From UD: More inventory woes for buyers...

Noah, your data are SO helpful. Those of us who have been checking sensed fewer new listings than in the past, and your data give validity to our speculations. Thanks!

Bricka bracka firecracker
Sis boom bah!
SteveF! SteveF!
RAH RAH RAH!

I have a feeling that if the numbers said there were 2900 new listings, it would be indicative of coming big declines.

no no hold your adulations....just knowing bears, such as yourself Alan, are losing, is satisifaction enough for me.

swe has to be seething and frothing over that keyboard. Seething. Kind of like when Gekko breaks that thing he is holdingafter he hears Sir Larry buying BlueStar..."Son of a b-tch!" Just add the mouth foam and you've got yourself a somewhereelse...

Open Houses Manhattan
Sunday 23rd
» more search options
1797 open houses found.

Same 2000 some odd opens every sunday, regardless of "actives."

Somehow I think if I were interested in say, one of the 200 available units in a place like William Beaver House, it may become available, these are the "magic' actives.

Steve, I don't understand, your second post is actually Malcolm Carter's post on UD's comment page.
And we all like like Noah, but please stop tossing his salad the way you do, you give me this really bad Richard Simmons visual.

truthskr, as much as w67th loves those open house counts, I put minimal stock in them. My brother's been shopping around for a place, trying at least to educate himself on the market, and has been to about a dozen open houses listed on Streeteasy. Only problem was that when he showed up, not one of them was actually taking place (seriously, he was 0-for-whatever, unbelievable). Either something's screwy with the system, or the brokers are just not updating their systems to any satisfactory degree.

"And we all like like Noah, but please stop tossing his salad the way you do, you give me this really bad Richard Simmons visual."

Hilarious. I am a bit grossed out by that visual as well.

steveO,
Isolated data does not a market make.
It speaks to many possibilities.
1. I'm selling now before it really hits the fan.
2. I'm selling now because I've waited as long as I can for a recovery
3. I'd sell now only if I had to.
4. I'd sell but what would I buy?
5. This is a heck of a winter...let's wait for the weather to improve especially wrt open houses.
6. I'd hold my home off the market because I love steveF to feel good about himself (that's why I'm waiting)

i think steve needs to ratchet back a bit on the wellbutrin.

BJW
That's weird, in a 12 month period, for the 50 or so open houses I went to, maybe 2 were improperly cancelled.
And actually Dubya ran with those counts after I posted the first 3000 open house count.It was numbers not to be ignored.

But as we both know, the sky isn't falling but it ain't sunny days either.
The paltry inventory is in lock step with the paltry in contracts and sales.
Bottom line is $1000 average ppsqft is hanging around like a 10K Dow jones and with less volatility due to liquidity of RE vs Stocks.
Believe it or not, I think the 4th Q surge had a lot to do with nervous capital gainers wanting out this year.
Next 2 quarters will tell us a lot about the next year and a half IMHO.

truth, could have been a fluke, though it was over the course of at least three weekends, and it was (obviously) starting to get annoying. I don't understand the glee with which some engage in broker bashing, but this kind of stuff is definitely not helping their cause.

And no, not sunny days either. I think the story is going to be pretty boring around here for some time. I know some around here are still absolutely certain of a huge second leg down, and a select few are, as ar put it, on a little too much Wellbutrin, but I don't see either sensationalist camp getting the stories they want anytime soon.

bj, cant you put down the axe you grind so miserably for six seven??

steveOpompoms--as long as youre hanging at the salad bar with noah again, why not mention that his realtime contracts signed data shows serious weakness as of the last 7 and 30 days, such that jan looks to be shaping up to be very weak, as in appx 600--last sept (583) was the weakest contracts signed month we've seen since 2/09--not pretty

i hear brokers are abandoning open houses for the nearest bars, based on the depressing number of lookers, considering new careers as h...kers----a poem

I like UD as much as the next guy (well, maybe not as much as SteveF). But as I read the comments below his post, he seems to be saying that he is comparing December 20, 2010 through January 19, 2011 against January 1-31 of the past 3 years. Maybe I am reading this all wrong, but if the point is that there were less listings for a period covering Christmas and New Year's then, well, ok.

J E T S Jets Jets Jets

I believe you are referring to a slow agonizing grind...like rough sanding with emery cloth.

I don't think anyone is expecting the market to run off the cliff (except maybe the lemming lover).
I think in terms of slow disintegration. The way the market behaved from 1989 to 1994/95. I don't remember any cliffs just a slow steady slide. So what I'm saying is: No steps, just a down ramp.
Those of us who are neurologically challenged will note the difference.

W, stop being so gosh-darned sensitive. Especially on others' behalf. It's noble, but icky.

so, the christmas snow storm (18") and the snow after that (3") and the storm last week (8") and the one coming (3-5") and the sleet that we just had makes every seller say "This is the best time to put my apartment on the market!!!!!!!!"

Most people will wait till the snow melts on their block before putting their apartment on the market.

can i have some of steveF is smoking.... please

I agree Malthus. I tried to post a comment twice on his site to clarify, but it didn't take. Basically, the last running 30 days (720 hours) is his comparison point vs. January 1-31st of past years. Since december 21st-31st has to be a complete dud of a period when it comes to new listings, AND new listings have tended to appear right before the Super Bowl in past years, I don't think the data are meaningful at this point.

But DID YOU KNOW? in his comments that the system updates 7 times a day and in the last update there were 29 more new listings? That means we can expect over 200 new listings per day and if you extrapolote that over the next 11 days we will have another 2200 listings before the end of the month! Now I'm going to post 4 more times to show my sheer joy and enthusiasm for this data!

Or maybe I will just wait until the end of the month and draw some conclusions then...

Waiting for facts?! you're no fun.

"no no hold your adulations....just knowing bears, such as yourself Alan, are losing, is satisifaction enough for me."

ROTFL.

Yes, watching my stocks explode (coming on 250% on those SSOs), while RE registered yet another losing quarter.... if thats losing, I'll take it! More losing, PLEASE!

So "winning" is losing your shirt and crying about it? My my, you are such a winner, Steve!

"swe has to be seething and frothing over that keyboard. Seething."

poor, poor steve. Delirious. Projecting.

Its been two years of "RE is going up like gangbusters" from you, and two years of you being flat wrong.

Sorry, toots. I think you need another hobby, besides losing your shirt in RE.

My my my, Steve once again not knowing how to read data.

"There simply are not as many new listings coming to market as there has been in the past few January's"

Yes... but partially because (and what Steve leaves out is)... there was already more inventory before the jump! We *already* have higher inventory in Jan according to Noah than we did all of last Jan.

and lower pending sales.

So, thanks for pointing out sales are lower and inventory is higher than last year, Steve.

I know you didn't mean to, but you're continuting to prove the "losing" bulls right!

I agree malthus, UD even stated in a post a week before Not to look at 30 day new contracts as they include the super slow end of DEC. So to post this seems silly

The real story is inventory is rising and pending had a free fall last week down 4%

i noticed very little decline, relatively, in inventory post-thanksgiving to present. this week had 440 new listings. we shall see.

"I agree Malthus. I tried to post a comment twice on his site to clarify, but it didn't take. Basically, the last running 30 days (720 hours) is his comparison point vs. January 1-31st of past years. Since december 21st-31st has to be a complete dud of a period when it comes to new listings, AND new listings have tended to appear right before the Super Bowl in past years, I don't think the data are meaningful at this point."

can u tell me the error u got? Was it the 6-letter spam control for non registered/subscribed users? We have lots of work to do to make the site more user friendly, all in time. Spending most of the time for new tools.

but hey, finally Im getting some discussions on the tools I built! thats a positive, even if its about the flaws in that post
But this comment above is right, and I thought this to myself right after I published. The 30-day pace is the only monthly pace to go on right now, but yes, it includes the dud of no new listings coming to market dec 20th-21, so the tail end will lose minimal data and the front end likely will see more data netting a rising trend for remainder of JAN..silly? Ehh, not one of my brightest moments! But a few clients mentioned to me the lack of options recently, and asked me to chat about recent January inventory trends..I should have mentioned exactly what you mentioned at the end of the piece!

jstreet - yep I did say that for the pace of contracts signed...I should have got a strict number for JAN so far from my engineer and extrapolate from there...cant change it now!

ps: its already up to 1,375 with 11 days left to go..

whoa..just found a bunch of comments in spam...re-publishing now..ARGH! I hate the bugs with the new backend blog systems. Sorry guys. Ill try to get this fixed, I know it looks awful not to have comments up right away and how frustrating it is to try to comment and have issues. Ill try to have the problem clarified and fixed as soon as possible

Maly - your comment should be live now

Hi Noah,
at first I got an error code because I didn't realize capitalization mattered on the spam filter. I tried to post twice after, didn't get any error message, but my post didn't appear. I thought maybe I should register first, but then gave up/ something came up.
I am grateful to SteveF for the opportunity to make the comment after all.

ok, thanks Maly. that helps to know. I think I just got your comment published as yours and 5 or so others were in SPAM folder. so damn frustrating, sorry

np, I love your site, and admire your tenacity and hard work. FWIW, I think we are on target to break 2,000 new listings in January. In past years, the curve has always been exponential from week to week in January.

thx Maly! yea I can buy that, im curious to see how it plays out!

>bj, cant you put down the axe you grind so miserably for six seven??
>steveOpompoms--...
>i hear brokers are abandoning open houses for the nearest bars, based on the depressing number of lookers, considering new careers as h...kers----a poem

Ok you are definitely not a man.

BTW, SteveF, wasn't it you who said Noah wasn't objective... when he posted data you didn't like?

Noah-- to be honest, you are awesome. thanks for acknowledging that. not to many people in this ever do that. i respected you a lot before and even more now. thx. your blog is awesome and the best thing out there, so thank you. as are the free and subscriber tools, it is all there is and very very helpful!

Agreed, Noah is a huge resource to the RE community, and a shining counterexample to so much of the broker ignorance (to be nice about it) out there.

somewhereelse,

Can you please give me 1% of your wisdom? I would be a better person by 25%! How are you?

I'm great man, happy holidays! Been a really nice few months, how about you?

Definitely

I am doing OK and happy holidays too! Living and learning. Good to hear from you!

jstree/swe - so kind! thank you very much...makes me realize all the effort was worth it!

The effort was worth it because the site is great!!!!

Totally. Th eold site had some good data, but this is a definite step up overall. New analysis is great, but also just a better all look and feel.

Congrats, Noah.