Prudential 1Q2011 Manhattan Rental report

Who said rents aren't up? Of course they are - because housing hasn't fallen enough in price. Look at all the new rental conversions, just profiled in the Shill York Times.

"Who said rents aren't up?"

You are a ruh-tard. There are fifty people on these boards who have been arguing this for the past six months.

Quote 3.

"Quote 3."

See: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25359-rents-expected-to-spike-over-next-three-years

also

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25630-article-in-crains-says-rental-prices-are-going-up

So STFU.

See also

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/24643-mixed-results-on-recent-rental-market

All these threads show you have difficulties with reading comprehension.
This is your initial oh-so-eloquent point: "So stop pretending like rents are not up, dummies. You are a ruh-tard. There are fifty people on these boards who have been arguing this for the past six months."

I only asked for 3 people saying rents are not up. Instead, you c&p 3 threads where one person (inonada) makes the nuanced observation that not all rents are up. Come on, 50 people are arguing rents aren't up, it can't be that hard to find 3 quotes. Not threads, quotes.

Agreed.

The point I made on the thread was rents being up is not a great sign for the sales market...

From the above threads:
bhh
bjw2103
Columnibacounty
aboutready
SkinnyNsweet

and of course

Inonada (this is not subtle: "I think the recovery of the rental market has been greatly exaggerated. I'm seeing lots of places going at 2009 rents, sometimes lower. For example..."

I stopped counting after that, but its more than 3. FUVM.

How recent are these arguments that rents aren't up? I'm a renter (and an owner) and I find that rents are up. Not astronomically, but they are up. So are vacancies.

The key point is the ratio between new rentals and new condos: rentals winning by a wide margin, especially downtown. Thousands of new units are coming on the market in the next few months. That shows you where the money currently is - and it's likely to stay there because even if rents go up, they would still have to double to reach the carrying costs of most property in Manhattan, and that won't happen because there is no leverage in renting.

So, the inexorable decline in property prices will continue and new rental units will come on the market, driving down prices. Especially conversions of old office buildings that can't be retrofitted to meet modern needs: hence the abundance of conversions downtown: Perfectly good buildings just ripe for residences.

Personally, I'm seriously considering Ft. Lauderdale, where prices are down 50% from the peak. THERE there may be a bottom approaching w/i a year or so (unless there's a huge spike in l/t interest rates, which if the Fed doesn't stop soon there will be).

@STEVE: Be careful in FL. I think there are a lot of bargains but the recovery will be slow. You need to shop for properties with a "point of difference". Something that is special about the location (waterfront) or area (enclave, island, golf front, desirable school district) that makes it different and SELLABLE from all the other properties that are for sale in FL. People are figuring this out, and the desirable areas are up in price from last year. Otherwise, the situation is much like Vegas, they can build duplicates of your property from here to the horizon and it will be hard to compete.

Part of the reason that Manhattan is so expensive/desirable is that it is an island, and you can't build competing properties ad infinitum.

Sky is the limit needsadvice !

Sledge, someday we will get you to read ALL the words. . . LOL

jason, no idea why you included me in that list. I started the thread titled "Mixed results on recent rental market." That's hardly denying rents are going up. In general though, maybe just relax a bit? I dunno, thought I'd help relieve the tension...

Jason, it must be very frustrating participating in a written forum when you are unable to understand what you are reading. Inonada is not saying rents aren't going up, just that they are not going up everywhere. Is that why you're swearing so much?

Beats me, but here it is:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/719989-rental-220-riverside-blvd-lincoln-square-new-york
12/05/2008 Previously Listed by Corcoran at $13,900.
02/27/2009 Corcoran Listing rented. Last priced at $12,000.
12/14/2010 Listed by Corcoran at $13,500.
01/14/2011 Price decreased by 4% to $12,995.
02/16/2011 Price decreased by 8% to $12,000.
04/13/2011 Listing is no longer available.

Note the 4 months it sat trying to achieve a price 10%-ish higher than 2009 to no avail.

This is funny. Let's look at last year's report. No talk of concessions:

http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MRMO1Q10.pdf

And you seem to ignore that average rental price is down 10% from last year, and down 10% from 4 years ago. Can we all agree that concessions were not higher back then, and that CPI was 10% lower, yielding a 20% real drop _still_ since Q1 2007?

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2011 1 2,269 3,008 4,644 7,485 12,321 3,445
2010 4 2,319 3,069 4,722 7,558 12,941 3,499
2010 3 2,306 3,053 4,414 6,851 9,903 3,460
2010 2 2,268 3,159 4,945 8,024 10,290 3,710
2010 1 2,417 3,094 5,021 8,653 12,197 3,812
2009 4 2,253 3,026 5,228 7,515 12,749 3,789
2009 3 2,252 3,026 5,048 7,603 12,925 3,759
2009 2 2,304 2,874 5,018 8,849 15,430 3,839
2009 1 2,221 3,200 5,375 8,760 15,670 4,142
2008 4 2,294 3,245 5,257 9,378 18,825 3,958
2008 3 2,441 3,344 5,139 8,676 26,172 3,796
2008 2 2,449 3,311 5,250 9,564 16,814 3,806
2008 1 2,388 3,281 5,297 9,287 27,461 3,850
2007 4 2,315 3,303 5,272 7,846 13,527 3,801
2007 3 2,282 3,308 5,122 8,035 12,378 3,757
2007 2 2,257 3,313 4,895 8,016 13,655 3,704
2007 1 2,261 3,276 5,116 8,209 17,183 3,762

So maly - are you satisfied now that people are arguing about this? :)

"Jason, it must be very frustrating participating in a written forum when you are unable to understand what you are reading. Inonada is not saying rents aren't going up, just that they are not going up everywhere. Is that why you're swearing so much?"

Agreed...

Rents have gone up a bit in the last 6 months in the places I've been watching.... but they're also still lower than they were a few years ago. All in all - and inonada's numbers show it - there really hasn't been the rent runups folks have been claiming would happen. Not sure we've even beat inflation.... as much as landlords might really, really want to pass along cost increases, doesn't look like they can.

question is, where will we be in a year from now? Id say theres a greater probability rents go higher than lower from here.