Index Expected to Show New Low in House Prices

No mistake about it. Things could over-shoot on the down side. But real estate prices are also driven by the employment picture and REO inventory and not every part of the country has the same overhangs..

Real Estate will come back.... in some areas sooner than others.

Fking laughing my azz off while peeing into riversider's cream cheese platter.

The easiest bubble ever to call, the easiest bubble ever to trade and make money off of....RIVERSIDER's ADVICE..." the sun'll come up tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar... .tomorrow...."

FK, you'll cash your last social security chk long before you'll see your coop ever hit the highs of 2006/2007. Thatz a w67 guarantee...

Some other noteworthy w67 guarantes
This was the greatest nyc re bubble of ALL time.
Sell NOW and rent = 2008/09/10' call
Double bottom... no doubt.....

And finally, don't forget... I said we'd see a double bottom then the thong comes off.... watch out below, the spincter is opening and it looks like a big one.... $500ps

It took brains to call and act on the real estate bubble in 2005/2006/2007.
In 2011 it's thinking with a rear view mirror and following the herd.

but...

how do you feel about his pissing in your cream cheese?

yummy?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/even-more-negative-sentiment-for.html

"As I've noted before, I've been looking for a change in sentiment for homeowership. A shift in sentiment doesn't mean housing prices have bottomed - it just means the market is getting closer. In previous busts it seemed like negative sentiment lasted for a few years."

RS, really, even after attitudes turn positive prices may very well continue to fall. put the pom poms back in the closet. it's not time yet. but you look fetching in that cheerleading skirt.

So - question - how does this affect -

1.) The super prime Manhattan $ 5,000,000++ market.

2.) The general Manhattan (south of 110th) $ 2,000,000 and under market.

is it me or did Douglas C. Yearley Jr., chief executive of Toll Brothers, a company with interests across the country including new york, being quoted in the new york times, just tell us how he really feels?

“Most people still want the big house with the big lot in the desirable school district in the suburbs. No one ever renovated the kitchen or redid a room for the kids in a rental,” Mr. Yearley said. “I think — I hope — we’ll be O.K.”

We'll have to wait for the next Streeteasy Condo index, and the next Miller-Samuel report. We can only look backward, and it seems to me Manhattan is continuing along the path of stable prices/low volume, with a restored seasonality for the past 18 months.

"In a recent paper, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that the notion that homeownership builds more wealth than investing was true only about half the time.

“For many households in many years, renting and investing the saved cash flow has built more wealth than homeownership,” the economist, Jordan Rappaport, concluded. "

stand up and take a bow those who deserve it, it's in the times! you're legit!

time for another thousand post flame war....

>columbiacounty
about 3 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse but...
how do you feel about his pissing in your cream cheese?
yummy?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/23611-columbiacounty-gave-up-eating-shit-years-ago

>but you look fetching in that cheerleading skirt.

eww, now we know a little too much about aboutready's fetishes

It took brains to call and act on the tulip bubble in 1635/1636/1637.
In 1641 it's thinking with a rear view mirror and following the herd.

Tulips will come back.... in some areas sooner than others.

Ino: Ha!

I'm wondering what effect the meltdown in Europe will have on RE. There are plenty of important economists that say if Greece defaults, it will be worse that Lehman Bros collapse vis a vis the credit market. That's why the ECB is pissing itself trying to get this settled--they are willing to sell everything in Greece that isn't tied down -- post offices, islands, statues. In case of default, The ECB will have serious problems considering how much debt they hold. That is why ECB member Lorenzo Schmagi was quoted as saying there is no orderly way for Greece to default. It will be akin to the death penalty. I'd say those words are rather alarmist. I have read at least 40 articles from reliable sources this weekend -- they all contradict each other . Buckle your seat belts, as they say.

It'll probably have a bigger effect on European RE. From what I can tell London and Paris and whatnot are just as big a shell game as NY. All just waiting for an excuse.

The NAR (I can't believe I'm quoting them) expects rents to increase by over 3% this year and more than 4% next year. The rental increases just make the BUY vs RENT debate tilt more toward rent.

The crisis in Europe at the margin just makes investing in the United States just that much more attractive. Regardless of our economic prospects we are seen as the safest place to invest in the world. Chinese, Russians etc, invest here because they know that our government unlike theirs does not randomly usurp property. Europeans with money see our budget deficit issues as minor compared to the issues affecting the euro.

"It took brains to call and act on the real estate bubble in 2005/2006/2007."

Thank you, RS - that's the nicest thing you've ever said to me.

You're now looking at a massive commodities / stocks / financial asset bubble that is soon to correct, and it will not be pretty. The same policies that caused the dot.com bubble, the real-estate bubble, the Lehman collapse, are being employed today to "revive" the economy. Unfortunately, all the data show that it is having the exact opposite effect.

At this point it is a pyramid scheme, and when the money is withdrawn the effect will be devastating.

RS, remind us, when/what did you buy?

Over a decade ago..the last time. That's as specific as I'll be.

"It is official, the new bottom is here."

Sorry to nitpick, but I have to quibble with one word here. The article predicts a new LOW, not a new BOTTOM. When the market is described as being locked in a downward spiral, it's optimistic to conclude that a bottom has been reached.

And the Chicago PMI skids, and housing has entered into a double-dip (and continues to fall), and stocks and commodities nonetheless surge.

The only intelligent analysis I have read:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rip-reaganomics-revolution-1981-2011-2011-05-31

We are setting ourselves up for the hugest crash ever. Stocks DO NOT go up 30% when the economy is slowing down and stopping. QEII is foolhardy economics.

sideline - you are correct - should have said "new low is here" - maybe it is a bottom fixation. But as the DJ says when the kids are playing limbo "how low can you go?"

This really has been one crazy long government assisted bubble. Crazy low rates and 8k tax credits are just last gasps to mantain bubble inflation. It's like that floater you take with you on vacation...started losing air on the third day and will not be coming home. It's a slow leak that no patch will fix. The only thing that will screw the re buying party is inflation of everything else.

Thanks, RS. Has there ever been a time when you were bearish on RE?

Falco, there is no inflation because the Fed doesn't count it anymore.

see financial page of 5/30 ny'er--the "Billion Prices Project"--a great idea--unfortunately the MIT site that displayed the index info has been taken down, sparking all sorts of commentary re government interference--the MIT data confirmed that US inflation is grossly understated

2000. Flmaoz. No wonder riversider is a perma bull poster child for nyc re. He bought pre 9-11., got scared shitless when terrorist attack came, somehow by sheer stupidity did not sell.

Every year he did not sell, got handsomely rewarded by 'buy now or be priced out forever' while he coasted for his union job retirement to kick in.

So he can honestly say 'housesitting is not just a hobby, it's a career!' Flmaoz.

Fktards like riversider are selfish old fks, whose only question in life is 'did I get mine bf the bubble took off.'. I bet riversider bgt tulips early too. What'd happened if Gore didn't invent the Internet? Riversider could be mouthing off the his alzheimer roomie all day long.

"and it seems to me Manhattan is continuing along the path of stable prices/low "

stable at 20% off peak is supposed to be a good thing?

Thanks, RS. Has there ever been a time when you were bearish on RE?

---
Yes Very much so. Beginning around 2004.
It started after I saw lines of people camping outside of Developers sales office hoping to buy first round.
The other reasons spring from that awareness.

RS, so why didn't you sell in 2005-2008? By 2004, you were already up 30-40% or so and you had identified a bubble. By 2007/2008, you'd have been up 100%, another 40-50% beyond when you saw bubbly prices. Right now we're 10-20% higher than 2004 prices when you saw a bubble. Why aren't you selling now? What do you think of the people who poke at AR for selling in 2004/2005? Didn't she have brains for calling and acting on the bubble?