Commodities Rout Drives Oil Below $100

Silver down 30% in 5 days:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SLV+Interactive#symbol=SLV;range=5d

I've heard that the Fed had engineered a dollar bonfire where they were burning dollar bills, which is causing massive deflation and a classic "flight to fiat". The drop in oil is because they were powering electric plants with the dollar-bill bonfire, reduced the need for oil.

riversider is trying to buy all the cheese in fairway, before the price goes down just to make his point.

Silver had to come down, it was rising at a parabolic rate. But look where it came from? And margin requirements were raised which flushed out weak positions.
As far as oil goes, Oil is up big from just about any time frame, so it went down a bit. Going out
China and India are using more of it and there are no new discoveries of oil. It can only go up.

Sounds like what you guys discovered is volatility, not a new price direction. Also dips are not the same as long term secular declines.
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/42909575/

Oil prices are likely to continue rising because the world's oil reserves are dwindling, but silver is likely to come down because it rose too fast, famous investor and commodities bull Jim Rogers told CNBC Thursday.

"I do know that silver [XAG= 34.95 0.28 (+0.81%) ] went up 25 percent in a month and that can’t last so that’ll have to come down," he added.

"It can only go up."

Just like RE. Are you loading up on it now that you've seen your dip?

Actually No. I built positions when Gold was 1/4 of where it is now(many years ago). Ditto for Oil.
Every portfolio should have 5-10% exposure to Gold. Believe the same is true for oil, but with different exposures.

I see, all talk no action yet again.

I believe Buffett's portfolio has no gold. You should explain it to him, maybe see if you can get that slot that will soon empty up.

unonada

You are stupid. I am on my Bloomberg right now. The Dow Jones-UBS Commidity indes is down 9% since April 29. Don't try and cherry pick this and that. Across the board, on average commidity prices are down 9% in one week. According to your theory of inflation=commodity prices, we have massive and rapid deflation right now.

lol

You are stupid. I am on my Bloomberg right now. The Dow Jones-UBS Commidity indes is up an annual equivalent rate of 17% from 12/31/08 to 3/31/11. Don't try and cherry pick this and that. Across the board, on average commidity prices are down 9% in one week.

Also Jacko,
The Rogers Elements index is up 24% annual equivalent from 12/31/08 to 4/29/11 or 67% total. Seems you like to cherry pick your indices.

http://www.elementsetn.com/pdfs/ELEMENTS-RJI.pdf

really, commodities rose THAT much but consumer prices here barely budged? how could that have happened?

fascinating. guess it proves that commodities are a relatively limited factor in most end-product pricing (gasoline a very notable exception, of course).

hey, w67, stay away from cream cheese, no nutritional value at all.

really, commodities rose THAT much but consumer prices here barely budged? how could that have happened?

You're looking at the wrong yardsticks. Are you researching inflation for brick?

and he's off!!!!!!! wonder how many times he'll reply to himself.

ar, we can make it interesting. Over/under of 7?

Oh, silly Riversider. The DJ-UBS Commodities Index was 109 ten years ago. It was 237 July 2008. It is 159 today. That is an annual CAGR of only 3.9% over ten years. And its down 33% from its peak three years ago.

You are such a silly man.

...what YOU are talking about is commodity price volatility, not inflation for all goods and services. So silly.

"Sounds like what you guys discovered is volatility"

"The Dow Jones-UBS Commidity indes is up an annual equivalent rate of 17% ..."

I guess you haven't yet discovered volatility yourself. See if you can figure this one out. According to yesterday, oil is down the annual equivalent rate of -3000%.

But many energy analysts and economists predict that oil and gas prices will remain stubbornly high.

Supplies remain constrained by turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, oil specialists said, and there is always the possibility that conflict could cut production in Nigeria. At the same time, expanding economies like China and India continue to drive the growth in oil consumption.

“Nothing has changed, except psychology and taking profits,” Allen Sinai, chief global economist of Decision Economics, a consulting firm, said of this week’s selloff in the oil futures market. “This is a correction, and not a shift in trend.”

Light sweet crude, the benchmark of New York trading, fell below $100 on Thursday for the first time since March, but it remains almost 30 percent higher than a year ago. At the close on Friday, oil for June delivery was down $2.62 at $97.18 a barrel.

Corrections, even sharp ones, are not unusual as commodity prices follow longer trends up. A Barclays Capital research note on Friday observed that on several occasions last year, weak economic data pushed oil prices down to $70 a barrel. “Those periods were indeed short-lived,” Barclays noted, before oil prices continued their march upward.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/07/business/07oil.html?_r=1&ref=business

ar/inonada, good catching you'all on the board... .it's been awhile... did riverdouche call me Jacko? you meant jerk-off right?

That's like if the Seal Team 6 went in and gave Osama a weggie and left....

rs seems to be feeling his spring something. I wonder if he could possibly recall goldman's $200 oil call about three years ago. hey, maybe rs is an analyst for GS? no, not that smart, although even more prone to really bad market calls. REALLY bad.

glorious day, no?

>I believe Buffett's portfolio has no gold. You should explain it to him, maybe see if you can get that slot that will soon empty up.

Running a stock price chart of GLD vs. BRK-A, over the past 5 years, 2 years, 1 year, year to date ... better to own GLD.

But Berkshire also owns no tech companies. No Coke or P&G-size stakes in Google, or Apple. Maybe we should explain tech to Warren Buffett too.

bjw2103 before making fun of Riversider, you seem to have a mutombo and Wbuttocks problem. Try to fight back first before pointing out Riversider's problems.

>rs seems to be feeling his spring something. I wonder if he could possibly recall goldman's $200 oil call about three years ago. hey, maybe rs is an analyst for GS? no, not that smart, although even more prone to really bad market calls. REALLY bad.

What is it that you do for a living aboutready? (legally - put aside the extortion racket you run (or ran) at Brick Underground)

What makes you so smart aboutready? What are your educational credentials?

Did you make any predictions aboutready? Did you sell your real estate propert(ies) in 2007 at the top?

"Maybe we should explain tech to Warren Buffett too."

We should leave that to the genius who declares "Every portfolio should have 5-10% exposure to Tech."

I don't see that quote anywhere above.

This one's for you, w67th. Make sure you read it all, it just keeps getting better.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41867379/CNBC_Buffett_Transcript_Part_2_The_Zebra_That_Got_Away

BUFFETT: ...And the real test of whether you would like it as an investment is whether you would be happy if it never got quoted again, and just in terms of what the asset did for you. But that doesn't— I will say this about gold, if you took all of the gold in the world it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side. So if you took all the gold in the world, we could have a cube that went down there 67 feet...

BECKY: Uh-huh.

BUFFETT: ...67 feet high and that would be the whole thing. Now for that same cube of gold it would be worth at today's market prices about $7 trillion. That's probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States. So you could have a choice of owning a third of all the stocks in the United States or you could have a choice of owning that little block of gold, which can't do anything but kind of shine there and make you feel like Midas or Croesus or something of the sort.

Now, for $7 trillion, there are roughly a billion of farm— acres of farmland in the United States. They're valued at about $2 1/2 trillion. It's about half the continental United States, this farmland. You could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven ExxonMobiles, and you could have $1 trillion of walking around money. And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67-foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, you know, I mean touching it and fondling it occasionally, you know, and then saying, you know, `Do something for me,' and it says, `I don't do anything. I just stand here and look pretty.' And the alternative to that was to have all the farmland of the country, everything, cotton, corn, soybeans, seven ExxonMobiles. Just think of that. Add $1 trillion of walking around money. I, you know, maybe call me crazy but I'll take the farmland and the ExxonMobiles.

BECKY: All right, that makes sense.  Carl, you've got a question, too?

CARL: I'm still trying to get the image of Warren fondling a giant block of gold out of my mind.

JOE: Yeah, and his fondling it occasionally was what stuck with me.

BUFFETT: Well, bring me a giant— bring me a giant block— bring me a giant block of gold and you'll see me fondle like you've never seen before.

Hilarical.

BTW, the 46 inch 3-D 1080p TV I just got at best buy costs the same as the 720p 37 inch 2D TV I bought there five years ago.

Gadgets always come down in price. But this is not deflation. Early adopters pay high prices because the factory is new. Those that purchase late in the cycle benefit from the factory already having been paid for. Then the cycle begins again when the product requires new production. 1080p vs 720P is a questionable advantage unless you're a gamer or rent blue-ray DVD's.

If you want a nice TV you're shelving out basically the same money you would've two years ago , with some added bells and whistles that make you think you bought a better product. Maybe you did.. maybe you didn't.

I have the same h.d. plasma for the last seven years and it plays great. When Time Warner or FIOS broadcast 1080(non-interlaced), which they won't, then the new sets might be interesting.

They broadcast in 1080i. The bigger thing about a 1080p screen is the 1080, not p vs. i. I personally avoid everything but 1080i in terms of stations. Life's too short to watch lower resolution IMO, or TVs with bad black levels. But I can understand how the cream cheese eating public would be more interested in other things, as is their prerogative.

I'll clarify nobody broadcasts 1080p. Plasma's for years have supported 1080i, which as you say is what is broadcast. So the cream cheese looks just as good on the plasma bought today, last year or 5 years ago.

cream cheese is ugly, no matter where or how you're viewing it.

really, buy some better quality food, will you? fruits, veggies, even a good sharp cheddar, not that fake cheese stuff.

I guess Kraft is not an advertiser on Brick Underground.

That's funny stuff Inonada. Almost as funny as people sitting on $2mm studios in manhattan when they could never dream of earning $2mm in their lifetime.

So what would you rather have sell at bubble prices and have a $2mm in cash to sit out shitstorm while you rent a 2 bdrm or 'own' that $2mm studio and fondle your rainbow painted walls all day?

I'm with Buffett on this one, I'd rather have some extra cash to walk around with.

Fktard riversider knows 1080. Maybe a cream cheese eating cable guy with a lucky coop buy for a blowjob circa 1978.

"i'll clarify nobody broadcasts 1080p."

Blue Ray, dummy. PPV movies on a few outlets too (DTV). And finally some YouTube videos.

Oh and I guess we have to panic about deflation again today, right?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-11/asian-stocks-gain-on-economic-outlook.html