Will The Last One Out, Please Shut Off The Lights!

And then you're gonna hear the same bullshit from posters here who think baby boomers won't leave the state 'cause they want to stay close to their kids! I called bullshit on that from the beginning. When these people will crunch the numbers and realize they can't afford to live in one of the most expensive city in the world, concessions will be made and they'll pick cheaper state to settle down.

I actually think this article is pretty well written considering its the Daily News. I agree with everything in it.

I would note, however, that NYC does have a large population of families that *can't* easily leave the city. Lots of people have great jobs that are tied to the city and so commutable options are Westchester, NJ or LI. (1) Lots of people dont want to commute; and (2) Not sure about Westchester property taxes, but LI and NJ taxes are actually more $ than staying in the city. Not uncommon to have 15-30K property taxes for a house in those areas.

the issue is the city and state taxes. having a family earning $500K per year and paying NJ taxes of $25K, they'll end up ahead then staying in the city.

These constitute a minority Ab as they belong to the 3% top earners. Among them are "talented" foreigners hired by Wall street who will decide to move back to their own home land when there're done!

Sledge - not necessarily. Im in the group I described. Not a 3% earner, however my job is tied to NYC. Yes, I could move to the burbs, but when would I see my child/spouse? I have many friends in the same position. We live with the costs/downsides of living in NYC because we choose time with over commuting. Not saying we like it - most of us don't!!!! and bitch about it all the time - but its reality. My solution is that we're moving to Brooklyn or Queens next year, at least we'll get more space for the $.

good let them move... anyone who cant handle the shoddy economy in NY should thank their lucky stars they dont live almost anywhere else. while we r in a dire & pathetic situation these days we also have to remember that were still doing better than most. & its all relative to where you live since i cant make the same $ in Georgia that i can under the fruitful tree that is NYC. If my salary is cut in half then who cares if my house costs half as well. & I also believe that for every person that moves out of the state there will be a new person ready to take their place. what r the options ??? Id love to know where all these people are planning to move to. if the grass is so much greener elsewhere than why wait to move.???

Yah.

Heard this story in the late early 70's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"
Heard this story in the late early 80's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"
Heard this story in the late early 90's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"
Heard this story in the late early 00's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"
Hearing this story in the late early 10's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"

Will the last one to beat this dead horse please shut off the lights?

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that not even 10% of New York's population will leave in the next 5 years. Who wants to take me up on a bet?

Right, that horse has been dog food forever.

Technologic, I think the survey includes young adults who recently graduated and can't find a job or make a decent living in NY as well as Baby boomers on the verge to retire. These two only constitute a non negligent part of the Adult group surveyed. I agree that mobility is more difficult when you started a family and you want to move everyone along with you some place else.

Although New York STATE hasn't lost population, we're losing relative to the rest of the country. In terms of population we went from the number 1 state in the 60's to the number 2 state in the 70's, to currently the number 3 state and will be number 4 in the next couple of years.

"Heard this story in the late early 70's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"

The City did lose population in the 70's for any number of reasons.

Heard this story in the late early 70's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"

They were running out of the city like water through a sive.
RE was a joke and those are the years that your Uncle Herman bought the whole building for 650K...THE~WHOLE BUILDING...good thing or his no good son Sheldon wouldn't have what to eat.

Heard this story in the late early 80's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"

RE was still cheap if you were brave. Artist friends were living in squater building in the east village, brave souls were trying their hand at townhouse restoration in Harlem. Lower east side seeds were beging to be planted.

Heard this story in the late early 90's... "everyone's gonna leave NYC - too expensive!"

Early 90's/late 80's the city was gett'in crack-vile littered unlivable...ushering in Guliani time etc.

Sometime they come...sometimes they go...it's all about the buck.

This type of article is stupid. Takes an isolated stat of uncertain meaning and then the OP goes off drawing all sorts of unsupported conclusions. Lazy, uncritical intellectual analysis. Drivle. It is hard to know what to draw from the stat since you describe it in a vacuum without perspective. What was this figure in years gone by for one thing...maybe this is an improvement! As written, who knows? And are these people who say they will leave saying it will be a permanent relocation or that they think they'll come back after a time away? Does it include teens off to attend college? Are these people working now and contributing to the tax base? Are they on welfare roles? Are these even property owners who property taxes affect?

kyle: "then the OP goes off drawing all sorts of unsupported conclusions."

Can you quote a few of these unsupported conclusions?? Talk about Lazy analysis!

we left for jersey to spread out, but we'll probably come back when the kids are older. we plan to seriously consider boarding school for high school, so that may be the window of our jersey life. it doesn't take much for a new yorker to want to leave. just venture beyond city walls and see how normal people live.

military school. builds character.

"having a family earning $500K per year and paying NJ taxes of $25K, they'll end up ahead then staying in the city. "

WRONNGGG - to an extent...

NY allows work deductions, property tax deduction, mtge interest, etc, etc, and gives higher standard deduction, whereas NJ is a GROSS INCOME TAX state, meaning they could care less about any of your deductions that you take on Sch A of Federal (save maybe medical subject to 2% which would be tough to break if ur making 500k)..

* meant to say NY allows work work deductions, charity deductions, property tax deduction, mtge interest, etc, etc, most of what you see on Sch A of federal, whereas NJ doesn't

Yes, people will move out. By the thousands.

But where in the story does it say how many will move in to take their place?

It conveniently does not mention the people that will move in. It does not say that the net population will drop, it says that many people are planning to move. When has that not been true? There's always been people thinking/planning to move out of NYC.

And plenty of people planning to move into NYC.

RealEstate: the OP's thread heading alone is alarmist nonsense. Give me a break. Needsadvice makes another very valid point here. And while life in NJ may be more "sane" in some people's minds, you are still in NJ. No thank you. I have one life to live. I'd rather by in the middle of it all--not on the sidelines.

i agree that people come, people go, that's life. but i think the factor that IS kind of a wild card is the upper middle class baby boom of the last decade and the military industrial complex that has sprouted to service it. will they go? will they take the doggy spas with them? they could!

you could commute to the middle, and retreat to the side when it gets too crowded

"OP's thread heading alone is alarmist"

If that's alarmist you had better move out of NYC, there are many more things to get alarmed by in this town.

Also the article was refering to New York STATE which is losing population relative to the rest of the country. If you don't keep up with the national population growth, you're losing representation in the House of Representatives.

"I have one life to live. I'd rather by in the middle of it all--not on the sidelines."

Spoken with true tunnel vision.

NWT. So did you buy enough re in nyc to be rich? Or were you a perpetual student housing kinda gal? FLMAOzzzzz.

80's in nyc. Falco is right. Entire buildings for the cost of a studio in lincoln center.

It's funny, the people who couldn't afford to leave nyc back then somehow think they 'own' nyc now and pound on the virtues of nyc. Sorry, you rode the city back up, which rode up USA and peace dividends of the soviet collapse and Chinese acceptance of our cheap slave labor with Chinese bosses. FLMAOzzzzz

Remember students. Prices are determined in the margins. The .00001 % of apple share that trades on a day determine valuation of the company. So ya think if 1% loss of manhattan population won't determine your net worth on a 3G fm CPw coop-> I got unicorns to sell ya. Fktards

"The most cited factors for flight were New York's notorious cost of living, its highest-in-the-nation tax burden and its chronic shortage of jobs."

Yes, because as we all know, NY is the only state in the contry with high unemployment. Thank goodnews no other state has the same problem!

In fact, you could write the exact same article that the Daily News wrote about half the states in the country. You could have an article in the LA Times about California. You could have the exact same article about NJ. Abot Michigan. About Ohio.

"you could write the exact same article that the Daily News wrote about HALF the states in the country."

That's the point, people will be moving to the other 25 states. LOL!

North Dakota only has 3.6% unemployment. I have no doubt millions of people will be fleeing NY for ND first thing tomorrow...

67 ur always FLUAO.....u really get a kick out of urself huh??? fktard..

Agree with Helphome's 2 posts, and with the last 3 sentences especially of kylewest's first post.

Also agree with needsadvice

socialist, yes there is unemployment in other places, but people pay a premium to live in new york. it's not a necessity, but a very expensive indulgence. people are always ready to sacrifice OTHER indulgences to stay here, but when they just can't cut anything else, they go. and the reason i keep mentioning families is with kids it's not as easy as saying new york is the cat's meow and that's it, there are other needs and expenses as you are responsible for other people, and those needs should ideally be a priority.

But in a lot of cheaper states, there are no jobs and the jobs you do have pay substantially less.

RealEstateNY: I have tunnel vision? Really? Makes more sense that you are the afflicted one. After all, I'm not the one staring at subterranian tubes from the inside twice a day as I schlep from my compromised life across the Hudson to Manhattan and back.

About a year or so ago Stevejhx was all about Charlotte becoming the next NYC. And here we go again. What's next to replace NYC? Little Rock? or San Antonio? Kansas City? Yeah. NYC is over. The world is over. RE is over. Life is over. I'll continue this Monday--I'm off to the Hamptons.

"What's next to replace NYC?"

Probably Bejing! LOL

"NYC is over. The world is over. RE is over. Life is over. I'll continue this Monday--I'm off to the Hamptons."

Drama Queen!

P.S. No one is impressed by the Hamptons anymore! LOL!

Alright. A little dramatic. I'll own it. But RE, like the Hamptons, is not--or at least should not--be about impressing anyone. It's about one's own chosen quality of life. You live within your means and make the choices that make you happy. For me, owning in GV makes me very happy. Very, very happy to be frank. I've explained why many times over the years on here. Owning works for me very well. And escaping to the Hamptons to dig in my garden and enjoy my friends and be inspired by the magic light also makes me very happy, too. Living all week across the river in a house with a view of the place I'd rather be living, though, would not make me happy. That's me. I also didn't want children and don't think about schools or extra bedrooms or how to pay for camp or college. If I had kids and financial constraints made it impossible for me to reasonably live in Manhattan, and if I had to move to NJ, I suppose I'd be focused on all the reasons it is just as well I couldn't buy in Manhattan and live there. I'd be all excited that a silly sloppy article said NYC is over and everyone is fleeing, just as I had to. Psychologists call it the need for cognitive consonance. I understand. I won't be snarky about it any longer. I'm sorry if I made you feel bad.

Manhattan's population is flat to 1970, while the country's is up 50%. Clearly, a lot of buildings have been added. So despite the bitching and moaning of Manhattanites, people are clearly on average living in larger places.

KW: snark away. No one will get offended by a little tussle.

Does your place in the Hamptons not have Internet? You know, not a good time to be in bucolic-setting houses without an Internet connection. Do you want me to download the SE conversations to a flash drive and shuttle it out to you tomorrow?

>Does your place in the Hamptons not have Internet?

Really, you get NO cell phone signal on your iPhone and iPad?

so kyle, The Hamptons is the only place outside manhattan where people garden and enjoy their friends and lifestyle? and don't spend hours staring longingly at the glittery glamourous delight that is manhattan across the river before turning away in shame, their eyes welled up with tears of defeat and faces surely covered in soot. sometimes during the full moon, you'll hear the echos of the most bone chilling howl of despair and you'll know in your bones that's the sound of pure pain.

What's new Lucille?

oh you know, same old

You can thank Bloomberg for high taxes. Bloomberg likes illegal immigrants, which cost the state $5 billion a year.

dang, socialist is that you? oh, i get it. its friday the 13th and you have eerily taken on the persona of rs.

Socialist, did we not have illegals before 2001? Did taxes rates in NYC and NYS go up only since 2001?

"I'd be all excited that a silly sloppy article said NYC is over and everyone is fleeing."

The article was about New York STATE; no where did it or I mention New York City. Try re-reading it!

Talk about being City-Centric. I guess as far as you're concerned the City only has 1 Borough. LOL.

But......... the city DOES only have one borough.........doesn't it?

according to census:
2010 NYC pop. = 8,175,133
2010 NYS pop. = 19,378,102

NYS pop. decreased 3.7% b/w 1970-1980
NYS pop. decreased 1.6% b/w 1880-1890
all other census measured pop. increases for NYS

Nassau Co. 2010 = 1,339,532 (decreased 1970-1980 AND 1980-1990)
Suffolk Co. 2010 = 1,493,350 (no census year decreases on record)
Westchester 2010 = 949,113 (decreased 1970-1980 and 1870-1880)
Rockland Co. 2010 = 311,687 (decreased 1910-1920)
Putnam Co. 2010 = 99,710 (decreased times in five census)
Orange Co. 2010 = 372,813 (no census year decreases on record)

Total NYC + 6 downstate counties in greater metro area = 12,741,338
Percentage of greater metro area counties to NYS = 65.75% or roughly two-thirds

Equal rights for Upstaters? This is assinine. The MAJORITY of NYS's
population is concentrated in this metro area.

Maybe the gloomers are predicting a massive explosion in NJ and PA commuter populations.

Helpmeownhome. Fk u. Hahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Go turn that key keysherpa. 3186 open houses. FLMAOzzzzz