Economy Picks Up 151,000 Jobs

"And Now The Bad Jobs News: There Was A Big Jump In The Duration Of Unemployment"

"Some bad news:

* The average duration of unemployment from 33.3 weeks to 33.9, reversing gains (we had been at 33.6 in August).
* Those unemployed 27 weeks or longer jumped form 41.7% of the unemployed pool to 41.8%.
* Those unemployed 15 weeks or longer jumped from 57.5% of the unemployed to 58.8%.
* Not surprisingly, the short-end dropped big.

So what this all means is the structural unemployment problem -- finding jobs for the people most out of the workforce -- are still having a heckofa time finding jobs, and it may be getting worse."

http://www.businessinsider.com/october-duration-of-unemployment-2010-11

“Our expectation is we are going to get a positive number on a sustained basis for the next year or two,” Mr. Silvia said.

He expected to see about 100,000 to 150,000 private payroll jobs added on average per month in the first half of the year, which would be just barely enough to keep up with new people entering the labor force.

He said the economy was at a point where to increase output, businesses have to add workers, not just make them more productive or add hours.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/06/business/economy/06jobs.html?_r=1&hp

Not sure that there's a solid argument to be made that it's getting worse. It's kind of the same story we've been hearing for months now: people who have been out of the workforce for a while are having a hell of a time getting back in. If you're newly on the job market, your skills are less likely to be out-of-date and you have a much better chance of finding a job. Hiring could pick up quite a bit before those poor long-term unemployed folks find jobs.

1. the 151,000 # might be misleading because the govt adds non-existent jobs under a "birth-death" index
2. last spring the govt erased about 1,000,000 jobs birthed into the 2009 labor statistics
3. more significant is today's WSJ report that labor reoductivity has fallen from 6.3% to 2.5%
4. that decline always precedes increased hiring
5. even more important is the election's efeect on Obama's staggeringly harmfu; anti-business policies
6. the 2008 election of Obie and the D's triggered a Dec-Jan loss of 2.5 million jobs
7. small businesses recently reported that 92% were not planning on hiring
8. small business is th4e engine of job creation in America, and has been missing all year
9. the election of the Republican veto will hopefully encourage some of those 92% to start growing again

6. so the reason for the huge layoffs from dec '08 onwards was because obama was elected?
9. small business will grow because of republican congresssmen?

you intend this to be sarcastic, i hope.

The news is definitely positive. One can hope that trend of job losses in the public sector and added jobs in the private sector continues. But the strength of the trajectory isn't much. You need 150kish just to absorb new entrants. And like was mentioned before, you have to make sure there aren't games with the B/D adjustments.

Also, in the last 2 years of little to no job growth we have added more than 2 million new workers (entrants) without adding the jobs for them (FYI, someone who has never found a first job is not counted as "unemployed").

So, assuming these are not B/D adjustment jobs, 150k-200k increase per month is still not sufficient to make an appreciable dent in the unemployment %.

More to the point, national employment is less correlated to Wall Street income and NYC real estate than ever, as has been pointed to over and over by the bulls on this board. In this environment financial, monetary and regulatory policy are what will matter.

after 2 years of obama--job growth reemerges

it's obama's fault

"6. the 2008 election of Obie and the D's triggered a Dec-Jan loss of 2.5 million jobs"

In other news the Dow is up over 40% since Obama's election. More useless conclusions at 11.

At this rate of job growth, we should get to full employment sometime around 2030.

Malthus:

1. the Dow is up because it anticipated the Republican's electoral victory
2. that anticipation might also partly explain October's job growth

the jobs were primarily in retail (early holiday ramp up), bars and restaurants, and temp hiring. in a normal hiring cycle the temp hiring would be a precursor to hiring full-time employees, but we haven't seen that this time. i'm glad people feel good about going out to eat again, i don't want my favorite restaurants to close, and every job helps at least somewhat, but this still is not a stellar result. better, yes, but not good.

So assuming, as you say, that the Dow is a sentient being that can "anticipate" things, this anticipation began in March of 2008? Is the dollar also capable of such feelings? How does it feel about the republican house victory?

And shed some more of your wisdom about business hiring please. Businesses make hiring decisions not on needs or anticipated growth in sales but on anticipated electoral outcomes? Fascinating. Ever actually been in business?

The "small businesses are the engine of job creation" notion is not supported by data from the past two recessions; it's more sacred cow belief than reality.

malthus...didnt you get the message? the democrats, by controlling congress from 2006-2008 were responsible for the recession and subsequent job loss. the fact that we had a republican president from 2000 - 2008 and a republican congress from 2002-2006 does not matter in this equation.
The increase in job growth, albeit not a great one, and the 70% percent increase in the stock market over the past year and a half, is all because of the anticipation that republicans would be back in power. For you see, the republicans are so good at what they do, that they dont even have to set any policy. Just the mere mention that they might be roaming the halls of congress, makes employers all giggly and warm inside, and they automatically press the red "hire" button. very similar to the staples "easy" button. And dont even get me started on the stock market. Just mention the word republican on cnbc, and the stock market jumps 10%. The republicans can do no wrong.

just to add, i dont support the democrats. i think republicans and democrats are all alike. that being complete shit!!

government increased under bush, government increased under obama. same garbage. the american people are really dumb!! bring on the tea party!!! yahoo!!!!

and just to add to that. the tea party is a complete joke. but i do hope they capture the presidency and congress in 2012. it will give me an excuse to move to new zealand and live the quite life of a sheep hearder.

easy on the sheep, please

"the democrats, by controlling congress from 2006-2008 were responsible for the recession and subsequent job loss."

Are you actually trying to absolve Barney Frank of his role in this mess?

Not only temporary jobs, but 151,000 isn't even enough to keep up with the growth in the population. Is it better than nothing? Yes. Is it good enough? Yes. Will QEII, III, IV, Jr., or whatever, help?

No. It may, in fact, make it worse, by causing asset bubbles in commodities, gold, and stocks. Worse, retail money is FLOODING INTO BOND FUNDS.

Stupid, stupid, stupid: when interest rates eventually go up - as they will - people will be wiped out (again!) because they don't understand the risk of principal loss in bond funds.

Not good. (And every trader I've talked to or seen on the TV agrees: this QE run-up is not going to end pretty.)

Sorry, steveF: it's just not real.

Is it good enough? Yes.

Oops! Is it good enough?

NO.

That's what I get for listening to KTU, working, and blogging all at the same time. :0

god help the 2 people who read Steve's blog.

"Are you actually trying to absolve Barney Frank of his role in this mess?"

he's an idiot. but he is by far not the only person responsible for this. you cant control the presidency and congress, and than blame the whole thing on one democrat. thats just silly.

Nice 151k pickup. Watch out below, 2,000,000 about to lose extended unemployment in the next 3 months! F'k if this keeps up we'll end up canceling QE2! Mkt up mkt down...... It's tough to be in Vegas if you are addicted to gambling.

"6. the 2008 election of Obie and the D's triggered a Dec-Jan loss of 2.5 million jobs"

Your a complete idiot. SO none of those jobs would have been lossed if McCain won?

Actually, start ups are the "engine" of job creation. Not small businesses.

Yep, if the private sector by some miracle steadily increases hiring over the next two months, that would be extremely bullish.
(as most companies will look to avoid the added expense of immediate days off (holidays) and bonuses.)

"6. the 2008 election of Obie and the D's triggered a Dec-Jan loss of 2.5 million jobs"

Your a complete idiot. SO none of those jobs would have been lossed if McCain won?

i would argue that even more jobs would have been lost. think what you will about the stimulus, but it did create/keep a lot of jobs. what would have been McCains policy? more tax cuts?

i find it funny that some of the same people on here who argue that RE takes time to go through it downward cycle, believe that the economic downturn could have somehow been suddenly reversed if we had a different administration in the white house. i dont care who was in charge, this thing was going to be bad.

151,000. Not bad, Only 10,000,000 more to go...

$200 milion a day for obama's ego. Think of all the schools that could be built. You know, for the children, for the children..
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/obama-visit-critised-for-overthetop-spending/134409-2.html

julialg - that $200mm/day figure has been thoroughly discredited - it is more like $20mm/day. and as much as you know how I feel about Obama, a trip to a militarily strategic and economically important nation like India is very much w/in the bounds of what he should be doing as POTUS.

but why should anyone check facts??? thats not what the GOP is all about. it costs 190 million per day to operate the war in afghanistan, and he thinks it will cost about the same to send obama to india for a few days? perhaps a congressman should know some of this information before opening his mouth.

When the Brits pm visited us, he flew commercial. I don't think the regime's leader should do that. But, all the 'guests' , plus occupying an entire 5 star hotel, plus the first lady's Spain's redux. Why can't the regime stay in our embassies???

i wonder if these same questions were asked when other presidents travelled?

As long as a roof over you head and the taste of food is unimportant to you...all is well.

these are brilliant fucking questions. who cares? lets all bash obama. he clearly is at the root of all of our problems. if it weren't for obama....

come julia....fill in the blank. go for it. bash and blame away.

now that it's the republican/democrat love fest time I'm sure the next two years will be productive.

And, Do you really believe the trip will cost 'only' $20 million a day? No, way.. The rolling stones and their crew costs that. Also ekartash,
We are still in iraq and Afghanistan. Plus, GITMO is still creating enemies throughout the muslim lands. Why aren't you progressives screaming bloody hell?

ekartash
5 minutes ago
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"i wonder if these same questions were asked when other presidents travelled?"

I couldn't stand bush. A big government guy. But that's all you progressives got.... bush,cheney,bush,cheney.. Pathetic.

so let me get this straight.... bush goes into afghanistan, iraq. creates gitmo.. obama doesnt end the wars (although we are getting out of iraq), and close gitmo, so than its all his fault, and we must go back to republican rule?

we have a recession. gdp declines by almost 4% in bush's final quarter. the country loses almost 700k jobs in his last month. obama becomes president. 2 years later we are in the midst of a recovery. but its not going fast enough. boom, we must bring back the same people who got us into this mess in the first place.

yes yes, all of this makes sense.

if the knicks dont win the championship this year, they should bring back Isiah Thomas. yes he is largely to blame for why the knicks have sucked for so long, but hey, the new guy had two years, and he didnt win. back to the messy mass we go.

Nobody is defending bush or the pelosi congress(2006). And if you put 5 trillion into the economy,(stimulus and fed actions) the economy will 'recover' until the day of debt reckoning.

julialarge, you are a fking bieeeeytch. Do you know what it costs to run an aircraft carrier for a day? Do you even understand that you are a finnish fking racist? -ooohh what a play on words-

Go rub the numbbin until you feel better, you fking azzhole.

i am not sure what else they could have done. but this debt thing we are all concerned about right now, perhaps people should have been talking about this over the past 10 years. look at income and consumption numbers during bush years. i make 30k a year, but i bought a brand new house and drive a lexus. ipods, clothes, why not? thats what the credit cards are for. i wonder what the economy would have looked like from 2000 - 2008 if we had strict policies on loans and mortgages? what would have been the driving force? wars?

6 minutes ago
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"so let me get this straight.... bush goes into afghanistan, iraq. creates gitmo.. obama doesnt end the wars (although we are getting out of iraq), and close gitmo, so than its all his fault, and we must go back to republican rule?"

The 'one', however said he would get us out of iraq and Afghanistan. Plus, close Gitmo day 1. Last I checked, we are still in iraq, afghanistan is getting much worse and GITMO still open day730. Why aren't you progressives screaming bloody hell.

because our choices in the election are between nimrod A and nimrod B. i am not defending obama for things he promised to do, but hasnt. but give him some praise. you try rescuing a sinking ship. especially when the other party wants in no way to help.

"Do you know what it costs to run an aircraft carrier for a day?" Why can't the regime stay in the embassies? And you're right 67," We are all racist now." If you reject incompetence you're a racist.

a large portion of this country is racist. these people still cant stomach the fact that we have a black president. they would rather vote against their own economic interest than have a black guy be in charge.

Last week he was antibusiness and a socialist. This week he is blamed for spending money to bring a bunch of American CEOs to India to shill pharmaceuticals and power plants. Its all so confusing. Better not to ask questions when getting the talking points.

If you don't think a HUGE HUGE % of teabaggers arent' right nut racists then I can't help you. As much as a great majority of americans welcomed a minority president, there is a vocal group of minority that wont' say it, but their race based hate is a huge huge function of their dislike of current policy.

health care for all, reigning in of financial idiots..... oh where or where is there a problem in this?

He is still antibusiness and a socialist, plus incompetent.

Don't be confused malthus.. It's all so obvious just wake up.

GO LIVE IN ALABAMA JULIALARGE.... you'd be welcomed there except for the fact you are fking a finnish guy out of wedlock, and you like Indian Food and the fact you dress like a whore on a 400lb body... but otherwise, you'll fit right in. email me your address, I'm sure there is a chinatown bus to Alabama for $20, I'LL PAY!

"if you don't think a HUGE HUGE % of teabaggers arent' right nut racists then I can't help you. " I told you 67. 'we are ALL racists now"

yeah, where'd you go to school to fk a finnish guy for free? DeVry?

pssss... pssss... you don't need a degree to fk for free.... maybe your mama could teach you about getting paid to do that ....

-bam!- oh shit julia... i got free time today and you are just the ninny to pick on...... bring it... oh btw, heavy duty lady pads on sale at Walgreens today!

"He is still antibusiness and a socialist, plus incompetent."

why, because glen back said so?

i would like to know what makes him more socialist than previous presidents.

But NYC is so much more fun 67. Plus, I get to observe all the progressives wallow in their hypocrisy. Their faux elitism and limited wit is sort of thrilling to watch. Sorry, i like being in enemy territory.

julia, there is no alligator hunting in nyc..... is all the "observing" fun in nyc worth not being able to hunt gators? It's gator season.... bnus it to Florida...

67, Sitting in a restaurant on the UWS listening to the progressives lament about the election;Much ,much more thrilling than shooting helpless animals.

"Why can't the regime stay in our embassies???"

Bed Bugs

if u get chased by a gator always run in a zig zag...theyre not fast that way

Can't wait to see their faces and hear their whining when the regime' leader is defeated. Think ecstasy 67... I love being in enemy territory. What's the fun and challenge to be with people who think just like you.

"Can't wait to see their faces and hear their whining when the regime' leader is defeated. Think ecstasy 67... I love being in enemy territory. What's the fun and challenge to be with people who think just like you.:

i hope that tea party grows and sara palin becomes their leader. imagine, her as president and tea party controlling congress. what a sweet day that will be. maybe they will allow hunting in manhattan.

" maybe they will allow hunting in manhattan." haha funny. Never thought of that.

it will be fantastic. it will be open season on anyone who is not a white christian. and if you have an education, and/or are caught reading, forget it. maybe they can bring back lynching. yes yes, we are moving in the right direction. i cant wait. maybe we can have a national glen beck day too. oh goody.

adios a mis amigos!

and remember, if you spend your country's money fighting wars overseas, you get to do a landing on an aircraft carrier. if you spend your country's money on something stupid like health care, you are a socialist. i love it!!!! i am so glad that common sense prevails.

"Actually, start ups are the "engine" of job creation. Not small businesses."

I was going to say this was one of the dumbest things every said... but alpo has said plenty of others worse.

If there are guns allowed more in the future then it pays to get your permits and things now to be prepared for that. Took me 9 months for the permit because I am born a US citizen and have no criminal or mental or violence history

Julialarge. It's been an hour. Your are still a fking idiot. If I wax banging you, I wouldn't put a ring on it. Think of the children.

If I wax banging you, I wouldn't put a ring on it. Think of the children.

?

HOw many people besides your wife do you bang?
Because we know your wife has been "touched" by "thousands". So maybe in fairness you should be cheating too.

columbiacounty
about 4 hours ago
stop ignoring this person
report abuse these are brilliant fucking questions. who cares? lets all bash obama. he clearly is at the root of all of our problems. if it weren't for obama.... come julia....fill in the blank. go for it. bash and blame away.

So your solution is ?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/11/obama’s-problem-simply-defined-it-was-the-banks.html

obama isn't even close to socialist. i don't know what he is, but at best i'd say he's a misguided follower of the chicago school (reagan, anyone?). multiplier effect indeed.

clearly there was zero possibility of anyone cleaning up this economy in two years. what this country has lacked for over a decade is a clear plan for infrastructure repair. the country, and every state, should have had a plan to address the embarrassing and dangerous state of our basic infrastructure. if it had, there would have been plenty of "shovel ready" projects that were not just pork that could have provided meaningful jobs and very much needed repairs. it takes years to plan infrastructure redesign, the fact that we had nothing on the table is just another thing that the bush era totally ignored in the age of waging war and decreasing taxes. no room for bridges and roads.

please repost, hard to read with all of html code