jobless claims fell sharply - that is real. the unemployment rate, by any measure, has remained at very high levels for a long period of time - that is, unf. real.
where's the conflict?
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Response by aboutready
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
i'd hardly say it's "nice!" when the number of ititial claims is still consistent with worsening conditions or, at best, no improvement.
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Response by steveF
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
yes but it's getting better right aboutready?
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Response by alanhart
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007
But it's NOT getting better. The rate of NEW additions to the pool of the unemployed has tapered down slightly, but the number of unemployed is not improving at all. Or, to quote the article that steveF thread-started here, relating to hiring, "Still, that's barely enough to keep up with population growth."
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Response by w67thstreet
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Fsteve. Hilarious! Double dip coming and he's looking at the wrong data again. Who cares about U when the causes of U is getting worse? Just look at Pulaski's post. as I predicted this is gonna be a wbottom.
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Response by aboutready
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
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thank you alan.
no, steve, if initial claims are still too high to result in a reduction in unemployment it's not getting better. it's getting worse more slowly.
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Response by steveF
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
The bigger-than-expected dropped was underscored by the four-week moving average of claims which fell to its lowest since just before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008 in the depths of the financial
"Jobless looks a little better than expected. The trend seems to be getting better, though certainly there's way too many as far as unemployed out there," said Jay Suskind, senior vice president at Duncan-Williams in Jersey City, N.J.
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Response by printer
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
AR - perhaps you know the answer to this question. Attached to every analysis of the labor situation is the line that 'we need 150k new jobs a month just to keep up w/population growth'. I haven't seen that number changed at all over the 2+ yrs of recesssion. Yet I would imagine that a large portion of workforce growth is due to immigration, and given the lack of opportunity here, I would guess that immigration (legal and illegal) has fallen substantially the past couple of years. Any thoughts?
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Response by steveF
almost 16 years ago
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MMMMM population growth....gotta luv population growth.
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Response by aboutready
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
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not this year, printer. last year and this year were huge years for young adults entering (or not if they couldn't find a job) college and/or the work force, will continue for the next few years. take a look at a birth rate chart. i picked a very good year to have a kid.
Buy now or be priced out forever!
Or, in the world of the real: http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp?fromYear=2010&toYear=2010
Or, in the world of the real, pre-methodology change:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
the spinster sisters
jobless claims fell sharply - that is real. the unemployment rate, by any measure, has remained at very high levels for a long period of time - that is, unf. real.
where's the conflict?
i'd hardly say it's "nice!" when the number of ititial claims is still consistent with worsening conditions or, at best, no improvement.
yes but it's getting better right aboutready?
But it's NOT getting better. The rate of NEW additions to the pool of the unemployed has tapered down slightly, but the number of unemployed is not improving at all. Or, to quote the article that steveF thread-started here, relating to hiring, "Still, that's barely enough to keep up with population growth."
Fsteve. Hilarious! Double dip coming and he's looking at the wrong data again. Who cares about U when the causes of U is getting worse? Just look at Pulaski's post. as I predicted this is gonna be a wbottom.
thank you alan.
no, steve, if initial claims are still too high to result in a reduction in unemployment it's not getting better. it's getting worse more slowly.
The bigger-than-expected dropped was underscored by the four-week moving average of claims which fell to its lowest since just before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008 in the depths of the financial
"Jobless looks a little better than expected. The trend seems to be getting better, though certainly there's way too many as far as unemployed out there," said Jay Suskind, senior vice president at Duncan-Williams in Jersey City, N.J.
AR - perhaps you know the answer to this question. Attached to every analysis of the labor situation is the line that 'we need 150k new jobs a month just to keep up w/population growth'. I haven't seen that number changed at all over the 2+ yrs of recesssion. Yet I would imagine that a large portion of workforce growth is due to immigration, and given the lack of opportunity here, I would guess that immigration (legal and illegal) has fallen substantially the past couple of years. Any thoughts?
MMMMM population growth....gotta luv population growth.
not this year, printer. last year and this year were huge years for young adults entering (or not if they couldn't find a job) college and/or the work force, will continue for the next few years. take a look at a birth rate chart. i picked a very good year to have a kid.