UD's Data Mine--Comments

Assuming the last puke was caused by rampant fear combined with a lack of available financing, what's going to cause the next one?

Personally I think the charts only tell part of the story. What I have seen happen as a result of our last market correction is a gravitation toward prime properties and neighborhoods that might be less susceptible to market flux. Put up a solid offering where location, condition, and price fit the expectations of the market and it's usually gone within a couple of weeks.

Wbottom - agree. The one number that really struck me is how pending sales are lower now than they were a year ago, in the middle of the financial crisis.

This is easy to explain thoth, the product was better and the sellers were considerably more anxious.

Spin: Except you could argue that the buyers were in an even greater panic than sellers.

thoth in times of housing stress, buyers just keep renting but some sellers HAVE to sell for whatever reason. They need the money(divorce,death,debt etc). Buyers just keep renting and feel more empowered to just sit and wait hoping for more downside.

thoth - yea got into a few discussions about that. But thik about it this way. In 2009, we had a delayed seasonality..I discussed this on UD when it happened. Due to the adjustment ongoing at height of the crisis, our usually hot months of JAN-MAY, were dead for 3-4 months. In fact volume in general was dead for 6-7 months or so since Sept 2008 - April 2009. We started to see action return around March April 2009 or so..and it was slow to start, and progressively improved. So 2009 was a strange year, pushing back seasonality about 3-4 months due to the adjustment. And the adjustment itself played a role in demand - as people took time to gain confidence and they went a bit nuts in early 2010. So, fast forward. You have a summer of 2009 that was active due to nothing happening in early 2009 and you have a summer of 2010 that was progressively slow after a very active early 2010.

In this light, its not so surprising to see levels today lower than levels this time last year

Are you serious thoth, or on vodka this morning?

I am seeing what spin says, if it makes sense on all points it sells. But 2009, June thru December was quite surprising. Sure the sellers were anxious...but the buyers were scared to death, had to have big boots to b pulling the trigger early 2009. But come June momentum picked up at a surprising pace considering what we had just been through.

exactly, and that is what data shows..a big rise up in pending and it then sustained itself for a few months in late 2009, before rising again in early 2010. Data doesnt lie. I think now we are in the dull part of the pending sales curve, that resulted from a very slow summer after a very active bonus season. Im already seeing Broker Updates table tick UP for contracts signed, and that leads the pending sales metric by about a month or 2. As time goes on, I expect to see pending tick back up, if anything, due to the dull summer data ultimately going out of the back end of the pending sales measurement.

UD: First congrats on getting the site up. Well done.

As I read your last post, I see that you account for outside factors(active bonus season) for the sales uptick early in the year but make no reference to anything other than data patterns for the expected upcoming uptick. From all I see sentiment re the banks has changed pretty drastically from earlier in the year when Goldman was making trading profits every day and most (not all) news pieces are projecting lower bonuses, even prior to the letter to B of A this week on the mortgages.

Spin: see KB and Malthus's responses.

I agree with something SteveF said. Wasn't sure that could happen and credit where it is due.

UD: As always, thanks for the info and comments. I always learn something new from your posts. And Congratulations on the new site!

Thx guys.>

Malthus - well I have a real time broker status updates tool that I can see the changing manhattan market daily. The tick up already happened. But because of how pending sales is designed, it may take another 3-4 weeks to start to show..I think! Honestly, since I have been confident that all data integrity issues were properly adapted to in our new systems (about July), all I have seen is progressive decline in contracts signed...This is the first 1 month period where the Broker Updates box is showing a tick UP. Its around 660 contracts signed the last 30 days now, it was at 550 levels a month ago. So, I know there is a bit more action in the most real time of our tools, but Im waiting for it to show in pending sales metric

Oh look, aboutready reposted streeteasy topics on brick underground.