is the rental market slowing down

Actually, the rental market is just starting to heat up.

Scott K
BNond New York

NYCREAgent, can you name a time when you were saying the rental market was doing anything other than heating up? ;-)

I remember you as quite the ratioanlizer:
"clients sometimes force agents to resort to shady tactics in order to survive."

Btw, I'll also say the point you try and make here has been shown to be wrong already... there has been a consistent increase in rents over the past 6 months plus, well documented here with several reports.

If you think the rise is just starting, then perhaps you should spend more time on research.

Actually, I take that back... it is more than 6 months. On my last renewal a few months back, I looked at the stats... showed almost a year of increases.

I know plenty of people who are getting substantial rent hikes. Also, I don't know if the pace of rentals is so directly correlated to economic news. People buy because they are feeling prosperous, rent because they need somewhere to live.

> I know plenty of people who are getting substantial rent hikes.

Of course the basis might be market movements that occured 6-9 months ago, more if we're talking multi-year leases.

Assuming nothing uber-dramatic is going on, rents typically are going up from April to August, then go back down after November.

time frame at will

Apartment vacancies fall, rents edge up
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/06/us-usa-apartments-idUSTRE7353CD20110406

Rental market swings back in favor of landlords
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42557802/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

tomato, tomatoe, gash , cave

I'm familiar with seasonal rental patterns. But economic and world news is so grim I'm
wondering how that news is impacting the rental market.

What is the typical rental increase percentage on a one year lease renewal?

Could be improving the rental market if anything in Manhattan anyway, since there is still a lot of money and people may not want to buy as much

Fairway is correct. It you are worried you will not buy which means more rental demand and therefore higher prices.

AvalonBay Reports Jump in FFO as Apartment Rents Increase (1)
2011-04-27 20:32:24.271 GMT

(Updates with comment from analyst in third paragraph.)

By Oshrat Carmiel
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- AvalonBay Communities Inc., the
second-largest publicly traded U.S. apartment owner, said first-
quarter funds from operations climbed as rising demand helped
the landlord increase rents.
FFO rose to $93.5 million, or $1.08 a share, from $79.3
million, or 96 cents, a year earlier, the Alexandria, Virginia-
based real estate investment trust said in a statement today.
Analysts projected $1.05 a share, the average of 20 estimates in
a Bloomberg survey. FFO is a measure of cash flow used by REITs.
“It’s higher rents and it’s contributions from development
projects that are coming on line,” Haendel St. Juste, a New
York-based REIT analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc., said in
an interview before the report. “You’re not only full, or close
to full, but you’re full enough to be pushing rent increases.”
Landlords have been able to boost leasing rates as home
ownership sits at a 13-year low and an improving economy spurs
more people to move out of shared residences. U.S. apartment
rents climbed almost 4.7 percent in the 12 months through
February, the biggest increase since the third quarter of 2006,
according to Axiometrics Inc., a Dallas-based research company.
U.S. apartment vacancies dropped to the lowest in almost
three years in the first quarter as a weak homebuying market
fueled rental demand, property-research firm Reis Inc. said on
April 6. The vacancy rate declined to 6.2 percent from 8 percent
a year earlier.

New Communities

AvalonBay completed development on three communities in
2010, totaling about 1,260 apartments, according to a regulatory
filing. Avalon Fort Greene, a 631-unit building in New York’s
Brooklyn borough that was completed in the fourth quarter, was
90 percent occupied as of Dec. 31. Avalon Walnut Creek, a 418-
apartment complex completed last quarter near Oakland,
California, was 73 percent full, the company said.
“Now is a very good time to be delivering apartment
product,” said St. Juste, who has an “outperform” rating on
AvalonBay. “Between this year and next year the number of
apartments taken out of service will be more than what will be
added to the marketplace.”
AvalonBay started work on about $667 million in new
developments in 2010, the company said in a March presentation.
St. Juste estimates that the REIT will end 2011 with $1.5
billion in projects under development, according to a February
report.

2011 Forecast

The company expects to meet or exceed the high end of its
earlier forecast for 2011 funds from operations, according to
today’s statement. In February, AvalonBay predicted full-year
FFO of $4.50 to $4.75 a share, compared with $4 in 2010.
“Our operating results reflect strengthening apartment
fundamentals that accelerated during the quarter,” Chief
Executive Officer Bryce Blair said in the statement. “Job
growth, particularly among young workers, is driving higher
rental demand while new supply remains muted. We expect
fundamentals will continue to accelerate during the year.”
Funds from operations excludes depreciation and gains or
losses from property sales, among other items. The measure
doesn’t conform to generally accepted accounting principles.
AvalonBay reported earnings after the close of regular U.S.
trading. The shares rose 79 cents to $126.63 as of 4:15 p.m. in
New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They climbed 28
percent in the past 12 months, compared with the 30 percent
advance in the Bloomberg REIT Apartment Index of 13 companies.

WHy are you guys reporting this anectodel stuff when Prudential, Citi Habitats, and TREGNY have all put out notes specifically saying that Manhattan rents are up YOY and QoQ in 1Q2011, and that vacancies are down?

because its a broker you're talking to...

marco/jason:

1. those are backward looking data
2. they also do not reflect full effects of Japan, Libya, $100+ oil, rising inflatiom
3. my question was directed to effects of those events on the post-March rental market

I don't think Jason is an agent, he's far too stupid.

Even if Japan is Chernobyl and gas is expensive, people in Manhattan will still have to rent if they need to.

Japan may not be so bad...Nikkei has made up almost all of its lost ground

so only down 7% is a triumph?

Cc, where is hfs?

Look in the mirror

Dude, try harder. For fun, tell me how many se handles you've accused of being hfs? You won't (or can't) because of either senility or because you are stubborn. Either way your a cocksucker and the world would be better without you.

Dude?

But if you're not hfscomm1 (which of course you are)..why are you egging is on?

Go on. For all the folks here who aren't that well versed, show the depths of your paranoia. How many different "handles" does this mysterious hfs person have. Name them for the nice people.

According to SE they shut down 200. How many did they miss?