I see prices going up

I'm feeling the probability has increased for modestly(low single digit) declines.

dwell, I'm just not feeling it. Crazy low interest rates are certainly supportive, but my sense is that all they are doing is blowing some air back into a balloon that is leaking in a few places. I don't dispute that prices are (mostly) hovering a bit above the absolute lows of spring 2009, but to me it feels tenuous. And tenuous in the prices-barely-holding-on-at-this-level sense, not the poised-to-break-out-to-the-upside sense.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/23429-wsj-co-op-condo-sales-drop-off

Dwell, I think you're on to something.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/11/forum_pace_of_contracts_signed.html

Plus it's all resale inventory. Hardly any new development which should only get worse as the impact of the credit crisis of 2007-2009 builds. Eventually in the short term yoou run out of preople wanting to sell/move but demand keeps coming. New development always provided fresh supply. Not anymore kids.

Dwell: I don't think "prices" in the aggregate show any clear direction. In my sector, I can point to some very strong sales that suggest a big bounce from spring 2009; on the other hand, I can explain almost every one of them based on scarcity of the relevant product type and the impatience of buyers who had already waited a very long time for (a) the bubble craziness to stop; (b) the worst of the financial crisis to pass; and (c) the right apartment to come along.

When I look at more generic product (i.e. apartments that are perfectly nice, but you know another one just like it will come along next week), I see rough equilibrium after slight retreat from spring 2010, at levels that are still maybe 5-10% above the spring 2009 freeze.

That's just my two cents, and my perspective is much narrower than Noah's or SE's.

Alog the same lines, I can point to several apartments that sold in 2009 for bargain-basement prices either out of sellers' desperation, need to sell, or belief that the market was going to decline further.

In all of the big buildings we looked in, we could usually point to at least one "fire sale" from 2009 where the seller took significantly less than what other apartments were trading for. If you tie yourself to the lowest comp of 2009, you're probably in for a frustrating set of negotiations.

My sub-market is similar to West81st: prices seem to be up about 5-10% versus the worst of 2009, with sales around 2006 pricing.

It's a question of perspective. In the small sub-market I watch, I can "explain" every sale, so it's almost impossible for me to say what the trend is. There is huge resistance to paying '07/'08 peak prices, no-one's going to pay that easily. If an apt is in mint condition, has open light/views and is perceived as "rare", the buyers out there are comfortable paying '09 "bottom" prices plus 10+%. Hindsight is 20-20, but this fall has been kind to would-be '09 sellers who pulled their product off the market, and readied for a fall '10 sale.

If you want a deal relative to market, as always:
1) Estate sale
2) Wreck
3) Long-time owner who wants out, sometimes their brokers don't market well, and the owner gives the sale to the "building" broker (I think 255W84, 11E falls in this category).

Prices on studios and 1 BR down to flat, 2 BR and larger - slow, steady increase. Drek will need to be priced appropriately to sell.

"impatience of buyers who had already waited a very long time "

exactly

10023: Well said. That Alameda apartment will be a controversial comp. Condition wasn't bad enough explain it away, and the agent did a perfectly fine job of reaching the target audience. The monthlies are the unique negative: about twice what they would be in some comparable coops with better financials (e.g. Cornwall or Chester Court). Is it a useful comp? For that building, certainly. For the product class? I'm not sure. It's hard to normalize the data when one key parameter is so far out of whack.

FYI, dwell, this is the kind of building I envision (maybe incorrectly) when I think of what you're looking for - 71 east 77th.

Thanks everyone. Each of you has made very good points. Well done!!

nyc10023: yes, that's my desired area, but, too close to Lenox Hill Hosp for me. Looking at prices there, I noticed apt 10B:
On 11/30/2004, #10B sold for $675,000
On 6/30/2008, #10B sold for $1,500,000
I hope there were extensive renos.

Notwithstanding your comp nyc10023, I guess I was assuming that 2009 prices would be the new base, but I'm seeing a mix, with many units returning to 2006-7 prices.

It's a very mixed bag. Each unit is a different story.

Yes, I see units where asking prices have come down.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/403990-coop-11-east-86th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york
11 East 86th Street #2C
04/10/2009 Listed by Corcoran at $2,295,000.
07/30/2009 Listing is no longer available.
09/04/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
11/21/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $1,995,000.
06/03/2010 Price decreased by 7% to $1,850,000.
10/28/2010 Listing entered contract.

11 East 86th Street #9C (a wreck for nearly $2mm: Quel bargain! We'll see what it closes at)
ESTATE condition
06/10/2010 Listed by Fox Residential Group at $1,950,000.
10/20/2010 Listing entered contract.

Perhaps I'm feeling that prices & values are still simply over inflated, like a million bucks is chump change; maybe it is.

Where's spunky?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/553163-coop-71-east-77th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

Another rant:

How can they call this 1100 sf apt a 2 bdrm??
http://img.streeteasy.com/nyc/attachment/show/471038.jpg

I could barely fit my tooshie in what they deem to be the "2nd bdrm"!! That "2nd bdrm" is the dining room!!!

It is a lovely apt, but it's more like a 'junior 2' than a true 2 bdrm

oops! I guess it is a bdrm since it has a bath. But, it's a very tight 2 bdrm.
I wouldn't pay over a million for this. I think an accurate value for this place is betwn $700K-$800K.

Hey stevie!!

No room for my shoes in this place.

Thxs dwell. I needed a good laugh!

Whu? My shoes or my toosh?

>>oops! I guess it is a bdrm since it has a bath.<<

Yeah, but so do maid's rooms...

Learned early to never laugh at a woman's toosh, quickly followed with not to laugh at a woman's shoes.

But nyc re going up!!!!!!! Thatz fking hilarious!!!!!

Sorry, dwell, for having such small RE aspirations for you! Would be wonderful to have a C6 - I can just see it. The 2nd room would be storage for shoes & clothes & bags :)

BTW, 71E77 is Ina Garten's pied-a-(bum), with great affection.

nyc10023,
It really is a lovely place, sorry I got cheeky ;)

W67,
I wish I could LMFAO, then I could fit in dat room ;0

dwell,
we r looking in the same hood for slightly similar places. I'm looking 3 bedroom with sep. dining room. I take a 2 if the size is right. When I see places like 71 E77 I feel like Rip Van Winkle. Like I was sleeping and when I woke everything changed so dramaticly that it was unrecognizable.

Over 1 million for this place?
How ez do people aquire a million dollars? Oh, Oh...I found an extra million in my pants pocket.

Easy. When you're Ina and have a gazillion dollars.