excelsior

Why bother :( The perma-bears and trolls have taken the joy out of this board a long time ago! Enjoy the studio rental with the Ikea funiture kids.

economic indicators are all pointing to better times ahead. banks are hiring people. that being said, we are better off than we were a year ago so Im wagering that things keep getting better. It feels better to root for good things as well.

Things are going just fine for the upper half (education, wealth, income, whatever measure) and not so fine for the lower half. (halves are not indicated as exactly 50%).

'burg....Luckily we are surrounded by a moat. It's not like we'll have to build a wall or anything.

Falco - I have always accepted that life is a vast ocean of uncertainty. You could make a smart buy now, and be up 20% in three years, then the big C comes knocking on your door. Or you could make a foolish buy now, and be down 20%, but then the big C loses your address. Whatevers... if you ain't busy living, you're busy dying.

shawshank

ding ding ding we have a winner!

i feel much better renting a nice big apartment filled with my very nice furniture, my art and my music--an apartment that would be much more expensive, right now, to own--an apartment, the maintenance of which i care little about and have no responsibility for--an apartment i use as quarters, not as an ongoing project, which lets me focus on the so many other activities and projects i engage in our fine city--to own would cost me $$ as well as lifestyle concessions, such that i had better have a high degree of confidence that the market will go up at least the 5% per year or so required to merely offset the greater $$ cost of owning--i have little confoidence that it will do so

i have greatest confidence that ny re will be nominally flat over the 5 yr horizon

and still see a decent chance that we se new lower lows, prior to getting on a bull track again

i see little reason to worry that there will be a market so strong as to outperform other asset classes and leave one having "missed" decent buying opportunities--if i have worries, my least is that i will miss buying the ny re market

not remotely a perma bear--just someone lucky to have bought/sold over 15 years, sold to rent in 07, and been in asset classes other than real estate of recent--someone re3ticent to change that very lucky track, until there are clear signals to do so

and for those who have been perma bears, what's wrong with having rented sinced 2005-06?

>'burg....Luckily we are surrounded by a moat. It's not like we'll have to build a wall or anything.

I get it. In contrast to the past days of American history when everything was equal and everyone was equal.

>i feel much better renting a nice big apartment filled with my very nice furniture

and my "girlfriend" living in another boro

More like "Get busy living, or get busy dying."

There's an active-role quality to the quote, and I believe there is a third choice which is to do neither.

marco says "It feels better to root for good things as well."

Not only does it feel better it is better....for your health, for one thing. Well said marco. All the best.

being realistic and being hopeful are not mutually exclusive.

the "good things" i root for are just as good as those you root for

i root for my continual happiness, and more affordable housing for all

you root for you re to go up in value

it's so idiotic for you to think there something better about you rooting for a rebubble

and your constant obsessive cheerleading is anything but healthy--it speaks of your serious anxiety--maybe you're too leveraged??

"i feel much better renting a nice big apartment filled with my very nice furniture, my art and my music--an apartment that would be much more expensive, right now, to own--an apartment, the maintenance of which i care little about and have no responsibility for--an apartment i use as quarters, not as an ongoing project, which lets me focus on the so many other activities and projects i engage in our fine city"

W, honestly, that's great. You're obviously someone for whom renting makes total sense, and there are plenty of people in that same boat. I doubt you care little about the maintenance of your place (you live there after all) but I don't think that's exactly what you meant either.

"i root for my continual happiness, and more affordable housing for all"

Agreed - more affordable housing is a great thing. I don't root for the financial destruction of others like some, but the ultimate goal of affordable housing may unfortunately have that effect on some.

inonada, busy-ness is entirely a state of mind. Therefore, no third choice!

more vapid troll commentary from bj

'nada - I already get that you're anal, no need to reinforce it.

'bottoms - who are you trying to convince so wholeheartedly? OK, so you are clearly brilliant, and possibly clairvoyant. But I bet the single 40 watt bulb in your Frigidaire doesn't make the radicchio come to life like the 20 halogens in my Meile. Loser punk.

Falcs: Very few people (if any) will be able to tell you where the economy will be in 3 years. But certainly we can look in the rear view mirror and observe what has happened. In NJ where I am, prices have fallen approx.35-40% from the peak, that's significant.

In NYC it is a bit harder to generalize due to factors like ridiculous ask prices based on past uber peak pricing. In some of the threads we have seen drastic chops that don't necessarily represent the "market" in general. I recently sold a 1000F2 jr.4 at 325 East 79th street for $624,000, DM, prewar;($624 per F2).I sold a 1 bedroom in Gramercy for $424,000, 650F2 doorman, post war.

My point is that if you want to buy there are some compelling deals out there, especially if you have a hold time of 8-10 years minimum. Low interest rates are certainly not the only reason to buy, but today if you are patient and can find the right place, they don't hurt. I for one am tired of renting(30 years!) and look forward to buying a home, the plan is to be there for 10-15 years, maybe longer?

I think we are past the point of Armageddon, the NYC market is currently nothing like the bubble years regardless of what some say here with overly bullish sentiment. I also certainly don't see prices accelerating upward and believe in many cases prices will continue to fall. I think between now and June we will have an even clearer picture for the nervous bears out there. Thats my plan at least, to continue looking over the next 3-5 months with the aim at pulling the trigger in June or July. Sure AAA properties are selling, but 1000's of others languish. For me a big part of home ownership is an emotional issue, but of course we have to balance that with financial responsibility. I am on record for telling people not to buy starting at the end of 2006, so there certainly is a time NOT to buy.

I'm not saying go out and buy a $2000 dollar a F2 loft in Tribeca. But if you want to own a home, have all your financial ducks in a row, plan to be there 8-10 years, then do it if it will give you emotional satisfaction. Nada is the expert on running all the numbers, but maybe you'll also do alright when you sell in 10 years. When buyers tell me they plan to sell in 5 years, I tell them to keep renting and save money for their house in the burbs.

oh lil spinner...tough punk talk from behind the screen...tough being such a lil spinner

W, you ninny, I actually agreed with you. If that's "vapid troll commentary," you kind of have yourself to blame. Seems like you're just interested in picking fights round here, huh?

I'm with spinny on this one. Don't plan your life around a big change in the market. It may or may not happen, but muddling around flat nominally, maybe slightly down, is the most likely outcome. Plan accordingly.

I have plenty of money/income to buy whatever I want. However, I value going from nice place to nice place every few years, and I value getting a "deal" (more so than the actual money saved). I don't value being able renovate because I find there are plenty of nice choices others have already made for me, and I don't value the ability to say I own something, certainly not to the point that I'd pay double after accounting for the cost of capital. So my plan is to go from one nice place to the next for the foreseeable future. If prices drop, maybe I'll buy. If prices go up or stay flat, I keep doing what I'm doing.

My suggestion to you is to figure something like that out for yourself: plan assuming flattish prices, and know what you'll do if a big drop or rise happens.

'bottoms, don't take my comments the wrong way. If I haven't yet made it clear, I envy and admire you. It's just the dealing with people / living within a dynamic society part that makes me cringe. Otherwise we're golden.

we are in very much the same boat nada--in my case largely a lucky boat

not so easy for those unlucky enough to have bought neear the peak

Shit, I agreed with spinny. Gotta fix that...

"But I bet the single 40 watt bulb in your Frigidaire doesn't make the radicchio come to life like the 20 halogens in my Meile. Loser punk."

You put a fridge with 20 halogen bulbs in an apt that would barely fit in my living room? Like putting $3K rims on a 1995 Civic. Loser punk.

There, that's better. Balance has been restored to the universe.

nada--you got a miele, or a frigidaire?

Yeah, Wbottom. I feel bad for people who don't have the money to buy because of the bubble, but have a strong buying desire.

Whew nads, you pulled through just as I was hunting for the cancel my subscription button.

A Sub-Zero. Apparently, the owner didn't deem it worth the effort to strip it out, as it says in the official owner's handbook of NY. And I quote, "Be sure to replace your fridge with a Frigidaire lest your tenants forget their place in society."

nada, but it's a 1995 Sub-Zero, right?

KeithB, really good post - I think that in addition to having your financial ducks in a row and a long time horizon, you should also talk yourself out of ever expecting any significant appreciation, no matter when you sell. Unfortunately, I think there is still a heavy dose of "real estate is a great investment" kind of speculation out there, despite all that's happened, and the sooner that's gone, the better.

From the aughts, unfortunately. But you wouldn't approve of the color: not aubergine.

Give me aubergine or give me death. Or at least pistachio.

aubergine is so 2010.

I have a switch plate I saved from my last rental, it was heavy and thick with generations of paint so I had to almost chip it out of the wall when I left. While it's long since lost its form, I am intrigued by how each layer of paint represents a moment in time. I have scratched away different layers in each corner to reveal the different colors frozen in time. One corner I have chipped away right down to the plastic -or bakelite probably, to about the time when the doughboys were clambering aboard steamers to Europe. Another is down to where Holiday and Parker were setting fire to Harlem that eventually spread throughout the rest of the world. The rest I left alone and what remains is a deceptively fresh layer of white rental paint, typically chalky, and concealing. The switch plate is rounded over, heavy, and barely recognizable. It's my least favorite part.

spin, that was Proust-like. Remembrance of Paint Coats Past.

must have been a seriously crappy rental, all those years without renovating

but hey youre a big shot now, what with all them halogens in miele-land

Hate to shit on this parade of 'maybe re ain't a bad buy'! But $30billion decrease in wall street bonus from pre lehman to 2010. Let's call that seed capital. You take your $30b in nyc re seed capital and get thee to a bank and lever that up 5x, 10x or even 15x, you get maybe $300b in real estate purchases or even $450b? - shrug - but surely nyc re has done deflating.

Flmaoz. What you guys don't see, I don't understand? If you think manhattan is immune to laws of cash flows and economics that brought nj down 40% (Keithb) then you don't understand Cocentric circle theory of economics (w67 patent pending).

Every month w67 the renter beats the pants off w67 the owner. I see it in my bank account, my yacht, my bentley, my trust fund for my kids, my sleeping soundly at nite. Hey spinny I'm about to register my yacht, I think I'll name it 'easy street'

Sorry bubba, but anyone calling a sailboat a yacht isn't really a sailor. Maybe you should call it "can you believe the size of my dick?"

I still want a invitation on the "boat", we'll toast like it's 1987 and play the Cars "let the good times roll...."

Sorry spinny. It wasn't me that wanted it registered. It was another member who thought it'd be a fine addition to the yacht club. It's more than 35 feet, a yacht by definition. Not that I care, seriously I don't give a rats azz. It's a trade.

Kb, Christopher cross 'sailing'. Bring your iPhone/iPod plug it into the marine fusion dock and off we go :)

w67th, it's beautiful, really:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/J-24_yacht_racing,_Sydney_Harbour.jpg

My boat will be campaigned off sydney at some point bf I head off to the Whitsunday islands. The last time I was at hayman island, I'd look longingly at the catamarans and sailboats moored off the island. As beautiful as it was, it killed me to know that there were hundreds more within a half day sail. My yacht club has reciprocity with Sydney yacht club. :)

But you nyc re underwater 'homeowners' just enjoy your home. You've really got no choice, do you?

Keep rockin' that boat, bubba. I hope your "yacht" doesn't go "underwater" either. But maybe it's a sub too?

Biggest problem with forecasting is there are no rules anymore. Anything or anyone or any sector can get bailed out or left to burn at any point.

With that in mind Falco all you can do is hedge your bets.
Forget the $500 per sq ft perfect apartment that doesn't exist, as once you find it, maybe there will be some odd policy, or rule,or life situation that made you able to buy that place today not able in 15 months.

So in the meantime find that $800 per sq ft apartment you can live with (meaning well within your means, maybe not the 3 bed 3 bath that sets you up for 15 year manhattan living but something smaller...but livable)
If the market goes up, great, your in on the ground floor. Praise Jesus and how smart are you.
If the market does round 2,and $500 per sq ft beauties are all over the place, you sell your $1.5 apartment for 1 mil, and then buy your 3 bed 3 bath at today's $2.5 for $1.6

...........if your a hedging man

See Im the same type of bear as you,and find merit and truly believe in the many assessments Financeguy and the colorful DubyaSixSev have provided on where this market should be.
However, I also strongly believed 3 years ago that Citibank would be Chapter 7.........

"there are no rules anymore" - yep:

"Rich Take From Poor as U.S. Subsidy Law Funds Luxury Hotels"

"The landmark Blackstone Hotel in downtown Chicago, which has hosted 12 U.S. presidents, opened in 2008 after a two-year, $116 million renovation. Inside the Beaux Arts structure, built in 1910, buffed marble staircases greet guests spending up to $699 a night for rooms with views of Lake Michigan.

What’s surprising isn’t the opulent makeover: It’s how the project was financed. The work was subsidized by a federal development program intended to help poor communities. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/rich-taking-from-poor-as-10-billion-u-s-subsidy-law-funds-luxury-hotels.html

I've been reading very carefully everyone's input.
So far the civility has been commendable.
W81st made a great observation on another thread about folk (like me) looking for their final resting place. In other words, we move just one more time and that's it. It's got to be the one we love. Compromise time is now over. For me it's about timing to insure the biggest bang for the buck but there is no rush except for the fact that 'TIME' she is'a pass'in. I've got my boy w67 in my ear with sound financial observations wrt the acquisition of wealth long term. These two factors seem to be at odds here in the big city. I'm going to buy myself this prize...one of these days, I just trying do decide which day. I always wanted to own some Goldman Stock...imagine my surprise when it went on sale for $67 a share! I know re does not work this way but it warms my heart to get in near the bottom.

West 67 - I think you should call the yacht Liquid Assets

"Liquid Azzets"

Or maybe "flmaozzzzzzz"

"I have plenty of money/income to buy whatever I want. However, I value going from nice place to nice place every few years, and I value getting a "deal" (more so than the actual money saved). I don't value being able renovate because I find there are plenty of nice choices others have already made for me, and I don't value the ability to say I own something, certainly not to the point that I'd pay double after accounting for the cost of capital."

this

also, ditto what that thing with the yacht in the trunk of his bentley said. uuuggghhh.

and to round out the troika, i'll echo wbottom in that we have enough books, art, music, STUFF that there has to be something very wrong with the space if we can't make it a comfy home.

f*ck bubble prices. no way.

LucilleIsFoamingAwayAtMouthAgain

are you seriously trolling me? why?

Falco: you have to have conviction in your beliefs no? Either you think the macro-economy is going to eventually bring down Manhattan RE or not? Having said that, I'm a bear who owns. So what gives? I have some confidence that I can walk away from my home and mtge, while protecting our nest egg. It's been great living here but I can't get too attached to it. If I honestly could not live like that, then I wouldn't own. These are damned uncertain times, and I'm not comfortable telling anyone that they should buy, just because life is short. Life is short, but how would you feel if your home lost 50% of its value in a year? If you are totally fine, happy in your nest, then go for it.

Lucille, have you seen this thread that columbiacounty's buddy started about him:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/23611