Case Shiller shows more price falls, nice!!!

Calculated Risk on Case-Shiller:

"Prices are now falling - and falling just about everywhere. And it appears there are more price declines coming (based on inventory levels and anecdotal reports). "

----------------------

now it would be interesting to see what the Obama admin does to try to prevent the inevitable (home prices falling to catch up with wage income). we will see.

I don't see that yet in Manhattan. If economy picks up next year and if wall street does decent, prices may hold or go up. Been waiting to buy but still cheaper to rent.

Yahoo! Common sense will prevail!

> Been waiting to buy but still cheaper to rent.

no doubt, it's smarter to rent at these prices still.

When is Streeteasy coming out with New York October condo prices? I thought they said by the end of November.

buyer/seller standoff is pretty interesting. i see so many apartments where the family is upgrading to a larger space. they are getting a great deal on the new, larger place. yet they refuse to come down in price to sell their old place!

The my shit don't smell syndrome, a quirky theory of economics.

What about the 'It smells like roses' theory of economics?

Is'nt that how we got here?

We will update tomorrow (afternoon).

wow streeteasy in my thread! remember once upon a time they asked me not to be called "admin"... as it was confusing for some lol lol

Wall Street is not doing well, and next year will be flat for most areas in finace. Hedge funds are still a rough ride, and the equity outlook is at best 5% increase in S&P. There will always be a few people who are well paid, but the #s show higher numbers of people on Wall St doing worse. But Manhattan is also heavily influenced by the rich of the world coming here to play/invest, after all it's a fun place and more stable than many other countries. On the slightly-rich (super-rich are immune) european side however, the EUR is and will continue to be under heavy pressure. Helicopter Ben is doing his best to deflate the USD (=more affordable for europeans), but PIIGS is in trouble, with the dominoes continuing to fall.

> Wall Street is not doing well, and next year will be flat for most areas in finace.

i'm ready for that!

LP1, do you think the recent investigations into insider trading at the nexus of hedge funds and financial consultants will put pressure on Wall Street practices? I've been curious since I read the Feds got wiretaps in.

Is it showing declines in NYC? I see a decrease of 0.1% for the year. Am I reading this wrong?

maly, it's not so much insider trading as increasing levels of regulation, weak overall economies, exposure to sovereign debt, low trading volumes, crap still on the balance sheets, and to a less immediate extent, a severe reduction in quality of standards in all aspects of banking from what it was even a decade ago. To answer your question, insider trading would cost pennies to a firm compared with holding sovereign debt of Spain.

only problem with this analysis is that Manhattan has not been acting like the aggregate Case Schiller. Been holding up fairly well.

do you think the recent investigations into insider trading...

imho wall street is more scared of wikileaks than of the SEC. they rarely pay big fines while always get away accepting no fault, amazing contradiction. the SEC is just for show imho.

I've known quite a few rule breakers who got fined. The fines were always way less than the profit they'd secured. Besides the Wall St of today (perhaps the whole country) is IBG-YBG

I was told on SE over a year ago my condo would be worth half of what I paid for it in late 2008 (which was 750psf 2br in a full service prime Manhattan bld)... then I was told we would definitely crash again in 2010, now I'm being told 2011... when that doesn't happen I guess I'll wait for 2012 or maybe 2013, how about 2014? Oh screw it, 2020? I'm so DOOOOOMED!

you bought in 2008 without knowing there was a bubble at all? or were you able to get a great discount?

"only problem with this analysis is that Manhattan has not been acting like the aggregate Case Schiller. Been holding up fairly well."

Only if we once again let the bulls redefine "holding up" to mean "still down considerably".
In the miller samuel numbers, every size apartment category is still down over 20%.

But, I guess in the new housing market, now down 40% is just like up!

What is the multiple for buying, vs. renting?

Example:

Rent a 2BR condo in a full service building in W-burg. $3800 MONTH.

Same condo sells for $750,000. Put down 10%, closing costs ( say 100k ).

Mortgage of $675,000 at a rate of 6% Monthly payment $4,046.97. Much of which is tax deductable for the first few years.

Taxes, CC and insurance roughly $1500.

Monthly payment $5,550. little chance of equity appreciation in the next 5 years.

A difference of approximately $1700 per month to be used for anything you wish.

Does it make sense to buy or rent?

I know this is just one example.

If anyone can beef up this analysis, thanks in advance!

$3800 MONTH in Wburg? WTF you're talking about! Most of my friends are paying in the low $2000's...
$3800 are for suckers like you who come from the UES and think they get a " bargain"...Pfff!

"In the miller samuel numbers, every size apartment category is still down over 20%."

If you look at the aggregate number (which I know you don't like to do) on a median sales basis we are down ~11% from peak Q2 2008 vs. Q3 2010

1) you won't get 90%ltv in wburg
2) 1500 is high considering that your building will likely have a 421a. therefore you shiodule xpect to pay nothign more than 50-80/month in taxes. full services CC's at teh 750 price is roughly 700-800. i woudl adjust your monthlies downward by 500-600
3) assuming 80LTV on a loan less than 729k and excellent credit and DTI and you are looking at a 4.75 (high end) rate for a DS payment of 2375.
4) also adjust your closing costs if new construction to include 5-6% in sales costs. so add 50K to your DP UNLESS you have a good attorney who get sponsor to pay this stuff.

and finally - agree with sledge....3800 is a VERY high rent to pay in brug right now. 3800 is reserved for at least 2 bed 2 bath (~1100-1200 sqft+terrace+full-service)...and even that number will prob get you one or two months free (so your net effective will be 3200+ or 3500+

closed on my wburg condo in oct. 2008. two weeks ago (in the midst of refi'ing) it appraised at my june 2008 contract price....granted, would have like some appreciation, but for us to make it through the worst 2 years any of us will see for teh next 20+ - principal intact and living in much better place and for roughly the same price as it woudl cost me to rent PRE-TAX - we are pretty pleased.