2011 Predictions: Who's got the balls?

I predict SteveF will continue to be 100% wrong for another year.

I think he is looking for a ballsy prediction somewhereelse. That's low hanging fruit.

ohh wonderful. Look who shows up. The bratty little kid that no one invites over. I have u on ignore swe.

right on malthus...let's make it a little interesting. I'll match up some of you guys with those "expert economists" out there anytime.

OK I'll bite.
Slow deteriorating market with closing price about 5-10% lower that today.
AS for my ball...I suspect them to still be present and accounted for but, producing slightly less testosterone...much like the RE market.

balls...at least for now

While we're on the topic of predictions...
LIC/Billyburg down 15% (same for Central Harlem)

> The bratty little kid that no one invites over.

You mean the bratty kid you keep inviting over. How many times you called me out, genius?
And I'm not even talking about when you called me a "c*nt".

> I have u on ignore swe.

Awesome. So you're going to bait me and ignore me? Nice, keep up the good troll work.

> I think he is looking for a ballsy prediction somewhereelse. That's low hanging fruit.

Notice he left his prediction unqualified. Cheap trick.

As in, "well, I clearly meant Manhattan..." "clearly meant a 2 bedroom". "Clearly meant prime".

Useless.

swe stop hijacking my threads....

Did I call u that? Well if I did then it was a mistake and under duress. Never liked that word but in the spirit of Christmas I offer an olive branch and wish you good health......

Now get the f'k off my thread! kidding :)

I predict Bank of America will go down and will crash the stock market.
Bernanke will be stopped by Republicans to save BOA but Feds will bail out some states from Bankrupcy.
There will be at least one successfull terror attack on US soil.

'There will be at least one successfull terror attack on US soil'

Please let it be an unordered pizza delivery...

This is the year that Fink beats the stomach.

qe2, qe3, qe4,......

"By this time next year: try finding a condo to buy for under 500k and you'll be one lucky individual."

There are plenty right now. It obviously depends on location, but $500k studios are certainly out there.

"LIC/Billyburg down 15% (same for Central Harlem)"

I can only really speak for Williamsburg, since I follow it rather closely (Harlem a bit too, but not enough to make a confident-enough call), but are you saying 15% off peak or from current prices? The latter just seems terribly unlikely at this point. Not nearly as much in the way of brand-new construction, while the admittedly large inventory that has been lingering and the uncompleted projects that are finally getting finished are actually selling/renting. The rents in particular are amazing. If I had to rent right now, I'd probably go back to Elizabeth St at this point. Obviously there could be a second leg down, and I've been waiting for it, so I'm as surprised as anyone. Always interesting to watch from the sidelines though.

The New York Giants will find a new and creative way to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles. Hmmm, not exactly ballsy.

How about: Carrying costs on new apartment purchases will remain roughly flat in real terms, as modestly lower prices are offset by rising interest rates plus other monthlies that outpace inflation.

( ) Bank of America will be Wikileak-ed, and will come close to collapse, but The Fed will rescue it.
( ) National unemployment rate will rise to 11%. (and no one will give a shit)
( ) NYC unemployment rate will say flat at current levels of 9%-9.5%
( ) The Fed will leave rates unchanged.

( ) NYC prime RE will loose 5% off current prices.
( ) Williamsburg, LIC, will loose 10% off current prices to get to $575-$600 psf.

( ) Apple at $500 by end of 2011.
( ) FBI will continue to shift focus back to investigating white-collar crime and away from terrorism.

( ) The Fed will be audited.

Happy New Year.

My prediction: we will all be on this board debating the same eternal questions. Some of those who are serious about buying will come out of their shells and buy, resulting in flat or modestly higher prices depending on location, size, etc. Those who are perfectly content with renting will continue to do so, even as rents rise 2-3%, above inflation. Incentives will not make a reappearance, at least not for the next few years. The stock market's general trend will be up; hiring will gather steam in the new year although the unemployment rate will remain elevated.

I think the first sentence was my prediction for last year, too.

Upper end of the RE market will stay steady at it's current (substantially down) level, supported by foreign buyers. Mid and lower end of market will have a slow sticky move lower as Fed stimulus starts to unwind and rates spike up, unemployment rates don't improve and compensation stalls. Plus muni default nervousness (which Fed will bail out) will stir fears of more taxes continuing to pressure mid/lower end of RE market.

Spring selling will be weak as Euro problems come to a head in April/May and dominate headlines and pressure stock markets. Even if China and other major countries come to the aid of Spain, fear and demand for austerity will pressure all markets into end of year. End of year -- US stocks, commodities and EEM up, RE market flat to down.

Higher interest rates.
NYC real estate market marks time and does nothing special
Stock market closes end of year lower than where it starts out.
Oil breaks $100 a barrel
We see some major municipalities default and this overshadows anything that occurs in the Euro-zone
We avoid double dip, GDP increases and unemployment improves but not as much as everyone would like
Obama poll numbers improve

How's that?

And of course inflation tips up(as calculated by the BLS)

bjw...good question
I think it could be off current asks (not closes).
I stand by my prediction...never afraid to make the long call.
It's the old story...what will come to save the day?
the 90's had the tech boom
the 00's had Banking and RE
the 10's has................................silly bands???

Good point, The bears will regret and curse out those that bought at 2008 discounted prices.

The bond market bull is DEAD. Inflation is in. RE has bottomed.

Civil unrest. See Greece, France, Ireland, England, etc for examples of things that could potentially start happening here in 2011.

I see immense pressure on the dollar as our deficits balloon in the new year. China will make more noise about replacing the dollar as the currency of reference, but meanwhile, all commodities will rise. A good year for the stock market, but not for main street; as a result, New York's outlook remain muddled (poor outlook for the poor/middle class, excellent short term outlook for the rich) while the rest of the US continues to feel the pinch.
In terms of real estate trends, more downward pressure on the "affordable" segment (under a million in Manhattan, non-trendy Brooklyn, Queens), a bit a reflation for the $1 to 3 million segment, stagnation for the $3M+ segment, except for reality-TV/singers/film stars, as the truly rich hide away for fear their taxes increase.
If this were a relationship, 2010 was the time to wear "I'm with stupid" T-shirt, 2011 will be "should I talk to a divorce lawyer?", and Armageddon doesn't occur until the second half of 2012, when current trends (baby boomers sucking SS dry, lower immigration and high unemployment) force us to reconsider the social compact.

South and North Korea go to war.

Unfortunately I think there is a very real risk that this occurs.

And the last prediction,
Spiderman gets cancelled and geos down as the least successful Broadway production since Bialystock and Bloom's "Springtime for Hitler"

Wall street will have a weak 2011 and that would normally put pressure on pricing. But what happens instead are a rush in to buy (last of the lemmings if you like) from capitulating bears concerned about rising interest rates and foreigners concerned about the rising USD as it continues to strengthen versus the Euro (currently 1.31 usd/eur as I write this on 12/22/10). So just when the market should be weaker on the back of rates and Wall Street, it moves sideways.

NYC RE craters within 2-3 years to $500 psf.

USD crisis in late Spring of 2011.
Gold will sniff 1,600 by mid 2011.

Dow will finish down 5-6% for the year as the POMO juice drys up.

Housing will be flat.

economy grows at about 2.8%. unemployment drops to 9.1%. real estate prices remain flat. mortgage rates reverse course and move back to low 4s, before again reversing course, and finishing the year around 6%.
giants get the 6th seed in the playoffs. win all their games on the road and make it back to the superbowl against the patriots.

Nyc re adjusts to $501 psf in 2 to 3 yrs! We're playing price is right rules, right?

Ericho sniff this.

If housing is flat, I'll let you know what u r sniffing.

It is almost impossible for RE to be flat or up (ie anything except down) over the next several years. When mortgages are less expensive than first lien debt you know it's not going to end well.

Wasn't RE up this year?
ha!

mortgage rates are still below what they were at the beginning of this year. i remember the re market doing just fine. i dont think this rise in rates will have too much of an effect on real estate prices. not until we see it go above 6%. but than you know what might happen? inflation inflation inflation.

Didn't mortgage rates decline by approx 1/3 this year to the lowest they've ever been in history? For every comp you show that says RE is up this year I can find another that says it's down this year. Anyone who's betting that RE is flat or up when mortgage rates can only increase (and potentially increase by 50-75% - keep in mind that mortgage rates should be 7-9%, not 4-5.5% - somehow some people think 4-5.5% is normal) flunked out of 6th grade math - but more power to them - it only expedites the eventual decline in prices.

What the fk is so so so funny is that inflation may get to 6%, so add in margin and we are at 9% mortgage easy. And how will the fed stop this run away inflation? Well you'd make interest rate higher to preempt 10% inflation by hammering the market with treasuries at 12%. Who the fk wants to be in real estate when the fed will give you 12% with 2 bps transaction cost? And that's when I'd buy nyc re. Now it's a great time to rent. I bougt my wife a $30k ring. It's gonna be a great Xmas in w67th!!!!!!!

Fktards. In the wrong trade, looking at wrong data!!!!!! Flmaoz.

w67thstreet,
Might be your net worth fading away or simply the faded letters in your post, but are you talking about 'INFLATION'? I must be dreaming. Mr. Deflation is now talking about inflation? You've been arguing me with for almost 2 years about the forces of deflation and now you are talking about the fed stopping inflation???!??!?!?!

WHAT DA BLOOD CLOT!

> Good point, The bears will regret and curse out those that bought at 2008 discounted prices.

You are projecting, and its funny.
Only cursing I hear is from the folks who bought in the bubble...

> Wasn't RE up this year?

Studios, one beds, two beds... nope. 3-4 beds did bounce, but off numbers that went as high as 90% down...

Trophies are off 2/3.

Ericho. Was housing bubble calculated into the inflation # on the way up? Nope will it be calculated on the way down? Nope. Will inflation matter to a guy whose only 2 major expenses my kids education ($800k trust funded) and housing (getting cheaper all the time)?, no. But it'll move the market for people who actually need to borrow heavily to buy into a deflating housing bubble.

To my family, I've positioned myself to get the net greatest benefit from this bubble collapsing. And btw Ericho, your beat hope for your ph lic purchase is another financial collapse, a strengthening real economy is curtains for the financial ninnies such as yourself.

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/foreclosed-hudson-blue-sells-for-8-4m-by-the-lender-capitalsource-bank-to-the-sabet-group

W67: more evidence that your $500 is coming down the pike. $855 for new condo construction and counting. Still believe that the uber wealthy who took advantage of the recent 80% rise in stocks will continue to support upper end of market but everything else has to come down. Of course I have been waiting for it to come down since 2005 based of cost/income ratios but the endless series of supports to the market are illusory and reality --higher interest rates-- will come smack us all upside the head sometime soon.

w67th: how exactly is your housing expense getting cheaper? if you own, than i can see it being stable (unless taxes and maintenance increases). if you rent, your costs are going to continue to increase. especially if we have inflation.

apt23: the developer bought it at $855. the whole building. you dont think that you will be getting that price now, do you? i am sure the intention was to buy it, finish it, and put the condos back on the market. and i am assuming at not below cost

omg..prices have recovered about 75% from the deep freeze of late08/eraly 09. Don't believe it? Then look at your favorite building. Look at the list prices. Remove the highest and lowest then take median or average. You will find listing prices up to about 75% to peak prices with inventory down sharply. I know, I know, list prices are not sold prices. yes, but you can see overall where prices are b/c most brokers are not going to waste their time/money with overpriced listings.It's always been that way.

RE up. Bubba the frigidaire farmer runs the bling ring back to Zales for refund, claims irreconcilable differences between vision and reality.

Jim Dolan named North Korean Premier
(Reason given to North Korean People: Dolan's practical experience in running a Totalitarian regime)
Madison Square Garden changes to a kimchee relish on their dogs
Knicks continue to fail
Korean Peninsular peace hangs in the balance of every game

Tax code reform along the lines of the deficit panel's report. Lower taxes BUT loss/reduction of tax deductions including mortgages.

reduction of tax deductions including mortgages
Hello 300sq/ft

1. China raises interest rates twice, austerity measures continue to delay the EU recovery
2. The US economic recovery follows the normal course, gdp grows 3-5%
3. Global stock markets have a volatile first half and strong finish
4. Global bond markets underperform
5. There are 20 Municipal defaults
6. CRB rises 20%
7. NY real estates continues to slowly recover
8. 3-4 of the regular bears on this Board go on Prozac

> omg..prices have recovered about 75% from the deep freeze of late08/eraly 09

No, they haven't.

> Don't believe it? Then look at your favorite building.

I have.

They still haven't.

> You will find listing prices up to about 75% to peak prices with inventory down sharply.

So, prices were down 95%? Because they're down 20+% now.

Thanks for today's laugh, Steve.

actually, if I do the math in sequence, that means prices had to have been down 50%. Are you admitting prices went down 50%, steve?

Let me put nice unicCorn gloves on ekartash. If you own and lose $100k per year is that a loss? I know for a fact my flex 3 went down $1mm in 3 yrs.

Not unless you sell. And you dont know how much it went down. Did anyone buy it for 1 mill less? It is worth what someone pays for it. Not what you think its worth.

how stupid r u ekartash? If you had $20MM and sunk it into treasuries yielding 5% and a year later I plunk down $10MM yielding 10%, guess what? I'm fking living the same lifestyle as you for 28 of your 30 yrs hold period. I guess you didn't sell and didn't "lose" the 5% yield, but how'd you like a lowly scum like me becoming your in-law, cause my son is hanging out with your daughter in the same Ritz Carlton in Paris?

Flmaoz.......... pls, learn to understand economics. OR just the concept of opportunity cost.

Help me to help you to help me

"sledgehammer
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There will be at least one successfull terror attack on US soil."

I won't be one bit surprise you'll gets a call from homeland security.

what if i took $10mm at 5% and than another $10mm at 10% a year later. i would still have more than you!!!

xmas is right around the corner. keep asking santa for that 50% drop.

Ekartash,

You know what the sad part of all of this is.
These RE bears been screaming about a top since 2004 (think aboutready when she sold). They finally got their correction in 2008-2009. And guess what? They want more. What's the difference between them and the bulls that drove it to record highs? None. All greedy mofos.

Buying a home isn't about nailing the bottom of a housing cycle. It's about income and affordability. Buy a place within your means and work with your financial. In 10-15 years of time, that 10% in price isn't going to mean crap.

Great advice! Just like a blk hole, the laws of common sense are fked post a bubble!!!!!

FLMAOzzzzz. Santa's been good to me. :)

> the difference between them and the bulls that drove it to record highs? None.

One huge difference... we were, uh... RIGHT.

;-)

"Buying a home isn't about nailing the bottom of a housing cycle. It's about income and affordability. Buy a place within your means and work with your financial. In 10-15 years of time, that 10% in price isn't going to mean crap."

Right... as long as you are actually objective about it... which might mean it won't make sense anytime soon to buy, 10% drop or not.

Oh btw elartash! C6/7 are off 50% already, I got my wish for Kwanzaa. I'm being a greedy fk, you think Santa minds a greedy kid asking for a porsche, yacht (which is about to be registered with it's own burgee) and c7? Throw in some baubles and a thong for the mrs.w67.

i dont know what the fk c6/7 means. is that the tent you plan to pitch on the corner of w67th and columbus?

Don't be a bitter bubblecaust denier bubble shelter deflating rider!!!! Enjoy the ride!!!!!!! $200k/yr for 5 yrs, real price adjusted. Flmaoz.

The gift of bubbles!!!!!!! Yet so few see it for what it is! I've got a TriBeCa seller confirmed selling after jan1. The roaches are abandoning ship. When they all leave at once, it makes the ship list. Danger. Danger. Danger!!!!

another 2011 prediction: w67th will continue to spew his nonsense, and we will all laugh (at him. not with him).

i am off to happy hour!!! let the long weekend begin!

What is this bubblecaust? Is it a way to tie high real estate prices to the systematic murder of over 10 million people? What's the link? That NYC has 10 million people? I don't get it, please help.

Well when there are 72 comments already and the most recent one refers to "tranny hookers," I can see I came late to this party and most of the fun is already over. ;-)

But in the spirit of pointless prognosticating, here's mine: environmental degradation (and the resulting loss of natural resourcse) is what's really driving the markets, and since little-to-nothing is being done to halt or slow the decline of climate security, biodiversity and the natural world, I predict that we will see bigger and more frequent "climate catastrophes" in 2011.

These could include (but are not limited to) oil spills, hurricanes, droughts, floods, tsuanmis, blizzards, and, according to the "we-have-no-evidence-but-think-it's-true-anyway tribe, earthquakes.

And to paraphrase 2004 Nobel prizewinner Wangari Maathai, this ongoing loss of natural resources -- on a never-before-seen scale -- will cause and exacerbate more wars and conflicts.

As Maathai points out, the popular idea that the genocide in the Sudan is about ethnic differences is WRONG. That conflict is about natural resources -- who will control what little is left of arable land and water.

So I predict that things are going to get worse -- and also that things are going to get better. The greed-based drive to control diminishing natural resources will help to feed the various contrarian movements that already exist.

These include various green movements -- corporate, academic and NGO-backed sustainability movements, diversity-preservation movements, renewable energy movements (solar, wind, biofuel, etc.).

Sustainability investing is going to grow up and get more serious, because it will be seen as yielding more stable returns in the longrun.

As for real estate, it's overpriced, like most assets. Current valuations are based on old paradigms that don't have much life left in them.

Change is gonna come, baby. Better get on board the "less is more" bus. It's more fun than the champagne and caviar bus anyhow.

GG

GG,

"Less is More" will be the mantra. Most don't know it yet, but soon all will. It's a new day.

GG: Well put and well indicated. I concur. The "less is more" paradigm will also affect RE as families downscale to more meaningful spaces -- and lives. The conceot of the McMansion will be the embarrassment of the decade.

Less is more?

Or lower prices are better so you can afford more?

There's a big difference.

Poor pathetic wounded little acorn.
My wish for you is that what ever ails your demented little soul is magically cured by the new year.
By the way, how big a Christmas tree can you get under a bridge?
Wishing you a trolltastic holiday season.
Merry dementia!

Prediction for 2011: W67 buys this year and blames it on his wife.

Happy Holidays everybody!

ali r.
DG Neary Realty