Prediction of 45% gain...

nice...you got me

if those numbers bear out, can NYC not be affected?

glub glub glub

Wow, if housing goes down another 10%, more people will be underwater. That is truly ground breaking analysis.

I will add this. If housing goes up....fewer people will be underwater.

Oh, please. This is not going to happen.

"The Treasury () is denying this morning's talk that Fannie and Freddie are planning to engage in a massive mortgage forgiveness scheme as a way of bailing out the homeowner."

MORTGAGE FORGIVENESS, people. That's right. Just buy what you can't afford to buy and the tax payers are going to bail you out. :/

There will be no mortgage forgiveness from fannie/freddie. They might as well call off the elections and hand the keys to congress to the republicans if that happened. it will never, never happen.

what would they call the owners that bit off more than they could chew?

Too Dumb To Fail

the mortgage forgiveness chatter was such crap...good trade as spreads whipped around this morning

This would create class warfare and cost Obama the reelection (if he even still has a chance which I don't think he does). NFW.

uhhhhhhhhh..... I believe like the 99weekers, the ppl underwater at this point gonna get zero extensions... if you haven't figured it by now that you can't afford you home on a Cash Flow basis, you were too stupid to buy in the first place...

OH, and forget about symphaty for nycers... f'k they think we created this mess.. and whos' gonna bailout a $1MM mortgage... FLMAoz

Deutsche Bank has not been that accurate in their predictions. This time last year they said that HALF of all homeowners would be underwater by 2011 (see: http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-half-of-us-homeowners-underwater-by-2011-2009-8 ). But with 2011 around the corner, the underwater number stands at 23%

great catch President. Sounds like all our resident doomsayers - just wait till next year....

me thinks, the 50% prediction was made prior to the $8K tax credit, $1 trillion of Fed buys of mortgages and bail out Autos etc....

You have data, unnatural mkt forces come into play... then you say, "well that fking didn't work."

keep those little brains coming...

w67th, in his new kinder, genteler way of posting: I still like him. He is still correct.

You gotta stop.

too dumb to fail! that's rich

I like how folks think a QUARTER of americans UNDERWATER is not doomish. Thats the funniest part.

that matches the percentage who has gone to college...

so, don't go to college?

of course, swe, your numbers are exaggerated. we have approx. 62% home ownership rate. Of those, about 1/3rd have no mortgage on the home. of the 2/3 that have mortgages, approximately 25% are underwater. so if you do the math (.62*.67*.25) = 10.3% of households are underwater. Is this alarming - of course - but it is not new information. Nice to exaggerate the problem by 5X though.

meant exaggerate by 2.5X

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/23/real_estate/underwater_rates_rise/index.htm

This article is from February 2010 but it lists the number at 24%, not 10.3%.
Why include the the 1/3 that doesn't have a mortgage? If you are not into the banks for your home then you don't really factor into this.

printer, even if a quarter of the 10.3% is added to the inventory in the next two years, it doesn't look good for prices does it? Keep in mind that the 10.3% is expected to grow.

For the past couple of years I have regularly been checking the short sales and foreclosures in the very toniest sections of Miami Beach. Generally there is a page or two of listings -- mostly in the lower end price ranges. I checked again yesterday and there was a long list of foreclosures and 12 pages of short sales. A large percentage in the $2M plus range. This is more than I have ever seen in the past 3 years. Banks are just now getting around to getting some of this bad debt off their books. The courts are literally paralyzed in FL. The state is hiring and training mediators because the courts are frozen. The higher end distress is finally becoming apparent.

http://www.slideshare.net/scottsambucci/summer-webinar-2010

apt23 - can you supply link to page which shows those listings?

buyerbuyer: shortsales below. link to foreclosures on same web

http://idx.kevintomlinson.com/kt/listing/results/

more good news - nyc style:

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/nyc-delinquency-rate-continues-upward-as-distressed-properties-list-grows-according-to-trepp-data?source=patrick.net

printer, what a financial tool.

do you think 10% unemployment is 10% of 300mm ppl in the US?

remember, it took $5/gallon gas for 1 summer for all hell to break loose in Cali RE mkt. That probably amounted to less than .0005% of someone's take home pay, but I guess when someone is up to their eyeballz on a mortgage, heloc, 2 car loans, 4 education loans and gotta eat rice and beans.... that extra $100 in weekly gas makes think twice about paying the mortgage or buying groceries.

you also know all the GDP numbers are annualized?

apt23: "There will be no mortgage forgiveness from fannie/freddie. They might as well call off the elections and hand the keys to congress to the republicans if that happened. it will never, never happen."

It's beginning to happen:

"OBAMA ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR TARGETED FORECLOSURE-PREVENTION PROGRAMS TO HELP HOMEOWNERS STRUGGLING WITH UNEMPLOYMENT"

"Under the program, eligible borrowers must:

1. Be at least three months delinquent in their payments and have a reasonable likelihood of being able to resume repayment of their mortgage payments and related housing expenses within two years;
2. Have a mortgage property that is the principal residence of the borrower, and eligible borrowers may not own a second home;
3. Demonstrate a good payment record prior to the event that produced the reduction of income."

So let's see:
a) have a low paying job
b) let banks fool you into buying more home than you can afford
c) get laid off
d) have tax payers loan you money to pay off your mortgage, a loan which you may never repay, since you a: don't work, b: don't pay taxes on your non-existent salary.

"brotherhood from sea to shining sea" indeed....

http://portal.hud.gov/portal/page/portal/HUD/press/press_releases_media_advisories/2010/HUDNo.10-176

pulaski: even though I wrote mortgage forgiveness, what I usually harp on -- and mean-- is that they will not repeal the mortgage interest deduction (i believe the subject of that thread, no?)-- that will never, never happen. I am aware of the HAMP program which indeed is trying to broker deals to allow some roll back on principal with very little success. And of course, short sales are a back door version of principal reduction in non recourse states.

That said, I was watching CNBC yesterday when this news of the additional billions of homeowner support broke and my heart sunk. As a liberal democrat, I would like to plead with my govt, to stop artificial means of propping up the RE market. Perhaps, PERHAPS, some support was needed at the beginning to keep the entire economy from falling off a cliff but they must remove artificial support and allow market forces unwind the last of this bubble. The only question now is how much of the new billions will be siphoned off to fraud.