Story of the Market

sold for 1.186 in 2007

Not worth more than $400,000.

I think a better investment would be to buy some taxicab medallions.

Not worth more than $400,000

Soon we will see the sale price and we will know exactly what it's worth.
Second floor 1br for over a mil....
got to love this town.
Big sale on bridges this weekend...don't miss it.

I guess the 4% price increase did the magic...

somewhereelse,

Happy New Year! Long time no speak.

Story of the market? More like the story of one overly ambitious flipper.

It's a classic tale of missing the boat without even knowing it. Not unlike those who endlessly pine for a magical second leg down to rescue them from their frigidaire farms after being caught sucking their thumbs in 2009. I don't see much difference between the two.

Good morning bears ; )

Jeez, spinny, let it go already. Since you bought in the magic of 2009, the NY RE according to the SE index is up a whopping 3.7%. Meanwhile, equities are up 90% since March 2009, and 50-65% since the surrounding months. I have a hard time coming up with ANY risky asset that didn't do better than RE. Hell, even if you were in risk-free long-term treasuries, you'd be up 6%. All things that are super-liquid with transaction costs of 0.01% as opposed to 10%.

I know you are happy with your new home, and I hope you enjoy it very much. However, to gloat about it as a great, well-timed purchase is comical. Maybe it'll look great in the future, who knows, but it just doesn't seem that way right now. You had the right idea, that the panic gave rise to opportunity, but you got on the wrong boat from the looks of things at the moment.

no way to greet someone in the morning, inon

Sorry.

Top of the morning to you, spinny!

g'day Nada...

Call me a radical, but I don't see the problem with pointing out the best buying opportunity in the last 3 yrs on a real estate forum. And without one single penile reference by the way.

If my "gloating" as you put it, rubs you the wrong way, tell me why is it then you seem unable to resist the urge to point out the wisdom of your all-in equity position on a regular basis?

Anyway, I have a hard time keeping up with all the mumbo jumbo and the tender feelings. It's such a magnificent morning up here in the birdhouse. I wish there was a simple way to cut down on the amount of sunlight an apartment gets, though for now sunglasses seem to be doing the trick. Must venture outside and bring in some more wood for the fire, better fill up the feeder while I'm at. Damn red finches pick through everything to get to the sunflower seeds, although the pair of mourning doves seem to appreciate the spoils. I gotta tell you nothing beats the smell and crackle of a fire on a lazy Sunday morning.

We'll catch ya later nada, enjoy this spectacular day.

Another story of the market

STREETEASY HISTORY
05/01/1997
Previous Sale recorded for $1,629,000.
12/07/2010
Listed by Stribling at $5,500,000.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/571788-condo-353-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

Why buy the cow when you can rent the milk for free, apt23. The exact footprint 4 floors higher has been available for rent for 7 months now:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/660616-condo-353-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

06/16/2008 Previously Listed by Corcoran at $27,000.
11/12/2008 Delisted by Corcoran.
06/07/2010 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $22,900.
06/11/2010 Price increased by 4% to $23,900.
08/16/2010 Price decreased by 4% to $22,900.
09/15/2010 Price decreased by 4% to $21,900.
12/02/2010 Price decreased by 9% to $19,900.

For those unfamiliar with this end of the market, you can rent this type of place at around $15K. Another chop on price, and it'll be within striking distance. With the $6K monthlies, you have to put up $5.5M to save $108K a year. Take out $55K a year for amortization of transaction costs over 10 years, and ignore upkeep and insurance, you're looking at netting $53K a year for $5.5M. I just have better uses for my money...

Ino: Well, that is just the ask. Apparently all the apts in this building have the same footprint. #15 sold for 5.6M in 02/08. #9 sold for 4.1M in 02/10. I don't know anything about condition of individual apts however. Still, even at lower price, doesn't look so good. And, I believe that same rental is on the market for 6M not 5.5M. Go figure.

Will you please post the price history on the apartments you purchased and sold so we can see how you were part of fueling the current situation?

Spinny, no question that you picked up on the best buying opportunity price-wise of the last 3 years in NY RE, but that just isn't saying much. However, there's a difference between pointing it out vs. saying how "the bears missed the boat". It's 3.7%, for heavens sake. Shit, at that rate, you can jump off the dock, swim, and catch up with the boat. My pointing out of equities is in response to your gloating about NY RE. The point is that 2009 was ripe with many opportunities, and your gloating about the worst one is just plain funny / weird. Anything short of cash would have done better, and if you're buying with a mortgage, 2009 prices + 2009 rate were worse than 3.7% higher 2010 prices + 2010 rates. It's not exactly like a 2009 buyer like you refi'ed in 2010 either. So I'm not sure on whether 2009 was even better overall than 2010, and the point is that we're talking about a number like zero or barely up. When anything else was up a shitload, all the while one could be renting at extremely favorable prices (4%) vs. paying 5% to the bank and 2% to maintenance.

As far as your little birdhouse, I know what it is, I get that you really enjoy it, and I'm glad you do. My last place was in many ways similar. However, you seem to be trying really, really hard to get me riled up about what a fabulous place it is and how a renter with a frigidaire is not living the life. Bragging to rile people up: not cool. Bragging to rile someone up who lives in a much, much nicer place than you: comical.

BTW, I very much enjoy our spats here. I hope you find the pokes in response to your prodding all in good fun. If not, let me know -- you stop prodding, I'll stop poking, and we live in blissful SE harmony.

Woops, missed the sales, apt23. Thanks for pointing them out.

nada - It's all very good theater, entertainment, whatever... my only regret is that more people don't join in on the fun. BTW it was the confluence of a precipitous drop in prices and an abundance of quality inventory that made 09 such an opportunity. It wouldn't hurt you to look beyond the numbers once in a while.

Does that mean spinnaker1 and inonada will be sitting next to each other at the next SE outing?

'beyond the numbers' 'chaos pricing theory' 'canadian ham nyc re trade' 'ability to feed birds' 'my fireplace beats your indoor heating' 'I'm canadian'

You sound like my 80yo Canadian real estate borker with a soft spot for birds.

I like pigeons. Especially if they've lost a foot due to a cold snap, and they hobble around on their stump of a 'leg'. I try and throw it some extra bread if my kids wanna feed the poor bastard.

Whoa W67. Harsh,eh? for the animal lovers and the Canadian lovers. beyond the pale for a canadian animal lover

True dat, apt23. Saskatchewan goose is very tasty.

I'm glad you view it as fun, spinny. Shit, I'll even buy you a beer at the next outing. Ain't no fun brawling with someone who's gonna get their feelings hurt.

On the quality inventory in 2009, I hear what you're saying. At your price point, most of the inventory is really uninspiring. Compared to the generic alternative, you gave up space to gain some very nice features which rarely can be found at that price point. So sure, when 1 in 10 places on the market are properly priced at any moment relative to the market, and of those in your price range only 1 in 30 have special features that you want, I can see why you jumped. The higher up you go, however, the nuttier the rent vs buy becomes, and "special" eventually becomes dime-a-dozen, so the inventory mix looks pretty much the same always even if you're in the market for "special".

See, everybody? Can't we all just get along?

Glad to see you're paying close attention bubba. We just made a snowman and a finch shat on it's head, which is good luck from what I'm told. So for your next lesson, go find a park bench underneath a tree full of chirping French Canadian birds.

I love you guys man.

One of my favorites:

STREETEASY HISTORY
01/16/1997
Previous Sale recorded for $218,500.
07/19/2006
Previous Sale recorded for $555,000.
03/02/2009
Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $985,000.
05/28/2009
Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available.
10/22/2009
Listed by Knickerbocker Village New York at $950,000.
06/02/2010
Previously Listed by Bid on the City at $40,000.
06/17/2010
Price increased by 5% to $1,000,000.
07/20/2010
Bid on the City Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $40,000.
08/16/2010
Price increased by 3% to $1,025,000.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/473296-condo-one-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york

Group hug. Big French Canadian kiss

that is, my favorite besides the ino/spin/w67 challenge. i'm buying drinks at the final face off

You so missed your big opportunity, spinny. See the type of inventory apt23 can dig out these days?

Inonanda is right on this one: the stock market investment has been a much better choice so far (during the period mentioned by spinnaker) money-wise. Spinnaker may still prove right in the long term, but we will not know for some time. But up until the facts are firmly on innada's side.

spinny gloats that he has paid up to own vs rent during a time where he is breakeven on his purchase at best if considers transaction costs, and he missed the boat on a stock market that has doubled off of the bottom--in fact there are few investment products that havent performed very well in here--commodities, fixed income, metals, energy--and spinny's all bragging that he caught the low in re--what a moron

the only excellent opportunity of recent in real estate was to sell in 07/08

Wbottom, it's really awesome that you are able to judge other's purchases and investments so acutely. I am impressed.

Wbottom thinks that someone needing a home ought to invest their money in the stock market that over 10 year streches can go nowhere, or between October 07 and March 09 can lose more than half of its value (1560 down to 690), just because between March 09 and January 11 (1280) it can partially recover to 85% of where it was in October 07. Market timing is wonderful for storytelling.

The one thing that gets me about predictable, one-dimensional characters like wbottoms here, and his uncanny, self-professed ability to delude himself into believing that he has outsmarted all of humanity, is how truly miserable and bitter they often seem to be.

C'mon 'bottoms, you may still be salvageable, so get out of your Batman pajamas and let me take you on a little tour of our three dimensional world. It's never too late.

Actually the superb market timing which has led us here, fools, is spinny's gloat re having bought NY circa 2009...and it's pretty clear that what he has timed is a miss of vastly superior returns available in just about all other investments

Thanks for the heads up that markets move and have tops and bottoms..I'd never thought of that

My deets are out there, but for now know I've owned in NY etc for 20 years plus...sold in august 07...rent now...lots of luck, a little bit smarts

Tho there was plenty available for anyone to read that made it pretty clear the game was ending in 07/08

Just like there's plenty out there now which makes pretty obvious that best case for NY for a while is flat..me, I'll buy if the right side of the W bottom appears.. No dogma, just patience...bull dogma from new owners like spinny and bj is quite amusing tho

It's a common issue for failed traders: can't see reality through one's positions

Homeowners need to be traders?

Well, though I try to caution anyone in tight financial straits to be careful in these risky times, I gotta say that Spin's description of sharing his sunny climes with the finches in front of a fireplace overlooking the greatest city in the world sounds pretty fabulous. Life is short. If you can afford it, why not. There is more to life than making money in the market.

I thought I bought at the bottom in Miami but I am presently down 10% with more downside risk given our govt's great financial experiment. But I planned for the risk. It is those who didn't plan for more downside risk that might take this short window that the gods - and the Fed --have given us to rethink. In the meantime, after a morning run on the beach, I'm havin coffee on my beautiful terrace over the ocean. Is it cold in NYC?

I know you already know how f'n cold it is here apt23. Never mind about Miami, a few more winters like this one and you'll be golden.

When's happy hour by the way?

Apt23, are you down in Miami full-time now?

Oh, and screw you with your "coffee on the terrace overlooking the ocean, is it cold there?" schtick. The best thing about Miami IMO is those little joints in Little Havana with the cafe cubano in those thimble-sized shot glasses. If you want to make me jealous, tell me you're having that on your terrace.

Spinny, what the hell do you do with all that bird shit on your terrace? Ever thought of selling it as lip balm?

http://www.ilovechickenpoop.com

spin: happy hour starts at dawn and goes all day --hurricane weather days precluded. As an old "NYC is the center of the universe" zealot, I never thought that I would be so affected by beautiful weather. I apologize to all my friends that I derided for gaving up NY for LA. I get it now. Other great thing is that I've exchanged my white wine for hibisicus tea -- for the most part. So it is truly happy hour.

Ino: Not here full time but it is an easy trip so most 3 three day weekends turn into a 4 or 5 day trip. My husband once took an extra day here and worked all day on the terrace. No one ever knew he wasn't at work in his office with the door closed. It was an ah-hah moment for him.

I love those coffees. My new condo development got many things wrong but they did put in those Miele espresso makers in the wall. I play it like a slot machine. We have an amazing Cubano fish restaurant across the street that is fabulous -- pick the fish out of a plastic cooler and wait for a meal to die for. Miami is a great city. The music, the culture, the ART, the food, the beautiful, beautiful beach. Come on down before global warming wipes it out.

btw. RE in miami is crazy,crazy cheap.

"No dogma, just patience...bull dogma from new owners like spinny and bj is quite amusing tho"

Here's what I love though - you somehow deluded yourself into this paranoid vision that I'm *bullish*. Truly astounding.

"It's a common issue for failed traders: can't see reality through one's positions"

Again, spectacular that you can so acutely judge other's investments while somehow thinking that you don't have a "position" either. As spinny said, it's another beautiful day out; hope you can enjoy it.

Oh my bad, closet bull... That's when you tell everyone you rent, but you actually own. Flmaozzzzzzzz

I rent a beautiful apt right now..easy to do...I'll spare all gloating on the details..and the relaxed feeling I have, laden with cash, performing liquid investments, and flexibility

You bought, it's ok...if you used minimal leverage, have plenty of cash on the side, and/or have good ongoing employment circumstances, you'll be fine...

Your preaching re the prudence of your having bought, to reinforce that for yourself, is, like I said, entertaining and fun to illuminate

And there are unlimited ways to waste money "feeling good"...that's not the point..the point is about spinny's great "buying opportunity"

Hahahahaha

Oh Bj....youre such a crafty sneaky bull whose condo "maintenance" never goes up.....

Wbottom, I know - be careful. The next time I say rents are going down, I'm really sneakily saying that they're going up. You sir, are a riot. Thank god you're here to judge all.

w67. when i look at the financial risks in the market, it is scary to think how much farther down the market -in miami and elsewhere-- can go. I think when the big foreclosure wave/put back issue gets some fuel, it might look real interesting. Unless we get some more end of the world floods and hurricanes. Always a toss up. But man, I love that beachfront property. risky risky risky. but so cool.

wbottom: i love having cash from my RE sales. . i just wonder how i'll feel if/when it becomes worthless. there don't seem to be too many safe investments. I have proposed putting it all in diamonds but needless to say, hubby is skeptical.

Apt23, believe it or not I've been to Miami only once. Rented a condo with a terrace overlooking the ocean, loved it, but there it is. As far as buying a place there, I know myself: I just wouldn't use it that often.

agreed that cash is a burden of sorts too--as is remaining invested in other bubbly markets--where re is unique tho is that it is negative carry compared to renting, such that, to justify owning, one has to be comfortable assuming decent returns to cover carry alone--to be in cash with money typically invested in re is painless and easy--the last scenario i see is for re to outperform this carry differential in any significant way

what to do with stocks, commods, metals, energy, munis ans other FI; and how to allocate vs cash is very difficult in her--in hindsight, ive been too heavy in cash---ongoing, the shit all feels toppy to me, except maybe energy---scary, tricky times for all but real estate, which has little value now

It's amazing that apt23 and Wbottom both sold their places within 2 months of each other in the summer of 2007! Maybe you even know each other?

I've got to hand it to you, you have focus...you've been trolling yourself for some time now..you've really hung in there with it..Great Life

He she it has devoted it's life to making a fool of itself. And it's working.

Way to go river bagger.

Wbottom, do you and apt23 belong to the same country club in Miami? You could compare notes, which one of you dislikes spinnaker and which one of you dislikes bjw. So convenient that you split spinnaker and bjw, while so many other things are so similar, like the time that you sold your apartment in summer 2007, and how you went all in in the equity markets in March 2009, and how you both are upset at the Fed, and how you both...