Very few new listings?

Yes, and it's not just the village, soho and tribeca. I've also observed this in Williamsburg, UWS, Brooklyn.

what's up with above? Anyone else care to comment? Supply levels in a desireable area is the most important factor in real estate. This thread s/b 100 comments strong already....

What can any of us say? I'm looking exclusively on the UWS, and the inventory is tiny and stale. Good apartments are still significantly overpriced and then being snapped up like hotcakes. As long as sellers can overprice and get away with it in this environment, they will. I'm not going to get caught up in the lunacy of spending way too much. Will continue to rent until increased inventory creates lower prices.

shhhhhhh, don't say stuff like this on streeteasy. Folks like stevejhx and w67th will come out of the bush and insist the market is crashing and that none of you are real buyers.

A better question is why, given the # of openhouses (huge) and amount of shadow inventory (huge) is why isn't there real depth and breadth to new listings?

My take:
1) Too many people chasing the same thing, e.g. 3br2b or at least 2b/2b, good condition, good school district, under $1k/ft. Reasonable mtce. Okay views & light.
2) Go outside those parameters, e.g. charmless new-build 1b1b asking >$1k/ft or wreck or whatever - huge inventory.

Addendum: or there are significant impediments for the average person if they find deals (lack of financing).

Im going to show u guys something..market wide for Manhattan

http://dev.urbandigs.com/chart.php?k=1fd57087a2a93c11eb31990fe0909b0d

It should work..although we are still few days from launch.

This shows you off market vs active inventory trends for the past 1QTR...The negative correlation is clear. Check out right after Labor Day..We all know active inventory spiked up, but where is that inventory coming from? Aha! Its coming from OFF MKT inventory..its coming from listings that were active, didnt sell and were taken OFF MKT for whatever reason, and now are coming back on market.

Its telling us that the spike in inventory is more a function of listings that were once on the market, and less a function of what we would consider brand new listings...now think about it from a buyers perspective. Your watching the markets closely, you know your target markets inventory, you see inventory levels rise, but you dont see that many new products. Rather, the inventory rise is comprised more of the stuff that you saw already and likely passed over for whatever reason. This is leading people to feel that there are "very few new listings" coming to market. That is because, its true! Most of the stuff is inventory that was Active --> taken off market --> put Back on Market..

The data doesnt lie and our new system will let you track the movement of Manhattan inventory with confidence. I just want the project finished already! ARGH!!!

"the spike in inventory is more a function of listings that were once on the market, and less a function of what we would consider brand new listings."...so what does that mean about the market?

Taken alone, that would seem to imply a weak market for sellers, and opportunity for buyers to negotiate a good deal, but buyers all seem to say that sellers are not willing to negotiate much.

It's a very good point, UD. You say better what I was trying to say about UWS TH listings, which I watch closely and how much pricing on the RSB buildings affect rest of UWS. Stuff that's been passed over, and continues to be passed over - #1 reason being asking price. To have an impact on the rest of the market (actual new "new" listings), the asking price of those old "new" listings would have to decrease substantially.

it tells me there is not much of any urgency, not on the buy side (lack of new/well priced products that peak interest) and not on sell side (existing inventory + new listings that do come on)...it seems after the positive quarterly reports and very active early 2010 we had, sellers expect better bids to come in and buyers simply aren't chasing unless there is a reason to chase for a great product that is priced right; which there are few of. Thats what I see anyway both in the field and from the data

Where is all the shadow inventory? Everything I had on my serious watchlist went into contract within the last two weeks.

What made everyone expect a surge in "new" inventory, why? I think those that wanted to sell jumped on the bandwagon January-June. We just had a normal seasonality effect, if it did not sell by July take it off, enjoy the summer and re-list after Labor Day. For a SURGE of new listings we would have needed some sort of cataclysmic event to re-up the fear trade, didn't happen. (I was waiting)

One thing that does make Manhattan different is the wealth of most buyers and the chips they have in the game(co-op buyers.) Without that Big Event,owners(most) even if they overpaid in 2007-2008 will more than likely suck it up. At least most of them, as long as "they" can make the monthly nut. I have closed on 3 apartments in the last month where the seller is taking a hit, not a life changing hit...but a hit none the less. In one case it was to move to the burbs, in another it was a trade up to a large loft in the same hood, the only desperation was to move on with their life. I think most of the pain trades, fear based trades happened in early 2009.

I still think we see prices move down generally speaking, but not sure if we will see any fireworks.I get all the bear arguments, for the most part I am a bear, just not smart enough to figure out how this all plays out in the short term, 1-3 years.

Enjoy your evening, my wife thinks I'm crazy typing away as I get ready to leave for dinner in Montclair. So these thoughts are not complete.

Keith (Broker)

Shadow as in the huge overhang at Rushmore, Aldyn, Stuy/PCV units, and all the new-devs-conversions in the last 2 years.

Keith: there is a surge in inventory, no? Isn't that what the bears are harping on about? There is a surge in inventory, just not meaningful inventory vis-a-vis the buyers on the board and the ones I know IRL.

For example, if I were a broker, I would have quite a few buyers looking to buy a Classic 7, on prime-ish UWS for 1.5ishm, great condition. If there were a ton of listings in this category, then that would be meaningful inventory.

The patience of major developers with big projects seems in many cases to be never ending....at least in wmburg.

Digs, f*ucking awesome! I love it!

lol..gr8 to hear..made good progress today and should be ready soon.

Looking in the UWS and Park Slope for a 1 or 2 BR coop. Have about 30 buildings saved on SE. One year ago, a typical coop building on my list had 4-5 listings. Now, almost without exception, there are generally none. If there is one, it is usually a ground floor doctor's office conversion. Anecdotal but I think representative. It seems sellers are waiting, and can afford to do so.

I have a Brooklyn buyer with some very impressive spreadsheets going back over a year, tracking price movements, time on market etc...Been doing due diligence for over a month on one particular property with some "issues." I asked him yesterday if he has seen any downward moves on price in the dozen, mostly new developments he follows; nothing meaningful, look at 500 4th ave, it puzzles me. You are right on the money buyerbuyer.

Hang in there sjtmd!Next stop is Winter 2011....

During the bubble years there was a whole lot of activity, those that bought pre-bubble taking advantage of a hot sellers market, then in many cases upgrading, new buyers snapping up what ever they could get their hands on as they participated in the mindless frenzy for Manhattan real estate and those pesky foreign buyers hammering the new condo market with king euro...quite frothy. Then Lehman. Then it would appear (at least for now) that the winter/spring of 2009 saw the fear trade take effect as sellers dumped and the fearless bought and as of NOW, that was the bottom.(See west81st thread on this topic, west67th launch grenades now.)

So now the dust for the most part has settled and for lack of a better word we are in a fairly stable place and if you were waiting for the other shoe to drop...you are still waiting and frustrated. That said the number of transactions taking place is quite tepid, so there is quite a bit of(shitty) inventory sitting and waiting for something to happen(seller gets real or gives up, depends on their circumstances.) But what will it take to get holders of choice cuts of property to suddenly all want to sell? And at an appealing price? If you got good digs and haven't lost your job, got through the fear of the last two years-you are probably staying put. So again without a cataclysmic event, what will be the trigger for an implosion of price and explosion of inventory?

Either way I think we are only at the second act, there is still a whole lot of story left-I just don't know how it's going to end. Shakespearian or Spielberg?

Keith
http://theburkhardtgroup.com/agents_details.php?agent_ID=7619

Word on the street: I am being told by many brokers I meet at closings or showings that they are slow open houses are dead. I am hearing the same thing from Title closers and lawyers, though the last two weeks things seem to be more active. I am still chugging along, have two contracts out that should be signed next week. Had 3 closings over the past month and have two more this month. I am also working with a couple of new clients. Take this with a grain of salt.

Digs: Looks awesome and I really look forward to having this data at my fingertips. It will certainly put some meat where there has only been sizzle. I am more of a philosophical type but there is something beautiful about clean numbers. Best of luck with the launch!

digs, do you have the data to tell us what % of buyers involved in a transaction already had a current NY address from 2005 - 2008? Keith hit on a point I've been thinking about for a while. How much of the volume from the boom years was New Yorkers trading up?

I agree that there are few new listings of interest - in my case, I'm looking at apartments in the UES and UWS. For a long term purchase, I find much lacking in the vast majority of apartments that I've seen - I can not visualize living in these apartments for many years. Somehow I can settle for much less in a rental apartment where I have the option to leave after the term of the lease expires. I wonder if it is the quality of the inventory for sale or is it that your money buys so little here.

I try to look past how the apartment was renovated to see the actual space (the size of the rooms, the apartment layout, how many windows, etc.). But I have to take renovations into account since sellers do. I found in many cases if someone has spent alot of time and money on renovations, they want to be fully reimbursed for their costs. Sellers often do not seem to accept that buyers may not love everything that they have done to an apartment and will need money themselves to make some changes (and can not pay for renovating costs of both the seller and the buyer). In other apartments, renovations are often poorly done or not well thought out and it is not as if I am some renovation expert but it is obvious. Yet these apartments are still priced at market rates or higher, even if renovation projects were partially done such as replacing floors in a dining room/living room but leaving old floors in the bedrooom area. Again, I wonder how little your money buys here.

juice - no..but I think that is something SE can do with their db of names and units they bought/sold/bought...would be interesting

Jazzman: I track this information on the UWS for 3br+ prewar apts & THs south of 96th-ish. Ever since ACRIS has recorded transfers for co-ops. With few exceptions, sellers do so because they move, divorce, die, downsize or other pivotal event. Relatively few have sold (yet) because they are in dire financial straits. In fact, if I had to sit and write it down, I could probably tell you which have sold for that reason. In addition, the buyer pool seems to be composed of financially sound folk. Deep family $, people trading up with a large gain from previous place (I look up their previous NYC address if any), huge-bonus-or-sold-my-biz-or-showbizzy people.

We haven't reached the turning point of distressed sales, demographic inflection, etc.

As for myself, I would have done better if I had kept renting since my last sale in '05. There are definitely better deals to be had now, both renting & buying. But then, I would have had to live in a "lesser" place in the interim.

rlmnyc
about 20 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse What can any of us say? I'm looking exclusively on the UWS, and the inventory is tiny and stale. Good apartments are still significantly overpriced and then being snapped up like hotcakes. As long as sellers can overprice and get away with it in this environment, they will. I'm not going to get caught up in the lunacy of spending way too much. Will continue to rent until increased inventory creates lower prices.

how does this make sense? "good apartments are still significantly overpriced and then being snapped up like hotcakes"

how are they overpriced then?

Jim, I realize that you're more likely to decry potential buyers like me as unrealistic. However, much as on ebay, buyers allow themselves to be caught up in the thrill of the chase and wind up spending significantly more money than they had originally intended. If there is one product and ten irrational buyers, the price is going to skyrocket. That's what I meant by my comment. I'm assuming you're going to insult me now, so I'll head you off at the pass. Maybe I'll become so disenchanted with Manhattan prices that I'll move to Brooklyn or, gasp, New Jersey. Only time will tell.

On the other hand, prices in the suburbs are falling. There's a big spread between those markets right now and if people take advantage of this spread, prices in the city will fall too. Of course it might be the case that this spread is here to stay as more people prefer to live in the city.

Jim: what most frustrated buyers (and I think rlmnyc) mean by "overpriced" is that the price is not something that makes sense from a historical buy-rent ratio. But that is not IMO the same thing as overpricing from the market point of view. We have a market for 3brm+ & TH properties on the UWS and elsewhere in most of NYC where even if something is overpriced by the buy-rent ratio metric that it is simultaneously "correctly priced" from the POV of people with deeper-than-ordinary pockets. Rlm: with all respect, I don't know that the latter is irrational. They just have more $.

10023, you may very well be right. I never professed to understand the intricacies of the market, and I don't have deeper-than-ordinary pockets. I just don't want to throw away money when it makes more sense in my particular case to wait and see.

im not going to insult you. too me, if apartments are being sold quickly, more than likely they are underpriced, not over. there is a big difference between what people want and what they can afford.

Can a significantly overpriced apartment get snapped up like a hotcake?

Sure, just look at Miami condos in 2005. Frantic buyers stood in line overnight to snap up a desirable condo at ridiculous (compared to fundamentals) price... Market can be quite irrational. But not forever.

except that here you have very limited inventory (as always), and very high demand.

I take issue with "as always" - this was not true even in the latter half of the 90s.

W67, $1500 psf - you are frightening me with that number.

Ali, yes, it is a holiday weekend so maybe less going on.