Ones that got away: Best buys from the Crash

seg made a great point on the previous page:

"... a buyer could compare his potential purchase with some of the units posted here. If they don't like the comparison, they ma[y] think twice. From this perspective, the thread may actually have a chilling effect on poor purchases..."

That is SO true. I've seen this happen repeatedly. The most recent instance was in one of the buildings mentioned in this thread. A client was interested in a listing that I consider very comparable to the 2009 "best buy" cited earlier. (There haven't been any comparable sales in the building since). As we were putting together a bid, I said, "I think this apartment will appraise about 20% below ask, because there's no way to ignore that ugly 2009 comp, and there's no solid data to show that the value has risen significantly in the past year. I think it's up about 10%, but an appraiser probably won't see it that way because there aren't enough closed sales to prove it." That anchored the client's perception of value at the 2009 level. So we bid it that way, and didn't even get a counter - just a poison-pen e-mail from the listing agent. His view was that I wasn't doing my job.

To some extent, he was right. It's one thing to inform a client about comps. It's another thing to create an unrealistic expectation that a current listing will sell at the same level as a comparable prior sale. Right now, it's pretty hard to get Spring 2009 pricing on the Upper West Side. That price level may very well return, but it hasn't happened yet.

That was really my original point in starting this thread: RIGHT NOW, many buyers are looking back a year and saying, "Gee, I should have bought that one." Of course, there's a fallacy built into that regret. If those remorseful non-buyers had been more aggressive a year ago, there would have been more competitive bidding and, hence, higher prices. To win, it would have been necessary to outbid the actual winners, and there's no way to know how much more money that would have required.

Walther7. Okay I'll try to be nice.

So w81, you do a comp (can't ignore facts), you get a poison letter (probably pointing out you started a comps thread and making life miserable for alot of sellers and their brokers) from other broker. Making your life harder. You come on se to say 'hey man weren't some of these the 'greatest' bargains ever?!

Look Walther, I'm trying to be nice but my hypocrite spidey sense is off the rocker.

"You come on se to say 'hey man weren't some of these the 'greatest' bargains ever?!"

NOT what was said. Give it a rest.

Fwiw, a lot of buyers as this massive bubble peaked used last yr price 10%, we all admit bubble popped so shouldn't we be bidding last trade minus 10%. Where is th logic of massive bubble did not pop!?

Furthermore, let's just say given the lengths to which coops and brokers manipulate closing prices, do not negotiate against yourself. If there is another bidder the unit will go away. It's a buyer's mkt, plenty more inventory coming. I hear the god of cash flow ordered up a ton more inventory.

w67th, you didn't respond when I asked you a few days ago, so I'll ask again - where do you see an extra 30k (the number you had given) in inventory coming from?

Just extrapolate. You had 10k units for Sale with 100 foreclosures, ergo 300 foreclosures would mean 30k units for sale. Or take open houses. Normal Sunday open houses 700 = 12k for sale, 2.5k open houses = 36k for sale.

See I can make up anything I want. If borkers can say ALL 2009 closings don't matter cause it's making my life a little harder, well I can believe, can't I?

Pls tell 'me what does 'best buys from the crash' mean? Bjw.

Pls tell 'me what does 'best buys from the crash' mean? Bjw.

I'll take a stab at this.

His term, "Best buys from the crash":

"Best buy" means a purchase price that would likely not be attainable on a comparable unit in today's market (August 2010) . This makes it a "best buy" on relative basis -- relative to alternatives at that time, and relative to present opportunities. There is no embedded opinion here on absolute valuation or future market moves.

"From the crash" basically meant contract dates ranging from mid-08 to mid-09 (I think)

Now, how about W67's outrageously misquoted line: "Greatest bargains ever"

"Bargain" - Implies an absolute bargain that will only go up in value.
"Greatest ever" - Of all time -- Better deal than the 90's

The two statements do not mean the same thing. At all.

Not sure how you can extrapolate that way. You're saying because of a snapshot view of the market in which you saw 100 foreclosures and an inventory of 10k units, that means the ratio holds true at all times? Show me the correlation. Same with the open houses. I don't care what brokers say one way or the other. You claim to be the voice of reason, or some such thing, but based on this kind of stuff it's hard to see you as any more credible than they are.

'best buys from the crash' is not exactly the same thing as 'greatest bargains ever' now is it?

Bjw/seg. Flmaoz. I am so tired of the borker crap and their methods of gaming the system, that I've had it. There is a whole thread on manipulating closing prices higher. 104w 78th St ph listing with doctored pictures.

And on and on. Sorry if you don't understand the motivation for w81 to be back on the board after a long long absence. The first thread he starts is 'greatest bargains of crash'?

F'k 'me. Okay guys. Seriously I've laid out my economic theories. Choose a side. By more coops. Knock uuraelf out.

w67th, not here to "choose sides." Not interested in that game at all. Discussing real estate in level-headed terms is good stuff - you should try it sometime. The movement's been interesting, but I'm not exactly rushing out to buy any property right now. I'll be curious to see in 3 years whether or not you'll be the biggest "buy now!" shill on this board. Because that's kind of what you've been setting up.

Thanks for pointing out that w81 is a broker and all his nefarious motivations for about the 15th time on this thread. Very helpful.

LOL re. your use of "greatest bargains" again...

What I can never fathom is the hostility to information. As someone pointed out, we already have comps threads in which probably 90% of the sales show a downward trend. If there now happens to be some information that takes a new slant on things and seems to defy conventional wisdom, most would welcome this with interest.

And what is this notion of "choose a side"...? One might think it's more rational and intelligent to refine your view as circumstances change. Rather than start with a preconceived "theory" and ram it down everyone's throat.

W67: I think you would have a stronger gripe if I had started a thread on the best bargains currently available. Unfortunately, there aren't any - not in my neighborhood. Inventory is thin and weak, and sellers' expectations have risen on the strength of a few impressive trades (e.g. the recent 3BR sales at 885 WEA).

Transactions are still happening at what I would call 2009-ish prices (see the latest trade at 140 RSD, where a Crayola-Factory paint job may have cost the owners $100K at resale time). But its pretty easy for sellers - and brokers pitching a listing - to define market pricing by the strong sales. That makes for a wider bid-ask spread, a slowdown in activity and, over time, lower prices, I think. I just don't expect it to happen quickly, and for many buyers, the waitinw is the hardest part.

One other thing, W67: I didn't return from an extended absence to start this thread. I've been posting steadily on the IYCDMMWC, Price-Chopper and Lowball threads. That activity doesn't fit at all with your view of my agenda. Anyway, I think/hope you're kidding around, and it's all in good fun.

"And seriously, if you don't understand as w81 obviously does not, that bubbles tend to pop with trades above and below the downward trend line then I can't help you guys."

Actually I'm pretty sure everyone does get this. Not every trade falls smack on the trend line.

Curious here -- just picking the most prevalent type of sale on this thread, W81 and other have posted a slew of C6's that traded below $1.5 "from the crash". W67: are you seeing comparable C6's selling below $1.5 lately? If so, where?

W 81. I think you are right to accept w67's particularly wonderful personality disorder as non-threatening. I think the slowdown you describe is an interesting take. I share w67's frustration that buyers and others on this thread don't have a longer view point. Every bubble has a dead cat bounce. The most pernicious one was after the 29 crash and that dead cat bounce was followed by a severe depression. I think the recent --heavily stimulated-- upturn in sales is indeed a dead cat bounce. But it will take time to realize the truth of that supposition. This thread is interesting because for every micro argument -- particular listings-- there is w 67's macro response.

The job report today was actually rather frightening and the stock market downturn is not really reflecting how bad it is. If you study Meredith Whitney's forecast for the banking industry, it is also shocking. I know not everyone takes her forecasts seriously but she has been uncannily accurate in the past and if only part of her forecast comes to pass, it will not bode well for NY RE.

They jury is still out. I know you are a meticulous and measured judge of trends and your insights contrasted with w67's mighty macro call might well establish this thread as one of the most prescient precursors of a larger downturn.

excellent points, apt23.
I am loving this thread.

If w67th stuck to "macro responses," I'd have no issue with him. But I get sick of his petulant, juvenile personal attacks on posters who add value to this board. I don't find him cute or funny anymore.

bjw: even though you don't accept w67's exact extrapolation, you have to give some credence to an uptick in inventory. banks are holding onto tons of bad paper and they let out the cheaper stuff first. plus higher priced homes (NYC) tend to lag in foreclosures -- for many reasons. So the coop argument for lack of foreclosures that is constantly posted on SE will give way if unemployment stays around 10% as is expected. Plus 67 is not even including shadow inventory in his number. Which is huge. And not tracked. Anywhere.

..I don't find him cute or funny anymore.

I do.

apt23, who exactly on this thread is calling a bottom here? I don't think anyone here has anything but a long term view, so I'm confused as to how you reached your conclusions. That doesn't negate an ability to appreciate West81st's thread here - ultimately, when you buy a home, you buy one home, and those listings (the "micro" view, as you call it) are your bread and butter. There's no reason why you can't pay attention to both sides of the coin at the same time.

I like his juvenile petulance, best not to take it personally.

apt23, by his own admission, those extrapolations are hokey. And if he's not including shadow inventory in his added 30k of inventory, then where is all that stuff coming from? And I disagree that it isn't being tracked - I've occasionally updated a pretty thorough list of shadow inventory in my neighborhood for the past 18 months or so. I can dig up the thread if you'd like. On top of this, I haven't seen a recent uptick in inventory. Read Noah's post on this:
http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/08/a_seasonally_slow_manhattan_su.html

No reason to take it personally - but I can see how it's extremely off-putting for newbie posters and the like. I'd prefer to see more than just us regulars discussing this stuff - we repeat ourselves far too much in the process.

"Minor in stats and get an A. Double major in Econ and finance from an ivy, get honors. Or listen to a tranny comps guy who got his 2 week broker professional license."

How rude!

w67th is a one trick pony and has a little wee wee. Now lets get back to the subject of the thread.

So it appears, no surprise, that w67 has launched a vitriolic attack on W81st, one of the more pleasant, professional posters on this board. At this point, with all the Hitler, whore, tranny, etc. references which permeate his comments, I can only come up with one reason why SE allows him to participate - that this board provides an outlet for him to vent his frustrations, and they rightly fear for his family should he no longer have this outlet. B/C no balanced person should be getting this upset over someone posting on apartments that appear to have sold for attractive prices 1yr ago.

lighten up and get a sense of humor.

Anyway, to get this thread somewhat back on track, here's one that only closed a month ago that may indicate there's still room to hit bottom in the downtown market. Love the location. Sold for $770k (~960/sqft). Not a huge bargain, but considerably lower than most prices I've seen in the immediate area in the last 4 years.

Link (sorry): http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/479715-condo-165-elizabeth-street-nolita-new-york

wc_nyc: Rude, yes, but mostly an inside joke. W67 knows that I have an Ivy degree and a reasonably respectable day job, and that I obtained a real estate license to join Keith Burkhardt in testing an alternative business model for representing buyers. He also knows that I'm not transgendered, except in the virtual sense of having dropped a few vague hints that I was female to obscure my identity so I could continue writing anonymous open house reports.

"I don't find him cute or funny anymore"

That's b/c you aren't picturing him feverishly typing away as a troubled 8 y.o boy in an aquaman t-shirt. it helps.

Ignore 67s references to body parts and bodily functions, as well as the fact that he's didn't pay last months' rent as a tenant at a prior property, had lawsuits with his tenants when he was a residential property owner, seems to support war in the Middle East against Israel (or at least he keeps mentioning it), is pro the mother who killed her 4 kids, and is supported by columbiacounty, one of only two posters who remains greyed out.

W81, still, I have to give you credit for being so nice about it even after all his comments. Miss your open house reports!

"He also knows that I'm not transgendered..."

this thread is hilarious.

I would love to hear NYC10023's input on this thread - UWS classic 6's and 7's - she kmows the buildings, the apartments, everything!!

Real estate cycles are by their very nature long.

We're here looking at pricing minute by minute, day by day, week by week. This whole thing could take five or more years to unwind. I personally don't think so, but could be. Along the way people will continue to buy and sell all the way down the curve. In the end it will unwind, because economic fundamentals don't sustain current price levels.

I like both w81st and w67thstreet and hope they both continue to post.

Just one comment: most of the units reported here as great deals are coops, where financing might be difficult and the board even more so. Plus, they often do not let you rent, so that's another deterrent, especially for foreigners. (combined with the fact that the board knows everything about you, and the median age of the tenants is 75 :-) - I don't know why anybody would want to live in a coop, but that's an opinion)

I have yet to find great deals in condos in the UES (where I am looking)- yes, there was a decline in 2009, but not that marked.

What do you all think?

Thanks

ph41: nyc10023 e-mailed me a few favorites:

1) 300WEA, 4A, 5A (go Tina Fey). 3A went into K quickly at last ask over 5 in the last month.
2) 50 RSD 4CD - huge 11-room combo, unrenovated but original features in beautiful shape
3) 258RSD - top floor combo
4) 317W77 - 6 above-ground floors, park block TH, close under 4m
5) that 320WEA Kagan estate
6) that other WEA 6 that closed under 1m [probably 522 WEA]
7) 277WEA, C7 under 2m (6C?)
8) 311W75, large Gothic TH, over 7000sqft, complete gut job, closed at 4.5m

mfornier: I don't think condos have fared much better than coops, and tightened underwriting standards probably affect condos more profoundly. New construction has certainly taken its lumps. Older condos are a mixed bag. The ones hit hardest have been those with low owner-occupancy, where it's not possible to get a conforming loan - even with 20 or 30% down.

BTW, Bela and 10023 are probably right about 277 WEA #6C. I left it out because I don't have a good feel for what it would fetch today and also because I don't like the idea of putting major money into renovating an apartment that will always be saddled with a view of Schwab House; but it certainly sold far below its peak value.

My wife and I still cry over http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/441675-coop-200-central-park-south-central-park-south-new-york.Must have been an inside deal. Broker sold it in a couple of days. Unbelievable buy.

NYC10023 - Hope you're not boycotting SE for sone reason. Your input, reasoned, knowledgeable, calm and on topic, is always appreciated.

West81st - Thanks for the thread and the insight. Really good stuff. W67thstreet you come across as bitter and sad. Just relax a bit and stop trying to dominate every thread with your views on where the RE market is headed. We get it, the world is ending.

West 81st I miss your open house reports. I think you are the most knowledgeble west sider on this board and the one whose posts always provide info unlike just rhetoric and usual bla bla bla of some so predictable others. THANK YOU West 81st.

prospective, he is bitter. He has two consistent themes

Real estate is too expensive, even though when he rented a prior apartment he didn't pay his last month's rent, and when he owned residential real estate he was in multiple lawsuits with tenants

He would have been more successful if he weren't part of some lower caste, whether back home or in the US. He's still angry that even though he was a TA in business school, he couldn't compete with the politics of being a junior investment banker. So he comes here and brags about sex, his wife, his money, his watches, his car, what he does at the gym, his Porsche, his yacht ...

Bela: My pleasure. Looking forward to hitting more open houses in the fall.

Here's one from the East Side: 1150 Park #3A. This distinctively renovated five looks like a nice buy in hindsight. Debuted with Sothebys in 2007 at $2.75MM; sold by Corcoran for $1.449 in 2009. Although the opening ask was nutty, this one looks like a bargain based on subsequent events: #11A sold for $2.475 (just $225K below its 2007 basis); and #4A, in estate condition, went to contract quite quickly asking $1.75MM.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/392485-coop-1150-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/477649-coop-1150-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/505959-coop-1150-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

w81, what is the significance of the lock box situation at the Apthrop? - care to tell me where in the amendments/waivers phase of the bank taking over the project those classic 5.6.7.8.9.10 are at? How many UWS C6 do you think will flood the mkt, and will they be good comps for your 2009 "deals" of the crash (which is not over by the way)?

on your 1150park, $300K risk discount to buy in 2009 versus $1.75MM in 2010 sounds completely within norm. - shrug -

fun tidbit. women w/ fake boobs are 5x more likely than the general public to be on mood stabilizers. Dolly Lens is on drugs.

w67. Ever since another poster gave the news that rent checks now go to the bank instead of the developer at the Apthorp, I have been looking for a media report on the bank takeover. Can you confirm one?

btw, the non reno prices at $1300 still seemed high to me. At the apts I saw, they were so cut up, you needed an architect to reconfigure rooms, bathrooms etc. Plus the physical state of the apts was horrible. Floors destroyed by cat piss, huge cracks in walls, etc. So this is more than a normal upscale $400-$600 psf reno cost. I'm sure that the buyers who thought they got a steal at $1300 to get under the wire will not be happy to hear the bank has taken over. How do you decide how much to put into your reno when there is a chance that the bank will undercut the price of every apt in the building just to get out from under the burden.

And, if the Rushmore judgement comes back in favor of the buyers (again!), it is likely they will all bail on their purchases. So count those 43 apts back on the market along with the 40 -50 at The Laureate that will all be competing for the $3-5M buyer on the UWS.

apt23, sorry you got caught up on the conradcounty crap. That dude is nutz.

I have NO insider info on the Apthorp. Just based on a poster saying chks are going into Lock_box as you note. It was seem very reasonable at this point to think the loan is in the asset recovery dept of the bank. I had a great old timer asset recovery guy who relished his job. First order of business, let the marketing guy and equity guy prove themselves fools to the credit committee at bank by letting a few waivers/amendments pass.. then come in both barrels blazing, "lock box" the CASH! It didn't take long to get a bank chosen asset recover guy at $5K day to oversee this mess.

As to your question about $1300psf, there are LOTS OF LOTS OF PPL that are COMPLETE financial retards. I see this firsthand, spend $6MM on RE last year and kicking themselves in the azz. This was their logic and I assume all the lemmings that are buying $1200+ psf C6 uws.
1) I have $3MM in cash earning 1%!;
2) the other units are asking $2000psf! (I got a bargain!);
3) ALWAYS underestimate their RENO cost, they are throwing in $600K to reconfigure bathroom/bed);
4) Broker tells me mkt is picking UP!;
5) I won't regret a final resting "home" purchase. IF that is the case, shouldn't 99% of all sales in NYC be ESTATE (i.e. owners have died and children don't want it?) sales?

Agreed, on the HUG HUGE HUGE overhang of shadow inventory in the C6/7/8/9/10 markets. And it took what,? 10 units for w81 to declare the market is up 10% since 2009? And then he backpedaled on all except the first 4... flmaoz...

whats' so so so funny about this thread is that w81 is pointing to a dead cat bounce and saying, the "crash is over!"

Reminds me of a book I used to read to my son, called "I am a rabbit." A baby rabbit is confused by various other animals to be rat, frog, cat bc he is brown, jumps and has whiskers.. and the baby rabbit goes each time to ask his mommy if indeed he is a rabbit.

A DEAD CAT bounce by definition is a terrible sucker's trade in a bubble popping, akin to buying Pets.com at every mini-"relief"/technical/short-covering rallies... LMAO.

a bargain about to become a bigger bargain is no bargain at all.

w81, also uses the word "ugly" 2009 comp while submitting a bid for his buyer. WHY in the world would a low 2009 comp be considered "ugly" if you are the buyer's borker? WTF?

W67. It is not just that the bank is taking the rent checks. It is that the bank is THE ANGLO IRISH BANK!!!. It is owned by the Irish Govt. ---because the bank had so much RE bad paper. Do you think those Irish tax payers are going to listen to Dolly saying, "Even though there are 897 apts in Manhattan on the market for 3-5 million and the median ppsf is 1662 and our apts have been totally trashed, I think we should hold out for $2000 psf so my commission is higher." Sorry Dolly. Those tax payers will not wait around to pay for your botox. Those prices are going down. The write off is already on the books, so they will probably want to just dump it and get out before a double dip. How ironic would it be W67 if your $500 call came on the back of the Apthorp? No one wudda thunk it.

"w81 is pointing to a dead cat bounce and saying, the "crash is over!""

w67th, where the h are you getting that from? This is what he said: "I personally think a double-dip is the most likely scenario." Please, more facts, less made up bs and ranting.

bjw, look I am one of those rare minorities from my country who actually scored higher on the reading comp than the math, and my math was kick azz... so my reading comp is pretty darn good.

"BEST BUYS FROM THE CRASH" ???? Best is an absolute, CRASH by definition has a beginning, middle and an end.

He could have re-written it, "BEST BUYS in 2009, the BEGINNING OF THE CRASH!"

BJW, why did he use the loaded word "ugly" in describing 2009 comps? UGLY for whom?

the language choices are definitely interesting....

w67th, I scored 99th percentile on the GRE verbal back in the day (and yes, my math was "kick azz" as well, so no need to talk about reading comprehension here. You're parsing out a sentence that's far more innocuous than you make it out to be, while conveniently ignoring the sentence I put up there for, not to mention putting in quotation marks something that he didn't even say. That's ballsy. And yes those are ugly comps for sellers. What's your point? Every trade has at least two sides to it. Would it kill you to have some balanced perspective? No one here is saying what you seem to think they are.

w67thstreet
about 2 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse ...
fun tidbit. women w/ fake boobs are 5x more likely than the general public to be on mood stabilizers. Dolly Lens is on drugs.

Helpful as always

They sat me in a special class. I road to school in a 'little' yellow bus and yes...wore a hockey helmet. I'd love to brag to all of you about my percentiles but, most of the time I received colors instead of grades. Given that...this thread does invite the idea that this 'phase' (being a crash) has now concluded and we now pick over the bones of the last 18 months and assess the damage.
The argument is...is the reduction of price over?
I think it's more like the day after Katrina. A few fly bys over the region led to the assessment that the damage was reasonable. Then the levis broke and the whole thing turned to gravy (the lumpy kind).
I think we are at the 'Those levis aren't looking too good' phase.

"Dolly Lens is on drugs"

What'choo talk'bout Willis?

Seems to me that you could also find cheaper rental deals during the low period of early 2009, than you can today.

this thread ain't dead yet....

Hmm, W81st, or the guy whose investment banking pedigree was limited to Dean Witter Reynolds, the financial branch of Sears Roebuck.

"Seems to me that you could also find cheaper rental deals during the low period of early 2009, than you can today. "

Rents in my building are lower now than they were then. They actually went down the most in late 2009, then up a bit, then back down just a little higher than late 2009... although will be interesting when the winter months hit, perhaps we hit them again.

"Seems to me that you could also find cheaper rental deals during the low period of early 2009, than you can today. "

Rents in my building are lower now than they were then. They actually went down the most in late 2009, then up a bit, then back down just a little higher than late 2009... although will be interesting when the winter months hit, perhaps we hit them again.

I can't believe we neglected our own Urbandigs in this discussion:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/384328-coop-152-east-94th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

Not the greatest apartment, but ~$550/SF was fairly stunning. I wonder if Noah has a sense of how much this one might have bounced in 2010. #9J upstairs is looking for $900/SF; seems like a stretch.

w67thstreet
about 4 weeks ago
ignore this person
report abuse this thread ain't dead yet....

no it aint hubby!

Here's another epic price-chopper that looks pretty good in hindsight, at least for now.
221 West 82nd Street #14C:
01/04/2008 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,767,000.
01/22/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,682,000.
02/25/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,595,000.
03/04/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $1,495,000.
03/31/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,425,000.
04/04/2008 Listing is no longer available.
04/11/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
04/24/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,375,000.
05/13/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,325,000.
08/08/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/02/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
09/02/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $1,295,000.
10/08/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,239,500.
10/14/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,195,000.
12/15/2008 Delisted temporarily.
02/03/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
02/03/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $995,000.
02/19/2009 Listing is no longer available.
04/09/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/07/2009 Sale recorded for $947,500.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/164090-coop-221-west-82nd-street-upper-west-side-new-york
#5C sold in May 2010 for $1.35MM. Much better condition, but nothing really special and minus the views. #11C, which needs significant work, was just listed for $1.2MM.

West81stg - but 5rC and 11C - both sponsor- no board approval - units, which seem to go over market.

w67thstreet
about 9 weeks ago
ignore this person
report abuse apt23, sorry you got caught up on the conradcounty crap. That dude is nutz.

?

West 81st, 14C at 221 West 82 needed extensive work as well. The toilet in the kitchen did not qualify as a second bathroom. Maintenance then was around 2300. It was tempting. You've already seen 11C?
Aside, 340 West 86 #4B seemed very appealing at 1.595. If I'm not mistaken, it's a flip attempt that has been reduced once to just under 2M........ the ones I let get away.

Ph41, 221 West 82 is a Condop and never requires board approval.

You're a smart guy, w67th street, what do you think price-to-rent ratios should be in the current interest rate (etc.) environment?

Anyone else?

Maybe 221 West 82nd #14C doesn't fit the heading "Ones that got away", which implies regret at not having taken the plunge. At $1.7MM, that apartment was the bubble incarnate. At $950K, the value seems pretty good - although not quite as good as 522 WEA #6A, another example of a buyer trading maintenance and condition against $/SF.

I'll also toss in a couple of Honorable Mentions at the Turin:

333 Central Park West #33
11/06/2007 Listed in StreetEasy, already in contract, by Corcoran at $4,475,000.
01/18/2008 Price decreased by 11% to $3,995,000.
04/07/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $3,700,000.
06/29/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $3,595,000.
09/10/2008 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $3,499,000.
10/02/2008 Price decreased by 9% to $3,199,000.
10/17/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $2,999,000.
11/17/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $2,799,000.
12/08/2008 Listing entered contract.
03/02/2009 Sale recorded for $2,490,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348024-coop-333-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

333 Central Park West #56
06/19/2008 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $5,200,000.
07/01/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $4,875,000.
09/09/2008 Price decreased by 14% to $4,200,000.
12/08/2008 Price decreased by 17% to $3,495,000.
02/27/2009 Price decreased by 15% to $2,975,000.
04/14/2009 Delisted temporarily.
06/04/2009 Price decreased by 16% to $2,495,000.
08/12/2009 Listing entered contract.
10/14/2009 Sale recorded for $2,350,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/305017-coop-333-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

Aside from the eye-popping price cuts, these sales make the "Best Buy" list (with a few obvious disclaimers) because they mark such a huge drop from the peak comp (http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/96565-coop-333-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york) and because a subsequent sale of a sixth-floor wreck suggests some degree of recovery.

245 West 99th Street (Ariel West) #7C: Not my cup of tea, but the subsequent sale of #9C for $1.395MM makes the buyer of this distressed resale look pretty astute.
01/10/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $1,586,433.
05/03/2008 Listed by CBHK at $1,620,000.
06/13/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $1,595,000.
09/09/2008 Price decreased by 1% to $1,575,000.
10/01/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,500,000.
10/30/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $1,450,000.
11/26/2008 Listing entered contract.
01/09/2009 Sale recorded for $1,200,000
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/229434-condo-245-west-99th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

588 West End Avenue #14A: The resale of this modest, front-facing 2BR/1.5BA seemed unremarkable until the nearly identical #7A traded for $1.04MM five months later.
06/14/2004 Previous Sale recorded for $805,100.
04/08/2009 Previously Listed by Halstead Property at $1,099,000.
08/08/2009 Delisted temporarily by Halstead Property.
10/07/2009 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $995,000.
01/22/2010 Listing entered contract.
03/29/2010 Sale recorded for $950,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/469543-coop-588-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
This segment, which surged close to peak levels in the spring, seems to have cooled again. So #14A's "Best Buy" label may prove fleeting.

440 West End Avenue #10E: When #12E closed in mid-2010 for $969K, #10E earned a place on the "Best Buys" list.
09/17/2008 Listed by Halstead Property at $1,295,000.
11/26/2008 Price decreased by 19% to $1,049,000.
01/11/2009 Listing is no longer available.
01/23/2009 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
02/04/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $995,000.
02/28/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $899,000.
04/04/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/27/2009 Sale recorded for $775,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349483-coop-440-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
To my eye, better light and views gave #10E an edge over #7E, which sold around the same time for $800K, 19.2% below its 2006 basis.

137 Riverside Drive #11DE: Rambling Clarendon combination with river views from the living room. Ambitious asking price on the original 2008 listing cost the owners dearly.
04/17/2008 Listed by Corcoran at $3,895,000.
05/28/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $3,650,000.
07/28/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $3,495,000.
10/16/2008 Delisted temporarily.
03/19/2009 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $2,895,000.
04/23/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/22/2009 Sale recorded for $2,460,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/392909-coop-137-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

The apartment had flaws, but the recent purchase of #2D and #2E for combination, for a total of $2.45MM, make #11DE look like a bargain.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/464823-coop-137-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/516098-coop-137-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

I was revisiting this thread and picked a random place. Any thoughts on the following "best buy" wreck that closed in 2009 for $760 a sq ft:

West81st: "215 W 98th Street #11B - Big Gramont wreck with limited views but a lot of detail and potential.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/237206-215-w-98-st-upper-west-side-new-york"

And the gut-renovated floor below that close late 2010 for $1010:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/499252-coop-215-west-98th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

A difference of $250 a sq ft. I'd put the lost carry during renovation at $50-ish, and the renovation here seems $200-ish (though I'm no expert on this). To me, the 2009 vs 2010 sales look very comparable.

West81st (or others), curious to hear what you think on this one. A "best buy" of 2010 as well, or maybe the 2009 wasn't all that special?

inonada: #11B closed for $1.45MM, or $690/SF. $1.595MM ($760/SF) was just the final price on the listing.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/800792.
At $1.595MM, it would not have made my list.

My bad: didn't realize SE missed on lining up the listing with the sale.

Nevertheless, what price do you put on the reno & associated carry costs? Adjusted, does the 2010 sale look much different than the 2009 sale plus a market-typical 5% bump between the two time points?

inonada: I think you could recreate #10B in #11B for under $500K. IIRC, #10B hadn't undergone a particularly radical renovation; the floorplan hardly changed at all, and there was no central air. #11B showed horribly, and the bathrooms were a mess, but most of the apartment was salvageable.

Thanks, w81.

This one http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/389531-condo-372-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york was after the crash but was a true steal that we were outbid on. Great Central Park views.

5/6C at 812 Park is noted in this thread as a "best buy from the crash". It sold for $5M in 4/09 (arguably the bottom of the market).

It is back on the market asking $9.95M (after a 905K price reduction)

Any chance is sells for anything near ask?

"bjw: even though you don't accept w67's exact extrapolation, you have to give some credence to an uptick in inventory. banks are holding onto tons of bad paper and they let out the cheaper stuff first. plus higher priced homes (NYC) tend to lag in foreclosures -- for many reasons. So the coop argument for lack of foreclosures that is constantly posted on SE will give way if unemployment stays around 10% as is expected."

apt23, what's your take on this 15 months later?

two choices: it was wrong, its early.

what do you think?

>>Any chance is sells for anything near ask?<<

Not unless they did a super-high end reno complete with hand-fresco'd ceilings and solid gold toidies.

>two choices: it was wrong, its early.

early = wrong
late = wrong

it's useless to say that the temperature will be 85 degrees and humid soon, and then claim in July that you were right.

so you think the economy is equivalent to the weather?

cc, don't know. If the timing is that far off, it's not a particularly prescient/helpful call. I see absolutely no sign of the inventory explosion that was supposed to have happened by now. Are there reasons for concern? Sure. But I don't see how anyone can time this nearly as well as some seem to think. Do you?

>columbiacounty
about 10 hours ago
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so you think the economy is equivalent to the weather?

Yes, that's on the dot exactly what I said.

timing is impossible. but the trends seem quite clear. what is going on in the economy is not a blip or even a severe blip. it is the result of years of kicking the can down the road. projecting the future based on the past is simply that---a vague groping in the dark. there is too much of everything yet too few people have the means to purchase these things. there is too much disagreement above everything and too little respect for the difference between opinions and facts.

what scenario do you see that has a happy ending?

cc, what do you mean by happy ending? There will always be those happy with the outcome and those kicking themselves, no matter how it plays out. The scenario I see is a pretty boring one - pretty much the steady course we've seen since '09. No real appreciation, but no second leg down either. That goes hand in hand with the flatlined inventory. Do you see all this shadow inventory and foreclosure stuff that others had been touting?

happy ending would include some or all of the following: true unemployment coming down to the levels of 4-5 yrs ago. the ability of a middle class to live reasonably well without needing to work multiple jobs and a real solution to massive over promising of future benefits.

manhattan has always existed in a sort of bubble relative to the rest of the country; the last few years have only distorted this even further. many of us (myself included) have been the beneficiary of this. i don't believe that this particular party can go on forever. does that mean i know a precise when it will stop and what they will look like? hell no.

cc, that seems fair to me, though I do think that "living reasonably well" is a qualifier that can have very different definitions depending on who you ask.

How have you benefited from the ongoing distortion?

Remember when the stock market just sort of went sideways for a real long time?
Manhattan RE will probably just go sideways for a real long time. The difference is that things you put in RE, things you eat in RE, stuff you wear, the heating and cooling of your RE, this will all change in cost.
Once a million dollars was a huge amount of money when you could buy a 2 bedroom in town for 65K.
Whe a half gallon of milk(non-organic) is $27 dollars, that over priced apartment might no seem so expensive.

not seem so expensive