This academic paper came out in September, but it certainly still has the power to challenge the bubble crowd. The thesis: There is no real estate bubble. Charles Himmelberg, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve, Christopher Mayer, a real estate professor at the Columbia University business school, and Todd Sinai, an professor of real estate at the Wharton business school, say home... [more]
This academic paper came out in September, but it certainly still has the power to challenge the bubble crowd. The thesis: There is no real estate bubble.
Charles Himmelberg, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve, Christopher Mayer, a real estate professor at the Columbia University business school, and Todd Sinai, an professor of real estate at the Wharton business school, say home ownership costs are only slightly above historic levels.
They developed a measure based on the rental cost of owning a house that accounts for real long-term interest rates and the long-run growth rates of house prices in particular areas. The paper is chock full of tables and charts that illustrate their idea.
But before those in the bubble crowd dismiss it, they should note that the good professors point out that the absence of a bubble doesn’t mean that prices won’t go down. Indeed, they argue that prices are more sensitive than at any other time in 25 years.
– DAMON DARLIN, NYT Online
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Response by anonymous
over 20 years ago
I am no expert, but I am not sure - in NYC, a family working two jobs and making nice money can't afford to buy a decent 2bed these days - that is just not sustainable, I don't think
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Response by mcfm85a
over 19 years ago
Posts: 72
Member since: Dec 2006
ny still cheaper then London, tokyo,hong kong
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Response by anonymous
over 19 years ago
Posts: 8501
Member since: Feb 2006
What is "nice money"? What is a "decent apartment"? These are terms that need to be defined. Nice money in some parts of the US is $100K/year/household - in NYC this is chump change.
I love it when people cite New York magazine for real estate advice - as above. While you're at it, turn to the back of the magazine and get some good leads on a boob job and some numbers for a couple transvestite hookers. Quality reporting.
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Response by millefeuille
over 19 years ago
Posts: 73
Member since: Jan 2007
Sorry I've never read that magazine, so don't know about its whole content. I took a look at that link and found it was interesting fact.
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Response by rvargas
over 19 years ago
Posts: 152
Member since: Nov 2005
Don't be sorry. Mr. Boob Job didn't actually read the article. He just likes to hear himself type.
The article didn't take any editorial stand, just reported on the biggest price drops.
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Response by anonymous
over 19 years ago
Posts: 8501
Member since: Feb 2006
"What bubble?" Um...the huge one that's vanishing before our eyes.
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Response by anonymous
over 19 years ago
Posts: 8501
Member since: Feb 2006
I did read the article, but anybody can find several properties that dropped a lot in price in an attempt to scare people about the market overall. I get NY magazine each week and it thrives on alarmist articles (getting your kids in to NY schools, terror plots, sensational murders, real estate up and down, etc.). My point is that if you want reliable articles on the state of real estate, get it from a reliable source. And the article does effectively take a stance if it only shows one extreme side of the story - the price drops. To be unbiased, they would have to include a piece on properties that do not drop and are sold for ask.
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Response by anonymous
over 19 years ago
Posts: 8501
Member since: Feb 2006
"ny still cheaper then London, tokyo, hong kong"
and our dollar gets weaker by the day.
seriously - people said there was no tech bubble. yet now the industry refers to the internet as web 2.0 - i'm waiting for nyc housing market 2.0
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Response by anonymous
over 19 years ago
Posts: 8501
Member since: Feb 2006
not sure if the NYC will crash...
it's a small island not Phoenix ok?
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Response by anonymous
over 19 years ago
Posts: 8501
Member since: Feb 2006
Only fools are buying now....bubble is bursting just look around!
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Response by anonymous
over 19 years ago
Posts: 8501
Member since: Feb 2006
but we operate in a globe, so as dollar weakens and ny is global - the market becomes more attractive for foreign (esp. european buyers).
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Response by anonymous
over 19 years ago
Posts: 8501
Member since: Feb 2006
"Only fools are buying..."?? Get a life. Some people buy because it makes sense for them - maybe not for you, but it does to them. If you are planning on staying in a place for 5+ years, it makes sense to buy now for many reasons (e.g., tax break, stability, ability to do work in your apt., avoid increasing rents each year, being in a building where people care about it because they own, etc.). One thing is certain - nobody, absolutely nobody, knows when the market will bottom out. If it is there, or close to there, now is a good time. If it keeps going down, that's the "fools" problem, not yours.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
a funny ride through history.... "no bubble". Interesting.
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Response by Otto
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 128
Member since: Dec 2008
nyc10022, I am loving these trips down memory lane! Keep 'em up!
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
just search "crash" in the box to the left.
I figure the stroll was very relevant, given that I've just in the last few days seen some folk claim things like "no one that anyone took seriously ever said things like THAT [bullish stuff]"... when it was what half the board was saying.
I just figured it would be helpful to see how disingenuous the claims are.
Bears were being wacked down before they were proven right, and the bulls skipped over that whole "whoops, we were wrong part" to "well, we knew that" kind of bs.
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Response by LuchiasDream
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 311
Member since: Apr 2009
No bubble??? LMAO oh what scholars these guys were
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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
Sorry, but that "paper" you're referring to came out in 2002, when what it said was true.
I am no expert, but I am not sure - in NYC, a family working two jobs and making nice money can't afford to buy a decent 2bed these days - that is just not sustainable, I don't think
ny still cheaper then London, tokyo,hong kong
What is "nice money"? What is a "decent apartment"? These are terms that need to be defined. Nice money in some parts of the US is $100K/year/household - in NYC this is chump change.
http://nymag.com/realestate/realestatecolumn/25993/index.html
I love it when people cite New York magazine for real estate advice - as above. While you're at it, turn to the back of the magazine and get some good leads on a boob job and some numbers for a couple transvestite hookers. Quality reporting.
Sorry I've never read that magazine, so don't know about its whole content. I took a look at that link and found it was interesting fact.
Don't be sorry. Mr. Boob Job didn't actually read the article. He just likes to hear himself type.
The article didn't take any editorial stand, just reported on the biggest price drops.
"What bubble?" Um...the huge one that's vanishing before our eyes.
I did read the article, but anybody can find several properties that dropped a lot in price in an attempt to scare people about the market overall. I get NY magazine each week and it thrives on alarmist articles (getting your kids in to NY schools, terror plots, sensational murders, real estate up and down, etc.). My point is that if you want reliable articles on the state of real estate, get it from a reliable source. And the article does effectively take a stance if it only shows one extreme side of the story - the price drops. To be unbiased, they would have to include a piece on properties that do not drop and are sold for ask.
"ny still cheaper then London, tokyo, hong kong"
and our dollar gets weaker by the day.
seriously - people said there was no tech bubble. yet now the industry refers to the internet as web 2.0 - i'm waiting for nyc housing market 2.0
not sure if the NYC will crash...
it's a small island not Phoenix ok?
Only fools are buying now....bubble is bursting just look around!
but we operate in a globe, so as dollar weakens and ny is global - the market becomes more attractive for foreign (esp. european buyers).
"Only fools are buying..."?? Get a life. Some people buy because it makes sense for them - maybe not for you, but it does to them. If you are planning on staying in a place for 5+ years, it makes sense to buy now for many reasons (e.g., tax break, stability, ability to do work in your apt., avoid increasing rents each year, being in a building where people care about it because they own, etc.). One thing is certain - nobody, absolutely nobody, knows when the market will bottom out. If it is there, or close to there, now is a good time. If it keeps going down, that's the "fools" problem, not yours.
a funny ride through history.... "no bubble". Interesting.
nyc10022, I am loving these trips down memory lane! Keep 'em up!
just search "crash" in the box to the left.
I figure the stroll was very relevant, given that I've just in the last few days seen some folk claim things like "no one that anyone took seriously ever said things like THAT [bullish stuff]"... when it was what half the board was saying.
I just figured it would be helpful to see how disingenuous the claims are.
Bears were being wacked down before they were proven right, and the bulls skipped over that whole "whoops, we were wrong part" to "well, we knew that" kind of bs.
No bubble??? LMAO oh what scholars these guys were
Sorry, but that "paper" you're referring to came out in 2002, when what it said was true.