rents were dropping somewhat but incentives were starting to increase 9 1month, then 2 months)
- 2nd & 3rd Q rents had dropped but were staying somewhat firm through the quarter as there was hope with the increased seasonal activity. Incentives on the other hand were increasing somewhat.
- after Sept. - the panic started to set in. Apartments were sitting for months vacant, rents started to drop much faster instead of incentives being increased more.
- After Jan-Feb 2010 - rents held their new lower level and the apartments that hadn't moved were being held with the hope (I think) that they would move at the new lower prices in the busier spring and summer season. Also the economy was showing signs of strengthening and there were some new classes of finance and legal hired. Incentives start to get pulled.
- this summer - noticeable increases (5-10%?) from the low and reduced incentives.
I am still bearish on rental prices for the post-season.
- A LOT of inventory has been added (1,000's of new apartments on far west, UWS, etc),
- The economy here and in Europe seems not to be growing at the hoped for pace.
- Sales prices have been stable and sales happening. But if this doesn't continue a lot who hoped to sell their developments or investment properties will be in the position of NEEDING to rent (or sell to investor/rentals like Jonathan Miller) further increasing inventory.
Not sure about the timing of the last point. That is more of a policy issue. So long as banks are not forced to show losses they won't press on the developments and the forbearance, and the hope that comes with it, will continue. But if that breaks then there will be much bigger issues than just some inventory.
Thanks for responding, printer and AvUWS. It does seem likely that if the sales market stalls, at some point more investment properties and new developments would have to end up on the rental market. But as you say, the timing is uncertain. At least for the summer season, it seems like landlords are feeling their oats. Though if you watch the listings here on Streeteasy, there are still lots of price drops for places that were priced too aggressively in the spring. The other thing I observe, now that I'm getting out there to look, is that landlords are offering at the drop of a hat to make repairs and improvements, sometimes pretty major ones. So there are still "stealth" concessions out there, I would say.